专题研究 2025 年 半 年 报 （2025 年 7 月） 买断式逆回购首次月初预告，流动性改 善关注短端利率机会 中美关税博弈阶段性缓和，短期内收益率 或阶段性上行，2025 年 5 月 新一轮增量金融政策的四大关注——5 月7 号国新办发布会点评，2025 年 5 月 利率债研究 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 王 晨 chwang01@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 研究院院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 全面降准或率先落地，关税博弈下收益率 高波动或延续，2025 年 4 月 三问 2025 年特别国债——全国两会精神 学习系列之三，2025 年 3 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731； gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 大而美法案通过外部环境仍复杂 降准降息可期利率难改下行趋势 ——2025 年上半年货币政策与利率债回顾与下半年展望 本期要点 收益率或小幅上行,2022 年 11 月 【货币政策及利率债 2022 年前三季度回顾与下阶段 展望 ...

截至2025年7月11日 10:34，国债ETF5至10年(511020)多空胶着，最新报价117.49元。拉长时间看，截至2025年7月10日，国 债ETF5至10年近1年累计上涨5.34%。 流动性方面，国债ETF5至10年盘中换手0.42%，成交631.07万元。拉长时间看，截至7月10日，国债ETF5至10年近1周日均 成交7.93亿元。 规模方面，国债ETF5至10年最新规模达14.96亿元。 回撤方面，截至2025年7月10日，国债ETF5至10年今年以来最大回撤2.15%，相对基准回撤0.59%。 费率方面，国债ETF5至10年管理费率为0.25%，托管费率为0.05%。 跟踪精度方面，截至2025年7月10日，国债ETF5至10年近1月跟踪误差为0.018%。 国债ETF5至10年紧密跟踪中证5-10年期国债活跃券指数(净价)，中证5-10年期国债活跃券指数从沪深交易所或银行间市场 上市的记账式附息国债中,选取发行期限为5年、7年和10年的债券作为指数样本券,采用非市值加权计算,以反映上述三个期 限国债活跃券的整体表现。 消息面上，因地产刺激传言、农商行债券投资约束传言及股市新高等，近日债市略 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current issuance progress of interest - rate bonds in 2025, predicts the issuance rhythm in the second half of the year, and evaluates its impact. It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market, and the overall impact of the issuance of special refinancing bonds on the capital market is controllable [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Current Issuance Progress - **Treasury Bonds**: As of July 7, 2025, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 32955 billion yuan, with a progress of 53.5%, the fastest in the same period in the past five years. The issuance scale of major - term coupon - bearing treasury bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance progress of special treasury bonds exceeded half, with the first issuance peak in May [10][16]. - **Local Bonds**: The issuance rhythm of local bonds in the first half of the year was faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2022 - 2023. General bonds showed the characteristics of "accelerating from January to March, slow issuance from April to May, and accelerating again in the last week of June". The issuance of special bonds was relatively even, and the progress slightly exceeded that of the same period in 2024. The issuance of special refinancing bonds was concentrated in the first quarter and gradually ended in the second quarter. The issuance of special new special bonds exceeded half, with a large volume in the second quarter [23][32]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: Since 2020, the issuance scale of policy - financial bonds has basically remained in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of policy - financial bonds was 34968 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 58%, generally higher than the same - period level in the past five years [36]. 3.2 Issuance Rhythm in the Second Half of the Year - **Treasury Bonds**: The net issuance scale in the second half of the year remains relatively high. The issuance of ordinary treasury bonds may be more evenly distributed monthly, with a slower rhythm but a high net issuance scale. For special treasury bonds, as of July 7, 2025, there were still 10 bonds to be issued, with a remaining quota of 6220 billion yuan, and the average issuance scale per bond was about 622 billion yuan. August - September may be the peak issuance months [40][44]. - **Local Bonds**: In the case of new local bonds, two scenarios are considered. In both scenarios, the third quarter may see a supply peak. If 2 trillion yuan of debt - resolution quota for next year is advanced to this year's fourth quarter, the supply pressure in October may increase significantly, and the pressure in November - December will decrease. The issuance of policy - financial bonds is expected to maintain a balanced rhythm, with the total issuance amount remaining in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan, and the rhythm tends to be front - loaded [3][4][48]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: The total issuance amount is expected to remain in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan since 2020. The rhythm tends to be front - loaded, estimated by referring to the average issuance in the same period from 2020 - 2024 [72]. 