债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 权益走强叠加美伊冲突爆发，债市收益率先上后下 ——利率债市场周度复盘 具体看，本周央行全口径净回笼 4614 亿元，资金情绪指数基本在 50 附近，1y 国股行存单发行利率下行至 1.59%。 周三（2 月 25 日），央行净投放 3095 亿元，资金面由紧转松，上海地产政策 优化落地，权益震荡偏强，股债跷板效应叠加机构止盈驱动，收益率震荡回调， 10 年国债回到 1.8%上方。 周四（2 月 26 日），央行净回笼 795 亿元，权益市场高位回调，受"沪七条" 以及两会前政策博弈，止盈情绪升温，现券情绪偏弱，10y 国债收益率最高上 行至 1.8140%。 周五（2 月 27 日），央行净投放 2690 亿元，央行下调远期售汇业务的外汇风 险准备金率，午间政治局会议通稿公布增量内容不多，债市情绪修复，配置盘 有序进场，券商转为净买入，现券收益率多数下行，10y 国债活跃券回到 1.8% 附近。 周六（2 月 28 日），央行延续净投放，跨月资金平稳宽松，调休日上午债市成 交清淡，午后美伊局势升级，避险情绪升温驱动收益率加速下行，10y 国债活 跃券下行 1.2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Real data is better than "involution-driven" high growth. The credit growth in January 2026 was more realistic, and financial institutions paid more attention to the balanced credit delivery. Credit growth should match economic growth and price level targets, rather than simply aiming for high volume [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 2026 January Credit Data Analysis - The new RMB loans in January 2026 were 4.71 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the same period in 2024 (4.92 trillion yuan) and 2025 (5.13 trillion yuan), but significantly higher than November 2025 (0.39 trillion yuan) and December 2025 (0.91 trillion yuan) [1]. - January is usually a peak month for credit, with a seasonal "good start" pattern. In 2024 and 2025, January's credit increments accounted for 27.2% and 31.5% of the annual total respectively, and the first - quarter credit increments accounted for 52.3% and 60.1% of the annual total [1]. Analysis of "Involution - Driven" Credit Competition - Some financial institutions used to increase credit delivery in January or the first quarter to create a "good start" situation, which is an "involution - driven" competition. This behavior may lead to capital precipitation, lower net interest margins of the banking industry, and over - draw credit demand in subsequent months [2]. Evaluation of January 2026 Credit Situation - The credit growth in January 2026 was more realistic. The new loans in January were 4.71 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 3.80 trillion yuan, indicating sufficient credit supply [3]. - On January 15, 2026, the central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, showing sufficient policy strength [3]. - The weighted average interest rate of new corporate loans (domestic and foreign currencies) in January 2026 was about 3.2%, about 20 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating that financial institutions fully met the effective financing needs of the real economy [3]. - In January 2026, the M2 growth rate reached 9.0%, the highest in the past two years, and the growth rate of the social financing stock was basically the same as that in December 2025, indicating a match between social financing scale, money supply growth, economic growth, and price level targets [3].

