成长型公司，不破不立。2018-2024 公司营业收入和净利润 6 年 CAGR 分别 为 16.32%和 21.00%，显示出公司较强的成长力。2025 年 H1 公司因渠道改 革导致业绩低谷，收入同比-9.3%，归母净利润同比-55.2%。我们认为这是短 期的改革阵痛，一旦改革成功，公司将摆脱以往孱弱的经销渠道，而更高效的 经销和直营渠道有利于对公司新品的承接，有助于打破以往新品与渠道不匹配 的桎梏。 区域动力：2024 年下半年公司海外业务获得突破性增长，越南销售额的大增 让我们看到了公司海外增长的空间。25 年因越南税收问题导致 25H1 海外业务 增长略不及预期，但报表端境外收入依然获得了 161%的高增长。我们认为， 越南为样板市场，印尼、马来等地区均有更大的市场空间，一旦获得突破将推 动海外收入高增。 产品动力：19-24 年综合果仁及豆果 5 年 CAGR 为 32.37%，且 24 年依然保 持了 39.8%的增速，为公司第一大品类（营收占比 31.21%）。25 年 H1 综合 果仁收入同比下降 19.92%，主要因春节错期和渠道调整所致，不代表品类受 限，认为综合果仁及豆果的市场空间明显 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 13 日 甘源食品（002991.SZ） 费用投入加大、成本上行，Q2 经营表现承压 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布 2025 年半年报，Q2 公司收入同比-3.4%、归母净利润同比-71.0%， 线下传统渠道下滑，叠加品牌费用投入&成本上行，业绩表现承压。展望 Q2， 国内 7 月份动销环比改善，电商、量贩、会员商超等贡献增量，海外方面公司 积极探索越南、印尼、马来等海外国家新渠道，有望在 Q3、Q4 逐步有体现， 成本端下半年整体相对平稳，H2 营收与利润率有望逐季改善趋势。我们调整 公司 25-27 年归母净利润预测为 2.4 亿、2.7 亿、3.1 亿，25-27 年 EPS 分别 为 2.53 元、2.94 元、3.34 元，对应 26 年 20x PE，下调为"增持"评级。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 1848 | 2257 | 2339 | 2577 | 28 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in Q1 2025, attributed to reduced low-price gift box promotions during the Spring Festival, a decrease in traditional supermarket sales, and a high revenue base from the same period last year [4] - Despite the challenges, the company has shown strong growth in its comprehensive nut and bean series, with significant contributions from overseas markets [3][9] - The company is expected to improve its profit margins gradually as overseas market expansion continues and operational efficiencies are realized [8][9] Financial Performance Summary - In FY 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14.32% year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 504 million yuan, down 13.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.21% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for FY 2024 was 35.46%, which decreased to 34.32% in Q1 2025, reflecting pressure from rising raw material costs and increased expenses [5][7] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.598 billion yuan and 3.032 billion yuan, respectively, and has revised EPS estimates to 4.38 yuan and 5.13 yuan for the same years [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in Q1 2025, attributed to reduced e-commerce activities and traditional retail performance, but showed a year-on-year increase when comparing Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [4] - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, which has shown significant growth from a low base, indicating increasing influence and recognition [9] - Profit margins are expected to improve gradually in subsequent quarters as operational efficiencies are realized and overseas market contributions grow [9] Financial Performance Summary - In FY 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 376 million yuan, up 14.32% [2] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 504 million yuan, down 13.99% year-on-year, with a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 42.21% [2] - The company's gross margin for FY 2024 was 35.46%, which decreased to 34.32% in Q1 2025 due to rising raw material costs and increased expenses [5][7] - The company’s sales expenses increased significantly in Q1 2025, reflecting investments in overseas market expansion and brand promotion [6] Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue from various product lines in FY 2024 included 705 million yuan from mixed nuts and beans, 524 million yuan from green peas, and 302 million yuan from sunflower seeds, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 39.80%, 12.56%, and 10.48% [3] - Revenue from overseas markets grew by 1762% year-on-year, highlighting the potential for future growth in international sales [3] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 2.598 billion yuan, with EPS estimates revised to 4.38 yuan [10] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.032 billion yuan in 2026 and 3.461 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 5.13 yuan and 5.72 yuan [10]

Event Overview - In FY24, the company achieved revenue of 2.257 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 376 million, up 14.32% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 341 million, an increase of 16.91% year-on-year. In Q4 24, revenue was 652 million, up 22.05% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 99 million, down 13.91% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 93 million, down 10.40% year-on-year. In Q1 25, revenue was 504 million, down 13.99% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 53 million, down 42.21% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 46 million, down 45.14% year-on-year [1]. Analysis and Judgment - The company saw strong growth in the comprehensive nut and bean series, with revenue from various product lines in FY24 as follows: comprehensive nuts and beans 705 million (+39.80%); green pea series 524 million (+12.56%); sunflower seeds 302 million (+10.48%); broad beans 277 million (+19.72%); other series 439 million (+21.17%); and other businesses 10 million (-3.84%) [2]. - By region, revenue in FY24 was as follows: East China 658 million (+45%); Southwest 365 million (+49%); Central China 339 million (+17%); e-commerce 239 million (+11%); North China 235 million (-28%); South China 160 million (+22%); Northwest 97 million (+2%); Northeast 71 million (-9%); overseas 83 million (+1762%); and other businesses 10 million (-4%) [2]. Q1 25 Revenue Pressure - Revenue in Q1 25 faced pressure due to several factors: 1) significant reduction in low-priced gift box live-streaming business during the Spring Festival to ensure healthy development of e-commerce; 2) decline in traditional supermarket business; and 3) timing differences of the Spring Festival leading to a high revenue base in the same period last year. Comparing Q4 24 and Q1 25, revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, indicating stability [3]. Cost and Profitability - The company's gross margin for FY24, Q4 24, and Q1 25 was 35.46%, 35.14%, and 34.32%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.78, 0.90, and 1.07 percentage points. The decline in gross margin was primarily due to significant promotional efforts during the year-end festival and a substantial increase in procurement costs for key raw materials like palm oil since Q1 25 [4]. - On the expense side, the company's expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses in FY24 were 12.67%, 3.75%, 1.42%, and -0.50%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.18, -0.03, +0.17, and +0.33 percentage points. In Q1 25, these ratios were 17.34%, 4.87%, 1.23%, and -0.35%, with year-on-year changes of +4.24, +1.39, +0.17, and +0.22 percentage points. The increase in sales expense ratio was attributed to the company's expansion into overseas markets and increased brand promotion efforts [5]. - The net profit margin for FY24, Q4 24, and Q1 25 was 16.67%, 15.19%, and 10.47%, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 1.14, 6.34, and 5.11 percentage points. The net profit margin excluding non-recurring items was 15.12%, 14.34%, and 9.09%, with year-on-year declines of 0.68, 5.20, and 5.16 percentage points. The pressure on profitability was due to both cost and expense factors [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to improve profitability quarter by quarter, with a focus on breakthroughs in overseas markets. The significant growth in overseas markets reflects the company's increasing influence and recognition. Despite the pressure from raw material price fluctuations and increased overseas expenses, profitability is anticipated to improve as the overseas market expands [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - Based on the latest financial report, the company's revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted down to 2.598 billion and 3.032 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 revenue at 3.461 billion. The EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 4.38 and 5.13, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 EPS at 5.72. The PE ratios corresponding to the closing price of 64 yuan per share on May 30 are 15, 12, and 11 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [9].