1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the continuous fermentation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the release of a cease - fire signal by the US, the market's concern about the conflict escalation has cooled, leading to a significant decline in the futures prices of energy and chemical products. The decline in coal prices has also dragged down the prices of olefins. For PE, the supply is expected to tighten further, and the demand is gradually recovering, but the high - price raw materials make the downstream cautious. In the short term, the price still has support under the background of supply contraction. For PP, the supply is expected to continue to shrink, and the export demand is rising. In the short term, the price still has strong support due to the supply reduction and strong support from raw material propane [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 8614 yuan/ton (-190), the closing price of the PP main contract is 9103 yuan/ton (-166). LL North China spot is 8500 yuan/ton (-300), LL East China spot is 8600 yuan/ton (-330), PP East China spot is 9150 yuan/ton (-200). LL North China basis is -114 yuan/ton (-110), LL East China basis is -14 yuan/ton (-140), PP East China basis is 47 yuan/ton (-34) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 76.2% (-3.8%), PP operating rate is 70.0% (-0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is -1195.9 yuan/ton (+415.7), PP oil - based production profit is -1015.9 yuan/ton (+415.7), PDH - made PP production profit is -3107.4 yuan/ton (+13.7) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is -497.9 yuan/ton (+431.4), PP import profit is -1076.1 yuan/ton (+268.3), PP export profit is 254.2 US dollars/ton (-45.0) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 38.9% (+3.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 47.2% (+1.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.1% (+0.9%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.4% (+1.5%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The domestic refineries are in the stage of concentrated load reduction, and the planned maintenance devices from the end of March to April will increase. The supply is expected to tighten. The demand is in the spring plowing season, and the rigid demand is gradually released, but the high - price raw materials make the downstream cautious. The inventory removal channel has not been continuously opened, but the basis has strengthened slightly. In the short term, the price still has support [3] - **PP**: The geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and the supply of raw materials such as crude oil and propane is still a concern. The domestic refineries continue to reduce the load, and the PP operating rate is expected to decline to a low point in recent years. The supply continues to tighten, and the upstream inventory has been significantly reduced. The downstream operating rate is gradually rising, but the high - price PP squeezes the downstream profit, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The export window is open, and the export demand is rising. In the short term, the price still has strong support [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the spread of LL05 - PP05 when it is high [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current situation in Iran remains a crucial factor influencing the prices of olefin products. The market continues to monitor the progress of the US-Iran peace talks. The prices of polyolefins have shown a high-level decline and then consolidation. On one hand, the prospect of the US-Iran talks has changed the previous continuous upward trend in the chemical sector. On the other hand, it is still difficult to effectively reach an agreement, so it is currently in a stage of "fighting while talking" [3]. - For PE, upstream maintenance is still concentrated, and the expected operating rate is expected to further decline. Coupled with the weak arrival of imported resources, the market supply continues to tighten. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate has increased, but the profitability is under pressure, resulting in a low willingness of downstream to accept high prices and a cautious purchasing attitude. In the short term, before the actual withdrawal of US and Israeli troops or the conclusion of the talks, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will still be difficult to be smooth, and the cost support and supply concerns of PE still exist [3]. - For PP, the concerns about raw material supply have intensified, and the current supply support for PP remains strong. Upstream enterprises are concentrated in maintenance, and in addition to the large-scale reduction of refinery loads, the PDH units have also intensified maintenance due to the tightening of propane supply. On the demand side, the high price of PP has squeezed the downstream profits, and the downstream purchasing mentality is cautious, with a weakening in receiving goods. The PP basis has also declined, but the opening of the PP export window has driven the recovery of export demand. In the short term, the reduction in PP supply and the strong support from the cost side of propane will continue to resonate, and the price will still have strong support before the Strait of Hormuz is opened for navigation [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 8715 yuan/ton (-203), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 8975 yuan/ton (-139). The LL spot price in North China is 8300 yuan/ton (-500), the LL spot price in East China is 8600 yuan/ton (-350), and the PP spot price in East China is 8900 yuan/ton (-300). The LL basis in North China is -415 yuan/ton (-297), the LL basis in East China is -115 yuan/ton (-147), and the PP basis in East China is -75 yuan/ton (-161) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 80.1% (-2.3%), and the PP operating rate is 70.5% (+0.4%). The PE oil - based production profit is -542.8 yuan/ton (-491.2), the PP oil - based production profit is -532.8 yuan/ton (-491.2), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -3195.6 yuan/ton (-161.3) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is -456.2 yuan/ton (-155.7), the PP import profit is -1119.1 yuan/ton (-106.2), and the PP export profit is 120.6 US dollars/ton (+13.6) [1]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 35.4% (+8.