3.3 Impact Assessment It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market. If there is a reserve requirement ratio cut, the third quarter may be a good observation period. If not, the central bank may increase the investment of outright reverse repurchases and MLF or restart treasury bond trading operations. Referring to the situation in the fourth quarter of 2024, if special refinancing bonds are issued in advance in the fourth quarter of this year, the overall impact is expected to be controllable [5][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index remained stable, with an increase in the year - on - year growth rate. The bull - bear signal for interest - rate bonds remained unchanged [1][9]. - Different sectors showed various trends, including a decline in the opening rates of major production varieties, an increase in the land transaction premium rate in real - estate sales, a continuous increase in the asphalt production opening rate in infrastructure investment, a decline in the export container freight rate index, a continuous recovery in passenger car retail and wholesale in consumption, a continuous decline in the agricultural product wholesale price index for CPI, an increase in copper and aluminum prices for PPI, a continuous recovery in passenger transport and flights in transportation, a continuous increase in soda ash inventory, a decrease in local government bond net financing and an increase in credit bond net financing in financing [13][25][33][37][52][60][62][74][83][92]. Summary by Directory Total Index - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index was 126.5 points (previous value: 126.4 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.2 points (previous value: 5.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The bull - bear signal for interest - rate bonds remained unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.8% (previous value: 4.8%) [1][9]. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index was 125.8 (previous value: 125.7), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value: 4.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. The opening rates of major production varieties such as electric furnaces, polyester, and steel tires decreased [1][9][13]. Real - Estate Sales - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index was 44.1 (previous value: 44.2), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4 points (previous value: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remained unchanged. The land transaction premium rate in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased to 7.8% (previous value: 7.1%) [1][9][25]. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index was 119.0 (previous value: 118.8), with a year - on - year increase of 3.0 points (previous value: 2.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. The opening rate of the petroleum asphalt device continued to rise to 31.7% (previous value: 31.5%) [1][9][35]. Export - The export high - frequency index was 144.1 (previous value: 144.1), with a year - on - year increase of 4.7 points (previous value: 5.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed. The CCFI index and RJ/CRB index decreased [1][9][39]. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index was 119.5 (previous value: 119.4), with a year - on - year increase of 1.9 points (previous value: 1.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. Passenger car retail and wholesale and daily average movie box office continued to recover [1][9][52]. CPI - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast was 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The agricultural product wholesale price index continued to decline, with changes in the average wholesale prices of pork, vegetables, fruits, and white - striped chickens [1][9][60]. PPI - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast was 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). Copper and aluminum prices increased, while the prices of动力煤 and Brent crude oil remained relatively stable [1][9][62]. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index was 128.6 (previous value: 128.4), with a year - on - year increase of 8.5 points (previous value: 8.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expanded. Passenger transport and flights continued to recover [2][10][74]. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index was 160.6 (previous value: 160.5), with a year - on - year increase of 9.6 points (previous value: 9.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. Soda ash inventory continued to increase [2][10][83]. Financing - The financing high - frequency index was 230.9 (previous value: 230.3), with a year - on - year increase of 29.4 points (previous value: 29.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. Local government bond net financing decreased, and credit bond net financing increased [2][10][92].

