CPO&光纤观点-0223 1、光纤光缆：春节假期，北美光纤和DCI明星股表现强势，其中康宁 （+6%），Ciena（+14%），Nokia（+12%），重视本轮DCI需求提升对北美高端光纤产能的挤占，国内头部企业 光纤价差有望进一步缩小，持续推荐：光纤-#长飞（A+H）、亨通、特发等，DCI-#德科立。 2、CPO&MPO：本周英伟达将发布最新财报，有望对CPO板块形成事件催化。 < 后续主要关注3月中旬GTC大会等。 建议关注#天孚通信 以及MPO产业链（CPO+光纤涨价共振）#太辰光、致尚科技、蘅东光 等。 3、传统光模块：我们认为CPO短期不会替代传统光模块的市场，头部企业业绩兑现度高。 此外，CSP客户推进的NPO方案主要替代铜缆市场，对头部光模块企业而言是增量市场。 根据催化和市场风格切换，上半年我们依旧看好可插拔光模块#旭创/新易盛 主升机会。 4、薄膜铌酸锂：单波400G是3.2T可插拔模块重要技术方案，薄膜铌酸锂调制优势明显，市场关注度稳步提升，3 月底OFC大会可能有相关催化，建议关注#天通股份、安孚科技、光库科技等。 CPO&光纤观点-0223 1、光纤光缆：春节假期，北美光纤和DCI明 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN/LNOI) is positioned as a foundational material platform for next-generation photonic chips, benefiting from advancements in AR glasses and optical communication [4][5] - The market for lithium niobate is expanding due to its superior piezoelectric, ferroelectric, and electro-optic properties, with China accounting for 42% of global production capacity [4][24] - The demand for TFLN is driven by the growth of AR glasses and the transition in optical communication towards high-speed data center interconnects [5][39] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction to Lithium Niobate and Thin-Film Lithium Niobate - Lithium niobate (LiNbO₃) is recognized for its multifunctional properties, making it a key material in integrated and guided optics [14] - Thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) is produced as sub-micron films, enhancing device integration density and performance compared to traditional bulk lithium niobate [3][14] 2. Industry Trends & Competitive Landscape 2.1 Industry Trends - The rapid development in 5G/6G, AI, and data centers is driving the demand for lithium niobate, which is becoming a leading material in photonics [23] 2.2 Competitive Landscape - China is the largest producer of lithium niobate, with companies like TianTong and JiNan JingZheng leading in production capabilities [4][24] 3. Potential Growth Markets: AR Glasses and Optical Communication 3.1 AR Glasses - TFLN technology enables ultra-fast electro-optic response and significant improvements in color switching speed for AR glasses, with a projected global shipment of 1.06 million units by 2025 [5][35] 3.2 Optical Communication - The shift towards high-speed optical communication is creating a new growth cycle, with TFLN being crucial for supporting high data rates and low power consumption [5][39] 4. Material Characteristics of Thin-Film Lithium Niobate - TFLN offers advantages over silicon photonics and indium phosphide, including higher bandwidth and better linearity, making it suitable for high-density integration [45] 5. Key Industry Players - Key companies include: - **Sumitomo Metal Mining**: Leading in large-scale lithium niobate wafer production [49] - **TDK**: Innovating in the direct growth of lithium niobate films on standard semiconductor substrates [49] - **TianTong Co.**: Focused on the development of lithium niobate crystals for RF filters and optical devices [49] - **JiNan JingZheng**: A pioneer in the thin-film lithium niobate sector, breaking foreign monopolies [49] - **NanZhi Semiconductor**: Specializing in high-quality lithium niobate crystals for advanced applications [50]

Summary of Conference Call on Thin Film Lithium Niobate (TFLN) and Related Companies Industry Overview - The thin film lithium niobate (TFLN) is identified as a crucial component for achieving single-wave 400G technology, as the silicon photonics path has reached its physical limits [1] - TFLN is recognized for its high electro-optic coefficient and bandwidth capabilities, with laboratory tests achieving over 260Gbaud [1] Key Points on TFLN and Its Applications - The "silicon photonics + TFLN" heterogeneous integration scheme is essential for 3.2T optical modules, balancing cost control with performance enhancement [1] - TFLN is expected to see significant usage in CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and OIO (Optical Interconnects) scenarios [1] Technical Implementation - The integration process involves slicing TFLN, using Dieto Wafer or Wafer to Wafer techniques, and bonding it to SOI (Silicon On Insulator) wafers to produce high-speed modulator chips [3] - The TFLN serves as the modulation core, while the silicon photonics part handles passive functions like routing and coupling, leveraging CMOS technology for cost efficiency [3] Company Insights Anfu Technology - Anfu Technology has a stake in Yilong Micro, which successfully completed tri-party testing of the world's first single-wave 400Gbps heterogeneous integrated chip in Q2 2025 [3] - The company is set to launch a pilot production line with an annual capacity of 500,000 chips in Q3 2025, focusing on TFLN modulator integration [3] - The expected price for a single heterogeneous integrated modulator for a 3.2T module is projected to reach $200, indicating high margins and significant market potential [3][4] Tiantong Co., Ltd. - Tiantong holds over 50% of the domestic market share for TFLN chips and serves as a supplier to companies like Anfu [4] - The value of products corresponding to each optical module is estimated to be several hundred RMB, with net profit margins exceeding 40% [4] Competitive Landscape - The thin film lithium niobate industry in China is noted for its completeness, providing a significant advantage for domestic manufacturers compared to the indium phosphide industry, which is primarily based in the US and Japan [2] Financial Outlook - Anfu's main business, Nanfu Battery, is projected to generate a profit of 1 billion RMB, contributing to a