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 45.6% (+2.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 40.3% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.0% (+0.6%) [2]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content Strategies - Unilateral: LLDPE and PP should be hedged by cautiously going long at low prices. - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP主力合约盘面 are expected to continue strengthening. Due to the Iran situation disturbing oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that the PE and PP will show a strong trend today [4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East, especially the Iran situation, remains unresolved, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted. Many countries have confirmed the release of strategic reserves, and the external crude oil is continuously strong. On the supply - demand side, the spring plowing demand for agricultural films has started, but high - price raw materials have led to many downstream enterprises waiting and watching, with few transactions. Packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, with limited improvement. The operating rate of pipes remains low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8300 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 131, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.6%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.3 tons (down 0.2 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main positions**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Likely factors**: Cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations are bullish factors, while geopolitics is the main bearish logic [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East, especially the Iran situation, remains unresolved, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz basically interrupted. Many countries have confirmed the release of strategic reserves, and the external crude oil is continuously strong. On the supply - demand side, multiple PDH units have stopped for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises are cautious in production due to poor profit margins. The operating rate of bopp has decreased abnormally, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - price raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8650 (down 50), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 22, and the premium - discount ratio is 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.6 tons (down 6.1 tons), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main positions**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Likely factors**: Cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations are bullish factors, while geopolitics and international policy games are the main bearish factors [8] Spot and Futures Market Information - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 8300 (unchanged), the price of the 05 contract is 8431 (down 65), the basis is - 131 (up 65), the warehouse receipt is 7851 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 62.3 tons (down 0.2 tons), and the PE social inventory is 61.9 tons (down 4.4 tons) [9] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 8650 (down 50), the price of the 05 contract is 8628 (down 43), the basis is 22 (down 7), the warehouse receipt is 17610 (down 60), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 59.6 tons (down 6.1 tons), and the PP social inventory is 30.7 tons (down 1.7 tons) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a significant increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain fluctuations. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also changed over time, and the import dependence has generally decreased [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bullish, with both expected to have strong performance today. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the tense situation in Iran and the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, has led to an increase in external crude oil prices at night. The downstream demand for both is recovering, although there are some differences in specific sectors. The inventory levels of both are neutral [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East is tense, and external crude oil prices rose at night. On the supply - demand side, the downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector have significantly increased their开工, the spring plowing demand has started, the packaging film is mainly for rigid demand, and the construction of the pipe sector has gradually started. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 8450 (+700), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is 214, and the premium - discount ratio is 2.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.5 tons (+3.1), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. Due to the geopolitical situation in Iran affecting oil prices, external crude oil prices rose at night, the inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PE will have a strong performance today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly due to geopolitical issues, and the main risk points are significant crude oil price fluctuations and international policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East is tense, and external crude oil prices rose at night. On the supply - demand side, multiple PDH units have stopped for maintenance due to raw material issues. The plastic weaving sector has slightly increased its开工, and enterprise orders have improved, while the BOPP sector's开工 rate has abnormally decreased, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current PP delivery spot price is 8650 (+450), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 347, and the premium - discount ratio is 4.2%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.8 tons (+0.3), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to continue to strengthen. Due