Group 1: Report Summary and Investment Suggestions - The egg market showed an upward trend this week, with the closing price of the 2605 contract at 3,502 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 93 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week [6]. - The current school openings and factory resumptions, along with early Qingming Festival stockpiling, have significantly boosted off - season demand. High feed costs support the market, and farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to a rebound in spot prices. However, the rising spot prices weaken the expectation of a decline in laying - hen inventory, and the slow culling of old hens results in sufficient supply and future supply pressure. The egg futures market is expected to remain volatile, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - The egg futures May contract fluctuated upwards, with a trading volume of 187,480 lots, an increase of 22,347 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 traders was +25,899, compared to +576 last week, indicating an increase in net long positions [13]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 20 [17]. Spot Price and Basis - The egg spot price was reported at 3,418 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 124 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the May active contract futures price and the spot average price was - 84 yuan per ton [23]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The spread between the May and July egg futures contracts was 60 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively high level compared to the same period [27]. Related Commodity Spot Prices - As of March 26, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was 15.65 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was 4.78 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65% [33]. Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply - side: Inventory and Replenishment - As of December 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new - chick index was 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. Culling of Laying Hens - As of December 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The average age of culled hens was 500 days [44]. Feed Raw Material Prices - As of March 26, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2,452.55 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3,260 yuan per ton [48]. Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of March 27, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.26 yuan per hen. As of March 20, 2026, the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.9 yuan per kilogram [54]. Egg - laying Hen Chick and Culled Hen Prices - As of March 20, 2026, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 10.52 yuan per kilogram [58]. Egg Monthly Exports - In February 2026, China's total egg exports were 10,796.37 tons, an increase of 81.63 tons or 0.76% year - on - year compared to 10,714.73 tons in the same period last year, and a decrease of 3,741.98 tons month - on - month compared to 14,538.34 tons in the previous month [63]. Group 4: Representative Company - The report also mentioned the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the egg market showed a narrow - range oscillation with a slight decline. The 2605 contract closed at 3409 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 24 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The supply side has a high inventory, and the elimination of old hens is slow, resulting in sufficient overall supply. However, with schools fully reopened and factories resuming work, the pre - Qingming Festival stocking has started in advance, significantly boosting the off - season demand. The feed cost has increased, and farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding up prices, leading to a rebound in the spot price. The rise in the spot price further weakens the expectation of a decline in laying hen inventory. The egg market will maintain an oscillating trend, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The egg price showed a narrow - range oscillation with a slight decline. The 2605 contract closed at 3409 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 24 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has high inventory and slow old - hen elimination, but demand is boosted by school reopenings, factory resumptions, and pre - Qingming stocking. Feed costs have increased, and farmers are holding up prices. The spot price has rebounded, weakening the expectation of a decline in laying hen inventory. The market will maintain an oscillating trend, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The May contract of egg futures oscillated slightly downwards. The trading volume was 165,133 lots, a decrease of 3,126 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 was +576, and the change in net long positions was not significant [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 5 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,294 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 167 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the May active contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 115 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The spread between the May and July contracts of egg futures was reported at - 34 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was at a medium level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of March 19, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 16.11 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was reported at 4.85 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory and Replenishment**: As of December 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new - chick index was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. - **Elimination Index and Age**: As of December 31, 2025, the national elimination laying hen index was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national elimination hen age was reported at 500 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of March 19, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,455.29 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,370 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of March 13, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.33 yuan per chicken. The average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Egg Chicken and Elimination Chicken Prices**: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.5 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination chickens in the main production areas was reported at 10.4 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In January 2026, the total egg export volume was 14,538.34 tons, an increase of 3,317.31 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 29.56%. It decreased by 360.38 tons compared to the same period last month [64]. 