交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-3-3 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，2月官方制造业PMI为50.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，重回扩张区间。 中东伊朗局势再度升级，美以展开军事进攻，目前霍尔木兹海峡航运中断，外盘原油跳空高开， 当前伊朗未给出解除封锁时间表，具体对原油后续影响和封锁时间相关，短期对聚烯烃估值支撑 显著。供需端，农膜方面，下游企业复工、需求恢复偏慢，包装膜刚需低负荷开工，预计元宵前 后快速恢复，管材方面陆续开工。当前LL交割品现货价6720（+220），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-271，升贴水比例-3.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存62.7万吨（+25.9），偏空； ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-02-25 油价上涨抬升成本，聚烯烃偏强运行 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6820元/吨（+176），PP主力合约收盘价为6746元/吨（+178），LL华北现货为 6650元/吨（+180），LL华东现货为6780元/吨（+80），PP华东现货为6680元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-170元/吨（+4）， LL华东基差为-40元/吨（-96）， PP华东基差为-66元/吨（-178）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为88.4%（+1.1%），PP开工率为75.8%（-0.1%）。 美伊地缘局势持续升温，地缘扰动加剧持续助推国际油价上涨，聚烯烃成本端支撑抬升明显，提振盘面价格；但 随后特朗普亦有所表示倾向谈判，关注后续局势进一步动向。 PE方面，供应端，节前短期重启装置偏多，PE开工延续高位，而一季度后期计划检修量亦有限，且标品排产有所 回升，PE供应端压力仍存；需求端，PE下游春节放假进入季节性淡季，多数于元宵前后复工，等待PE地膜旺季复 工补库备货；库存端上游节后库存累积符合预期，部分节前超卖部分缓解PE供应压力。整体看塑料供强需弱的基 本面延续，短期成本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical risk premium has boosted oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. However, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the upper - middle reaches after the holiday. For PP, the cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro guidance during the off - season [4][5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and a cautious shorting of the L - PP spread when it is high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,734 yuan/ton (-53), and that of the PP main contract is 6,648 yuan/ton (-45). The spot prices and basis of different regions and varieties have also changed [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 87.3% (+1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (+2.0%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -211.6 yuan/ton (-46.4), and the PP oil - based production profit is -471.6 yuan/ton (-46.4). The PDH - based PP production profit is -546.4 yuan/ton (-29.4) [2]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -109.0 yuan/ton (-2.3), the PP import profit is -253.8 yuan/ton (-2.4), and the PP export profit is -53.7 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (-5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (-18.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.3% (-4.3%) [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure remains high due to the high operating rate and more imported resources. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory in the upper - middle reaches may accumulate after the holiday [4]. - **PP**: The cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak. The supply pressure is acceptable in the short - term, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory accumulation situation should be concerned [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the oil price and raw material propane are strong, providing cost support, and the short - term futures market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [6]. - **Inter - period**: No operation [6]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP spread when it is high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream overall start - up of polyolefins continued to decline. The polyolefin market was affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - sentiment, with the overall situation being weak. The supply - demand fundamentals of PE and PP were not substantially reversed and showed signs of weakening, with large destocking pressure. The short - term disk trends were expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - level guidance and the destocking process [2][3] - For the strategy, it was recommended to wait and see for L/PP in the single - sided trading. For the cross - variety trading, it was advisable to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it was high [4] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - Period Structure - The L main contract closed at 6,777 yuan/ton (- 141), and the PP main contract closed at 6,676 yuan/ton (- 125). The LL North China spot was 6,650 yuan/ton (- 80), the LL East China spot was 6,850 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the PP East China spot was 6,680 yuan/ton (+ 0). The LL North China basis was - 127 yuan/ton (+ 61), the LL East China basis was 73 yuan/ton (+ 141), and the PP East China basis was 4 yuan/ton (+ 125) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 85.9% (+ 0.6%), and the PP operating rate was 73.9% (- 0.9%). The PE oil - based production profit was - 88.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), the PP oil - based production profit was - 498.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 450.8 yuan/ton (- 88.0) [1] 3. Non - Standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - Not elaborated on specific data in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was 13.2 yuan/ton (+ 54.6), the PP import profit was - 282.1 yuan/ton (+ 4.7), and the PP export profit was - 60.1 US dollars/ton (+ 19.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 30.2% (- 4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 38.8% (- 3.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 36.7% (- 5.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 64.6% (+ 0.4%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated on specific data in the text

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates a weakening in pre - holiday demand. For PE, due to the decline in international oil prices, the cost - side support for plastics has weakened. With an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, the polyolefin market has corrected. For PP, the cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious, leading to a correction in both futures and spot prices [2][3]. - The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak. For PE, there is an expected increase in supply pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. For PP, the supply side lacks strong support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market is affected by cost - side and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the sustainability of the rebound is limited. The report recommends a wait - and - see approach for L/PP [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6865 yuan/ton (-13), and that of the PP main contract is 6730 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot is 6730 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (-50), and PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -135 yuan/ton (-57), LL East China basis is -65 yuan/ton (-37), and PP East China basis is -50 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.4% (+0.7%), and the PP operating rate is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 145.4 yuan/ton (+260.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -264.6 yuan/ton (+260.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -388.0 yuan/ton (+117.