2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 9 月 PMI：两连升成色几何？ 2025 年 09 月 30 日 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 这也在一定程度上解释了为何在"反内卷"政策下，9 月 PMI 生产指数却逆势上 升 1.1pct 至 51.9%。同时为了应对长假前的"抢工补产"以及长假后即将到来 的"双十一"，制造业企业的用工需求明显上升，PMI 从业人员指数也上升 0.6pct 至 48.5%。 ➢ 除此之外，9 月出口形势不宜过分低估。刚出炉的 PMI 数据，有三条线索 均指向 9 月出口压力边际缓释：其一，9 月 PMI 新出口订单指数环比上升 0.6pct 至 47.8%，这也是 4 月底"对等关税"以来 PMI 新出口订单指数录得的最高值； 其二，相较于大中型企业，9 月与外贸景气度联系更紧密的小型企业 PMI 指数， 其弹升幅度最为明显；其三，调查样本以沿海地区小微企业居多的 RatingDog 制造业 PMI，从 8 月的 50.5%上升至 9 月的 51.2%。 ➢ 不过，经济运行的结构性压力，在 9 月 PMI 成绩 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 9月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为48.8%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI 为48.2%，比上月上升1.6个百分点，仍低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临 界点。 生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，表明制造业生产扩张加快。 新订单指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气水平继续改善。 原材料库存指数为48.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅继续收窄。 从业人员指数为48.5%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度改善。 供应商配送时间指数为50.8%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间持续加快。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The PMI for large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points [4] - The production index was 50.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production expansion in the manufacturing sector [4] Group 2: New Orders and Inventory - The new orders index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in market demand within the manufacturing sector [5] - The raw materials inventory index was 48.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, still below the critical point, suggesting a narrowing decline in major raw material inventory levels [6] - The employment index was 47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight decline in employment sentiment among manufacturing enterprises [7] Group 3: Supplier Delivery and Non-Manufacturing PMI - The supplier delivery time index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating that the delivery times from raw material suppliers are continuing to improve [8] - In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [12] - The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, while the services industry index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points [15] Group 4: Employment and Price Indices in Non-Manufacturing - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating improved market demand [19] - The input price index was 50.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating that input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises continue to rise [19] - The sales price index was 48.6%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in overall sales prices in the non-manufacturing sector [19] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index for August was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across industries [25]

新华财经北京7月31日电国家统计局31日发布2025年7月中国采购经理指数运行情况。7月份，制造业采 购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；非制造业商务活动 指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，仍高于临界点。 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.3%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为49.5%， 比上月上升0.9个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI为46.4%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点， 新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。 生产指数为50.5%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，仍高于临界点，表明制造业生产延续扩张。 新订单指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所放缓。 原材料库存指数为47.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量继续减少。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report presents the July 2025 China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data released on July 31 by the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing [1] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment [2] - Large - scale enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises had a PMI of 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - scale enterprises had a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] - Among the five sub - indices of manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it [2] - The production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, showing continued expansion in manufacturing production; the new order index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in market demand; the raw material inventory index was 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, meaning a continued decrease in the inventory of major raw materials; the employment index was 48.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight improvement in employment sentiment; the supplier delivery time index was 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating faster delivery times [2] Group 3: Non - manufacturing PMI - In July, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still above the critical point [3] - The construction industry business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points; the service industry business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points [3] - Industries such as railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, and culture, sports, and entertainment were in the high - prosperity range above 60.0%, while the real estate and resident service industries were below the critical point [3] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI - In July, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that overall business production and operation activities in China maintained an expansion trend [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][22]. - The production index was 51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production activities in the manufacturing sector [6][23]. - The new orders index reached 50.2%, rising by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting an improvement in market demand for manufactured goods [7][23]. Group 2: Enterprise Size Analysis - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, indicating robust performance [4][24]. - Medium-sized enterprises had a PMI of 48.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points, but still below the critical threshold [4][24]. - Small enterprises saw a decline in PMI to 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points, indicating weaker performance [4][24]. Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [11][26]. - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in construction activities [13][26]. - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, indicating stability but with some sectors experiencing reduced activity [13][26]. Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [21][27]. - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to this comprehensive index, standing at 51.0% and 50.5% respectively [27].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In May, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points [1] - The production index was at 50.7%, rising 0.9 percentage points, indicating an acceleration in production activities [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sub-Indices - The new orders index was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in market demand [2] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in inventory levels [2] - The employment index was 48.1%, up 0.2 percentage points, reflecting an improvement in employment conditions within the manufacturing sector [2] - The supplier delivery time index was at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating stable delivery times compared to the previous month [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In May, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The construction industry business activity index was 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points [8] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sub-Indices - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.1%, up 1.2 percentage points, indicating a rebound in market demand [10] - The input prices index was 48.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, suggesting that input prices remained below the previous month's level [10] - The sales prices index was 47.3%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in sales prices [10] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.5%, stable compared to the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions [10] Group 5: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.4% in May, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating that production and business activities continued to expand overall [15]