基建实物工作量的积极变化 证券研究报告 高频跟踪周报 20251011 核心关注点：本周地产新房成交环比下降，同比下降，二手房成交量持续 走低；汽车消费升温，电影票房下降，消费需求边际遇冷；生产领域开工 率表现分化，PTA 开工率持平，石油沥青开工率升至年内高点；投资方面 螺纹钢消费量价回落，水泥价格发货率高于去年同期；商品期货价格维持 波动，铁矿石、锌、铝等有色金属期货价格涨幅靠前。 尽管当前部分高频数据表现平淡，但基建投资表现仍较亮眼。结合实物工 作量来看，截至 10 月 10 日当周，石油沥青装置开工率环周上升 5.7 个百 分点至 40.1%，处内年内高点；截至 9 月 26 日当周，水泥发运率为 40.0%， 较去年同期上升 4.1 个百分点。 四季度基建领域的重要关注点在于 5000 亿元新型政策性金融工具的加速 落地。9 月 29 日，发改委表示，"新型政策性金融工具规模共 5000 亿元， 全部用于补充项目资本金"，抓紧将资金投放到具体项目。 目前多地已开始陆续对接该工具，让资金及时落地形成实物工作量，尽快 将政策红利转化为实际投资，在该工具的撬动下，四季度基建投资增速有 望回升。 固定收益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the Chinese stock market and economic indicators during the National Day holiday, highlighting the strong stock market despite weak consumption and real estate data [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The stock market showed strong performance, with an increase of over 1.3%, breaking through the 3900 mark, driven by positive sentiment around AI narratives [5]. - The bond market remained stable, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.785% after opening at 1.7925% [5]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 145.13 billion yuan, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Consumer spending during the holiday was weak, with an average daily expenditure of 113 yuan per person, recovering to 97% of 2019 levels [5]. - Real estate transaction volumes in key cities saw a significant decline, with year-on-year reductions of nearly 50% [5]. - Movie box office revenues were down nearly 60% compared to 2019, reflecting ongoing challenges in the entertainment sector [5].

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity environment in China has shifted from tight to loose, with the central bank conducting significant reverse repos to support the market, indicating a proactive stance on maintaining liquidity during the quarter-end period [1][12]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields reaching 1.83% and 2.14% respectively, before retreating as equity markets adjusted [1]. - The central bank's actions included a total of 900 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos and maintaining MLF operations, reflecting a clear intention to support liquidity [1][12]. Bond Yield Changes - As of September 26, 2025, the yields on various maturities showed mixed movements compared to September 19, with the 1-year yield decreasing by 0.75 basis points and the 30-year yield increasing by 1.74 basis points [2][3]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a slight decrease of 0.21 basis points, while the 30-year yield increased by 3 basis points over the same period [2][3]. Primary Market Activity - In the primary market, a total of 102 bonds were issued, amounting to 579.73 billion yuan, including 3 government bonds worth 247.53 billion yuan and 78 local government bonds totaling 196.05 billion yuan [7]. - Upcoming issuance plans for the week of September 28 to September 30 include 33 bonds, all of which are local government bonds, totaling 107.15 billion yuan [8]. International Market Context - The U.S. bond market saw yields rise, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 5 basis points to 4.18%, reflecting ongoing discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate adjustments [9][10]. - The divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the path of interest rate cuts indicates a complex outlook for global monetary policy, which may impact investor sentiment in the bond markets [9][10][11]. Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for a supportive monetary policy stance to ensure liquidity and stabilize the financial market, while also addressing the challenges of domestic demand and low inflation [13][17]. - The central bank's commitment to maintaining a stable yuan exchange rate and enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market was highlighted as a key focus area [1][17]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Tianfeng Securities and Caitong Securities noted that the current monetary policy reflects a balance between stability and flexibility, with expectations of controlled liquidity pressure in the upcoming month [18][19]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with suggestions for investors to adopt strategies focused on short-term bonds and high-quality credit instruments [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bonds remain a weak asset currently. At the end of September, first focus on changes in the funding situation and the equity market, and approach with a cautious mindset. Also, look ahead to the main - line switching process in the fourth quarter. In 2025, the bond market switched to a relatively clear main - line logic each quarter, and the main - line logic weakened at the end of each quarter. The trading main - line in the fourth quarter may switch to institutional behavior changes and interest - rate cut expectations successively, and the yield curve may show a pattern of steepening first and then flattening [17][18][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Funds Price: Tightening of Quarter - End Funding - From September 19th to September 25th, the central bank made a net open - market injection of nearly 60 billion yuan. On September 22nd, it conducted 30 