行 业 及 产 业 商贸零售 2025 年 12 月 15 日 11 月社零同比+1.3%，服务消费 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 《10 月社零同比+2.9%，服务及餐饮消费 表现亮眼—— 10 月社会零售品消费数据 点评》 2025/11/14 《9 月社零同比+3.0%，服务消费呈现强 韧性—— 9 月社会零售品消费数据点评》 2025/10/21 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张蕴达 A0230125030003 zhangyd@swsresearch.com 联系人 张蕴达 A0230125030003 zhangyd@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 延续强劲增长 看好 ——11 月社会零售品消费数据点评 相关研究 ⚫ 2025 年 11 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 1.3%，低于市场一致预期。11 月促消费政 策进一步细化落实，双十一大促顺利收官，服务消费保持强劲增长释放活力，但在去 ...

Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: brand side, channel side, and long-term global trade dynamics [4][12] - The retail industry is experiencing a K-shaped demand structure, with high-end cultural consumption and rational functional consumption trends emerging [9][21] - The valuation system for consumer growth stocks has evolved through two phases, with a premium placed on growth potential [10][69] Industry Trends - The demand side is characterized by a K-shaped transformation, where cultural and emotional consumption is increasingly premium, while functional consumption emphasizes cost-effectiveness [21][25] - The channel side is transitioning from rapid expansion to refined operations, creating a favorable environment for brand growth [9][68] Valuation System - The consumer growth stocks have developed in two stages: the first from 2016 to 2021 focusing on mid-range upgrades, and the second from 2022 onwards emphasizing high-end optional consumption brands [10][69] - Valuations are anchored to leading consumer stocks, with growth potential receiving relative premiums [10][69] Segment Analysis - In the beauty and personal care sector, brands that align with local aesthetic preferences and offer high cost-performance ratios are favored [11][25] - The gold and jewelry sector is shifting from store expansion to product refinement, with a focus on design and profitability [11][18] - Online retail is stabilizing, with head companies showing potential for growth through capital investments [11][20] - Offline retail is resilient, with supply chain upgrades and standardized services driving growth in supermarkets [11][21] - Cross-border e-commerce remains a promising area, with companies optimizing supply chains to mitigate tariff risks [11][23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends selecting companies with strong consumer insights and operational capabilities in high-end and cost-effective segments [4][12] - It emphasizes the importance of supply chain optimization for companies in the channel sector [4][12] - Long-term prospects for Chinese brands and manufacturing models expanding internationally are highlighted as a significant trend [4][12]