Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to outperform the industry in terms of coal prices due to its high-quality coking coal resources, despite a significant decline in sales driven by lower downstream demand [1]. Financial Performance - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with projected total revenue of 45.29 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 18.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.11 billion yuan, down 54.1% [2]. - In Q1 2025, total revenue is expected to be 9.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.46%, with a net profit of 681 million yuan, down 28.33% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are 0.54, 0.59, and 0.66 yuan respectively, with a target price of 7.5 yuan based on a 14x PE valuation for 2025 [2]. Production and Sales - In 2024, raw coal production is projected to increase slightly to 47.22 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 2.47%, while total coal sales are expected to drop significantly to 25.60 million tons, a decrease of 20% [3]. - Specific sales figures include: raw coal sales of 1.22 million tons (up 56.41%), coking coal sales of 5.89 million tons (down 20.30%), and mixed coal sales of 7 million tons (down 35.13%) [3]. Pricing and Cost Management - The average selling price of the company's coal is expected to decline by 5.43% to 1,037.23 yuan per ton, which is better than the industry average decline of 11.42% for main coking coal prices [4]. - The company demonstrated strong cost control with operating costs in Q1 2025 down 17.51% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter, alongside a period expense ratio of 12.15% [4]. Future Growth Potential - The company announced a successful bid for exploration rights in Shanxi, acquiring coal and associated bauxite resources with a total coal reserve of 952.78 million tons and planned production capacity of 8 million tons per year [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, with a continued downward trend in Q1 2025, primarily driven by decreased coal sales and pressure on other business segments [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 45.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.1 billion yuan, down 54.10% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 9.03 billion yuan, a decline of 14.5%, and a net profit of 680 million yuan, down 28.33% [1]. Coal Production and Sales - The decline in coal sales was the main reason for the performance drop in 2024, with total coal sales of 25.6 million tons, including significant decreases in various coal types: coking coal down 20.3%, fat coal down 17.67%, and lean coal down 12.37% [2]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 5.43% to 1,037 yuan per ton, with coking coal priced at 1,544 yuan per ton, also down 5.4% [2]. Power and Other Business Segments - The power segment turned profitable in 2024, with revenue of 6.87 billion yuan, despite a decrease in electricity sales by 5.94% [3]. - The coking and building materials segments continued to face challenges, with coking revenue down 9.46% to 8.7 billion yuan and building materials revenue down 30.44% to 280 million yuan [3]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 36.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years, alongside a forecasted net profit of 2.12 billion yuan for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's focus on optimizing and strengthening its core business while improving quality and efficiency, indicating that performance improvements are expected [4][5] - The company has faced challenges such as declining sales and prices, leading to a decrease in gross profit margins in its coal business [4] - Despite the challenges, the company is positioned to benefit from its rich coking coal resources and low-cost mining operations, which may provide resilience in pricing [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 45.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.11 billion, down 54.10% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 9.03 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.46%, but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 159.8% in net profit [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,037 per ton, down 5.43% from 2023, while the average cost per ton increased by 9.55% to 495 [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit, with projections of 2.76 billion, 3.27 billion, and 3.49 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will improve from 0.49 in 2025 to 0.62 in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [7] - The company is actively pursuing quality coal asset acquisitions, which are expected to contribute to future growth [5][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to improve its performance through optimizing its main business and enhancing efficiency. The report highlights the company's efforts to strengthen its coal business and its recent acquisition of exploration rights for coal and associated bauxite resources, which will support sustainable development [4][5] - The company has faced challenges such as declining sales and prices, leading to a decrease in gross profit margin. However, it maintains a strong position in the market due to its high-quality coking coal resources [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 45.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.11 billion, down 54.10% year-on-year. The operating cash flow was 9.06 billion, a decline of 33.84% [1][2] - For the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.03 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.46%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.68 billion, down 28.33% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,037 per ton, a decrease of 5.43% compared to 2023, while the average cost per ton increased by 9.55% to 495 [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.76 billion, 3.27 billion, and 3.49 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.49, 0.58, and 0.62 [7] - The report indicates that the company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 13.24, 11.16, and 10.45 respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for growth [7]