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. During the statistical period, the overall funds price increased, with the DR007 rising to 1.6%, the R007 rising to 1.8%, and the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit yield rising to 1.7%, the highest since early June [8] 3.2 Primary Market: Increase in Special Bond Issuance Scale - From September 19th to September 25th, 119 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance total of 708.6 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 77.2 billion yuan. On September 19th, 82 billion yuan of 30 - year special treasury bonds were re - issued at a price of 99.67 yuan, with an annual yield of 2.17%, higher than the secondary - market transaction price. The issuance scale of local special bonds increased seasonally at the end of the month. As of September 25th, 1.23 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds had been issued in 2025, with about 70 billion yuan remaining to be issued; 3.66 trillion yuan of new local special bonds had been issued, with about 240 billion yuan remaining to be issued [10][11] 3.3 Secondary Market: Uptick in Yield Curve - From September 19th to September 25th, the treasury bond yield curve rose again, with increased intraday volatility. The main constraint on the bond market during this statistical period came from the news front. The market expected that the redemption fee adjustment for public bond funds was imminent, which led institutions to actively redeem bond funds. Additionally, the stock - bond seesaw effect still existed, and the relatively strong and volatile equity market also dampened bond market sentiment [12] 3.4 Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: The bond market currently has low sensitivity to fundamentals. From an asset - allocation perspective, weak fundamentals imply a low return rate in the real economy. However, in the stage of low bond coupons and capital losses, bond - type assets also struggle to provide higher comprehensive returns, so the bond market's sensitivity to fundamentals has declined [17] - **Policy**: Incremental policies will mainly cover three directions. First, after the release of August economic data, market expectations for pro - growth policies have increased, with promoting consumption and expanding infrastructure likely to be key areas. The real - estate sector may also see partial relaxation. Second, the fund redemption fee adjustment plan will be officially implemented. Third, there is still a high expectation that the central bank will restart open - market bond purchases to maintain liquidity and stabilize the bond market, which may occur alongside the redemption fee adjustment to smooth out bond market fluctuations. Based on 2024 experience, the central bank mainly buys short - term bonds, so the yield curve is likely to steepen, and caution is needed for long - term bonds [17] - **Funds**: There is still pressure on the cross - quarter funding situation [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the bond market sentiment was volatile, with interest rates showing a V-shaped oscillation. Credit bonds also had mixed performance, with the over - sold second - tier and perpetual (二永) bonds partially recovering, while ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to perform poorly. The cost - effectiveness of coupon assets has increased [1][4][10]. - 2 - 5 - year bank secondary capital bonds can continue to be considered; a strategy of sinking into 1 - 3 - year weak - quality urban investment bonds is recommended, as the riding income of about 3 - year varieties with a yield of over 2.2% is quite significant. Ultra - long - term credit bonds have improved in coupon cost - effectiveness after continuous adjustment, but only allocation - type institutions are advised to consider them due to the lack of marginal improvement in liquidity [4][25]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Performance - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The overall trend of interest rate bonds was oscillatory last week. The active 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuated between 1.76% - 1.81%, with the bearish force slightly stronger and the bond price weakening over the week [1][10]. - **Credit Bonds**: Different - term credit bond varieties showed differentiated performance. The yields of 1Y - 5Y Treasury bonds and AAA, AA + medium - and short - term notes changed to varying degrees from September 15th to September 19th, 2025. Ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to weaken, with the decline of 10Y varieties generally exceeding that of the same - term interest rate bonds [10][11][12]. 3.2 Secondary - tier and Perpetual (二永) Bonds - **Yield Changes**: After over - adjustment the week before last, the yields of 1Y - 5Y of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds decreased, while those of ultra - long - term parts were similar to ultra - long - term credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5 years, 7 years, and 10 years of AAA - bank secondary capital bonds decreased by 1.19BP, 1.21BP, 2.58BP, 0.53BP, 1.51BP respectively, and increased by 1.63BP and 3.53BP respectively [2][17]. - **Trading Situation**: In the first half of the week, the sentiment for recovery was high, while in the second half, it was more pessimistic. From September 15th to September 19th, the proportion of low - valuation transactions of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds was 100.00%, 100.00%, 100.00%, 0.00%, 2.44% respectively; the average trading durations were 6.16 years, 4.66 years, 5.01 years, 1.07 years, 0.96 years respectively. The discount trading amplitude was generally within 2BP, and there were only 8 transactions with an amplitude of over 3BP [18][20]. 