短期看价格回稳 2025年以来行业延续双位数件量增速，预期今年仍有望实现15%的行业增速。但由于龙头公司份额诉求 强烈，行业价格竞争更加激烈，25Q1加盟快递企业业绩有所下滑。预计25Q2部分快递公司仍延续下滑 趋势，加盟商经营持续承压。 反内卷政策背景下，部分产粮区在当地邮管局的政策指导下，快递价格有望修复 浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，根据罗戈网，近期部分产粮区在当地邮管局的领导下，基于反内卷背 景，快递价格有所回稳。随着淡季结束，9月旺季到来，有望看到价格更大范围企稳回升，从而加盟商 经营承压或将改善，快递业绩及板块情绪有望实现阶段性修复。此外，申通近日收购丹鸟拉开了快递行 业在国家反内卷背景下资源整合的序幕，中长期看，国家邮政局鼓励快递企业兼并重组，快递行业结构 趋于健康，竞争生态优化，有望带来板块性的投资机会。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 事件：2025年7月1日，中央财经委会议再次强调"治理企业低价无序竞争"的问题，2025年7月8日，国家 邮政局党组召开会议，会议强调按照"五统一、一开放"基本要求，进一步加强行业监管，完善邮政快递 领域市场制度规则，旗帜鲜明反对"内卷式"竞争，依法依规整治末端 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing consolidation in the express delivery sector, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, aiming to enhance its market position and differentiate itself from competitors [5] - The report emphasizes the recovery in air travel demand and the potential for long-term growth in the aviation sector, driven by macroeconomic improvements and a favorable supply-demand dynamic [13] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from rising oil transport demand due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with a positive outlook for dry bulk shipping as well [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - Shentong Express is set to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its market share by 0.8 percentage points and improve brand influence [5] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historical lows, limiting further downside [13] - Key companies to watch include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, which are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control [13] Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing low long-term supply growth, but demand is anticipated to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [13] - The report notes that the overall passenger transport volume in civil aviation reached 370 million in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6% [7] - Key companies to focus on include China Southern Airlines, Air China, and HNA Group [13] Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a new high of 2258 points, up 119% year-to-date, driven by improved consumption expectations and seasonal factors [9] - The report suggests a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment [14] - Companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [14] Ports - China's port cargo throughput increased by 2.43% week-on-week, reaching 26.677 million tons, while container throughput rose by 2.61% to 6.64 million TEU [12][77] - The report highlights the stable cash flow and growth potential of port operations, suggesting a focus on companies like Tangshan Port and Qingdao Port [14] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volume increasing by 1.11% and highway freight traffic up by 0.67% [12] - The report indicates that road passenger traffic decreased by 3.92%, while freight volume increased by 2.86% [45]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shentong Express plans to acquire 100% equity of Daniao Logistics for a cash consideration of 362 million yuan, which is a strategic move to enhance its service offerings in the high-end express delivery market [1][3]. - Daniao Logistics, a subsidiary of Cainiao Group, specializes in quality express delivery and reverse logistics services, operating a network that covers nearly 300 cities in China and providing high-certainty delivery services such as same-day and next-morning delivery [2][3]. - The acquisition will allow Shentong to form a dual business matrix of "economical express + quality express," enabling it to capture emerging opportunities in regional distribution and instant retail while optimizing its product structure for a differentiated advantage [3][4]. Group 2 - Daniao Logistics is projected to achieve over 12 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a significantly higher average revenue per package compared to Shentong, indicating a complementary business positioning between the two companies [3]. - The acquisition aligns with the recent regulatory push against cutthroat competition in the express delivery industry, as Shentong aims to transition from price competition to value competition, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [4]. - Shentong plans to implement advanced delivery solutions, including deploying 2,000 unmanned vehicles to strengthen its end-delivery capabilities, which is part of its strategy to deepen value creation in response to industry trends [4]. Group 3 - The forecast for Shentong Express indicates a potential increase in market share and profitability due to capacity enhancements and industry growth, with projected net profits of 1.29 billion, 1.6 billion, and 2.01 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [5]. - The company is expected to face challenges in profitability due to intense price competition in 2025, which may impact its earnings despite the anticipated growth in business volume [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shentong Express plans to acquire 100% equity of Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan to enhance its quality express delivery services and optimize resource integration [2][7]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves Shentong Express's wholly-owned subsidiary and is classified as a related party transaction, but not a major asset restructuring [2]. - Daniao Logistics is primarily owned by Zhejiang Cainiao Supply Chain, which holds 96.15% of the shares [3]. Group 2: Industry Overview - The express delivery industry has seen significant growth, with a projected completion of 175.08 billion packages in 2024, marking a 21.5% year-on-year increase [5]. - The total revenue for the express delivery sector is expected to reach 1.4 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 13.8% increase [5]. - The average price per express delivery package is forecasted to be 8.01 yuan, down 6.33% year-on-year, indicating a trend of declining product prices [5]. Group 3: Strategic Intent - Shentong Express aims to integrate resources and optimize product structure to build a differentiated competitive advantage through this acquisition [7]. - The company emphasizes the need for supply-side structural reforms in the industry to enhance service quality and efficiency while avoiding disorderly competition [6]. Group 4: Daniao Logistics Profile - Daniao Logistics, established in 2009, has a registered capital of 498 million yuan and provides services such as pickup, transit delivery, and reverse logistics for major e-commerce platforms [7]. - The company operates a mature quality express network with 59 distribution centers and over 2,600 service points across the country [7]. - In 2024, Daniao Logistics is expected to handle over 4 million high-value orders daily, generating revenues of 12.351 billion yuan [7]. Group 5: Financial Performance - Shentong Express reported a total revenue of 47.169 billion yuan for 2024, a 15.26% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, up 205.24% [9]. - In Q1 2025, the company continued its growth trajectory with revenues of 11.999 billion yuan, an 18.43% increase, and a net profit of 236 million yuan, up 24.04% [10]. Group 6: Market Reaction - Following the acquisition announcement, Shentong Express's stock price surged to 15.14 yuan per share, reaching a new high since 2021, with a total market capitalization of 23.18 billion yuan [8]. - The stock has seen a cumulative increase of 41.63% in July [8].