Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the weakening of the US dollar and the improvement of risk appetite led to a steeper curve overseas, while in China, loose funds drove the yield curve to steepen. The bond market remained volatile due to the supply - demand contradiction at the long end [2]. - In 2026, the PPI is facing three positive factors: the tail - lifting factor, imported inflation, and the continued effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. Under the neutral scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. The mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors to significantly affect the bond market [3][55]. - Currently, the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. There are some structural opportunities, such as the follow - up rise opportunity of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression opportunity of credit spreads [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: December 2025 - Curve Steepening Driven by Overseas and Domestic Factors Overseas - In December 2025, the Fed announced reserve management - style purchases (RMP) and continued to cut interest rates. The US dollar index weakened, liquidity improved, the US stock market rose, and risk appetite recovered. The US bond yield curve steepened due to factors like Fed's short - term bond purchase, market concerns about Fed independence, and rising commodity prices. Precious and industrial metals performed well, with copper benefiting from AI demand and gold and silver supported by geopolitical events [10][16]. Domestic - In November 2025, the domestic economic fundamentals showed a divergence between quantity and price, and in December, both supply and demand declined. The capital market was generally loose, and the overnight interest rate hit a new low for the year. The bond market remained volatile due to the long - end supply - demand contradiction, and the yield curve steepened [17][23]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks and insurance companies, as allocation players, increased their bond - buying in the secondary market in December. Large banks added some policy - related financial bonds and focused on 5 - 7 - year varieties. Insurance companies mainly added long - term treasury bonds. Trading players became conservative. Rural commercial banks mainly invested in certificates of deposit, funds reduced duration and mainly sold long - term treasury bonds, and wealth management products seasonally reduced bond allocation and slightly increased credit bond allocation [26][35][47]. PART2: How the 2026 Re - inflation Narrative May Affect the Bond Market 2026 PPI's Three Positive Factors - The tail - lifting factor can support the PPI to turn positive in the second half of 2026 even without new price - increasing factors [55]. - Imported inflation may occur as overseas capital expenditure and manufacturing investment are likely to rise in 2026. The US deficit rate may expand, and the Fed's new round of easing may release emerging market countries' capital expenditure demand [57]. - The "anti - involution" policy has shown a supporting effect on the PPI. Since August 2025, the month - on - month PPI of the mining industry has turned positive, driving the overall PPI to turn positive since October [60]. PPI Forecast under Different Scenarios - Under the pessimistic scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2026 with an average monthly PPI growth rate of 0%. Under the neutral scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.1%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.2%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in April 2026 and exceed 2% in the second half of the year [67]. PPI's Impact on the Bond Market - Historically, during the four PPI upward cycles since 2009, three typical upward periods were driven by the resonance of domestic and overseas demand or supply - demand. The PPI and the bond market generally move in the same direction, but there were several periods of divergence, mainly due to strong economic recovery expectations or PPI being mainly affected by the supply side while the domestic demand did not improve significantly and the monetary policy remained loose [69][71]. - In 2026, the mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors such as total demand, central bank's capital management, financial institutions' liability - side stability, and the flow of activated household deposits to significantly affect the bond market. The trading of typical total assets based on re - inflation may have limited odds [78]. PART3: Bond Market Strategy for January 2026 - In January 2026, the bond market may still be in a wait - and - see period. Potential risks include government bond supply pressure, the spring rally in the equity market, and the first - quarter credit boom. Potential positive factors include the possible relaxation of large banks' bond - allocation pressure and the relatively loose capital market, with a higher probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut than an interest - rate cut in January [81]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. Structurally, there are opportunities such as the follow - up rise of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression of credit spreads in credit bonds [4][83].

