1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of eggs still has a rebound expectation, but the space may be limited due to high supply; the focus of the futures market game is whether the spot price increase can cover the premium of the futures. Currently, it is the traditional egg stocking season, and the downward space of the spot price is limited. There is a small increase expectation but no large increase space in terms of driving force. The futures market position is high, and it is judged to be in the bottom - building stage, but the space is not optimistic, and the rhythm may be repeated. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices first declined and then stabilized, with a slight increase in the second half of the week. After the temperature dropped, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm increased, but the sufficient supply in the producing areas limited the increase space. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, in Guantao at 2.53 yuan/jin, in Huilongguan in the sales area dropped to 3.12 yuan/jin, and in Dongguan dropped to 2.77 yuan/jin [11]. - **Restocking and Culling**: In September, the national restocking volume decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Since September, the egg price has been weaker than normal, and the culling of old chickens has increased significantly, with the culling chicken price falling to a multi - year low, and the chicken age dropping to 499 days [11]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6%. In the future, the inventory is expected to increase, with a peak of 1.373 billion in November this year, and the supply side still points to an oversupply [11]. - **Demand Side**: The pre - festival stocking for the Double Festivals is coming to an end, and the post - festival consumption is dull. With the temperature drop, the egg storage conditions improve, and the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory before the Spring Festival [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Last week, domestic egg prices first declined and then stabilized, with a slight increase in the second half of the week. After the temperature drop, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm increased, but the sufficient supply in the producing areas limited the increase space [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price dropped after the festival, the futures basis returned to a low level, driving the monthly spread to decline [23]. - **Culling Chicken Price**: The egg price is not strong during the peak season, the culling of old chickens has increased, and the culling chicken price has dropped significantly, but the chicken age remains at a high level of 499 days [26]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Egg Chicken Restocking**: In September, the national restocking volume decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1% [33]. - **Culling Chicken Slaughter**: Since September, the egg price has been weaker than normal, and the culling of old chickens has increased significantly, with the culling chicken price falling to a multi - year low, and the chicken age dropping to 499 days, but still far from excessive culling [36]. - **Inventory Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6%. In the future, the inventory is expected to increase, with a peak of 1.373 billion in November this year, and the supply side still points to an oversupply [38][41]. 3.4. Demand Side - The pre - festival stocking for the Double Festivals is coming to an end, and the post - festival consumption is dull. With the temperature drop, the egg storage conditions improve, and the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory before the Spring Festival [46] 3.5. Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and month - on - month, and the profit is at a seasonal low level [51] 3.6. Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content available Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, there is a resonance of multiple negative factors such as large supply, low consumption, and wet and cold weather constraints. The current market sentiment is pessimistic, and egg prices have returned to the lows of the plum - rain season, showing the weakest performance in the same period in many years. The previous futures market had expectations for post - holiday restocking, but after the expectations were disappointed, it continued to trade and squeeze the premium. Although the culling of laying hens has accelerated, it is difficult to match the scale of new supply in the short term. Considering that the negative feedback of the spot market is still continuing, it is advisable to maintain a bearish view on the near - term contracts. In the medium term, after the pessimistic sentiment eases, there is a possibility of a rebound correction driven by restocking. In the long term, the supply pressure is large, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short sell [11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot market**: In September, domestic egg prices first rose and then fell, in line with the seasonal pattern. At the beginning of the month, stimulated by consumption themes such as the start of school, the market sales improved. After the middle of the month, the market risk - control sentiment increased, and the supply pressure remained unchanged. During the National Day, the restocking consumption was lower than expected, inventory accumulated, and prices continued to fall, with the decline significantly higher than expected. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 2.8 yuan per catty, with a monthly high of 3.6 yuan per catty; the price in Guantao decreased by 0.29 yuan to 2.49 yuan per catty, with a monthly high of 3.6 yuan per catty; the price in Huilongguan in the sales area decreased by 0.38 yuan to 3.05 yuan per catty; the price in Dongguan increased by 0.13 yuan to 2.94 yuan per catty. It is expected that egg prices will be weakly sorted at a low level in the first half of October and may have a slight rebound space in the second half due to restocking [11] - **Restocking and culling**: Affected by the continuous low egg prices and breeding losses, the national restocking volume in September continued to decline to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Since September, egg prices have been weaker than normal, and due to seasonal factors, the culling of old hens has increased significantly, the price of culled hens has fallen to a multi - year low, and the average age of hens has further decreased to 499 days, but it is still far from excessive culling [11] - **Inventory and trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than previously expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6% compared with 1.288 billion last year. Based on previous restocking calculations, considering normal culling, the inventory will still have room to increase in the future, with a peak expected to reach 1.373 billion in November this year, a slight increase from the current level. Although there will be a decline later, the inventory will still be high, and the supply side will still face an oversupply situation in the long term [11] - **Demand side**: The restocking for the Double Festival is coming to an end, and post - holiday consumption tends to be flat. However, as the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory [11] - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound in November and December; for arbitrage, there is currently no recommendation [13] 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - **Spot price trend**: In September, domestic egg prices first rose and then fell, in line with the seasonal pattern. Specific prices in different regions have different changes. It is expected that egg prices will be weakly sorted at a low level in the first half of October and may have a slight rebound space in the second half due to restocking [20] - **Basis and spread**: After the holiday, as the spot price fell, the futures basis returned to a relatively low level, driving the spread between contracts to fall [23] - **Culled hen price**: Egg prices are not strong during the peak season. Currently, the number of old hens being culled has increased, and the price of culled hens has significantly declined. Attention should be paid to its sustainability [26] 3.3 Supply Side - **Laying hen restocking**: Affected by the continuous low egg prices and breeding losses, the national restocking volume in September continued to decline to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1% [33] - **Culled hen culling**: Since September, egg prices have been weaker than normal, and due to seasonal factors, the culling of old hens has increased significantly, the price of culled hens has fallen to a multi - year low, and the average age of hens has further decreased to 499 days, but it is still far from excessive culling [36] - **Inventory and trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than previously expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6% compared with 1.288 billion last year. Based on previous restocking calculations, considering normal culling, the inventory will still have room to increase in the future, with a peak expected to reach 1.373 billion in November this year, a slight increase from the current level. Although there will be a decline later, the inventory will still be high, and the supply side will still face an oversupply situation in the long term [38][41] 3.4 Demand Side - The restocking for the Double Festival is coming to an end, and post - holiday consumption tends to be flat. However, as the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs improve. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory [46] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has declined month - on - month. In terms of profitability, it is at a relatively low seasonal level [51] 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]