4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [66].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the egg market last week was the serious mismatch between supply and demand rhythms after the Spring Festival. The supply pressure increased due to high laying - hen inventory, released holiday stockpiles, and rising egg - laying rates, while demand dropped sharply. As a result, egg prices fell rapidly, and the industry turned from profit to loss [1]. - The near - month contracts have a basis repair drive, but the upside is restricted by actual supply - demand pressure. The short - term supply remains high, but cost support limits the downside of near - month contracts. The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [3]. - As the spot price falls, farmers are more willing to cull old chickens. Market expectations are that festival备货 in the second and third quarters will boost demand. Rising chick prices have spurred farmers' restocking intentions, which may affect egg production in 4 - 5 months [9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The egg market last week had a "strong supply, weak demand" pattern. High laying - hen inventory, released holiday stockpiles, and rising egg - laying rates increased supply, while reduced food factory purchases, fewer group - meal orders, and traders' inventory digestion led to a sharp drop in demand. Egg prices fell, and the industry turned from profit to loss [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: After the Spring Festival, egg demand weakened, and high laying - hen inventory led to loose supply, suppressing the futures price. - **Price Range**: The price will fluctuate between 3300 - 3600. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Enter a long position with a light position when the price drops to around 3300 and exit with a profit when it reaches around 3600. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for the basis strategy [8]. 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The main contract price is predicted to be between 2800 - 3400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.35% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 29.77%. - **Risk Management Strategies for Egg Enterprises**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting futures, selling call options, buying put options, etc., with specific contract recommendations, trading directions, recommended ratios, and entry intervals [10]. Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: By early March, egg losses per catty widened to 0.35 yuan, and the egg price was below the cost line. Feed costs rose slightly, and farmers' reluctance to sell provided bottom support. Based on previous chick sales, the laying - hen inventory in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to decline, supporting the long - term contracts. Low restocking in the second half of 2025 means fewer newly - laying hens in March - April. If the culling of old chickens accelerates, the medium - term laying - hen inventory will decline, improving supply - demand expectations [11]. - **Negative Information**: In February, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.296 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.62% and a year - on - year increase of 5.28%. The production and circulation inventories were high, and the market faced great pressure to sell off stocks [11]. 2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg quotes in the sales areas [12]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the main egg 04 contract opened at 3429 yuan/500KG at the beginning of the week and closed at 3389 yuan/500KG at the end of the week, a 1.17% decline. The open interest was 176,000 contracts, an increase of 32,739 contracts from last week [15]. 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure Analysis - **Spread Structure**: The egg spread shows a contango structure. - **Basis Structure**: After the end of the stocking demand, the decline in the egg spot price was greater than that of the futures price, causing the basis to shrink [17][19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Profit Tracking of the Industry Chain - The egg - chicken farming profit is gradually turning into a loss due to price drops, and farmers' willingness to cull chickens is increasing. This week's farming profit decreased compared to last week. Feed prices remained stable, and corn prices fluctuated at a high level, with the farming cost remaining the same [22]. Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Laying - Hen Inventory**: In February, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.296 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while the proportions of reserve and to - be - culled hens decreased. The egg - laying rate remained the same [25]. - **Chick Situation**: In February, chick sales increased slightly. The total sales of commercial chicks from 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information were about 43.3 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.185% [27]. - **Chicken Culling Situation**: There is no detailed information about the chicken culling situation in the text. 5.2 Consumption Situation - This week, the egg sales in the main sales areas increased compared to last week, and the egg arrivals at the Guangdong wholesale market increased [32]. 