3.3 Ultra - long - term Credit Bonds - **Selling Pressure**: The institutional selling of ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to strengthen throughout the week, but it was not a typical urgent selling situation. From September 15th to September 19th, the proportion of discount transactions was 56.10%, 70.73%, 48.78%, 65.85%, 78.05% respectively, and most of the discount amplitudes were within 4BP [3][21]. - **Buying Willingness**: The market's willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds remained weak, and high - activity transactions were mainly concentrated in weak - quality urban investment bonds. The proportion of transactions below the valuation was 26.83%, 9.76%, 36.59%, 21.95%, 7.32% respectively. However, about 25% of the transactions below the valuation had an amplitude of over 4BP, mainly in 2 - 5 - year weak - quality urban investment bonds [3][22][27]. 3.4 Curve Shape and Yield Quantiles - **Curve Steepness**: The steepness of the 1 - 2 - year and 2 - 3 - year segments of the full - grade yield curve was the highest, and it was steeper than that after the sharp decline at the end of July. Taking AA + medium - term notes and AA urban investment bonds as examples, the slopes of different segments were calculated [13]. - **Yield Quantiles**: From September 15th to September 19th, 2025, the 1Y - 3Y coupon assets had a certain cost - effectiveness, but the credit spread protection was insufficient. The valuation yields to maturity of 1Y - AAA, 3Y - AAA, etc. were at the corresponding quantiles since 2024, and the historical quantiles of credit spreads were also provided [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a correction, with product net values showing differentiation, particularly favoring rights-inclusive fixed income products over traditional bond funds [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Returns Review - In the past month, the bond market corrected while the stock market rose. The performance of products showed differentiation, with rights-inclusive fixed income products yielding 0.54% (down from 0.84%), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit yielding 0.13% (down from 0.14%), and cash management products yielding 0.10% (unchanged). Short-term bond funds yielded 0.05% (up from 0.03%), while medium to long-term bond funds yielded -0.07% (improved from -0.25%) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a correction with overall sentiment remaining weak. Short-term bonds outperformed long-term bonds, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Key factors influencing the bond market included a gradual increase in market risk appetite, new regulations on public fund fees, and a weak economic backdrop [11][12][19]. Industry Events Tracking - On September 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Sales Fee Management Regulations (Draft for Comments)," which aims to lower costs for investors and promote long-term investment [35]. Outlook - **Short-term (1 month)**: The interbank certificate of deposit rates are expected to remain stable, with continued pressure for corrections in the market. Long-term bonds are anticipated to underperform compared to short-term bonds [11]. - **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: Economic recovery and inflation trends are under observation, with the potential for a slight rise in interest rates. If the central bank initiates a new round of interest rate cuts, it may alleviate correction pressures in the bond market [11][30]. Fixed Income Product Strategy - Investors are advised to prioritize short to medium-term products, with caution advised for long-term investments. The strategy includes maintaining cash positions and considering stable low-volatility financial products, short-term bond funds, or wealth management products [36][39]. Equity Market Overview - The A-share market has shown upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.0%, the CSI 300 Index up 7.8%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 21% over the past month [28]. Asset Class Trends - The bond market is expected to face increased volatility, with a potential top in interest rate increases. The supply of government bonds is projected to decrease, while demand remains supported, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - For conservative investors, maintaining pure bond products is recommended, with a cautious approach to extending duration. For those with higher risk tolerance, mid to long-term bond funds may be considered as interest rates rise above 1.8% [39][40]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of correction, with varying performance across different products. Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategic approach based on their risk tolerance and market conditions [36][39].

