短期看价格回稳 2025年以来行业延续双位数件量增速，预期今年仍有望实现15%的行业增速。但由于龙头公司份额诉求 强烈，行业价格竞争更加激烈，25Q1加盟快递企业业绩有所下滑。预计25Q2部分快递公司仍延续下滑 趋势，加盟商经营持续承压。 反内卷政策背景下，部分产粮区在当地邮管局的政策指导下，快递价格有望修复 浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，根据罗戈网，近期部分产粮区在当地邮管局的领导下，基于反内卷背 景，快递价格有所回稳。随着淡季结束，9月旺季到来，有望看到价格更大范围企稳回升，从而加盟商 经营承压或将改善，快递业绩及板块情绪有望实现阶段性修复。此外，申通近日收购丹鸟拉开了快递行 业在国家反内卷背景下资源整合的序幕，中长期看，国家邮政局鼓励快递企业兼并重组，快递行业结构 趋于健康，竞争生态优化，有望带来板块性的投资机会。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 事件：2025年7月1日，中央财经委会议再次强调"治理企业低价无序竞争"的问题，2025年7月8日，国家 邮政局党组召开会议，会议强调按照"五统一、一开放"基本要求，进一步加强行业监管，完善邮政快递 领域市场制度规则，旗帜鲜明反对"内卷式"竞争，依法依规整治末端 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shentong Express plans to acquire 100% equity of Daniao Logistics for a cash consideration of 362 million yuan, which is a strategic move to enhance its service offerings in the high-end express delivery market [1][3]. - Daniao Logistics, a subsidiary of Cainiao Group, specializes in quality express delivery and reverse logistics services, operating a network that covers nearly 300 cities in China and providing high-certainty delivery services such as same-day and next-morning delivery [2][3]. - The acquisition will allow Shentong to form a dual business matrix of "economical express + quality express," enabling it to capture emerging opportunities in regional distribution and instant retail while optimizing its product structure for a differentiated advantage [3][4]. Group 2 - Daniao Logistics is projected to achieve over 12 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a significantly higher average revenue per package compared to Shentong, indicating a complementary business positioning between the two companies [3]. - The acquisition aligns with the recent regulatory push against cutthroat competition in the express delivery industry, as Shentong aims to transition from price competition to value competition, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [4]. - Shentong plans to implement advanced delivery solutions, including deploying 2,000 unmanned vehicles to strengthen its end-delivery capabilities, which is part of its strategy to deepen value creation in response to industry trends [4]. Group 3 - The forecast for Shentong Express indicates a potential increase in market share and profitability due to capacity enhancements and industry growth, with projected net profits of 1.29 billion, 1.6 billion, and 2.01 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [5]. - The company is expected to face challenges in profitability due to intense price competition in 2025, which may impact its earnings despite the anticipated growth in business volume [5].