market valuation of 20 billion RMB [3][4] - The optical communication business is also expected to add another 20 billion RMB in market value [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and investment strategies of several mutual funds, highlighting their focus on sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and carbon neutrality, which are expected to yield significant returns in the current market environment [3][10][15]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Holdings - The "Zhonghang Opportunity Leading" fund reported a remarkable performance of 127.17% in the first three quarters, ranking 4th among actively managed equity funds, with a total scale of 132.31 billion yuan, nearly a 12-fold increase from the previous quarter [5][10]. - The "Yongying Medical Innovation Selection" fund achieved a performance of 114.01%, ranking in the top 20 among actively managed equity funds, with a scale of 78.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 157.28% from the previous quarter [10][13]. - The "Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme" fund recorded a performance of 111.79% in the first three quarters, with a stock position of 89.95% [15][17]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The "Zhonghang Opportunity Leading" fund primarily invests in the AI computing power industry chain, with a stock position of 88.56%. Key holdings include Yingweike, Xinyi Sheng, and Zhongji Xuchuang, all of which have seen significant price increases this year [5][8]. - The "Yongying Medical Innovation Selection" fund focuses on innovative pharmaceuticals, with major holdings in Kangfang Bio and Xinda Bio, both exceeding 700 million yuan in market value [10][12]. - The "Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme" fund emphasizes manufacturing, new energy, and new technologies, with significant profits reported in the third quarter [15][17]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Trends - The article suggests that the growth potential for AI computing power remains high, with a focus on long-term investment opportunities in emerging technologies [8][17]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to become a key investment theme, similar to the explosive growth seen in the CXO sector from 2018 to 2019 [13]. - The AI technology cycle is anticipated to last at least 5 to 10 years, with significant investment opportunities in robotics and new industrial technologies [17][23].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the AI industry and its related technologies, particularly focusing on the optical and semiconductor sectors, including CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and thin-film lithium niobate technologies [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments AI Industry Dynamics - Short-term market fluctuations are normal, with significant structural rotation observed. Leading overseas computing chain companies like Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are expected to show strong performance and valuation support [1][2]. - The third quarter report window in October is anticipated to reinforce AI industry logic, potentially leading to a new market rally [1][4]. - After October, valuations for leading overseas computing chain companies are expected to switch to over 30 times next year's earnings, while current valuations remain below 20 times due to rapid performance release [1][4]. Domestic Computing Chain - The domestic computing chain, particularly in the edge computing sector, is also noteworthy. The fourth quarter is seen as a catalyst-rich period, with significant investments from major players like Alibaba Cloud and Huawei [1][5]. - Events such as the ByteDance AI conference and Huawei Mate 80 launch are expected to catalyze market movements, leading to a bullish trend in the autumn [1][5]. CPO and Thin-Film Lithium Niobate Technologies - CPO technology aims to reduce power consumption in data centers by eliminating DSP in optical modules, potentially lowering power usage by 30%-40% [1][6][7]. - Thin-film lithium niobate technology enhances modulation rates and is suitable for high-performance applications like 3.2T [3][24]. - The industry is expected to see a shipment volume of around 30,000 units by 2026, primarily led by NVIDIA [14][15]. Market Acceptance and Challenges - The acceptance of CPU solutions in North American data centers is gradually increasing, with major clients including Google, Meta, and Microsoft [15]. - Current challenges for CPO technology include low yield rates (around 50%), which lead to higher costs. If yield rates improve to 80%, market penetration is expected to increase [14][17]. Additional Important Insights - The optical module industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant measures being taken to reduce power consumption, such as removing DSP and improving connection methods [8][9]. - The thin-film lithium niobate industry chain consists of several stages, including crystal growth, wafer cutting, chip manufacturing, and sales to optical module manufacturers [29][30]. - Companies like Nio Optoelectronics and Guangke Technology are noted for their competitive edge in the thin-film lithium niobate chip sector [30]. Conclusion - The AI and optical technology sectors are poised for significant growth, driven by advancements in CPO and thin-film technologies. The upcoming quarterly reports and major industry events are expected to catalyze market movements and reinforce investment opportunities in these areas [1][4][5].