交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃周报 2025-8-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 本周概要： • 聚烯烃周评：上周L01上涨0.1%，收于7351，合计减仓约6100张。PP01下跌0.1%收于7084，合计 减仓约6300张。技术上看，近期L、PP主力合约运行于20日均线下，技术走势偏空。 • 大越五大指标中的主力持仓显示，近期L、PP高胜率席位净持仓均偏空。 • L主力合约基差-101 ，PP主力合约基差16，主力合约基差收窄。 • 基本面来看：宏观方面， 7 月中国官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，环比降 0.4 个百分点，连续 4 个月收缩，财新7月制造业 PMI 从 50.4 降至 49.5，同样收缩，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同 比增 7.2%。"反内卷"政策推动商品预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, L09 fell 0.27% to close at 7282, with a total position reduction of about 19,900 lots. PP09 fell 0.35% to close at 7078, with a total position reduction of about 1,200 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend. The main position in Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently. The basis of the L main contract is 48, and that of the PP main contract is 172, with the futures price at a discount to the spot price. [5] - From a fundamental perspective, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 5, OPEC issued an increase production statement, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, and the downstream of packaging films remains weak. Most enterprises have reduced their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from the commissioning of new production capacity in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Recently, there have been signs of relaxation in Sino - US exchanges, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation. The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is neutral. It is expected that the main contracts of L and PP will fluctuate this week. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Position Changes**: L09 fell 0.27% to 7282 with a position reduction of about 19,900 lots; PP09 fell 0.35% to 7078 with a position reduction of about 1,200 lots. Other contracts also had corresponding price and position changes. For example, L01 decreased by 0.03% to 7243, and PP05 increased by 0.18% to 7032. [5][6] - **Technical and Position Analysis**: The main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend. The net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently. [5] - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of the L main contract is 48, and that of the PP main contract is 172, indicating that the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. [5] 3.2 Spot and Inventory - **Spot Price Changes**: The prices of L and PP delivery products and social inventories have changed. For example, the price of L delivery products increased by 10 to 7330, and the price of PP delivery products remained unchanged at 7250. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: PE comprehensive factory inventory decreased by 0.6 to 50.0, and PE social inventory increased by 42 to 50.7; PP comprehensive factory inventory decreased by 15 to 57.0, and PP social inventory increased by 19 to 25.2. [6] 3.3 Production Profit - **Profit Changes**: The production profits of L and PP from different sources (oil - based, coal - based, PDH) have changed. For example, L oil - based production profit decreased by 242 to - 219, and PP PDH production profit increased by 247 to - 355. [6] 3.4 Supply and Demand Balance - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and other indicators of polyethylene have changed. The production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 5.1% to 20.5%. The import dependence has shown a downward trend, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates between 8.9% and 19.0%. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. [18] 3.5 Downstream Market - **PE Downstream**: The average starting rate of PE downstream shows certain fluctuations throughout the year, reflecting the changing demand in the PE downstream market. [53] - **PP Downstream**: The average starting rate of PP downstream also fluctuates, indicating the demand situation in the PP downstream market. [56] 3.6 Other Market Indicators - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of L and PP warehouse receipts shows changes over time, which can reflect the inventory and market supply and demand situation to some extent. [14] - **Opening Rates**: The opening rates of PE and PP production show different trends throughout the year, which are related to production capacity utilization and market supply. [32][35] - **Production Cash Flows**: The production cash flows of PE and PP from different sources (coal - based, oil - based, PDH) show fluctuations over time, reflecting the profitability of different production methods. [38][41] - **External Market Prices**: The internal - external price differences of polyolefins and the US - dollar prices of PE and PP in the external market show corresponding changes, which are affected by international market supply and demand and exchange rates. [44][47][50]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Weekly Report - Date: June 20, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, L09 rose 2.12% to close at 7415, with a total position reduction of about 7300 lots; PP09 rose 2.11% to close at 7242, with a total position increase of about 53000 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running above the 20-day moving average, showing a bullish technical trend [5]. - The main position indicator in Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently [5]. - The basis of the L main contract is 45, and that of the PP main contract is 38, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5]. - Fundamentally, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since October last year. On June 21, the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities escalated the Middle East geopolitical crisis, and crude oil is expected to strengthen, which is positive for the cost side. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, the demand for packaging films is weakening, most enterprises are reducing their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity coming on stream in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. The inventory of the polyolefin industry chain is neutral. This week, the main contracts of L and PP are expected to fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: L01 rose 1.61% to 7347, L05 rose 1.58% to 7334, L09 rose 2.12% to 7415; PP01 rose 2.13% to 7188, PP05 rose 2.35% to 7185, PP09 rose 2.11% to 7242 [6]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The price of L delivery products increased by 200 to 7460, and the price of PP delivery products increased by 30 to 7280 [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the L main contract is 45, and that of the PP main contract is 38, with the discount of the futures price narrowing [5] 3.2 Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The report provides a chart of L and PP warehouse receipts, but specific data is not further elaborated [15] - **Inventory Data**: PE comprehensive factory inventory is 556 (a decrease of 13), PE social inventory is 559 (a decrease of 27), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 608 (an increase of 26), and PP social inventory is 245 (an increase of 9) [6] 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [17] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, with the import dependence gradually decreasing. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [19] 3.4 Other Indicators - **开工率**: The report provides charts of PE and PP开工 rates, but specific data is not further elaborated [33][36] - **Profit**: The report provides charts of PE and PP production cash flows, including coal - chemical, oil - based, and PDH production methods, but specific data is not further elaborated [39][41] - **External Market Prices**: The report provides charts of polyolefin internal - external price differences, as well as the US dollar prices of PE and PP, but specific data is not further elaborated [44][47][50] - **Downstream**: The report provides charts of the average downstream开工 rates of PE and PP, but specific data is not further elaborated [53][56]