2026 年 3 月 4 日 总量研究 如何科学评价"春节月"的 PMI？ ——2026 年 3 月 4 日利率债观察 要点 1、如何科学评价"春节月"的 PMI？ 2026 年 2 月，制造业 PMI 为 49.0%，比前一月下降 0.3 个百分点，这主要是受 春节假期等因素影响。一般来说，春节前后制造业市场活跃度会有所下降，这是 正常的日历效应。 值得注意的是，历年春节假期的时间不同，因此 1 月与 2 月所受到的春节假期 因素的影响程度也不同。例如，2026 年春节假期始于 2 月 15 日，而 2023 年、 2024 年和 2025 年分别始于该年的 1 月 21 日、2 月 10 日和 1 月 28 日。 平抑春节假期所造成影响的一个办法是将 1 月与 2 月的数值进行平均。今年 1 月和 2 月制造业 PMI 的均值为 49.15%，较今年 2 月的数值提高了 0.15 个百分 点。 传统方法是依照 PMI 是否超过 50%判断。当制造业 PMI 高于 50%时，反映经济 总体较上月扩张，当低于 50%时，则反映经济总体较上月收缩。但是，近些年 中的大多数时间中，制造业 PMI 皆是低于 50% ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, down 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points respectively, both below the critical point [3] - The production index was 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production [3] - The new orders index was 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [3] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, indicating a continued decrease in major raw material inventories [3] - The employment index was 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a slight decline in employment conditions within manufacturing [3] - The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating that supplier delivery times continued to accelerate [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [6] - The construction industry business activity index was 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, while the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points [8] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.1%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand [13] - The input prices index was 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating stable input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [13] - The sales prices index was 48.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing decline in sales prices [13] - The employment index was 46.1%, stable from the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions in non-manufacturing [13] - The business activity expectation index was 56.0%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining in a high optimism range [14] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - In January, the Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 49.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a general slowdown in production and business activities compared to the previous month [18]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points [4] - The production index was 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating accelerated production expansion, while the new orders index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, suggesting improved market demand [4] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Components - The raw material inventory index was 48.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating a continued narrowing of the decline in raw material inventory levels [4] - The employment index was 48.5%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved employment sentiment in manufacturing [4] - The supplier delivery time index was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating faster delivery times from suppliers [4] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In September, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in non-manufacturing business volume [8] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points [10] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing PMI Components - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand [14] - The input prices index was 49.0%, down 1.3 percentage points, suggesting a decrease in the overall level of input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [14] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in employment sentiment [16] Group 5: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued acceleration in overall production and business activities [19]