Macro and Strategy Research - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with August non-farm employment data falling short of expectations and previous months' figures revised downwards, indicating a potential deterioration trend [3][4] - In Europe, the European Central Bank remains confident about future inflation and economic growth, with market expectations for a rate cut before mid-2026 dropping below 50% [4] - Domestic exports in China have declined year-on-year due to high base effects from last year, but exports to non-US regions continue to perform better, which may influence future growth [4][7] - The PPI in China is expected to show a low recovery in September, while CPI growth is significantly affected by food and energy prices [4][7] Fixed Income Research - The yield curve has steepened, with the bond market under pressure due to a strong equity market and adjustments in redemption fees affecting market sentiment [8][9] - In the primary market, the issuance of interest rate bonds totaled 74, with a net financing amount of 45.2 billion yuan, indicating a gradual decrease in supply pressure [7][9] - The central bank's actions, including potential 14-day reverse repos, will be crucial in determining the liquidity situation in the market [9] Industry Research - Chinese pharmaceutical companies showcased impressive research results at the World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC), highlighting the strength of domestic innovation [10][12] - Hengrui Medicine has signed a licensing agreement for the HRS-1893 project and has received drug registration approval, indicating its ongoing expansion efforts [11][12] - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has been positive, with the industry index showing a 1.76% increase, outperforming other sectors [11][12] - The upcoming China Clinical Oncology Society (CSCO) annual meeting and the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) conference are expected to provide further insights into the industry's development [12]

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 14 日 博弈调整之后的信用补涨机会 ——信用分析周报（2025/9/8-2025/9/12） 投资要点： 本周（9/8-9/12）市场概览： 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、净融资额环比上周均有所增加，偿还量环比 上周有所减少；资产支持证券净融资额环比上周增加 125 亿元；本周 AA+城投债、 AAA 金融债加权平均发行利率上升超 20BP，AA+产业债加权平均发行利率上行 11BP，其余不同评级不同券种的发行成本较上周波动不超过 10BP。 联系人 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周增加 1106 亿元；换手率方面，本周城投 债换手率较上周有所下降，其他品种换手率较上周环比上升。或受基金赎回费新规 等影响，本周信用债收益率整体跟随利率债出现不同幅度调整，7Y 以上的长端调整 幅度达 6-9BP。总体来看，本周 AA+电子、钢铁行业信用利差大幅收窄，其余不同 行业不同评级的信用利差波动幅度均不超过 5BP。具体来看，本周 AA+电子、钢铁 行业信用利差较上周分别收窄 18BP、20BP，除此以外，其余各行业各评级的债券 ...

每经编辑｜彭水萍 从我们的分析框架出发，我们认为利率债定价的核心叫做"三个面"：长期基本面、中期政策面、短期技术面。 我们研判的观点概括起来叫"上有顶、下有底"，并且以波段操作思路为主。宏观经济的现实还没有看到明显改善，甚至金融数据再度不及预期，都对债市 有支撑，十年国债的利率较难进一步上行，之前观察到在1.8%左右也会有配置盘买入。但是从资金面和政策面的角度看，本身银行的资金成本也比较 高，逆回购在1.4%左右的水平，同业存单在1.6%的水平，那如果资金成本没有下降的话，十年国债的利率也很难向下突破。那么在这样的窄幅震荡行情 中，博弈属性相对较强，所以市场上近期对技术层面的分析也有了更高的热度。 具体解释一下我们的结论，首先我们认为目前的宏观现实仍然对利率债有支撑的。在基本面角度，利率的主要定价因素就是经济增长与通胀，经济增长定 的是实际利率，那么加上通胀就是名义利率。但是在我们国家通胀并不是一个很独立的因素，往往说经济需求强，经济活动活跃，物价就会跟着上涨，所 以通胀说到底还是一个经济增长的问题，而且是内需驱动下的经济增长问题。 我们认为，经济增长的前瞻指标还是要去看金融的量价指标，量的层面就是社会融资的 ...

Group 1 - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) showed weak performance, declining by 0.22% on September 10 and 0.45% over the past five days, indicating a bearish signal in the short term [1] - The current macroeconomic fundamentals and funding environment suggest that the bond market is in a range-bound oscillation, with upward and downward limits on interest rates, recommending a focus on swing trading and monitoring rebound opportunities [1][2] - The widening gap between social financing scale and RMB loans is driven by government bonds and leveraging to support the economy, with fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving profit expectations [2] Group 2 - Despite support for the bond market, there are constraints from policies and funding, making it difficult for the ten-year government bond yield to drop below 1.7% or 1.6% [2] - The narrow interest rate spread indicates that the central bank's easing policies aim to maintain existing low rates rather than push rates further down, limiting the downward momentum for long-term rates [2] - There are risks of breaking the narrow oscillation, particularly from rising inflation expectations and potential actions from the central bank regarding interest rate cuts and government bond purchases [3]