瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.26」 鸡蛋市场周报 存栏下滑预期支撑 期价低位略有反弹 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收涨，2603合约收盘价为2988元/500千克，较前一周+42元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：养殖端持续亏损使得补栏积极性下滑且老鸡淘汰量有所增加，蛋鸡存栏小幅回落，市 场氛围略有好转。且现货价格持续偏低，养殖端仍处于亏损状态，市场补栏积极性欠佳，利好远 期价格。不过，当前蛋鸡在产存栏仍然处于高位，老鸡淘汰略有放缓，高产能仍然牵制近月市场 价格表现。总体而言，市场博弈于弱现实与强预期之间。短期近月合约或处于宽幅震荡状态,远月 在产能下滑预期下，表现有望好于近月，可轻仓试多远月。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 图2、大商所 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 鸡蛋市场周报 老鸡淘汰略有放缓 鸡蛋近月继续走低 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 图2、大商所鸡蛋指数期货前二十名持仓变化 来源：大商所 wind 来源：大商所 瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收跌，2603合约收盘价为2946元/500千克，较前一周-78元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：养殖端持续亏损使得补栏积极性下滑且老鸡淘汰量有所增加，蛋鸡存栏小幅回落，市 场氛围略有好转。且现货价格持续偏低，养殖端仍处于亏损状态，市场补栏积极性欠佳，利好远 期价格。不过，当前蛋鸡在产存栏仍然处于高位，老鸡淘汰略有放缓，市场氛围仍然偏悲观，高 产能仍然牵制近月市场价格表现。本周期价继续走低。远月合约博弈于弱现实与强预期之 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.12」 鸡蛋市场周报 市场情绪仍然悲观 鸡蛋近月再度下探 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收跌，2603合约收盘价为3024元/500千克，较前一周-56元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：养殖端持续亏损使得补栏积极性下滑且老鸡淘汰量有所增加，蛋鸡存栏小幅回落，市 场氛围略有好转。且现货价格持续偏低，养殖端仍处于亏损状态，市场补栏积极性欠佳，利好远 期价格。不过，当前蛋鸡在产存栏仍然处于高位，老鸡尚未出现超淘，高产能仍然牵制近月市场 价格表现。总体而言，市场博弈于弱现实与强预期之间。短期近月合约或处于宽幅震荡状态,可轻 仓试多远月。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走势 来源：大商所 wind 来源：大商所 瑞达期货研究院 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3153 | 3124 | 29 | 01-05 | -398 | -457 | 59 | | JD05 | 3551 | 3581 | -30 | 05-09 | -503 | -489 | -14 | | JD09 | 4054 | 4070 | -16 | 09-01 | 901 | 946 | -45 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, but the number of laying hens in production remains high. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. Considering that the spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, the January main contract has given a certain premium. With the approaching of pre - holiday stockpiling, the downward space is relatively limited, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3282, up 57 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3553, up 4; JD09 closed at 3944, up 22. The 01 - 05 spread was - 271, up 53; the 05 - 09 spread was - 391, down 18; the 09 - 01 spread was 662, down 35 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.46, up 0.02; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.07, unchanged. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.25, down 0.00. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.72, unchanged; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.34, up 0.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The main producing area average price was 2.94 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main selling area average price was 3.12 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Prices in different regions had a mix of increases and stability [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.81 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of culled chickens was 3.81 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04; the price of laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2325 yuan/ton, up 8; the average price of bean meal was 3088 yuan/ton, unchanged; the laying hen compound feed was 2.55 yuan/jin, up 0.01 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit per feather was - 0.99 yuan, up 1.39 from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price Trends**: The main producing area average price increased slightly, and the main selling area average price remained stable. The national mainstream prices had a mix of increases and stability, with egg prices continuing to fluctuate and consolidate, and normal sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In October, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The estimated inventory from November 2025 to February 2026 is 1.359 billion, 1.355 billion, 1.346 billion, and 1.333 billion respectively [5]. - **Chicken Seedling and Culled Chicken Data**: In October, the monthly output of chicken seedlings from sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. In the week of November 21, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 20.21 million, an increase of 3.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 492 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales and Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7472 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate within a short - term range. One can consider building long positions in the January contract at low prices [8]. - **Arbitrage and Option Strategies**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg market fluctuated and closed lower. The 2601 contract closed at 3,235 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 56 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Under the pressure of high production capacity, the futures price weakened again recently and may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The egg market fluctuated and closed lower this week. The 2601 contract closed at 3,235 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 56 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The laying - hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market sentiment has improved slightly. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and there has been no excessive culling of old hens. High production capacity remains the main concern of the market. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Recently, under the restraint of high - production - capacity pressure, the futures price has weakened again and may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures contract 1 fluctuated and declined. The position volume was 208,963 lots, an increase of 28,593 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 17,934, compared with - 7,153 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,039 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 38 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active egg contract 1 futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 196 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The egg 1 - 5 spread was reported at - 242 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of November 13, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.89 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.77 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the laying - hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The new - chick index nationwide was reported at 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [39]. - **Culling Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the culled laying - hen index nationwide was reported at 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The average age of culled chickens nationwide was reported at 507 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of November 13, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,259.8 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,020 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of November 7, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.47 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Chickens**: As of November 7, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was reported at 8.06 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In September 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1,631.15 tons compared with 11,584.64 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared with 13,121.03 tons in the previous month [62]. 4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: A figure on the change in price - earnings ratio is provided, but no specific analysis content is available [64].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, and the demand is generally weak. In the short - term without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the recent increase in the amount of culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - For futures contracts, JD01 closed at 3347, up 29 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3497, up 31; JD09 closed at 3861, up 12. In terms of spreads, 01 - 05 was - 150, down 2; 05 - 09 was - 364, up 19; 09 - 01 was 514, down 17. Regarding the ratios, 01 egg/corn was 1.56, up 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal was 1.11, up 0.01, etc. [2] 2. Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin. The prices in different regions showed various trends, with most of the national mainstream prices remaining stable, some falling, and some rising slightly. The average price of culled chickens was 4 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged [2][4] 3. Fundamental Information - The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased, and in the main sales areas also decreased. The national mainstream prices were mostly stable, with some fluctuations in different regions. In October, the national laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a slight decrease from the previous month but a 5.5% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease. The number of culled chickens in the main production areas in the week of October 31 was 20.53 million, an 11% increase from the previous week, and the average culling age was 494 days, a 5 - day decrease. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 2.1%. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.2 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin. The production and circulation inventories remained unchanged [4][5][6] 4. Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens is high, and the demand is weak. Without significant improvement in the short - term, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the increase in culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7] 5. Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, it is also recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Egg Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [1] - Key Words: Egg Market, Supply and Demand, Price Forecast Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: As of the end of October, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.359 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%, ending 9 consecutive months of growth. It is expected that the egg - laying hen inventory will remain high in the first quarter of the fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [6][22][38]. - Demand side: In October, egg sales were weak year - on - year and did not show a month - on - month recovery. In November, demand is unlikely to be concentrated, and overall demand is weak due to factors such as the substitution of vegetables and pork and market pessimism [6][33][38]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in November. For futures, the upside is limited, and it is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset. The fundamental inflection point may appear as early as the beginning of next year [6][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Price - Spot: In October, the spot price bottomed out and rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in November as the market waits for accelerated elimination to balance high inventory [8]. - Futures: The main contract switched to the 12 - contract. The price followed the spot trend. It is recommended to treat the current rise as a rebound and consider short - selling at high prices. The fundamental improvement may take a long time [9]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Elimination of Laying Hens - Price: In October, the average daily price of Hy - Line Brown culled hens was 4.39 yuan/jin, continuing to decline from September and at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The price has been trending down since August [10][18]. - Quantity: As of October 30, the weekly culling volume has been stable in September - October, slightly higher than the previous three years. The culling age has advanced, and it is estimated that the culling volume will remain stable or slightly increase in November [18][20]. 2.2 Inventory and Replenishment - Inventory: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. It is expected to remain high in the early fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [22]. - Replenishment: In October, the monthly output of layer chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, a decrease from September and a significant decrease compared with the same period in 2024. The replenishment enthusiasm may be affected by feed costs in the future [23]. - Laying Rate: In late October, the laying rate was about 91.94%, following the seasonal pattern [25]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - In October, the breeding profit was weak, at a very low level compared with the same period in previous years. It is expected to continue to operate at a low level in November [29][32]. 3. Demand Side - Sales Volume: In October, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas continued to be weak year - on - year and did not show a month - on - month recovery. In November, demand is expected to remain weak [6][33][38]. - Inventory: As of October 30, the inventory in the circulation link was at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory was still high, reflecting the weak demand this year [36]. - Substitute Prices: The pig price is expected to remain stable or slightly increase in the fourth quarter, currently at a low level. Vegetable prices are expected to rise seasonally in November - December, which may support egg prices [36][37]. 4. Later Outlook and Strategy - Spot: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in November [40]. - Futures: It is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset. For options, a wide - straddle double - selling strategy is recommended. The risk lies in the unexpected rise of spot prices in low - price areas [40]. - Strategy: For farmers and spot traders, the spot price may fluctuate at a low level in November. For futures speculators, it is recommended to use interval rolling short - selling operations and pay attention to the spot price in low - price areas [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, egg prices rebounded from a low level. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 3146 yuan per 500 kilograms, a increase of 60 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - Egg prices are at a low level, and the breeding side has a certain sentiment of supporting prices. Coupled with the drop in temperature, which is conducive to the storage and transportation of eggs, the sales speed in low - price areas has accelerated, supporting the rebound of spot prices. Under the boost of rising spot prices, the near - month contracts have also strengthened significantly. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still high, and old hens have not been over - culled. High production capacity is still the main concern of the market, which may limit the upside space [6]. - The egg futures price has shown a low - level rebound trend recently. However, the pressure of high production capacity still exists, which may limit the rebound space [6]. - The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and pay attention to the amount of old hen culling [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The 2512 contract of eggs rebounded from a low level, with the closing price at 3146 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 60 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Low egg prices, favorable storage conditions, and increased sales speed support the spot price rebound. But high laying - hen inventory and non - over - culled old hens may limit the upside [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, focus on old hen culling volume [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 12 - contract of egg futures rebounded from a low level. The position was 176,581 lots, a decrease of 57,622 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 8860, and the net short position decreased slightly compared to last week's - 22,065 [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 2933 