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益周报 债市延续偏强震荡 ――利率债周报 | | 分析师： 王哲语 | SAC NO： S1150524070001 2026 年 2 月 13 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研 | [Table_Author] | 统计区间：2026 年 2 月 6 日至 2026 年 2 月 12 日 | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | [Table_IndInvest]  王哲语 | 重要事件点评 | | | 究 | | | | | | 022-23839051 | 通胀数据：1 月核心 CPI 环比涨幅扩大至近 6 个月最高，主要源于节假 | | | | wangzheyu@bhzq.com | 日出行需求升温、国际金价上行等；PPI 环比涨幅扩大，主要源于"反 | | | | | 内卷"与新质生产力发展并进。展望来看，春节因素有望带动 月 2 | CPI | | | 周喜 | 同环比涨幅扩大，PPI 环比涨幅或与 1 月接近，同比降幅进一步收窄。 | | | |  | 资金价格：节前资金面平稳 | | | 证 | SAC NO：S1 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the bond market in China, with a long-term bullish outlook on the bond market despite short-term fluctuations [1][15]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Long-term Bullish Outlook**: The company maintains a long-term bullish view on the bond market, with expectations of upward trends despite potential short-term volatility, particularly after the Spring Festival [1][10]. 2. **High Real Interest Rates**: China's real interest rates, measured by the 10-year government bond yield relative to CPI, remain high at approximately 1.1168, which is conducive to economic growth and necessitates a low-interest environment [2][4]. 3. **International Comparisons**: Historical data from developed economies shows that exiting low-interest environments takes considerable time, suggesting that China may also require a prolonged period to stabilize its interest rates [3][4]. 4. **Government Debt Levels**: The increasing scale of government debt, projected to rise to over 70 trillion for central government bonds and 80 trillion for local government bonds by 2026, indicates significant fiscal pressure that necessitates a low-interest environment [4][5]. 5. **Banking Sector Stability**: The banking sector's net interest margin has been declining, from approximately 2.1% in 2020 to 1.42% in 2025, which impacts profitability and necessitates a stable interest rate environment to maintain financial stability [6][7]. 6. **Insurance Sector Growth**: The insurance sector has seen rapid growth, with new premium income reaching 212.6 billion in January 2026, a 27.6% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand for bonds from non-bank financial institutions [8][9]. 7. **Bond Market Demand**: There is a significant demand for bonds from various sectors, including insurance, as large amounts of fixed deposits are maturing and being converted into insurance products and other financial instruments [9][10]. 8. **Interest Rate Projections**: The 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain within the range of 1.7% to 1.9%, with a potential decline to 1.6% if interest rates are cut further [10][11]. 9. **Investment Strategies**: The company recommends focusing on high liquidity government bonds and credit bonds, with an emphasis on safety and yield, particularly in the context of expected low interest rates and potential market volatility [22][23]. Additional Important Content - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination**: The need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to support domestic demand is emphasized, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs [15][16]. - **Asset Management Products**: The total assets of asset management products have reached 120 trillion, reflecting a growing trend in the financial market that requires careful monitoring [17][18]. - **Regional Investment Insights**: Specific regions such as Beijing and Guangxi are highlighted for their stable investment opportunities, with a focus on local government bonds and enterprises that are financially sound [26][29]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic outlook presented during the conference call, focusing on the bond market dynamics, fiscal pressures, and investment strategies in the context of China's economic landscape.

Macro and Strategy Research - In January 2026, the central bank's liquidity net injection reached 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 400 billion yuan compared to December 2025, indicating a supportive stance on liquidity [3] - The issuance of interest rate bonds in January 2026 totaled 2.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 600 billion yuan, with significant growth in government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds [4] - The bond market outlook suggests that if the liquidity remains stable, interest rate bonds may show a strong oscillation pattern, with a focus on 3-year bonds and ultra-long-term bonds for potential gains [5] Industry Research - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is seeing a concentration of performance forecasts, with key developments including the approval of new drugs and significant partnerships among companies [10][11] - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology index saw a decline of 0.97% in the week of January 30 to February 5, 2026, with the industry’s price-to-earnings ratio at 51.01 times, reflecting a 261% premium over the CSI 300 index [11] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, and upstream life sciences, as well as monitoring companies that are expected to show a turnaround in performance [12]

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) rose by 0.30% as of 09:32 on February 6, 2026, with a trading volume of 1.06 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.49% [1] - The average daily trading volume of the 30-year Treasury ETF over the past year was 8.271 billion yuan as of February 5 [1] - On February 5, the interbank market bond yields declined by approximately 1 basis point, influenced by the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) resumption of 14-day reverse repos and adjustments in the A-share market, which boosted sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The PBOC conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation and a 300 billion yuan 14-day reverse repo operation on February 6, using a fixed rate and quantity tendering method [1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the bond market is expected to benefit from a combination of policy and economic data void, seasonal production slowdown, ample liquidity, and strong initial allocation forces in February [1] - Short-term factors contributing to the bond market rebound include higher-than-expected allocation and a significant increase in bank deposit retention rates, indicating a surplus in liabilities [1]

