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农林牧渔行业2025年第34周周报:规模创新高,本届亚宠展有何看点-20250824
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-24 12:42
Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing significant growth, with the Asia Pet Expo showcasing over 2,600 exhibitors and 20,000 brands, indicating a thriving market driven by globalization and innovation [2][13] - China's pet food exports have shown continuous growth, with 201,000 tons exported from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.64% [14] - The pig farming sector is facing challenges, with the average pig price at 13.82 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.63% from the previous week, and the average weight of pigs reaching a historical high [15][16] - The dairy sector is poised for a recovery, with the original milk price expected to rebound as production capacity decreases after a prolonged period of losses [17][18] - The poultry sector is focusing on breeding gaps, with a significant decline in the import of breeding chickens due to avian influenza concerns, which may impact future supply [19][20] - The planting sector emphasizes food security and the importance of biotechnology, with a focus on high-yield and resilient crop varieties [25] - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from market recovery and increased market share [26] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The Asia Pet Expo has reached a record scale of 310,000 square meters, highlighting the industry's vitality and innovation potential [2][13] - Pet food exports from China have increased, with a total of 201,000 tons exported in the first seven months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.64% [14] - Recommended companies include pet food brands like Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [14] Pig Sector - The average pig price is currently at 13.82 yuan/kg, with a year-to-date low in profitability for pig farming [15][16] - The average weight of pigs is at a historical high, indicating supply pressures [15] - Recommended companies include leading pig farming firms such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods [16] Dairy Sector - Yuran Dairy reported stable performance with a revenue of 10.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [17] - The dairy industry is expected to see a recovery as production capacity decreases [18] - Recommended companies include Yuran Dairy and China Shengmu Organic Milk [18] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports, particularly for white chickens, due to avian influenza [19][20] - Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [20] Planting Sector - The focus is on food security and biotechnology, with an emphasis on high-yield and resilient crop varieties [25] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong Technology Group [25] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its increasing market share and performance [26] - The animal health sector is also recommended, particularly companies like Kexin Biological [27]
鸡蛋周报:主力期货升水明显,等待市场需求提振-20250811
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 15:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is currently characterized by high overall production capacity, with a slowdown in recent new replenishment. The supply - side pressure is gradually weakening, while the demand has improved but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new demand from tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. - The cost of feed has slightly declined, with the current feed cost around 2.5 yuan per catty and the comprehensive breeding cost around 2.8 yuan per catty. Egg prices have returned above the feed breeding cost seasonally, and profits have improved. - The spot market will still receive seasonal demand support after a short - term release of the decline sentiment, but the futures premium is obvious, and it is difficult to follow the spot rebound. As the delivery month approaches, the main 09 contract may decline to repair the basis, and attention should be paid to reverse spread opportunities. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Review - Last week, egg futures maintained a weak oscillation, and the overall weakness remained unchanged. The biggest contradiction in the market is the large basis, with obvious selling pressure and weak willingness to take delivery. [6] Spot Review - Last week, egg spot prices maintained a weak adjustment and stabilized over the weekend. The sales areas started to sell at low prices, and the market began to accept the goods. After this round of adjustment, the spot prices will be supported by the start of school for students and Mid - Autumn Festival deep - processing stocking. Attention should be paid to the rebound height. [13] Supply - Newly - added capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025, and the newly - added capacity will decline significantly. - Elimination capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but the current data indicates obvious delayed elimination. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continues to increase slightly, but it will start to decrease in September. The newly - added capacity is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists. [16] Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens is 5.51 yuan per catty (- 0.27). The elimination volume has significantly decreased. The peak season and a slight price rebound limit the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining unchanged, and the overall age has reached the normal range, but the elimination of backward production capacity is not ideal. [19] Seasonal Factors - It is the seasonal peak season. On the production area side, the inventory pressure in the production areas has increased, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate and increased costs. On the consumption side, the arrival of the tourism peak season combined with deep - processing has improved the overall demand. [21] Cost & Profit - Cost side: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices have steadily declined. The overall cost remains volatile. The current feed cost is around 2.5 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.8 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, egg prices have risen, and the spot price has returned above the feed cost. However, the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in a loss, showing a seasonal bottom - rebounding trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback on backward production capacity. [27] Capital and Market - Capital has increased at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the production capacity is high, there is seasonal suppression, and the futures premium over the spot still has room to decline. Bulls believe that the valuation is low, and the seasonality is about to turn from weak to strong, making it valuable to go long. Currently, the reality is stronger than expectations, with obvious futures premium over the spot and obvious selling pressure in the market, waiting for the cycle conversion. [30] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures are at a premium. The current basis is running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, which is more likely to be achieved through a decline in futures prices. - Spread: It shows that supply exceeds demand. The near - month contracts in the market are constantly repairing the basis through price declines, and the far - month contracts face the expectation of reduced production capacity, with a focus on reverse spread operations. [32][34]