5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the production and circulation inventories are in the inventory - consumption stage, with available inventory days of 1.31 days and 1.45 days respectively [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [40] Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 2.41% from February 24 to March 5, 2026, exceeding the index by approximately 2.69 percentage points [11] - The report highlights that about half of the sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with planting, breeding, and agricultural product processing increasing by 7.9%, 2.89%, and 0.06% respectively, while feed, animal health, and fishery sectors saw declines of 0.66%, 2.85%, and 5.35% [12][13] - The overall price of live pigs has decreased, leading to a negative shift in breeding profitability, which is expected to drive further capacity reduction [40] Industry Data Summary - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-breed pigs fell from 12.58 CNY/kg to 10.48 CNY/kg between February 20 and March 5, 2026. The cost of corn rose to 2413.73 CNY/ton, while soybean meal slightly decreased to 3126 CNY/ton. As of March 6, 2026, the profit from self-bred pigs was -237.98 CNY/head, and from purchased piglets was -58.89 CNY/head, indicating a decline in profitability [21][23][26] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of meat chicken and egg chicken chicks increased to 2.85 CNY/chick and 3.5 CNY/chick respectively. The average price of white feather meat chickens was 7.2 CNY/kg, with a profit of 0.18 CNY/chick, showing a slight recovery in profitability [28][31] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale price for crucian carp and carp rose to 19.88 CNY/kg and 14.83 CNY/kg respectively as of March 5, 2026 [32] Industry News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on modernizing distant ocean fisheries, emphasizing compliance with international regulations and enhancing international cooperation [34][36] Company Insights - **Muyuansheng**: In February 2026, the company sold 4.603 million pigs, with a sales revenue of 6.405 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 23.98% [37] - **Wens Foodstuff Group**: The company reported sales of 84.7651 million meat chickens in February 2026, generating 2.336 billion CNY in revenue, with a year-on-year increase in sales of white feather chicks [39]

Group 1: Report Summary - The egg market showed a narrow - range fluctuation this week. The closing price of the 2605 contract was 3389 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 40 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week [6]. - The supply side has high inventory, slow old - hen culling, and sufficient overall supply. The demand side is in the post - holiday off - season, with weak terminal consumption and average sales after the Lantern Festival stocking, resulting in low - level oscillation of spot prices [6]. - With enterprises resuming work and production, the market sales have slightly improved. The breeding side has again fallen into losses, which may promote the acceleration of old - hen culling, leading to significant differences in market sentiment. Although the futures price has rebounded slightly in the past two days, the high - inventory pressure still exists, so it is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Top 20 Positions - The egg futures May contract fluctuated up and down, with a position of 175,763 hands, an increase of 32,739 hands compared to before the holiday. The net position of the top 20 was + 1784, and last week's net position was + 2120, with little change in net long positions [13]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipt volume was 0 [17]. Spot Price and Basis - The egg spot price was reported at 2971 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 59 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active May contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 418 yuan per ton [23]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The spread between the May and July egg futures was reported at - 107 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. Related Commodity Spot Prices - As of March 5, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.2 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.12 yuan per kilogram [33]. Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply - Side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm - As of December 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new - chick index was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. Culling Index and Culling Age - As of December 31, 2025, the national culling laying - hen index was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national culling age was 500 days [44]. Feed Raw Material Prices - As of March 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2413.73 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3060 yuan per ton [48]. Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of February 27, 2026, the egg - chicken breeding profit was reported at - 0.49 yuan per chicken, and the average price of egg - chicken compound feed was reported at 2.80 yuan per kilogram [54]. Egg - Chicken Chick and Culled - Chicken Prices - As of February 27, 2026, the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.3 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was reported at 8.86 yuan per kilogram [58]. Egg Monthly Export Volume - In December 2025, the total egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2,767.32 tons compared to the same period last year (12,131.40 tons), a year - on - year increase of 22.81%, and a month - on - month increase of 1853.21 tons compared to the previous month (13,045.52 tons) [63]. Group 4: Representative Company Xiaoming Co., Ltd. - The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd., with data sourced from wind [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: The current inventory of laying hens has declined from last year's high but has recently shown fluctuations. As of the end of February, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was approximately 1.35 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, ending four consecutive months of decline and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In general, before the second quarter of this year, the inventory is expected to decline slowly [6][20][36]. - Demand side: In February, egg sales showed a seasonal decline and were weaker year - on - year. The overall market demand is currently weak. Vegetable and pig prices are at low levels, which have a substitution effect on egg demand. After the Spring Festival, the focus is on inventory digestion, and overall demand is not optimistic [6][31][36]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly at low levels. If inventory is digested quickly, a small rebound may occur in mid - March. For futures, the near - month contracts' performance depends on the spot price rebound. The 06 contract during the rainy season is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The far - month peak - season contracts are suitable for range trading and low - buying in general [6][9][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - Spot: In January, spot prices were strong. In February, they entered a seasonal decline after the Spring Festival stocking ended. As of February 27, the average price in production areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, and in main sales areas was 3.14 yuan/jin. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly at low levels and may rebound in mid - March if inventory is digested quickly [8]. - Futures: The main contract switched to 04. Near - month contracts showed a trend of first weakening and then strengthening. The far - month contracts had a weaker rebound. Near - month contracts' performance is closely related to the spot price rebound. The 06 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and far - month peak - season contracts are for range trading and low - buying [9]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1淘汰鸡 - Price: The daily average price of Hailan Brown culling chickens in February was 4.76 yuan/jin. The price rebounded in January - February due to reduced culling willingness and Spring Festival stocking demand. After the festival, the price rebound may be limited [10][15]. - Quantity: As of February 26, the culling volume in February showed a seasonal decline, and the culling age averaged 501 days, indicating a tendency for farmers to delay culling. In March, culling willingness may remain stable if egg prices do not decline further [15][19]. 3.2.2存栏补栏 - Inventory: As of the end of February, the inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.35 billion, ending a four - month decline. Before the second quarter of this year, the inventory is expected to decline slowly [20]. - Replenishment: In February, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 43.3 million. The replenishment volume in January - February was significantly higher than that in the second half of last year. The inventory of laying hens in March is likely to continue to decline steadily [21]. - Laying rate: In late February, the laying rate was about 92.71%, following the seasonal pattern [23]. 3.2.3养殖利润 - In February, the breeding profit was in a seasonal decline. As of February 26, the average weekly profit per jin of fresh eggs was about - 0.35 yuan/jin, at a relatively low level in the past seven years. The negative profit era of egg chicken breeding is expected to continue for some time [29]. 3.3 Demand Side - Sales volume: As of February 26, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas in the previous four weeks was about 4707 tons. Sales in February showed a seasonal decline and were weaker year - on - year, indicating weak overall market demand [31]. - Inventory: As of February 26, the inventory in the fresh egg circulation link was about 1.26 days, and in the production link was about 1.36 days. After the Spring Festival, inventory needs to be digested, and it is expected to return to normal levels in early March [31]. - Substitute prices: Pig prices have fallen to a very low historical level, having an obvious drag effect. Vegetable prices are at a medium - low level compared with the same period in previous years and are unlikely to have a positive impact on egg prices [31][35]. 3.4后期展望及策略 - Supply and demand: The supply side inventory may decline slowly before the second quarter, and the demand side is not optimistic in the short term [36]. - Strategy: - For farmers and spot traders: Spot prices will stabilize in March, with a small rebound opportunity later [38]. - For futures speculators: Near - month contracts follow spot price movements. The 06 contract should be shorted on rallies, and far - month peak - season contracts are for range trading and low - buying [38]. - Important variables: Replenishment enthusiasm, egg price rebound strength in March, and feed costs [39].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction in the egg market last week was the serious mismatch between supply and demand after the Spring Festival. The high inventory of laying hens, the release of holiday - accumulated stocks, and the increase in egg - laying rate led to a significant supply pressure. Meanwhile, the sharp decline in demand from food factories, group meals, and traders' inventory digestion caused the egg price to drop rapidly, resulting in an overall "strong supply and weak demand" pattern in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion Core Contradiction - The high inventory of laying hens (over 1.3 billion), the release of holiday - accumulated stocks, and the increase in egg - laying rate after the temperature rise led to increased supply. The sharp decline in demand from food factories, group meals, and traders' inventory digestion led to a significant drop in the average daily shipment volume of eggs in the main producing areas. As a result, the egg price dropped to 2.93 yuan/jin by the third week of February, and the industry turned from profit to loss, with the profit per jin of eggs dropping from 0.45 yuan at the beginning of the month to - 0.62 yuan at the end of the month [1] Speculative Strategy Suggestion - **Market Positioning**: The weakening of egg demand after the festival, the high inventory of laying hens leading to loose supply, and the "strong supply and weak demand" situation suppressing the futures price. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100 [8] - **Unilateral Strategy**: Enter a long position with a light position when the price drops to around 3100, and take profit and exit around 3200 [8] - **Basis, Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for the basis strategy [9] Industry Customer Strategy Suggestion - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current volatility (20 - day rolling) at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) at 28.64% [11] - **Risk Management Strategy for Egg Enterprises**: For inventory management, strategies such as shorting egg futures, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options are recommended; for procurement management, strategies such as buying long - term egg contracts, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options are recommended [11] 3.2 Market Information This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: The egg farming industry turned from profit to loss in February, and the deepening of losses provided some bottom - support for the short - term price, increasing the farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The inventory of laying hens in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to decline month - on - month, and the market anticipates a stronger egg price in the second half of the year, supporting the performance of the far - month contracts. The price of day - old chicks increased slightly, indicating that farmers are optimistic about the market in the second half of the year and have a stronger willingness to replenish the flock [12] - **Negative Information**: The inventory of laying hens in February was about 1.296 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.62% and a year - on - year increase of 5.28%. The slow rate of capacity reduction maintained a high and loose supply pattern. The continuous warming of the temperature led to an increase in the egg - laying rate and the entry of reserve laying hens into production, further increasing the supply pressure [12] Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg price quotes in the sales areas [13] 3.3 Futures Market Analysis Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - This week, the main egg contract 04 opened at 3251 yuan/500KG at the beginning of the week and closed at 3267 yuan/500KG at the weekend, up 0.49%. The open interest was 134,000 contracts, a decrease of 27,312 contracts compared with before the festival [14] Basis and Spread Structure Analysis - **Spread Structure**: The egg spread generally showed a contango structure [16] - **Basis Structure**: After the end of the stocking demand, the spot price of eggs declined under pressure, and the decline was greater than that of the futures price, resulting in a narrowing of the basis [18] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the profit of egg farming has gradually turned into a loss due to the price decline, and farmers' willingness to cull old hens has increased. This week's farming profit decreased compared with last week. The feed price remained stable, the corn price fluctuated at a high level, and the farming cost remained the same month - on - month [21] 3.5 This Week's Supply and Demand Situation Supply - side Situation - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In February, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.296 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. The proportion of main - producing laying hens increased, while the proportions of reserve laying hens and hens to be slaughtered decreased. The egg - laying rate remained the same month - on - month [24] - **Chick Situation**: The chick sales volume increased slightly in February. The total sales volume of commercial chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information was about 43.3 million, with a month - on - month increase of 0.185% [26] Consumption Situation - This week, the egg sales volume in the main sales areas increased compared with last week, and the egg arrival volume at the Guangdong wholesale market increased [31] Inventory Situation - This week, the production and circulation inventories were in the inventory consumption stage, with available inventory days of 1.31 days and 1.45 days respectively [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 98 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - The previous low level of replenishment means that the current pressure of newly - opened production is not high, and the laying - hen inventory is still in a declining trend. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level. The previous high enthusiasm for market stocking led to a significant increase in egg prices and improved breeding profits, which increased the enthusiasm for chick replenishment and slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for old - hen culling, weakening the expectation of inventory decline [6]. - Affected by the recent decline in spot prices and high inventory pressure, the futures price continued to weaken this week, adding market volatility. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - The 2603 contract of eggs closed lower with a price of 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 98 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The laying - hen inventory is expected to decline, but high current inventory, improved breeding profits, increased chick - replenishment enthusiasm and slowed - down old - hen culling weaken this decline expectation. It is recommended to participate in the short - term due to price volatility [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price Trend and Top 20 Positions - The 3 - month contract of egg futures closed lower with a trading volume of 149,120 lots, a decrease of 51,367 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 changed from a net long of +2,490 to a net short of - 11,114 [13]. 3.2.2 Weekly Egg Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs was 0 [17]. 3.2.3 Egg Spot Price and Basis Trend - The egg spot price was reported at 3450 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 661 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 3 - month contract futures price and the spot average price was +546 yuan per ton [23]. 3.2.4 Egg Futures Inter - monthly Spread Change - The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 520 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a low level in the same period [27]. 3.2.5 Related Commodity Spot Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.48 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.5 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm - As of December 31, 2025, the laying - hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The new - chick index nationwide was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. 3.3.2 Culled Laying - Hen Index and Culling Age - As of December 31, 2025, the culled laying - hen index nationwide was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The culling age of hens nationwide was reported at 500 days [44]. 3.3.3 Feed Raw Material Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2368.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3100 yuan per ton [48]. 3.3.4 Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at 0.3 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. 3.3.5 Laying - Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices - As of January 30, 2026, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 3.2 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 9.44 yuan per kilogram [58]. 3.3.6 Monthly Egg Export Volume - In December 2025, China's total egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2767.32 tons compared to 12,131.40 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 22.81%. It was a month - on - month increase of 1853.21 tons compared to 13,045.52 tons in the previous month [63]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Information about the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [65].

