Core Insights - The white liquor wholesale industry in Deyang, located in the core area of the "U-shaped brewing belt," is characterized by a strong industrial cluster, housing over 80 large-scale liquor enterprises and producing nearly 200,000 kiloliters of high-quality liquor annually [1][3] - The market exhibits distinct segmentation, with high-end local brands capturing a significant market share, while mid-range and low-end products dominate their respective segments [3][4] - Traditional wholesale markets remain crucial, but new channels such as online platforms and live streaming are gaining traction, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior [4][5] Industry Overview - Deyang accounts for over 85% of the city's white liquor production capacity, supported by a complete industrial chain from raw material cultivation to packaging production and logistics [3] - The largest packaging base in Southwest China is located in Shifang, providing a one-stop procurement solution that reduces overall costs by over 15% for wholesalers [3] - The local market is a significant distribution center for liquor in Northwest Sichuan, with over 300 merchants covering a wide range of product categories [3] Market Demand - The high-end market sees local premium brands achieving annual sales of up to 200 million yuan, capturing 40% of the market share alongside national brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [3] - Mid-range products priced below 500 yuan are popular for business gatherings and banquets, with Jian Nan Chun holding a competitive position in this segment [4] - The low-end market, dominated by products priced below 60 yuan, sees daily sales of over ten bottles for brands like Mianzhu Daqu and Shunpin Lang, catering to local restaurants and households [4] Challenges and Strategies - The market is currently facing challenges such as a reduced market size of 2 billion yuan compared to peak levels, difficulties in sales, high inventory, and price discrepancies [5] - The rise of e-commerce and live streaming has shifted some retail customers to online purchases, impacting traditional wholesale channels [5] - Local wholesalers are adapting by strengthening customer relationships, utilizing financial products to ease cash flow issues, and focusing on the 100-300 yuan price range for competitive positioning [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent leaked shareholder meeting materials of Sichuan Jian Nan Chun Co., Ltd. have raised questions about the company's actual operating status and future prospects, highlighting its struggles to regain past glory in the competitive liquor market [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Jian Nan Chun is projected to achieve revenue of 10.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with liquor sales contributing 10.53 billion yuan, up 15.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.06 billion yuan, growing by 17.9% [3]. - In 2023, Jian Nan Chun reported revenue of 9.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.58% [3]. Challenges and Goals - Jian Nan Chun aims to reach a revenue target of 30 billion yuan by 2025, a goal that appears increasingly unattainable given its current performance and market conditions [4]. - The company ranked 25th in the 2024 Sichuan Province's top 100 private enterprises with a revenue of 16.94 billion yuan, showing a modest growth rate of 3.74% [4]. Market Position and Competition - Jian Nan Chun's market position has weakened, as evidenced by its absence from key industry events, indicating a decline in its competitive standing compared to leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [4][6]. - The company has invested significantly in expanding production capacity, including a 3 billion yuan investment in the Datang National Liquor Ecological Park project, but faces challenges in a saturated market where demand is not keeping pace with supply [6]. Product Dependency and Pricing Issues - The core product, "Crystal Sword," remains a significant revenue driver, accounting for over 70% of total sales, but faces intense competition in the 400 yuan price range [7][9]. - Recent pricing pressures have led to significant discounts on "Crystal Sword" in e-commerce platforms, undermining brand value and creating challenges for the distribution network [9]. Historical Challenges and Future Outlook - Jian Nan Chun has struggled with historical issues, including management instability and missed opportunities for growth, which have hindered its ability to capitalize on market recovery [10][12]. - The company has proposed an aggressive dividend plan, distributing 3 billion yuan, which raises concerns about prioritizing family financial needs over strategic investments for growth [12][13].