作者：繁晟 2020年，艾瑞咨询联合天下秀（600556.SH）发布首份《中国红人新经济行业发展报告》。彼时，红人新经济市场规模强势突破万亿元，"网红第一股"如涵 控股、"红人经济第一股"天下秀相继登陆资本市场；2025年红人新经济市场规模的预测值更是一度被推高至8万亿元，行业"长红之势"风光无两。 然而，随着中国广告市场规模增速大幅放缓，这让红人经济赛道开始出现分化，竞争加剧，这也让上市公司开始遭遇资本困境，比如如涵控股上市仅2年， 便在长期破发及亏损困境中退市，而在天下秀的市值则缩水逾八成至不足百亿元。 在此背景下，天下秀开始启动出海战略。2025年8月22日，该公司发布公告称，为深入推进全球化战略布局，打造国际化资本运作平台，提升国际品牌形象 和综合竞争力，该公司正在筹划发行H股并在港交所上市。 在资本市场"失宠"且业绩持续下滑的情况下，天下秀此次赴港上市能令其"翻红"吗？ 红人经济真的"经济"吗？ 2000年左右，WEB2.0时代开启，网红与经济迎来"第一次亲密接触"，但由于当时的红人主要集中在博客、BBS论坛，变现渠道有限，且仅限于图文领域的 极少数"顶流"。 直至2009年， 随着移动互联网兴起、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][16] Core Views - The company is expected to recover its performance driven by AI, overseas expansion, and innovative business models despite short-term fluctuations in earnings [5] - The company reported a revenue of 1.84 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and a net profit of 36 million yuan, down 19.3% year-on-year, primarily due to market conditions and reduced business scale [5] - The gross margin improved to 19.1%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to enhanced management of the supply chain and strengthened synergy [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 3.80 billion, 4.04 billion, and 4.25 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 4.59 billion and 4.79 billion yuan [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to 80 million, 100 million, and 120 million yuan, down from 120 million and 160 million yuan [5] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-sales ratios of 2.6, 2.4, and 2.3 for 2025-2027 [5] Business Development - As of H1 2025, the company's influencer marketing platform WEIQ has registered 219,000 merchant clients, an increase of 11,000 from the end of 2024, and 3.545 million influencer accounts, with professional influencers and MCN institutions growing by 29% and 11% respectively [6] - The company is extending its business model by integrating industry experience, technology, and resources to enhance the influencer economy ecosystem, exploring value opportunities for influencers [6] - The introduction of an AI version of WEIQ in H1 2025 enables intelligent selection and precise matching of influencer resources, reducing marketing costs and providing a refined management ecosystem [7] Market Expansion - The company is establishing overseas offices in locations such as Hong Kong and Tokyo, forming a "one-stop" overseas marketing team to cover comprehensive brand strategies for international clients [7] - The combination of AI capabilities and overseas business is expected to create synergistic effects that will support the company's future growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the advertising market while also highlighting opportunities in the influencer economy and digital marketing [16][18]. Financial Performance - The company's operating income for the first half of 2025 was approximately 1.84 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.01% compared to the same period last year [3]. - The total profit for the period was approximately 42.34 million RMB, down 14.30% year-on-year [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 36.38 million RMB, reflecting a 19.28% decline compared to the previous year [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was negative at approximately -185.11 million RMB, a 6.70% increase in outflow compared to the same period last year [3]. - The company's total assets decreased by 3.47% to approximately 5.23 billion RMB compared to the end of the previous year [3]. Industry Context - The digital economy sector is receiving increasing support from government policies aimed at promoting healthy industry development and digital transformation [16]. - The advertising industry is encouraged to innovate with new technologies and business models, particularly in digital advertising and influencer marketing [16]. - The rise of the influencer economy is seen as a significant opportunity, with the market for influencer marketing expanding as brands increasingly leverage social media platforms for advertising [16][18]. Business Model and Strategy - The company operates a platform-based business model focused on the influencer economy, connecting content creators (influencers) with brands and businesses [6][7]. - The WEIQ platform serves as a marketing service that utilizes big data to match brands with suitable influencers, enhancing marketing efficiency and reducing costs for businesses [7][19]. - The company is actively exploring international markets, establishing offices in locations such as Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore to support global marketing efforts [17][18]. Technological Innovation - The company has integrated AI technology into its services, enhancing the efficiency of influencer marketing and data services [16][19]. - The WEIQ platform has launched an AI version that improves the matching process between brands and influencers, allowing for a more streamlined marketing experience [18][19]. - The company is also developing innovative products in the AIGC space, focusing on AI-driven marketing solutions that enhance content creation and distribution [13][14]. Market Expansion - The number of registered merchants on the WEIQ platform has grown to over 219,000, indicating a strong demand for influencer marketing services [18]. - The platform has also seen an increase in the number of registered influencers, reaching approximately 3.55 million, with a significant portion being professional influencers capable of fulfilling marketing tasks [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][6][23] Core Viewpoints - The company's revenue is expected to decline by 3.2% in 2024, primarily due to changes in customer structure and market conditions, with a projected revenue of 4.07 billion yuan [1][9] - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be 51 million yuan, a decrease of 44.5%, impacted by credit impairment losses of 76 million yuan and asset impairment losses of 10 million yuan [1][9] - The company is enhancing its influencer marketing platform efficiency and expanding its business layout in the influencer economy [2][17] - The commercialization of AIGC (AI-Generated Content) is gradually taking shape, with initial progress in overseas markets [3][18] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects a revenue of 4.07 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 51 million yuan, down 44.5% [1][5] - The gross margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 17.2%, while the overall expense ratio slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 13.6% [12][20] Business Development - The active customer base and number of influencers on the marketing platform continue to grow, with 208,000 registered merchant customers and 3.466 million influencer accounts by the end of 2024 [2][17] - The company is building a decentralized creator economy ecosystem and has launched innovative services such as IMSOCIAL Accelerator and AI content creation tools [2][17] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 120 million, 140 million, and 160 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 125.1%, 18.5%, and 17.7% [4][21] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.06, 0.08, and 0.09 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 73x, 61.6x, and 52.3x [4][21]