行 业 及 产 业 商贸零售 2025 年 12 月 15 日 11 月社零同比+1.3%，服务消费 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 《10 月社零同比+2.9%，服务及餐饮消费 表现亮眼—— 10 月社会零售品消费数据 点评》 2025/11/14 《9 月社零同比+3.0%，服务消费呈现强 韧性—— 9 月社会零售品消费数据点评》 2025/10/21 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张蕴达 A0230125030003 zhangyd@swsresearch.com 联系人 张蕴达 A0230125030003 zhangyd@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 延续强劲增长 看好 ——11 月社会零售品消费数据点评 相关研究 ⚫ 2025 年 11 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 1.3%，低于市场一致预期。11 月促消费政 策进一步细化落实，双十一大促顺利收官，服务消费保持强劲增长释放活力，但在去 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba Health reported a revenue of RMB 16.697 billion for the six months ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17% [1] - Gross profit reached RMB 4.184 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year, while net profit surged by 64.7% to RMB 1.266 billion [1] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 1.356 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.7% [1] Revenue and User Growth - The number of merchants on the Tmall Health platform exceeded 56,000, with SKUs increasing by over 97 million [1] - Annual active user numbers and annualized ARPU continued to grow, with platform GMV achieving stable year-on-year growth [1] - The self-operated business revenue reached RMB 14.38 billion, marking an 18.6% increase year-on-year [1] Strategic Collaborations - Alibaba Health partnered with leading pharmaceutical companies such as Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer to launch dozens of new specialty drugs [2] - The company is expanding digital health services through strategic collaborations in online retail, category expansion, and disease education [2] - Over 250,000 healthcare professionals, including licensed physicians and pharmacists, are now providing online health consultation services, an increase of over 20,000 from the previous year [2]

Core Insights - UK retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in September, significantly exceeding market expectations of a 0.2% decline, indicating robust consumer spending [1] - Retail sales volume reached the highest level since July 2022, with a revised increase in August from 0.5% to 0.6%, marking four consecutive months of growth [1] Retail Performance - Non-food store sales rose by 0.9% month-on-month, driven primarily by strong performance in clothing stores, benefiting from favorable weather conditions in July and August [1] - Online retail sales surged to the highest level since February 2022, with a month-on-month increase of 1.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, demonstrating the critical role of digital channels in retail growth [1] Quarterly Analysis - In the third quarter of 2025, retail sales volume increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 1.0% year-on-year, reflecting consumer resilience despite a high interest rate environment [1] - The positive impact of summer weather on outdoor and clothing consumption also boosted online shopping activity, supported by a stable job market and real wage growth [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unexpected growth in U.S. retail sales, which has led to increased optimism about the U.S. economy's "Goldilocks" scenario, characterized by moderate growth and low inflation [1][6][7] - The U.S. retail sales data for July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, following a revised strong growth of 0.9% in June, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, indicating robust consumer spending [1][3][5] - Nine out of thirteen retail categories recorded growth, with significant contributions from auto sales and online promotions, particularly from major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target [3][4] Group 2 - The resilience of consumer spending, as indicated by the retail sales data, may influence the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy, with expectations for interest rate cuts diminishing [4][5] - The retail sales report suggests that the "control group" sales, which are crucial for GDP calculations, also experienced a strong month-on-month growth of 0.5%, reflecting a positive trend in consumer spending [5][6] - Despite the positive retail data, challenges such as rising debt levels, the resumption of student loan repayments, and higher tariffs may still pose risks to consumer spending in the future [8]

Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: brand side, channel side, and long-term global trade dynamics [4][12] - The retail industry is experiencing a K-shaped demand structure, with high-end cultural consumption and rational functional consumption trends emerging [9][21] - The valuation system for consumer growth stocks has evolved through two phases, with a premium placed on growth potential [10][69] Industry Trends - The demand side is characterized by a K-shaped transformation, where cultural and emotional consumption is increasingly premium, while functional consumption emphasizes cost-effectiveness [21][25] - The channel side is transitioning from rapid expansion to refined operations, creating a favorable environment for brand growth [9][68] Valuation System - The consumer growth stocks have developed in two stages: the first from 2016 to 2021 focusing on mid-range upgrades, and the second from 2022 onwards emphasizing high-end optional consumption brands [10][69] - Valuations are anchored to leading consumer stocks, with growth potential receiving relative premiums [10][69] Segment Analysis - In the beauty and personal care sector, brands that align with local aesthetic preferences and offer high cost-performance ratios are favored [11][25] - The gold and jewelry sector is shifting from store expansion to product refinement, with a focus on design and profitability [11][18] - Online retail is stabilizing, with head companies showing potential for growth through capital investments [11][20] - Offline retail is resilient, with supply chain upgrades and standardized services driving growth in supermarkets [11][21] - Cross-border e-commerce remains a promising area, with companies optimizing supply chains to mitigate tariff risks [11][23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends selecting companies with strong consumer insights and operational capabilities in high-end and cost-effective segments [4][12] - It emphasizes the importance of supply chain optimization for companies in the channel sector [4][12] - Long-term prospects for Chinese brands and manufacturing models expanding internationally are highlighted as a significant trend [4][12]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The potential weakening of the economy is about to be validated, and expectations for policy implementation will take time to materialize[1] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have approached a "ceiling" since April 2, indicating a need for further evidence to support upward movement[1] - The average overseas revenue share of the top 10 performing secondary industries in A-shares since April 2 is 10%, while the bottom 10 is 8%, suggesting a need for positive trade signals or internal demand policies for further recovery[1] Group 2: Market Style Shift - The recent regulatory framework encourages a shift towards financial, stable, and large-cap stocks, as evidenced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission's new guidelines[2] - 60.8% of actively managed equity funds have underperformed their benchmarks by over 10% in the past three years, indicating a potential shift to benchmark alignment to avoid underperformance[2] Group 3: Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector's returns are derived from net profit growth, increased dividend payout ratios, and valuation improvements, with traditional consumer assets benefiting from stable business models[3] - Three key areas of focus in the consumer sector include product positioning, changing consumer demographics, and evolving consumption patterns[3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended sectors include consumer industries with stable returns (e.g., home appliances, food and beverages, cosmetics) and undervalued financial sectors (e.g., banks, insurance)[4] - Resource and capital goods sectors (e.g., copper, aluminum, machinery) are expected to hold value in the context of global economic restructuring[4] Group 5: Risk Factors - Risks include domestic economic growth falling short of expectations, potential overseas economic recession, and measurement errors in data analysis[4]