to the geopolitical situation in Iran affecting oil prices, external crude oil prices rose at night, the inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PP will have a strong performance today [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil price fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly due to geopolitical issues, and the main risk points are significant crude oil price fluctuations and international policy games [8]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 8450, up 700; the price of the 05 contract is 8236, up 82; the basis is 214, up 618; the warehouse receipt is 8101, down 130; the comprehensive PE factory warehouse inventory is 62.5 tons, up 3.1; the PE social inventory is 66.3 tons, down 11 [9]. - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 8650, up 450; the price of the 05 contract is 8303, up 106; the basis is 347, up 344; the warehouse receipt is 19667, down 142; the comprehensive PP factory warehouse inventory is 65.8 tons, up 0.3; the PP social inventory is 32.4 tons, down 21 [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain trends. The import dependence has generally decreased [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also changed over the years, and the import dependence has generally decreased [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to strengthen today. The escalation of the situation in Iran has disrupted oil prices, providing strong cost support. Although there are issues such as supply exceeding demand and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is at a neutral level [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in the price of external crude oil, providing significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. On the supply - demand side, the resumption of work and demand recovery of downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are relatively slow, and the packaging film has low - load rigid demand operation, expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector has started production one after another. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6720 (+220), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 271, and the premium - discount ratio is - 3.9%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.7 tons (+25.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is reduced, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract's disk followed the daily limit, and it is expected to continue to strengthen. The situation in Iran has disrupted oil prices, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PE will show a strong trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the rise in crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is that supply exceeds demand, and the marginal changes in supply and demand are sensitive [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in the price of external crude oil, providing significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. On the supply - demand side, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable. The demand in the north is recovering relatively fast but with limited growth. The BOPP sector has resumed work quickly but faces pressure from some finished - product inventories due to fierce competition. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6750 (+170), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 248, and the premium - discount ratio is - 3.5%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 74 tons (+34.9), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increased, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract's disk followed the daily limit, and it is expected to continue to strengthen. The situation in Iran has disrupted oil prices, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PP will show a strong trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the rise in crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is that supply exceeds demand, and the marginal changes in supply and demand are sensitive [8]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6720, up 220; the price of the 05 contract is 6991, up 394; the basis is - 271, down 174; the warehouse receipt is 9343, down 85; the comprehensive PE factory warehouse is 62.7, and the social inventory is 67.3 [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6750, up 170; the price of the 05 contract is 6998, up 387; the basis is - 248, down 217; the warehouse receipt is 21531; the comprehensive PP factory warehouse is 74, and the social inventory is 39.2 [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, capacity, production, and net imports have changed. The import dependence has generally decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed, with a consumption growth rate of 1.4% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, capacity, production, and net imports have changed. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed, with a consumption growth rate of 8.4% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Iran has led to a continuous rise in international oil prices, significantly boosting the cost support for polyolefins and driving up the prices on the trading floor. However, subsequent statements from Trump indicate a tendency towards negotiation, and further developments in the situation should be monitored [3]. - For PE, the supply side is facing pressure as there are many short - term restarting plants before the Spring Festival, the operating rate remains high, and the planned maintenance in the later first quarter is limited with an increase in the production of standard products. The demand side is in a seasonal off - season during the Spring Festival, and most downstream enterprises will resume work around the Lantern Festival. The inventory of upstream enterprises has accumulated as expected after the festival, and the over - sold situation before the festival has partially alleviated the supply pressure. Overall, the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamental situation persists, and the short - term cost support is strong, so attention should be paid to the inventory clearance rhythm of the