鸡蛋市场周报:现货价格继续走低,拖累盘面再度下探-20250808
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 11:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current egg market has sufficient supply due to the high inventory of laying hens and the continuous release of cold - storage eggs. Meanwhile, the terminal demand is weak, resulting in low - priced sales by breeding enterprises to reduce inventory, and the spot price has been lower than expected, causing the industry to fall into losses again. However, with the start of school - opening stockpiling and mid - autumn procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. The futures price has declined again due to the continuous drop in spot prices and high inventory [8]. - It is recommended to participate in the market mainly through short - term trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy: Participate in the market mainly through short - term trading [7]. - Egg market review: This week, the egg futures 09 contract closed at 3362 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 122 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. In the future, high inventory and weak demand continue to pressure prices, but future demand may improve [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The egg futures 09 contract declined again, with a position of 203,664 lots, a decrease of 22,376 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 decreased from - 37,010 to - 27,832 [14]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 6 [18]. - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 2,886 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 287 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 476 yuan per ton [24]. - Futures monthly spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was - 188 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - Related product prices: As of August 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.45 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.58 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of June 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%; the new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - Elimination of laying hens: As of June 30, 2025, the national laying - hen elimination index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%; the average age of eliminated hens was 501 days [45]. - Feed raw material prices: As of August 7, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,395.49 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2,940 yuan per ton [49]. - Feed price and breeding profit: As of August 1, 2025, the breeding profit per laying hen was - 0.16 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.70 yuan per kilogram [56]. - Egg - chicken chick and eliminated - hen prices: As of August 1, 2025, the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas was 3.85 yuan per chick, and the average price of eliminated hens was 11.76 yuan per kilogram [62]. - Egg exports: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [66]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Xiaoming Co., Ltd. The report shows its price - to - earnings ratio change, but specific data is not provided [68].
2025年第30周周报:“反内卷”下的生猪板块观点-20250727
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-27 07:16
Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [13] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing production in the pig sector, highlighting the expectation gap in the industry [1][2] - The dairy sector is experiencing a bottoming out of raw milk prices, with a potential new cycle for beef cattle starting [3][19] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports [4][21] - The poultry sector is focusing on the shortage of breeding stock and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][23] - The planting sector is prioritizing food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding [8][29] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, particularly Haida Group [10][31] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of July 26, the average price of pigs is 14.81 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous week, with a notable high average weight of 128.48 kg for market pigs [1][17] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes strict capacity control measures to reduce the number of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs being sold [1][18] - The sector is currently undervalued, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing low average market values [2][18] Cattle Sector - As of the third week of July, live cattle prices are 26.53 CNY/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week, while raw milk prices remain at 3.04 CNY/kg [3][19] - The dairy industry has faced significant losses, with an estimated cumulative income loss of 70 billion CNY from 2023 to 2025 [3][20] - Companies that can withstand the current downturn and have mother cow resources are expected to have strong profit potential [3][20] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with significant sales figures reported [4][21] - Pet food exports have increased, with 167,900 tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [4][21] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on high-growth domestic companies [4][22] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding stock imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, leading to a 33.46% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates [5][23] - As of July 26, the price of broiler chicks has increased to 2.6 CNY/chick, driven by reduced supply and increased stocking enthusiasm [5][24] - Investment suggestions include focusing on self-breeding opportunities and companies with alternative breeding resources [5][26] Planting Sector - The report stresses the need for a focus on increasing grain production through improved yield and the integration of various agricultural practices [8][29] - The importance of financial support for seed industry revitalization is highlighted, with a push for the commercialization of genetically modified crops [8][29] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [8][30] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with expectations of market recovery following a prolonged downturn [10][31] - The report notes significant price fluctuations in raw materials, which could benefit companies with strong hedging and feed formulation capabilities [10][31]
鸡蛋市场周报:现货维持低位运行,拖累盘面再度下探-20250711
