公 司 报 告 2025年08月26日 通策医疗(600763.SH) 正畸业务企稳回升，重现增长动力 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:47.14元 公司发布2025年中报，2025H1公司收入14.48亿元，同比增长2.68%，归母净 利润3.21亿元，同比增长3.67%，扣非归母净利润3.17亿元，同比增长 3.85%。公司单Q2收入7.04亿元，同比增长0.24%，归母净利润1.37亿元，同 比增长0.44%，扣非归母净利润1.35亿元，同比下降0.2%。 平安观点： 证 券 证券分析师 事项： 021-38640502 NIYIDAO242@pingan.com.cn 行情走势图 年 王钰畅 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524090001 WANGYUCHANG804@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,847 | 2,874 | 3,184 | 3,522 | 3,877 | | YOY(%) | 4.7 | 1.0 | ...

业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 23 日，公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。25H1 公司实现 营业收入 14.48 亿元（同比+2.68%），归母净利润 3.21 亿元（同 比+3.66%），扣非归母净利润 3.17 亿元（同比+3.84%）。 单季度来看，25Q2 公司实现收入 7.03 亿元（同比+0.24%），归母 净利润 1.37 亿元（同比+0.47%），扣非归母净利润 1.35 亿元（同 比-0.20%）。 经营分析 业绩平稳增长，正畸业务持续复苏。25H1 公司业绩实现平稳增长， 门诊量达 173.22 万人次（同比+1.21%）。分业务看，正畸业务表 现亮眼，实现收入 2.29 亿元（同比+7.75%），延续了 Q1 的复苏态 势。种植业务收入 2.55 亿元，同比基本持平（同比+0.02%），集 采后"以量补价"效应持续，业务发展稳固。修复（同比+3.59%） 与大综合（同比+2.44%）业务作为基础刚需，为公司提供了可靠的 业绩支撑。儿科业务收入 2.36 亿元，同比下降 1.48%。 "区域总院+分院"模式持续深化，扩张成效显著。25H1 公司旗下 运营医疗机构 89 家，拥有专业医疗 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with a sequential improvement in Q1 growth rates [7] - The company achieved total revenue of 2.874 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 501.43 million yuan, up 0.20% year-on-year [7] - The growth in revenue and profit is driven by stable performance in various business segments, particularly in the implant and comprehensive repair sectors, while orthodontics showed signs of recovery [7] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2.874 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.152 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 9.68% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 501.43 million yuan in 2024 to 561.89 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.06% [1] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.12 yuan in 2024 to 1.26 yuan in 2025 [1] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.80 in 2024 to 31.95 in 2025 [1] Business Performance - The company reported a total outpatient volume of 3.5334 million visits in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.37% [7] - The breakdown of revenue by business segment for 2024 includes: - Implant business revenue of 530 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year - Orthodontics revenue of 470 million yuan, down 5.05% year-on-year - Pediatric business revenue of 500 million yuan, up 0.29% year-on-year - Repair business revenue of 460 million yuan, up 1.53% year-on-year - Comprehensive business revenue of 770 million yuan, up 1.27% year-on-year [7] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 38.5%, with a net profit margin of 19.91% [7] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 44.21%, while the net profit margin increased to 29.02% [7] - The management expense ratio showed a significant decrease, contributing to the overall stability in expense ratios [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 met expectations, with a sequential improvement in Q1 growth rates [7] - The company achieved total revenue of 2.874 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 501.43 million yuan, up 0.20% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights steady growth in the company's implant, repair, and comprehensive services, with orthodontics showing signs of recovery [7] - The gross margin remained stable in 2024, while the net profit margin improved in Q1 2025 [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted downwards due to changes in the macro consumption and industry environment, with expected net profits of 562 million yuan and 633 million yuan respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2.874 billion yuan in 2024, 3.152 billion yuan in 2025, 3.499 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.904 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 501.43 million yuan in 2024, 561.89 million yuan in 2025, 633.14 million yuan in 2026, and 716.43 million yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.12 yuan in 2024, 1.26 yuan in 2025, 1.42 yuan in 2026, and 1.60 yuan in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.80 in 2024 to 25.05 in 2027 [1] Business Segment Performance - The company reported a total outpatient volume of 3.5334 million visits in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.37% [7] - Revenue from the implant business reached 530 million yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year, while orthodontics revenue was 470 million yuan, down 5.05% [7] - The pediatric business generated 500 million yuan, up 0.29%, and the repair business brought in 460 million yuan, up 1.53% [7] - Comprehensive business revenue was 770 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.27% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved revenue and net profit figures for 2024 that were slightly below market expectations, primarily due to external environmental factors affecting patient demand release [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.874 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 501 million, with a year-over-year growth of 1.0% and 0.2% respectively [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 745 million and net profit of 184 million, showing a year-over-year growth of 5.1% and 6.2%, and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 16.2% and 5727.9% [1] - The company expects to see improved performance in 2025 as external conditions improve [1] Business Segments - **Implant Business**: Revenue for 2024 was 530 million, with a year-over-year growth of 10.6%. The company anticipates steady growth in this segment for 2025 due to increasing implant numbers and diverse options [1] - **Orthodontics**: Revenue for 2024 was 474 million, down 5.1% year-over-year. The company expects recovery in this segment as external conditions improve [1] - **Pediatric Dentistry**: Revenue for 2024 was 501 million, with a slight year-over-year increase of 0.3%. The company sees potential for growth in this segment due to rising demand and penetration rates [1] - **Restorative and Comprehensive Services**: Revenue for 2024 was 462 million and 765 million respectively, with year-over-year growth of 1.5% and 1.3%. The company is optimistic about continued growth in these areas [1] Hospital Network and Expansion - **Regional General Hospitals**: In 2024, revenue from Hangkou, Chengxi, and Ningkou hospitals was 548 million, 382 million, and 184 million respectively, with declines in Hangkou and Chengxi attributed to patient resource diversion to the Dandelion branches [2] - **Dandelion Branches**: The company anticipates strong growth in revenue from these branches in 2024 as they mature [2] - **Out-of-Zhejiang Hospitals**: The company is actively expanding its national footprint through a combination of self-built, acquired, and franchised models, with successful projects like the Hunan Loudi Dental Hospital [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 545 million, 587 million, and 631 million, reflecting a downward adjustment of 8% and 11% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] - The company is recognized as a leading profitable dental service provider in the industry, with strong technical capabilities and an expanding service network, leading to a target price adjustment to 54.80 yuan for 2025, corresponding to a 45x PE ratio [3]