upstream and mid - stream after the festival [3]. - For PP, geopolitical disturbances have pushed up oil prices, and the price of propane in the external market has also risen. The cost support for oil - based and PDH - based PP production has increased. On the supply side, although the PDH profit has slightly recovered, it is still in a deep loss state, and some PDH - based PP plants are under maintenance, so the overall operating rate has limited increase, and the upstream enterprises have accumulated inventory seasonally. On the demand side, it is a seasonal off - season during the Spring Festival, the operating rates of downstream plastic weaving and BOPP have continued to decline, and most terminal downstream enterprises will start work after the Lantern Festival, with a general restocking rhythm. Currently, there is still support on the supply side during the demand off - season, and the short - term cost increase still boosts the price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the inventory clearance rhythm of the upstream and mid - stream after the downstream resumes work [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6,820 yuan/ton (+176), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6,746 yuan/ton (+178). The spot price of LL in North China is 6,650 yuan/ton (+180), in East China is 6,780 yuan/ton (+80), and the spot price of PP in East China is 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is - 170 yuan/ton (+4), in East China is - 40 yuan/ton (-96), and the basis of PP in East China is - 66 yuan/ton (-178) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PE is 88.4% (+1.1%), and the operating rate of PP is 75.8% (-0.1%). The production profit of PE from oil is - 85.7 yuan/ton (-13.5), the production profit of PP from oil is - 345.7 yuan/ton (-13.5), and the production profit of PP from PDH is - 451.3 yuan/ton (+49.4) [1]. 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The import profit of LL is - 104.6 yuan/ton (+4.5), the import profit of PP is - 249.3 yuan/ton (+4.6), and the export profit of PP is - 54.3 US dollars/ton (-0.6) [2]. 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 24.7% (-5.4%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 20.3% (+0.0%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 24.1% (-3.8%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 42.8% (-17.5%) [2]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: Cautiously shrink the L - PP price difference when it is high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical risk premium has boosted oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. However, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the upper - middle reaches after the holiday. For PP, the cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro guidance during the off - season [4][5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and a cautious shorting of the L - PP spread when it is high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,734 yuan/ton (-53), and that of the PP main contract is 6,648 yuan/ton (-45). The spot prices and basis of different regions and varieties have also changed [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 87.3% (+1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (+2.0%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -211.6 yuan/ton (-46.4), and the PP oil - based production profit is -471.6 yuan/ton (-46.4). The PDH - based PP production profit is -546.4 yuan/ton (-29.4) [2]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -109.0 yuan/ton (-2.3), the PP import profit is -253.8 yuan/ton (-2.4), and the PP export profit is -53.7 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (-5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (-18.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.3% (-4.3%) [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure remains high due to the high operating rate and more imported resources. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory in the upper - middle reaches may accumulate after the holiday [4]. - **PP**: The cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak. The supply pressure is acceptable in the short - term, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory accumulation situation should be concerned [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the oil price and raw material propane are strong, providing cost support, and the short - term futures market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [6]. - **Inter - period**: No operation [6]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP spread when it is high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream overall start - up of polyolefins continued to decline. The polyolefin market was affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - sentiment, with the overall situation being weak. The supply - demand fundamentals of PE and PP were not substantially reversed and showed signs of weakening, with large destocking pressure. The short - term disk trends were expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - level guidance and the destocking process [2][3] - For the strategy, it was recommended to wait and see for L/PP in the single - sided trading. For the cross - variety trading, it was advisable to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it was high [4] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - Period Structure - The L main contract closed at 6,777 yuan/ton (- 141), and the PP main contract closed at 6,676 yuan/ton (- 125). The LL North China spot was 6,650 yuan/ton (- 80), the LL East China spot was 6,850 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the PP East China spot was 6,680 yuan/ton (+ 0). The LL North China basis was - 127 yuan/ton (+ 61), the LL East China basis was 73 yuan/ton (+ 141), and the PP East China basis was 4 yuan/ton (+ 125) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 85.9% (+ 0.6%), and the PP operating rate was 73.9% (- 0.9%). The PE oil - based production profit was - 88.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), the PP oil - based production profit was - 498.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 450.8 yuan/ton (- 88.0) [1] 3. Non - Standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - Not elaborated on specific data in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was 13.2 yuan/ton (+ 54.6), the PP import profit was - 282.1 yuan/ton (+ 4.7), and the PP export profit was - 60.1 US dollars/ton (+ 19.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 30.2% (- 4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 38.8% (- 3.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 36.7% (- 5.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 64.6% (+ 0.4%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated on specific data in the text