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 11.4 yuan/ton (-65.3), the PP import profit is -283.9 yuan/ton (+44.8), and the PP export profit is -79.8 US dollars/ton (-5.7) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 34.6% (-1.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 42.1% (-2.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.2% (+0.2%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The decline in international oil prices has led to a weakening of cost - side support. In terms of supply, there are many restarted devices, limited planned maintenance in February, and an increase in imported resources. In terms of demand, it is in the off - season, with a decline in overall downstream operating rates and weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious. On the supply side, PDH is in a deep loss, but there is limited planned maintenance in the future, and some devices are resuming production. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, and there is a seasonal decline in demand with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [3]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for L/PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuations are strong, and the macro - and capital - side disturbances are increasing. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the sustainability of the rebound may be limited [4]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The cost side provides support, and the market sentiment boosts the continuation of a relatively strong performance in the polyolefin market. However, the fundamental supply - demand situation of PE and PP has only slightly improved without a substantial reversal. The short - term rebound in PP prices depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, while PE's rebound may weaken after the sentiment fades. Attention should be paid to macro - level guidance, inventory de - stocking progress, and upstream maintenance dynamics [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6737 yuan/ton (+63), and the PP main contract is 6560 yuan/ton (+46). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE's operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP's is 75.5% (-1.3%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE's oil - based production profit is 87.6 yuan/ton (-90.7), PP's oil - based production profit is - 502.4 yuan/ton (-90.7), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 775.5 yuan/ton (-71.6) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL's import profit is 101.5 yuan/ton (+13.5), PP's import profit is - 332.5 yuan/ton (-28.4), and PP's export profit is - 35.4 US dollars/ton (-1.7) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE's downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), packaging film is 49.0% (+0.6%), PP's downstream plastic weaving is 42.9% (-0.2%), and BOPP film is 63.2% (+0.0%) [2]. II. Market Analysis - **PE**: Cost support drives the bottom - up movement of the market, but the supply - demand fundamentals have limited improvement. Supply pressure may ease slightly, but import volume is expected to increase. Demand remains weak, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. After the sentiment fades, the rebound momentum may weaken [3]. - **PP**: The short - term market sentiment, supply - reduction expectations, and cost support drive the price rebound. The supply pressure eases in the short term, but the demand support may gradually weaken. The overall inventory level is still high, and the sustainability of the rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance [4]. III. Strategy - **Single - side**: Observe LLDPE and cautiously go long on PP for hedging. Pay attention to upstream maintenance dynamics [5]. - **Cross - period**: No strategy is provided. - **Cross - variety**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when the spread is high [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated January 12, 2026, provided by Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, back in the expansion zone after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. Recent political unrest in Iran has pushed up international oil prices. In the supply - demand side, greenhouse film demand is falling while mulch film demand is rising, and packaging film orders and production are increasing. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6600 (-20), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [4] Other Indicators - The basis of LLDPE 2605 contract is -74, with a premium - discount ratio of -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal. PE comprehensive inventory is 42.5 million tons (+2.6), neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish. The main position of LLDPE is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter, geopolitical factors driving up oil prices, neutral industrial inventory, and short - term recovery in downstream demand, PE is expected to trend slightly stronger today [4] Factors - Bullish factors include cost support and crude oil rebound. Bearish factor is that downstream demand is weaker year - on - year. The main logic is oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand [6] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion zone, OPEC+ maintaining production plan, and rising oil prices due to geopolitical factors. PDH device maintenance has increased. In the supply - demand side, plastic weaving demand is weak and mainly for rigid needs, and pipe demand is average. The current PP delivery spot price is 6380 (+0), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [7] Other Indicators - The basis of PP 2605 contract is -134, with a premium - discount ratio of -2.1%, indicating a bearish signal. PP comprehensive inventory is 46.8 million tons (-2.3), neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish. The main position of PP is net short and reducing short positions, bearish [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter, geopolitical factors driving up oil prices, neutral industrial inventory, downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, and increasing PDH device maintenance, PP is expected to trend sideways today [7] Factors - Bullish factors include cost support and crude oil rebound. Bearish factor is the off - season of downstream demand. The main logic is oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand [9] Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures - For LLDPE, the spot delivery price is 6600 (-20), and the 05 contract price is 6674 (+46). For PP, the spot delivery price is 6380 (+0), and the 05 contract price is 6514 (+30) [10] Inventory - LLDPE: Warehouse receipts are 11365 (unchanged), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 42.5 million tons (unchanged), and social inventory is 48.5 million tons (unchanged). PP: Warehouse receipts are 15445 (-20), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 46.8 million tons (unchanged), and social inventory is 30.4 million tons (unchanged) [10] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has boosted the short - term market sentiment. PE and PP prices have continued to rebound, but the improvement in their supply - demand fundamentals is still limited. PE is facing a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with inventory reduction pressure. PP has a supply reduction expectation, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price rebound space is limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,642 yuan/ton (+63), PP main contract at 6,486 yuan/ton (+63). LL North China spot was 6,500 yuan/ton (+130), LL East China spot at 6,530 yuan/ton (+40), PP East China spot at 6,250 yuan/ton (+30). LL North China basis was - 142 yuan/ton (+67), LL East China basis - 112 yuan/ton (-23), PP East China basis - 236 yuan/ton (-33) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 83.2% (+0.6%), PP operating rate was 76.7% (-0.1%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 174.8 yuan/ton (+90.