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 11 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active 12 - contract futures price and the spot average price was - 213 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of eggs was - 148 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a low level in the same period [26]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of October 30, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.96 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 5.3 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory and Restocking**: As of September 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The national new - chick index was 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [38]. - **Culling Index and Age**: As of September 30, 2025, the national culling laying - hen index was 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The national culling - hen age was 507 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of October 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2242.16 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2980 yuan per ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of October 24, 2025, the laying - hen breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53]. - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of October 24, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 2.65 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was 8.58 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In September 2025, China's egg export volume was 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1631.15 tons compared to the same period last year (11,584.64 tons), a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared to the previous month [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of eggs is under pressure, and November is a relatively off - season in the second half of the year. Considering the current spot price has fallen to a historical low, the short - term egg price is likely to remain at the current level. If the active culling of laying hens continues, the future supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to continue to be weak without significant improvement, while the pre - Spring Festival contracts of the far - term may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [5][39][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the spot price of eggs was weak. The average price in the main producing areas dropped to around 2.7 yuan/jin, and then rebounded slightly after restocking. In the main selling areas, it dropped to around 2.97 yuan/jin and then rebounded to around 3.09 yuan/jin. - In November, the egg futures contracts were also weak. The supply of laying hens in production remained high, and the demand was average after the double festivals, resulting in weak egg prices. The November contract dropped to around 2748 at the lowest [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The supply side is still under pressure, and November is a relatively off - season. Given the current low spot price, the short - term egg price is likely to stay at the current level. If the active culling of laying hens continues, the supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to be weak, while the far - term pre - Spring Festival contracts may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, considering the weak oscillation of near - term contracts, shorting on rallies can be considered. - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In October, the spot price of eggs rebounded. The average price in the main producing areas reached around 2.91 yuan/jin and showed signs of stabilization, while in the main selling areas, it reached around 3.14 yuan/jin and then stabilized. - The October egg futures contracts were strong. Although the peak demand season was average, the significant increase in the spot price led to a rise in the futures price. However, due to the high inventory of laying hens in production, the increase in the futures price was limited [10]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Supply Side** - In September, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. Without considering delayed or concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production from October 2025 to January 2026 is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively. - In October, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 39.33% (low - middle level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 44.1% (medium level), and small - sized eggs was 16.57% (high - middle level). - The egg - laying rate in October changed little, remaining at a low level in the same period over the years, currently about 91.78%. It is expected to gradually increase as the weather gets colder. - In September, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises (accounting for about 50% of the national total) was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year decrease. The current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market is 2.73 yuan per chick, a decrease of 0.16 yuan per chick from the previous month. - Due to the weak egg price and average peak - season demand, the culling enthusiasm increased, and the culling volume rose. From October 24th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.02 million, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in that week was 499 days, the same as the previous week [11][12][14]. - **Demand Side** - In October, the demand was average, and the seasonal peak was weaker than in previous years. Although the recent demand has rebounded, it is still at a low - middle level in the same period over the years. As of October 25th, the weekly egg sales volume in the national representative selling areas was 7498 tons, a 1.6% increase from the previous week. - From January to September 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 36.5877 trillion yuan, a 4.5% year - on - year increase. In September, the absolute value of catering revenue was 450.9 billion yuan, a 0.9% year - on - year increase [21]. - **Inventory** - As of October 17th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, the same as the previous week [21]. - **Cost and Breeding Profit** - The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain stable in the short term. In October, the corn price was 2242 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 2984 yuan/ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2464 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.71 yuan/jin for one jin of eggs. - As of October 23rd, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 24th, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was - 0.51 yuan per hen, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [28]. - **Substitutes** - The vegetable price index continued to rise. On October 26th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 108.23. Although the vegetable price has increased significantly recently, it is at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. - The pork price fluctuated this month with little overall change. As of October 26th, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 15.17 yuan/kg. The low vegetable price has a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level fluctuating pork price has a relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [34]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The supply side is expected to be under pressure in November as the inventory of laying hens in production remains high. The demand in November is in the off - season, and the market performance is average. Considering the current low spot price, the short - term egg price is likely to remain at the current level. - Due to the previous low egg price and market losses, the culling enthusiasm of laying hens has increased. If the active culling continues, the future supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to be weak without significant improvement, while the pre - Spring Festival contracts of the far - term may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [39][40].