智通财经APP获悉，在美国零售销售额数据公布之后，市场对于美国经济"金发姑娘"式的软着陆预期明显升温，坏 消息则在于市场对于美联储的降息预期继昨日的超预期升温PPI通胀公布之后再度显著降温。有着"恐怖数据"之称 的美国零售销售额数据显示，美国7月零售增长超预期，在汽车销售额强劲增长和大型线上促销活动的带动下，7月 美国零售销售额实现环比增长，表明近几个月以来美国消费者加大支出，提振市场对于美国经济增长的乐观前景。 该数据之所以被市场称为"恐怖数据"，主要是因为该零售销售额数据对于美国宏观经济增长预期至关重要，并且公 布之后容易引起包括股市在内全球金融市场剧烈波动。由于美国GDP大约70%-80%的组成部分是靠消费支出项目所 拉动，所以零售销售额数据对于投资者们判断美国经济现状和前景具有重要指引作用。 美国商务部周五公布的数据显示，未经通胀调整的零售销售额额在6月上修为0.9%的强劲增长之后，7月在6月的强 劲基数上实现符合市场预期的环比增长0.5%，连续两个月实现消费者支出强劲环比增长，同比涨幅则达到超预期的 3.9%。剔除汽车销售额，7月的零售销售额则增长0.3%，同样超过市场预期。 最新的统计数据显示，1 ...

Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: brand side, channel side, and long-term global trade dynamics [4][12] - The retail industry is experiencing a K-shaped demand structure, with high-end cultural consumption and rational functional consumption trends emerging [9][21] - The valuation system for consumer growth stocks has evolved through two phases, with a premium placed on growth potential [10][69] Industry Trends - The demand side is characterized by a K-shaped transformation, where cultural and emotional consumption is increasingly premium, while functional consumption emphasizes cost-effectiveness [21][25] - The channel side is transitioning from rapid expansion to refined operations, creating a favorable environment for brand growth [9][68] Valuation System - The consumer growth stocks have developed in two stages: the first from 2016 to 2021 focusing on mid-range upgrades, and the second from 2022 onwards emphasizing high-end optional consumption brands [10][69] - Valuations are anchored to leading consumer stocks, with growth potential receiving relative premiums [10][69] Segment Analysis - In the beauty and personal care sector, brands that align with local aesthetic preferences and offer high cost-performance ratios are favored [11][25] - The gold and jewelry sector is shifting from store expansion to product refinement, with a focus on design and profitability [11][18] - Online retail is stabilizing, with head companies showing potential for growth through capital investments [11][20] - Offline retail is resilient, with supply chain upgrades and standardized services driving growth in supermarkets [11][21] - Cross-border e-commerce remains a promising area, with companies optimizing supply chains to mitigate tariff risks [11][23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends selecting companies with strong consumer insights and operational capabilities in high-end and cost-effective segments [4][12] - It emphasizes the importance of supply chain optimization for companies in the channel sector [4][12] - Long-term prospects for Chinese brands and manufacturing models expanding internationally are highlighted as a significant trend [4][12]

A 股策略周报 20250511 修复之后，关注变化 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ➢ 经济潜在的走弱即将验证，而对政策期待还需要时间兑现。此前全球大部分 市场基于贸易争端缓和预期的修复是一种短暂的平静，资产的波动率可能将再次 放大。本周中美市场似乎已经摸到"天花板"：A 股、港股都在刚好接近 4 月 2 日水平之前出现回落，美股在修复到 4 月 2 日水平时开始止步不前，两个市场都 需要支撑上涨的进一步证据。A 股自 4 月 2 日以来涨幅前 10 的二级行业平均海 外营收占比是 10%，而跌幅前 10 的二级行业平均海外营收占比是 8%，意味着 A 股的进一步修复要么需要贸易上出现积极改善信号，促使落后的外需型行业反 弹，要么是内部出现增量的扩内需政策。就前者而言，虽然中美经贸高层会谈于 当地时间 10 日上午在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，但从本周美国高调公布的"重大贸 易协议"仅是与英国之间达成了一份模糊的协议来看，要中美之间通过一次会议 接触就拿出一份有重大进展的贸易协议的难度很高，"夹在"中国供给和美国需 求之间的越南股市的较差表现也侧面印证了这一点。就后者而言，中美两国政策 都进入了"自动巡航"的阶段 ...