Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to see price stabilization and potential recovery in performance due to government policies against "involution" and recent mergers and acquisitions [1][4]. Short-term Price Stabilization - The express delivery industry has maintained a double-digit growth rate in volume since 2025, with an expected growth rate of 15% for the year. However, due to intense price competition among leading companies, the performance of franchise express companies has declined in Q1 2025, and this trend may continue into Q2 2025 [2][3]. Policy Background and Price Recovery - Under the guidance of local postal authorities, express delivery prices in certain grain-producing areas have shown signs of stabilization. As the off-peak season ends and the peak season begins in September, a broader price recovery is anticipated, which may alleviate the pressure on franchise operators and improve overall industry sentiment. A price increase of 0.1 yuan is estimated to increase net profit per share by 0.0375 yuan for listed companies [3][4]. Long-term Competitive Ecology Optimization - On July 25, Shentong announced a cash acquisition of 100% of Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan. This move aims to create a dual business matrix of "economical express + quality express," optimizing product structure and capturing new market opportunities. The State Post Bureau has been encouraging mergers and acquisitions in the express delivery sector, which is expected to lead to a healthier industry structure and improved competitive ecology, presenting investment opportunities [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Despite significant operational pressure in the express delivery sector in H1 2025, the potential for performance recovery in the short term and competitive ecology optimization in the long term suggests that express companies may see improved results. Recommendations include Jitu Express, Shentong, YTO Express, Zhongtong, and Yunda Express due to their respective growth prospects and market positions [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shentong Express plans to acquire 100% equity of Daniao Logistics for a cash consideration of 362 million yuan, which is a strategic move to enhance its service offerings in the high-end express delivery market [1][3]. - Daniao Logistics, a subsidiary of Cainiao Group, specializes in quality express delivery and reverse logistics services, operating a network that covers nearly 300 cities in China and providing high-certainty delivery services such as same-day and next-morning delivery [2][3]. - The acquisition will allow Shentong to form a dual business matrix of "economical express + quality express," enabling it to capture emerging opportunities in regional distribution and instant retail while optimizing its product structure for a differentiated advantage [3][4]. Group 2 - Daniao Logistics is projected to achieve over 12 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a significantly higher average revenue per package compared to Shentong, indicating a complementary business positioning between the two companies [3]. - The acquisition aligns with the recent regulatory push against cutthroat competition in the express delivery industry, as Shentong aims to transition from price competition to value competition, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [4]. - Shentong plans to implement advanced delivery solutions, including deploying 2,000 unmanned vehicles to strengthen its end-delivery capabilities, which is part of its strategy to deepen value creation in response to industry trends [4]. Group 3 - The forecast for Shentong Express indicates a potential increase in market share and profitability due to capacity enhancements and industry growth, with projected net profits of 1.29 billion, 1.6 billion, and 2.01 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [5]. - The company is expected to face challenges in profitability due to intense price competition in 2025, which may impact its earnings despite the anticipated growth in business volume [5].