1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, L01 rose 0.1% to close at 7351 with a total position reduction of about 6100 lots, while PP01 fell 0.1% to close at 7084 with a total position reduction of about 6300 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend. - The main position indicators in Dayue's five major indicators show that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are bearish recently. - The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing. - Fundamentally, in July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 percentage points, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's manufacturing PMI in July dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to the fundamentals. Oil prices fluctuated and declined in the short term. - In terms of supply and demand, the overall demand for PE agricultural films fell short of expectations, and the film - making start - up rate was low. The downstream of PP is gradually moving into the peak season, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. has improved slightly. - The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is high. It is expected that the main contracts of L and PP will fluctuate this week. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Position Changes**: L01 rose 0.1% to 7351 with a reduction of about 6100 lots, and PP01 fell 0.1% to 7084 with a reduction of about 6300 lots [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contracts of L and PP are running below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish technical trend [5]. - **Basis Situation**: The basis of the L main contract is - 101, and that of the PP main contract is 16, with the basis of the main contracts narrowing [5]. 3.2 Production Profit | Contract | Latest | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | L Oil - based | - 151 | 126 | | L Coal - based | 963 | - 7 | | PP Oil - based | - 141 | 107 | | PP Coal - based | 418 | - 59 | | PDH | - 411 | - 144 | [6] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 with a growth rate of 20.5% [17]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 with a growth rate of 11.0% [19]. 3.4 Inventory - The polyolefin industry chain has high inventory. There are also multiple inventory trend charts for PE and PP, including comprehensive inventory, social inventory, and warehouse receipts [5][15][21][24][27][30] 3.5 Start - up Rate - There are start - up rate trend charts for PE and PP, showing the start - up rate changes throughout the year [33][36] 3.6 Profit - There are production cash - flow trend charts for PE (coal - chemical and oil - based) and PP (coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH) [39][42] 3.7 External Market Price - There are charts showing the internal - external price differences of polyolefins, as well as the US - dollar - denominated prices of PE and PP [45][48][50] 3.8 Downstream - There are charts showing the average start - up rates of PE and PP downstream industries [53][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, L09 fell 0.27% to close at 7282, with a total position reduction of about 19,900 lots. PP09 fell 0.35% to close at 7078, with a total position reduction of about 1,200 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend. The main position in Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently. The basis of the L main contract is 48, and that of the PP main contract is 172, with the futures price at a discount to the spot price. [5] - From a fundamental perspective, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 5, OPEC issued an increase production statement, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, and the downstream of packaging films remains weak. Most enterprises have reduced their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from the commissioning of new production capacity in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Recently, there have been signs of relaxation in Sino - US exchanges, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation. The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is neutral. It is expected that the main contracts of L and PP will fluctuate this week. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Position Changes**: L09 fell 0.27% to 7282 with a position reduction of about 19,900 lots; PP09 fell 0.35% to 7078 with a position reduction of about 1,200 lots. Other contracts also had corresponding price and position changes. For example, L01 decreased by 0.03% to 7243, and PP05 increased by 0.18% to 7032. [5][6] - **Technical and Position Analysis**: The main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend. The net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently. [5] - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of the L main contract is 48, and that of the PP main contract is 172, indicating that the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. [5] 3.2 Spot and Inventory - **Spot Price Changes**: The prices of L and PP delivery products and social inventories have changed. For example, the price of L delivery products increased by 10 to 7330, and the price of PP delivery products remained unchanged at 7250. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: PE comprehensive factory inventory decreased by 0.6 to 50.0, and PE social inventory increased by 42 to 50.7; PP comprehensive factory inventory decreased by 15 to 57.0, and PP social inventory increased by 19 to 25.2. [6] 3.3 Production Profit - **Profit Changes**: The production profits of L and PP from different sources (oil - based, coal - based, PDH) have changed. For example, L oil - based production profit decreased by 242 to - 219, and PP PDH production profit increased by 247 to - 355. [6] 3.4 Supply and Demand Balance - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and other indicators of polyethylene have changed. The production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 5.1% to 20.5%. The import dependence has shown a downward trend, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates between 8.9% and 19.0%. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. [18] 3.5 Downstream Market - **PE Downstream**: The average starting rate of PE downstream shows certain fluctuations throughout the year, reflecting the changing demand in the PE downstream market. [53] - **PP Downstream**: The average starting rate of PP downstream also fluctuates, indicating the demand situation in the PP downstream market. [56] 3.6 Other Market Indicators - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of L and PP warehouse receipts shows changes over time, which can reflect the inventory and market supply and demand situation to some extent. [14] - **Opening Rates**: The opening rates of PE and PP production show different trends throughout the year, which are related to production capacity utilization and market supply. [32][35] - **Production Cash Flows**: The production cash flows of PE and PP from different sources (coal - based, oil - based, PDH) show fluctuations over time, reflecting the profitability of different production methods. [38][41] - **External Market Prices**: The internal - external price differences of polyolefins and the US - dollar prices of PE and PP in the external market show corresponding changes, which are affected by international market supply and demand and exchange rates. [44][47][50]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Weekly Report - Date: June 20, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, L09 rose 2.12% to close at 7415, with a total position reduction of about 7300 lots; PP09 rose 2.11% to close at 7242, with a total position increase of about 53000 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running above the 20-day moving average, showing a bullish technical trend [5]. - The main position indicator in Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently [5]. - The basis of the L main contract is 45, and that of the PP main contract is 38, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5]. - Fundamentally, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since October last year. On June 21, the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities escalated the Middle East geopolitical crisis, and crude oil is expected to strengthen, which is positive for the cost side. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, the demand for packaging films is weakening, most enterprises are reducing their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity coming on stream in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. The inventory of the polyolefin industry chain is neutral. This week, the main contracts of L and PP are expected to fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: L01 rose 1.61% to 7347, L05 rose 1.58% to 7334, L09 rose 2.12% to 7415; PP01 rose 2.13% to 7188, PP05 rose 2.35% to 7185, PP09 rose 2.11% to 7242 [6]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The price of L delivery products increased by 200 to 7460, and the price of PP delivery products increased by 30 to 7280 [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the L main contract is 45, and that of the PP main contract is 38, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5] 3.2 Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The report provides a chart of L and PP warehouse receipts, but specific data is not further elaborated [15] - **Inventory Data**: PE comprehensive factory inventory is 556 (a decrease of 13), PE social inventory is 559 (a decrease of 27), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 608 (an increase of 26), and PP social inventory is 245 (an increase of 9) [6] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19] 3.4 Other Indicators - **开工率**: The report provides charts of PE and PP开工 rates, but specific data is not further elaborated [33][36] - **Profit**: The report provides charts of PE and PP production cash flows, including coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH production methods, but specific data is not further elaborated [39][41] - **External Market Prices**: The report provides charts of polyolefin internal - external price differences, as well as the US dollar prices of PE and PP, but specific data is not further elaborated [44][47][50] - **Downstream**: The report provides charts of the average downstream开工 rates of PE and PP, but specific data is not further elaborated [53][56]