来自Citadel的Scott Rubner补充认为，市场在进入2026年时拥有稳固的宏观基础。创纪录的家庭财富、不断扩大的股权持有比例以及充裕的现金余 额，共同为市场提供了结构性支撑，使得零售投资者的参与度在更高水平上得以维持。 贵金属迎来历史性牛市 与此同时，美股市场呈现出明显的结构性分化。Pasquariello强调，当前股市的定价隐含了对经济周期性加速的预期，但这尚未在宏观经济数据中 得到普遍验证。与之形成鲜明对比的是，债券市场所反映的经济叙事则更为谨慎，股债两大市场的信号分歧已达到近年来的罕见水平。 他指出，美股市场内部六个月实现相关性持续下降，显示出极高的分散度，预计这种低相关性、高分散度的特征将在下一阶段得以延续。 2025年无疑是贵金属与工业金属市场的里程碑年份。黄金价格全年飙升68%，创下1979年以来的最佳年度表现。高盛的Tony Pasquariello分析认 为，这背后可能交织着多重叙事：既可能是对全球财政主导格局的定价，或反映了市场对法定货币体系日益增长的担忧，也可能仅是源于央行需 求的空前强劲。 高盛资深交易员Tony Pasquariello在年终回顾中指出，2025年全球大宗商 ...

Core Viewpoint - A legal challenge against the Trump administration's key tariff powers is leading to market expectations of a significant, albeit possibly temporary, reversal of trade barriers [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Challenge and Market Reaction - The market's expectation of the Trump administration winning the IEEPA tariff case has significantly decreased, with the probability dropping from approximately 40% to 27% following initial court comments perceived as unfavorable [2]. - The outcome of this legal challenge is a key variable influencing current market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Potential Market Impact - If the court ultimately overturns the tariffs imposed under IEEPA, it could trigger a trading surge, leading to a decrease in inflation expectations, an increase in stock prices (especially small-cap stocks), and a strengthening of certain emerging market currencies like the Mexican peso and Brazilian real [1][4]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to drop from 12.5% to around 9% if IEEPA tariffs are overturned, which would benefit countries heavily reliant on trade with the U.S. [4][6]. Group 3: Beneficiaries and Losers - The primary beneficiaries of a potential IEEPA overturn would be countries with high trade dependency on the U.S., such as Vietnam and Mexico, while the EU and the UK would benefit the least [6]. - Other countries like India, which has not reached a trade agreement with the U.S., could see significant tariff reductions [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Market performance on the day of the hearing indicated a favorable sentiment towards small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index outperforming the S&P 500 [8]. - The foreign exchange market saw the Mexican peso and Brazilian real rise, aligning with the analysis of potential winners [8].

Group 1 - The economic data released on Friday highlights a stagnation in hiring, causing anxiety among the American public regarding job security in the age of artificial intelligence [1] - Despite the downturn in the job market, investors are betting on the Federal Reserve's intervention to support asset prices, indicating a divergence in perspectives between capital owners and the general workforce [1] - The stock market experienced a slight decline due to the weakened hiring trends, which underscore potential risks to future corporate earnings, yet the decline was moderate [1] Group 2 - The non-farm payroll growth was minimal, and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since 2021, confirming the worst employment growth since the pandemic began [1] - Financial markets show resilience despite the pressures on the real economy, with the Russell 2000 small-cap index rising for five consecutive weeks and credit spreads hovering at a ten-year low [1]