新华财经北京2月5日电债市周四（2月5日）小幅回暖，国债期货主力全线收涨，银行间现券收益率多数 回落，曲线中段下行1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放645亿元，短期资金利率有所回升。 机构认为，上日晚间公布的央行1月国债净买入量虽然增加，但绝对规模并不算大，对债券的支撑意义 相对有限。目前交投依然缺少明确的方向，重新回到观望状态，春节假期将至，节前料将维持震荡格 局。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.84%，报516.89，成交金额701.18亿元。双良转债、欧通转债、华辰转债、金 05转债、海优转债跌幅居前，分别跌16.86%、7.61%、6.70%、6.48%、6.40%。尚太转债、泰坦转债、 东时转债涨幅居前，分别涨57.30%、11.60%、6.80%。 【行情跟踪】 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间2月4日，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率跌0.61BP报3.555%，3年期 美债收益率跌0.56BP报3.632%，5年期美债收益率跌0.17BP报3.830%，10年期美债收益率涨0.8BP报 4.274%，30年期美债收益率涨2.38BPs报4.918%。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率"短升长降"，5年期 ...

而货币政策态度仍然比较中性，在呵护银行净息差以及汇率稳健升值的目标下，对债市保持合理区间的导向较强。总 体而言，今年债市或仍有利于偏稳健的配置型策略。 风险提示： 年初银行配置超预期后，债市经历了一轮缓慢上行，近期有所犹豫。十年国债ETF（511260）震荡为主，近5日微涨 0.05%。短期利率仍有机会下行，但中长期来看，窄幅震荡或会维持。配置型策略阶段性优于波段交易，或可关注久 期适中的国债ETF（511010）、十年国债ETF（511260）。 | 振0.38% 额76.07亿 | 综合屏 F9 后复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 砂 | 電信用F | | 511260 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -0.048 -0.04% | | | 2025/11/24-2026/02/04(51日) V | | | 中 / @ + | | | 137.107 | 净固走势 | | 国泰上证10年期国债ETF | | | | 影比 | -48.31% 委差 | -516 | | | | 卖五 | 134.750 | 101 | | | | 交回 | 134.748 ...

作者 分析师 瞿瑞 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 债市偏强震荡，收益率曲线延续平坦化 ——利率债周报（2026.1.26-2026.2.1） 核心观点 ·· 一、上周债市回顾 1. 二级市场 上周债市偏强震荡，长债收益率继续下行。全周看，10 年期国债期货 主力合约累计上涨 0.10%；上周五 10 年期国债收益率较前一周五下行 1.86bp，1 年期国债收益率较前一周五上行 1.80bp，期限利差继续收窄。 1 www.dfratings.com ·· 1 月 26 日：周一，受资金面未见明显缓和，叠加商品市场表现强劲 影响，债市整体震荡盘整。当日银行间主要利率债收益率多数上行， 但 10 年期国债收益率下行 0.56bp；国债期货各期限主力合约收盘多 数下跌，10 年期主力合约跌 0.02%。 1 月 27 日：周二，股市午后翻红，股债跷跷板效应显现，债市震荡 调整。当日银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行，10 年期国债收益率 上行 0.69bp；国债期货各期限主力合约收盘多数持平，其中，10 年 期主力合约持平。 1 月 28 日：周三，受央行可能推出新型隔夜工具投放流动性的传闻 提振，债市震荡回暖 ...

国债期货日报 2026/1/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.250 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 83851 | -3528↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.875 | 0.01% TF主力成交量 | 61278 | 5250↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.394 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 27838 | -1924↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.170 | 0.07% TL主力成交量 | 83695 | 24158↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | +0.03↑ T03-TL03价差 | -3.91 | -0.02↓ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.02 | -0.00↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.35 | -0.01↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | -0.04 | +0.01↑ TS03-T03价差 | -5.80 | 0. ...