十年国债作为债券市场基准，占据重要配置地位，是目前市场中交易量最大的单一债券品种。十年国债 ETF(511260)具备三大交易优势：（1）交易灵活，支持场内T+0回转交易，实时价格确认,适合波段交 易；（2）可作为交易所标准券提交质押，目前质押率约94%，可通过质押提高资金利用率；（3）成分 券均为CTD券，适用于期现套利策略。各位投资者可以通过十年国债ETF(511260)把握债市投资机会。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引 导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金 投资所固有的风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票 ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期风险水平高 于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标 的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作 为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个 ...

2025 年 7 月 6 日 总量研究 在 2025 年 1 月 9 日的报告《论 DR007 的属性及其取舍》中我们曾阐释 OMO 逆回购操作具有"工具模式"和"非工具模式"。在"非工具模式"下，货币当 局舍弃对于 OMO 规模的主动调节，OMO 规模不再是中央银行调节流动性的手 段，而是由各一级交易商根据政策利率、自身流动性的需求、对市场的判断决定。 市场竞争的作用使得最终形成的 DR007 中枢会略微高于 7D OMO 利率，此外实 践中 DR001 的中枢略低于 7D OMO 利率。例如，在 2024 年内，DR007 平均高 出 7D OMO 利率 10.4bp，DR001 平均低于 7D OMO 利率 4.5bp。（注：我们判 断 2024 年 OMO 基本处于"非工具模式"，故选取该段时间作为研究窗口。） 当前 DR007 和 DR001 与 7D OMO 之间的利差分别为 2.2bp 和-8.6bp，皆已明 显低于 2024 年的均值，更接近于该段时间的 1/4 分位数（注：2.8bp 和-10.7bp）。 我们判断，在下次 OMO 降息之前，DR007 和 DR001 中枢进一步下行的空间是 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 高频经济跟踪周报 20250705 需求：新房成交同比回落，汽车消费持续回暖 （1）地产方面，本周 20 城商品房成交面积环比小幅上升，但同比下降， 明显低于季节性水平，高能级城市新房成交同比跌幅收窄，低能级城市新 房成交同比跌幅加大。此外，重点城市二手房成交面积环比大多下降。 （2）消费方面，乘用车零售日均销量和批发日均销量环比上升，观影消费 低于季节性，出行表现有所分化，全国迁徙规模指数环周上升，一线城市 地铁客运量环周回落。 生产：工业生产运行平稳，基建开工维持偏强 （1）中上游方面，唐山高炉开工率小幅下降，螺纹钢开工率下降，PTA 开 工率环周上升，涤纶长丝开工率与石油沥青装置开工率环周上升，指向基 建开工或边际改善。 （2）下游方面，汽车全钢胎开工率和半钢胎开工率较上周下降，半钢胎绝 对值仍高于历年同期水平，以旧换新补贴政策支持下短期内对生产端或有 一定支撑。 基建施工加速，对美航运价格回落 证券研究报告 投资：螺纹钢表观消费回暖，水泥价格有所下降 螺纹钢表观消费表现回暖，螺纹钢价格环周上升；水泥发运率与水泥库容 比下降，水泥价格有所下降。 贸易：港口吞吐量下降，出口集运 ...

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益周报 跨季后资金转松，利率窄幅震荡 ――利率债周报 | 分析师： 王哲语 | | SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 7 月 4 日 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | 统计区间：2025 年 6 27 日至 年 7 月 3 日 | 月 | 2025 | | | [Table_IndInvest] 王哲语 | | | | | | |  | | 重点事件点评 | | | | | 022-23839051 |  PMI | 月制造业内外需均 数据：在扩内需政策及"抢出口"效应带动下，6 | | | | | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | | 有改善，7 月制造业景气度则可能受到天气因素的制约。 | | | | |  | | 资金价格：跨季后资金转松 | | | | |  | | 统计期内，央行在公开市场净回笼资金超 亿元，跨季后，资金面回 5000 | | | | | 周喜 | | 归宽松，DR007 回落至 1.50%以下，R00 ...

截至2025年7月4日 09:46，公司债ETF(511030)上涨0.03%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报106.19元。拉长时间看，截至2025年7月3日，公司债ETF近1年累计上涨 2.18%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手0.48%，成交1.05亿元。拉长时间看，截至7月3日，公司债ETF近1月日均成交22.76亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达218.76亿元，创成立以来新高。 机构指出，6月社融或同比多增。尽管信贷需求持续偏弱，但银行冲信贷规模，预计6月新增贷款2万亿左右，社融增量3.8万亿，社融增速8.8%，政府债券及 企业债券净融资多。 7月4日利率债二级交易：大行+101亿，股份-53亿，城商行-246亿，农商行-331亿；券商自营-64亿，险资+26亿，债基+267亿。昨日债市主要靠债基，年初 以来债基累计净买入20Y以上债券约1700亿。 央行松宽松，继续看多信用。利率债看窄幅震荡，向下突破需新一轮降息，波段操作要紧密关注央行资金面行为。7月理财规模预计大幅增长，继续看多长 久期下沉的城投及资本债，看多城投点心债及美元债，关注保险次级债机会，重点提示中华财险资本补充债机会。2026年 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 03 日 社融有望同比多增 ——2025 年 6 月金融数据预测 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 核心预判：依据过往信贷投放规律及行业观察等，我们预测 2025 年 6 月新增贷款 2.1 万 亿元，社融 3.8 万亿元。6 月末，M2 达 329.2 万亿，YoY+7.9%；M1（新口径）YoY +2.5%； 社融增速 8.8%。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 6 月新增贷款或同比接近。二季度，4 月及 5 月往往是信贷投放小月，6 月为投放大 月。尽管信贷需求持续偏弱，但银行在 6 月往往会冲刺信贷规模，以做大半年末贷 款余额。我们预计 6 月新增贷款 2.1 万亿，同比接近；个贷增量 5000 亿，对公信贷 增量 1.55 万亿，非银同业贷款+500 亿。定期存款利率下调可能提升按揭早偿压力， 但一二线城市成交较活跃，按揭贷款有望正增长。我们预计 6 月个贷短期+1500 亿， 个贷中长期+3500 亿。我们预 ...