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申万宏源:维持小鹏汽车-W(09868)“买入”评级 Q3符合预期 全面转型AI企业
智通财经网· 2025-11-26 03:07
Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "buy" rating for XPeng Motors (09868), citing the launch of new vehicles, exceeding expectations in external collaborations and internal reforms, and significant improvements in profitability, along with potential breakthroughs in robotics and flying car businesses [1] Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 54.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120%; gross margin at 17.9%, up 3.7 percentage points; and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.52 billion, a reduction in loss by 2.94 billion year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 20.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 102% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%; gross margin at 20.1%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; net loss attributable to shareholders was 380 million, a reduction in loss by 1.43 billion year-on-year and 100 million quarter-on-quarter [1] Sales Structure and Margin Analysis - The launch of the XPeng G7 in Q3 2025 accounted for 13% of total sales; however, the sales proportions of G6, G9, and X9 declined due to pre-launch hesitation regarding the range-extended platform, leading to a decrease in automotive gross margin [2] - The company achieved significant growth in service and other revenues, reaching 2.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.3%, which positively impacted overall gross margin [2] - The delivery guidance for Q4 is set at 125,000 to 132,000 units, indicating a potential return to profitability in the quarter [2] User Base Expansion - The introduction of MONA M03 and P7+ has increased monthly sales from 10,000 to 30,000 units, with the G7 pushing XPeng's autonomous driving capabilities to Level 3, marking a new era in smart driving [3] - The X9 range-extended version is expected to launch at the Guangzhou Auto Show, with significant sales growth anticipated in Q4, supported by the addition of range-extended systems across various models [3] AI and Robotics Transformation - The company is redefining future vehicles as next-generation robots, integrating internet platform capabilities, with software expected to account for 50% of the value [4] - The seventh-generation humanoid robot focuses on full-stack self-research and cross-domain integration, with plans for orderly production in the coming months, aiming for a sales price comparable to vehicles [4] - The introduction of a high-efficiency L4 fully shared robotaxi model is expected to enhance commercial competitiveness, indicating a strong potential for monetization as the company transitions into an AI enterprise [4]
申万宏源:维持小鹏汽车-W“买入”评级 Q3符合预期 全面转型AI企业
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-26 03:05
Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan maintains a "Buy" rating for XPeng Motors (09868), highlighting the commencement of a new vehicle cycle, exceeding expectations in external collaborations and internal reforms, significantly enhancing profitability, and potential breakthroughs in robotics and flying car businesses [1] Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 54.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120%; gross margin at 17.9%, up 3.7 percentage points; and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.52 billion, a reduction in loss by 2.94 billion [2] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 20.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 102% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%; gross margin at 20.1%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; net loss attributable to shareholders was 380 million, a reduction in loss by 1.43 billion year-on-year and 100 million quarter-on-quarter [2] Sales Structure and Margin Analysis - The launch of the XPeng G7 in Q3 2025 accounted for 13% of total sales; however, the sales proportion of G6, G9, and X9 declined due to a wait-and-see attitude before the launch of the extended-range platform, leading to a slight decrease in automotive gross margin [3] - The collaboration with Volkswagen resulted in service and other income of 2.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.3%, significantly boosting overall gross margin [3] - The delivery guidance for Q4 is set at 125,000 to 132,000 units, indicating a potential return to profitability in a single quarter [3] Expansion of User Base - The MONA M03 and P7+ models are expected to increase monthly sales from 10,000 to 30,000 units, with the G7 pushing XPeng's autonomous driving capabilities to Level 3, marking a new era in smart driving [4] - The X9 extended-range version is set to launch at the Guangzhou Auto Show, with anticipated significant sales growth in Q4, and future models will be equipped with extended-range systems to drive sales expansion [4] AI and Robotics Transformation - The company is redefining future vehicles as next-generation robots, integrating internet platform capabilities, with software expected to account for 50% of the value [5] - The seventh-generation humanoid robot focuses on full-stack self-research and cross-domain integration, with plans for orderly mass production in the coming months, aiming for a sales price close to that of cars [5] - The introduction of a highly economical L4 fully shared robotaxi model is expected to have competitive commercial logic, enhancing the company's transformation into an AI enterprise with significant monetization potential [5]