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 335.2 yuan/ton (+90.8), PDH - made PP production profit was - 815.4 yuan/ton (-23.8) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was 200.9 yuan/ton (+11.8), PP import profit was - 279.2 yuan/ton (+31.8), PP export profit was - 31.5 US dollars/ton (-4.0) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 39.0% (-4.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.4% (+0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has boosted the short - term sentiment. However, the improvement in PE's supply - demand fundamentals is limited. The supply pressure still exists due to new device production and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, while the demand is weak as it is in the off - season. The pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand continues, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory [3]. - **PP**: The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has led to a warmer market sentiment. The price has continued to rebound due to supply reduction expectation and cost support. The supply is expected to decrease due to more temporary maintenance, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price rebound space is limited [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: LLDPE and PP are recommended to be on the sidelines. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has not been improved, but the geopolitical situation has intensified cost - side disturbances. The price continues to be relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of upstream device maintenance [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [5].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polyolefin has increased month - on - month due to the decline in maintenance losses during the new capacity window period, while the demand side is restricted by the seasonal off - season and shows obvious weakness. At the beginning of the year, the capital sentiment was high, but the overseas geopolitical conflict could not change the pattern of crude oil surplus. The supply of polyolefin has recovered and the demand has entered the inventory digestion cycle in the off - season, so the upside space is limited [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The L2605 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed up at 6,642 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton (1.84%), with a trading volume of 566,000 lots and a decrease of 2,207 lots in positions to 505,678 lots. The PP2605 contract of polypropylene closed at 6,486 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan, a gain of 1.60%, with a decrease of 1,191 lots in positions to 520,400 lots [5][6] 3.2 Industry News - On January 7, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 610,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons or 7.58% from the previous working day, compared with 575,000 tons in the same period last year. - Most PE market prices rose. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere was average. With the increase of some ex - factory prices, traders raised their prices accordingly, and downstream buyers made cautious purchases. The LLDPE prices in the North China, East China, and South China regions were in the ranges of 6,430 - 6,600 yuan/ton, 6,450 - 6,800 yuan/ton, and 6,600 - 6,850 yuan/ton respectively. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The overall shipment of production enterprises was smooth, the propylene offers were adjusted steadily, and there were still cases of premium in the actual order auctions of some enterprises. The downstream factories maintained their purchasing enthusiasm, and the overall market trading atmosphere was good. - The PP market showed an obvious upward trend, and the price center of some markets increased by 50 - 70 yuan/ton. The offers of traders followed the increase significantly, and the market center increased. The downstream factories made cautious purchases and were still resistant to high - priced goods, resulting in poor market transactions. The regional prices were as follows: the mainstream prices of drawn PP in the North China, East China, and South China regions were 6,130 - 6,250 yuan/ton, 6,230 - 6,400 yuan/ton, and 6,150 - 6,450 yuan/ton respectively [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, and the data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PE, short - term sentiment boost and cost - end disturbances drive the market to stop falling and rebound, but the improvement of supply - demand fundamentals is still limited. The supply pressure increases due to new production and expected increase in low - priced imports, while the demand is weak as it is in the off - season, and the de - stocking pressure remains [3]. - For PP, short - term market sentiment improvement, supply - side reduction expectations and cost - end support drive the price to stop falling and rebound. However, there are still supply - demand contradictions, and the short - term rebound space is expected to be limited due to insufficient demand improvement [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 6579 yuan/ton (+130), the PP main contract closed at 6423 yuan/ton (+93). LL North China spot was 6370 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot was 6490 yuan/ton (+10), PP East China spot was 6220 yuan/ton (+30). LL North China basis was - 209 yuan/ton (-160), LL East China basis was - 89 yuan/ton (-120), and PP East China basis was - 203 yuan/ton (-63) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 83.2% (+0.6%), and PP operating rate was 76.7% (-0.1%). PE oil - based production profit was 84.0 yuan/ton (+19.5), PP oil - based production profit was - 446.0 yuan/ton (+19.5), and PDH - based PP production profit was - 791.6 yuan/ton (+37.2) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was 189.1 yuan/ton (+89.8), PP import profit was - 311.0 yuan/ton (+40.1), and PP export profit was - 27.4 US dollars/ton (-5.1) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 39.0% (-4.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.4% (+0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (-0.6%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content