Summary of Xiaoming Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaoming Co. - **Industry**: Egg production and poultry farming Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In December 2023, Xiaoming Co. experienced a profit reduction of over 43 million yuan due to delayed expense reversals and year-end bonus provisions, leading to a monthly loss of approximately 20 million yuan in Q4 [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be between 71 million and 92 million yuan, slightly below expectations due to inventory impairment provisions and bonus accruals [3] Industry Dynamics - The egg industry faced nearly nine months of losses in 2025, a historical first, with significant inventory pressure and no improvement even during peak seasons [2][4] - The egg price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the first half of 2026, with a potential peak price of 7.8 yuan/kg in Q3 2026 [2][10] Market Share and Sales - Xiaoming Co. achieved a market share of 26% in the egg market in 2025, with total sales of approximately 274 million eggs, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous year [2][9] - Despite price declines due to competitors, the company maintains some pricing power due to its high market share [2][9] Production and Capacity - The company plans to introduce high-yield parent stock in Q2 2027, with current production capacity at approximately 27.5 million chicks per month, aiming for 280-300 million chicks by 2026 [18] - Orders for March and April 2026 are fully booked, with stable pricing above 3.4 yuan per chick [6][13] Future Strategies - Xiaoming Co. is focusing on optimizing production and sales strategies, including entering overseas markets with a focus on countries with populations over 100 million and lower egg consumption [20][21] - The company plans to invest approximately 150 million yuan domestically and is exploring opportunities in Africa and Southeast Asia [20][25] Risks and Challenges - The ongoing avian influenza pandemic poses significant risks to the industry, affecting the supply of quality breeding stock and leading to tighter supply conditions [15][16] - The company is cautious about the current market dynamics, emphasizing the need to monitor futures investment risks due to temporary supply-demand imbalances [5][10] Growth Opportunities - Future growth in the egg market is expected to come from increased household and outdoor consumption, particularly in pre-prepared meals and central kitchen sectors [14] - The anticipated rise in egg prices in 2026 is expected to positively impact upstream prices, leading to significant growth in Xiaoming Co.'s performance [28] Conclusion - Xiaoming Co. is navigating a challenging market environment with strategic plans for growth and adaptation, focusing on both domestic and international opportunities while managing risks associated with supply chain disruptions and market fluctuations.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [70] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing a faster pace of market release, leading to a decline in pig prices. As of January 30, the price was 12.24 CNY/kg, down 0.68 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-bred and purchased piglets were 25.10 CNY/head and 124.13 CNY/head, showing a week-on-week change of -18.25 CNY and +8.29 CNY respectively [2][8][29] - In the beef sector, calf prices are rising, and import restrictions on beef are expected to support long-term price increases. As of January 30, the price for fattened bulls was 25.71 CNY/kg, up 0.19% week-on-week, while calf prices were 33.14 CNY/kg, up 0.15% week-on-week [3][31] - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in white chicken prices due to pre-Spring Festival stocking. As of January 30, the price for white feathered meat chickens was 7.74 CNY/kg, up 0.24% week-on-week [3][36] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The pace of market release is accelerating, resulting in a decline in pig prices. The average weight of pigs released is decreasing, with the industry average at 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg week-on-week. The supply from large farms is increasing, contributing to the price drop [2][19][29] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.61 million, down 290,000 from October, indicating a gradual effect of capacity reduction policies [2][29] Beef Industry - The calf market is tight, leading to price increases. The long-term outlook for beef prices is positive due to supply constraints from reduced breeding cow numbers [3][31] - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented measures to restrict imported beef, which is expected to benefit domestic beef prices [3][31] Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing price increases due to tight supply and increased demand from pre-holiday stocking. The price for chicken products is also rising, with a notable increase in profits for both chicken farming and slaughtering [3][36][39] Dairy Industry - The raw milk price is currently at a low point, with expectations for continued capacity reduction. As of January 23, the price was 3.04 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week. The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases [3][32][34] Seed Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture is enhancing market inspections and intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to improve market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified crops [3][45]