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates a weakening in pre - holiday demand. For PE, due to the decline in international oil prices, the cost - side support for plastics has weakened. With an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, the polyolefin market has corrected. For PP, the cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious, leading to a correction in both futures and spot prices [2][3]. - The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak. For PE, there is an expected increase in supply pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. For PP, the supply side lacks strong support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market is affected by cost - side and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the sustainability of the rebound is limited. The report recommends a wait - and - see approach for L/PP [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6865 yuan/ton (-13), and that of the PP main contract is 6730 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot is 6730 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (-50), and PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -135 yuan/ton (-57), LL East China basis is -65 yuan/ton (-37), and PP East China basis is -50 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.4% (+0.7%), and the PP operating rate is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 145.4 yuan/ton (+260.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -264.6 yuan/ton (+260.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -388.0 yuan/ton (+117.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 11.4 yuan/ton (-65.3), the PP import profit is -283.9 yuan/ton (+44.8), and the PP export profit is -79.8 US dollars/ton (-5.7) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 34.6% (-1.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 42.1% (-2.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.2% (+0.2%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The decline in international oil prices has led to a weakening of cost - side support. In terms of supply, there are many restarted devices, limited planned maintenance in February, and an increase in imported resources. In terms of demand, it is in the off - season, with a decline in overall downstream operating rates and weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious. On the supply side, PDH is in a deep loss, but there is limited planned maintenance in the future, and some devices are resuming production. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, and there is a seasonal decline in demand with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [3]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for L/PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuations are strong, and the macro - and capital - side disturbances are increasing. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the sustainability of the rebound may be limited [4]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The cost side provides support, and the market sentiment boosts the continuation of a relatively strong performance in the polyolefin market. However, the fundamental supply - demand situation of PE and PP has only slightly improved without a substantial reversal. The short - term rebound in PP prices depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, while PE's rebound may weaken after the sentiment fades. Attention should be paid to macro - level guidance, inventory de - stocking progress, and upstream maintenance dynamics [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6737 yuan/ton (+63), and the PP main contract is 6560 yuan/ton (+46). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE's operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP's is 75.5% (-1.3%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE's oil - based production profit is 87.6 yuan/ton (-90.7), PP's oil - based production profit is - 502.4 yuan/ton (-90.7), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 775.5 yuan/ton (-71.6) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL's import profit is 101.5 yuan/ton (+13.5), PP's import profit is - 332.5 yuan/ton (-28.4), and PP's export profit is - 35.4 US dollars/ton (-1.7) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE's downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), packaging film is 49.0% (+0.6%), PP's downstream plastic weaving is 42.9% (-0.2%), and BOPP film is 63.2% (+0.0%) [2]. II. Market Analysis - **PE**: Cost support drives the bottom - up movement of the market, but the supply - demand fundamentals have limited improvement. Supply pressure may ease slightly, but import volume is expected to increase. Demand remains weak, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. After the sentiment fades, the rebound momentum may weaken [3]. - **PP**: The short - term market sentiment, supply - reduction expectations, and cost support drive the price rebound. The supply pressure eases in the short term, but the demand support may gradually weaken. The overall inventory level is still high, and the sustainability of the rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance [4]. III. Strategy - **Single - side**: Observe LLDPE and cautiously go long on PP for hedging. Pay attention to upstream maintenance dynamics [5]. - **Cross - period**: No strategy is provided. - **Cross - variety**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when the spread is high [5].