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今日观点集锦-20251009
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 03:09
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Core View of the Report - The stock - bond market is optimistic about the upward trend. Maintain the current position for stock index long positions, and hold treasury bond long positions lightly as the treasury bond trend weakens due to market interest rate fluctuations [3] - The steel market runs steadily during the long - holiday. There may be a short - term price boost after the holiday, but demand improvement is limited [4] - The market expects a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in October. Gold is expected to oscillate strongly due to risk - aversion sentiment [5] - The log spot market is strong. With expected weekly increase in arrivals and rising daily shipments, logs are expected to oscillate within a range [6] - Rubber prices are restricted by increased supply expectations and weakened cost support. Natural rubber will continue to oscillate weakly [7] - With large imports and high inventory of soybeans in October, the market for soybeans and soybean meal is expected to oscillate bearishly [8] - Oil prices are supported by supply risks. PX and PTA follow crude oil fluctuations, and MEG will oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term with some fundamental support [9] Summary by Related Catalogs No relevant content
化工日报-20250715
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 11:18
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefins: Not explicitly rated - Pure Benzene: Not explicitly rated - Styrene: Not explicitly rated - Polyester (PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip): Not explicitly rated - Chlor - alkali (PVC, Liquid Caustic Soda): PVC ☆☆☆, Liquid Caustic Soda not explicitly rated [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Not explicitly rated Report's Core View - The overall performance of the chemical futures market is complex, with different products showing various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and macro - environment [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - The main contract has narrow - range fluctuations. Import arrivals increase, coastal MTO device operation declines slightly, and ports are accumulating inventory. The inland - to - coastal arbitrage window closes. Short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [2] Urea - The futures price drops. Supply remains abundant, agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and compound fertilizer production enterprise operation declines. Upstream inventory transfers to downstream and ports, and there are rumors of new export quota expectations [3] Polyolefins - Futures prices decline. For polyethylene, device maintenance decreases, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, device maintenance intensity weakens, and supply is expected to increase slightly. The overall supply - demand is weak [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil price decline weakens cost support. Spot prices fall slightly, and ports continue to accumulate inventory. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late period, but pressure in the fourth quarter. Suggest differential trading [5] Styrene - The futures price drops. The cost - end crude oil market has a complex situation, and supply is sufficient while demand is weak [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices decline due to oil price drops. PX supply - demand improves, but PTA demand weakens. PTA has a repair drive. Ethylene glycol is expected to be bullish in the short - term. Short fiber is bullish, and bottle chip orders are weak [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC spot prices weaken, with new device production and inventory accumulation. Liquid caustic soda prices rise, with cost support and inventory decline [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices drop due to low market expectations. Cost increases, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is affected by macro - environment and supply pressure [9]