Key Insights - The report indicates a slight increase in credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 1.53 trillion yuan in November, up by 217.79 billion yuan from the previous month, and a net financing increase of 170.24 billion yuan to 387.49 billion yuan [4][39] - The overall bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern due to a combination of economic fundamentals, policy expectations, and institutional behaviors, with a focus on maintaining a neutral duration strategy and enhancing portfolio flexibility [4][9][12] - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of pressure, with fixed asset investment growth declining by 2.6% and retail sales growth decreasing by 1.6 percentage points to 1.3% [7][9] Market Review - In November, the rolling default rate in the bond market was 0.20%, with one new default from the real estate sector, specifically from Aoyuan Group, which faced liquidity issues [16][18] - The manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.2, indicating a still-contractionary environment, while the central bank's liquidity operations net withdrew 375.9 billion yuan [25][30] - The secondary market saw a general increase in bond yields, with 10-year government bond yields rising by 4 basis points to 1.84% [8][39] Credit Risk and Issuance - The report highlights that credit risk remains manageable, with a total of 118 high-yield bonds issued in November, amounting to 52.84 billion yuan, and a significant increase in trading volume [5][39] - The issuance costs for credit bonds generally decreased, with rates falling between 4 to 22 basis points across various types [39][42] - The report notes that the credit spread for medium-term notes widened, particularly for 1-3 year maturities, while 5-year maturities saw a narrowing of spreads [24][39] Regional and Sectoral Insights - The report indicates that Beijing had the highest credit bond issuance at 492.4 billion yuan, with Guangdong and Shanghai also showing significant issuance [44][46] - The infrastructure financing sector saw a total issuance of 347.6 billion yuan, while the financial sector had the highest net inflow of 142.4 billion yuan [43][46] - The average issuance rates varied by industry, with the information technology sector experiencing a notable increase of 93 basis points, while the cultural industry saw a decrease of 69 basis points [43][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent adjustment in the bond market is likely to be more of a short - term phenomenon, mainly influenced by policy expectations, sentiment, and supply - demand factors in the short term. In the long run, the bond market logic will return to the fundamentals and the capital situation. - In 2026, the core operating range of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may be between 1.7% - 1.9%, and it may maintain low - level fluctuations. Credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but the contraction amplitude may be limited [5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Interest - rate bonds**: Since November, the yield curve has become steeper, with the adjustment pressure concentrated on the long - end. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields have fluctuated upward, with the 30 - year yield rising more significantly. The 1 - year yield has been relatively stable. The amplitude of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds since November has been 6bp, 8bp, and 14bp respectively, and the key term spreads have expanded [5][8]. - **Credit bonds**: The adjustment of credit bonds has been relatively lagging, and credit spreads have slightly widened passively. The credit bond yields first fluctuated upward, with medium - and high - grade yields rising more, and then all grades of yields declined to varying degrees. Credit bonds have recovered faster. As of December 22, the AA - grade bond yield has decreased by 9bp compared to early November, and the interest rates of higher - grade 3 - year medium - and short - term notes are similar to those at the beginning of November. Most credit spreads have widened passively, and they are still at historically low levels [5][11]. Adjustment Reasons - **Weak sentiment**: Before important policy meetings, the market entered an observation period, and there was uncertainty about policies such as next year's fiscal strength. The central bank's insufficient liquidity injection and the real - estate enterprise credit event also disturbed market sentiment [5][14]. - **Cautious institutional behavior**: Near the end of the year, under external constraints such as assessment pressure and regulatory policies, institutions' redemption and profit - taking intentions increased, and the willingness to buy was insufficient. The expectation of public - fund fee reform also led to bond - fund position adjustment and selling [5][16]. - **Supply - demand imbalance**: The supply of long - term bonds has increased while the demand has decreased. The supply of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds has increased, especially the supply of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds, while the ability of banks, insurance companies, and other institutions to absorb them is limited, and the demand from funds and other trading players has declined [5][18]. - **Insensitive to economic data**: The market has been insensitive to weak economic data, and the fundamentals have not dominated the recent interest - rate trend. The economic data has continued to show weak recovery, but the market has anticipated it in advance, and the inflation rebound has also suppressed sentiment [5][20]. Future Outlook - **Interest - rate bonds**: In 2026, the macro - policy will maintain a supportive tone of "loose money + loose finance". The weak economic recovery and abundant liquidity environment do not support a significant upward trend in bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may operate in the range of 1.7% - 1.9%, but it may fluctuate due to challenges in demand and institutional behavior. Uncertain factors such as continued weakening of the fundamentals, intensified geopolitical evolution, and the implementation of fund - fee reform need to be vigilant [22][23][24]. - **Credit bonds**: Under the moderately loose monetary policy and the "asset shortage" situation, credit spreads may continue to narrow slightly, but considering that they are already at historically low levels, the contraction amplitude may be limited [25].

Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - The U.S. labor market remains in a weak balance, with inflation showing signs of slowing down, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates again in December. The Fed's cautious stance indicates only one rate cut is expected in 2026, which is less than market predictions [2][3] - In Europe, a weak economic recovery is coupled with the European Central Bank's increased tolerance for inflation, leading to market expectations of a rate hike in 2026 [3] - Domestic consumption and investment are slowing due to high bases and weak expectations, while external demand remains strong, particularly in export-oriented sectors. Structural support for service consumption is anticipated as policies support recovery [3][3] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for stable economic growth and quality improvement, with a focus on the integrated effects of monetary and fiscal policies. A reserve requirement ratio cut is expected to be implemented first, with interest rate cuts being more structural [3][3] Fixed Income Research - Panda bonds, which are RMB-denominated bonds issued by foreign entities in China, have seen their market scale exceed 1.14 trillion RMB, reflecting the ongoing internationalization of the RMB and the opening of China's bond market [6][6] - The panda bond market has evolved through three stages: initial exploration (2005-2013), development with increased participation (2014-2022), and rapid expansion and product innovation (2023-present) [6][6] - Panda bonds offer lower financing costs compared to offshore dollar bonds and provide flexibility in fund usage, while also serving as a risk diversification tool for investors [7][7] - As of December 5, 2025, there are 263 panda bonds with a market size of 414.886 billion RMB, indicating a significant increase in issuance driven by policy optimization [7][7] Industry Research - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables procurement has been initiated, with significant developments including the approval of a domestic anti-CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody and the introduction of a weight-loss version of semaglutide for cardiovascular indications [11][11] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.66% during the week of December 19-25, 2025, with the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increasing by 1.43% [11][11] - The report suggests focusing on pharmaceutical companies whose products enter medical insurance and the investment opportunities arising from structural optimization in innovative drug payments, as well as the progress in the medical device sector following the initiation of high-value consumables procurement [12][12]

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Group 1: Overview of the Economic Fundamentals - The household sector's assets include financial and non-financial assets, accounting for 49.2% and 50.8% respectively as of 2022, with urban housing being the largest component, consistently over 40% [3][19] - The real estate market recovery is expected to go through three phases: a rebound in transaction volume, followed by price recovery, and finally stabilization of investment [3][23] - The leverage ratios of the three sectors show structural differentiation, with the household sector stabilizing around 60%, non-financial enterprises increasing to 174.4%, and government sector leverage rising steadily [12][34] Group 2: Policy Trends from Monetary Reports - Since July 2024, the central bank has introduced various monetary policy tools focusing on quantity and price adjustments, with a notable reduction in the 7-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points in May 2025 [4] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose liquidity policy in 2026, with a baseline scenario of 1-2 rate cuts of 25-50 basis points and 1-2 reserve requirement ratio reductions of 50-100 basis points [4][6] - The relationship between deposit and loan rates is crucial, as the net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased from 1.97% in Q1 2022 to 1.42% in Q3 2025, indicating a need for careful policy adjustments [4] Group 3: Bond Investment from Relative Value Perspective - The 1Y government bond yield is expected to remain around 1.4%, with the 10Y government bond yield projected at approximately 1.7% [6] - The yield curve may steepen in the first half of 2026 due to anticipated rate cuts, while uncertainties in the second half will depend on the effectiveness of policies aimed at economic recovery [6][28] - Current relative value assessments indicate that the attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds has weakened, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy [6] Group 4: Corporate Sector Analysis - The leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises has increased from 155% in Q1 2022 to 174.4% in Q3 2025, but internal financing demand remains weak [34] - The ratio of medium to long-term loans to short-term loans and bill financing is low, indicating a focus on short-term liquidity rather than long-term investment expansion [34] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address the issue of rising revenues without corresponding profit increases, with early signs of effectiveness in improving capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors [40] Group 5: Government Sector Financial Overview - The fiscal deficit is projected to be around 12.6 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of approximately 8.5%, indicating a trend of expanding government balance sheets [3][45] - Tax revenue is expected to reach approximately 17.6 trillion yuan in 2025, with a forecast of 18.2 trillion yuan for 2026 based on historical growth rates [49] - Government spending is categorized into various sectors, with social welfare and infrastructure spending being the largest components, accounting for 38% and 23% respectively in 2024 [57]