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 09:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is in a seasonal off - season for demand, with high egg - laying hen存栏量, significant pressure from newly - opened laying hens, and sufficient egg supply. High - temperature and high - humidity weather increases storage costs, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream dealers. Egg prices are at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end is in a loss state. However, as prices reach a relatively low level, the process of culling old hens has accelerated, reducing the存栏预期. Near - month futures prices are generally weak, while far - month contracts are more resistant to decline. The recommended strategy is to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy: Lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7] - Market review: This week, eggs fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 08 contract was 3442 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 140 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week [8] - Market outlook: The egg market is in a seasonal off - season, with sufficient supply, high storage costs, and cautious purchasing by dealers. Egg prices are low, and the breeding end is in a loss. But the culling of old hens has accelerated, and far - month contracts are more resistant to decline [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The 08 contract of egg futures fluctuated and closed down, with a position of 111,067 lots, a decrease of 69,589 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 28,851, compared with - 31,955 last week, and the net short position increased significantly [14] - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 24 [18] - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was reported at 2596 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 78 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 08 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 846 yuan/ton [24] - Futures inter - month spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at - 32 yuan/500 kilograms, generally at a low level compared to the same period [28] - Related product spot prices: As of July 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.73 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.42 yuan/kg [34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of May 31, 2025, the national laying hen存栏指数 was 110.89, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the national new chick index was 106.78, a month - on - month decrease of 23.00% [41] - Culling situation: As of May 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 108.68, a month - on - month increase of 12.32%; the national culling age of hens was 506 days [46] - Feed raw material prices: As of July 10, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2426.86 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 2840 yuan/ton [50] - Feed price and breeding profit: As of July 4, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.58 yuan/hen, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.72 yuan/kg [57] - Laying hen chick and culled hen prices: As of July 4, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.9 yuan/bird, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 9.4 yuan/kg [59] - Egg monthly export volume: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared with the previous month [65]
“周期不休,成长不止:农林牧渔25年中报业绩前瞻
2025-07-07 00:51
Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Agricultural Industry Performance**: The agricultural industry in the first half of 2025 is relatively stable, with grain prices at a low point and pig prices showing a year-on-year recovery, although they are declining on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Poultry prices are affected by weak demand in the catering sector and abundant supply, leading to a continued downturn in the poultry farming sector [2][3]. Key Points on Specific Sectors 1. Pig Farming Industry - **Price and Profitability**: The average pig price is approximately 14.8 yuan per kilogram, down 4.2% year-on-year. However, due to a greater decline in farming costs compared to pig prices, industry profitability has significantly improved, with average profit per head around 70 yuan, compared to a loss of 25 yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - **Company Performance**: Major companies like Muyuan Foods are expected to report over 10.5 billion yuan in profits for the first half of the year, with a 90% increase in Q2 profits. Other companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs are also showing strong profitability despite challenges in certain segments [4]. 2. Poultry Farming Industry - **Current Situation**: The white feather broiler market remains at a low point, with upstream companies benefiting from downstream capacity expansion. However, the price drop in upstream is greater than in downstream. The average selling price of layer chicks has increased by 40% year-on-year to about 4.3 yuan per chick due to supply constraints [5]. - **Financial Performance**: Companies like Shengnong Development expect a 22% year-on-year growth in Q2 performance, while Wens and Lihua are facing losses in the yellow feather chicken segment, averaging losses of 0.2 to 0.3 yuan per bird [5]. 3. Pet Food Market - **Market Dynamics**: The domestic pet food market remains robust, with online GMV growth of 17% in the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% last year. However, companies focused on export OEM are facing declines due to US-China trade tensions, while strong domestic brands are expected to maintain high growth rates [6][9]. - **Company Performance**: Companies like Guibao and Zhongchong are projected to see significant growth, with expected Q2 growth rates of around 40% and 31%, respectively. In contrast, companies heavily reliant on export OEM may see stagnant or slightly declining performance [10]. 4. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Industries - **Sales Growth**: The feed and animal health sectors are benefiting from a recovery in livestock numbers and stable profitability. For instance, Bangji Technology reported over 200% year-on-year growth in feed sales, while Haida Group expects a growth rate of 25% to 30% [7]. - **Vaccine Demand**: There has been a recovery in vaccine demand, with prices for certain products like Tylosin and Tiamulin increasing by 30% and 10%, respectively. Companies like Keqian Bio are expected to see a 20% to 25% growth in Q2 performance [8]. Recommendations for Investment - **Investment Focus**: Recommendations include focusing on post-cycle breeding varieties, feed, and animal health sectors. Key companies to watch include Bangji Technology, Haida Group, and leading vaccine producers like Keqian Bio and Huisheng Bio. Attention should also be given to low-valuation leading breeding companies with strong performance [11]. - **Market Outlook**: If the pig farming sector can stabilize and avoid overproduction, there is significant potential for valuation increases in the industry, particularly for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [11].
农林牧渔行业2025年中报前瞻:养殖盈利兑现,“后周期”景气上行,宠物食品龙头延续较快增长
Investment Rating - The report rates the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry as "Overweight" due to expected overall profit improvement in the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of pig farming is expected to improve, with a stable pig price and a significant increase in average profit per head for self-bred pigs [4]. - Poultry farming shows a mixed outlook, with white chicken prices bottoming out and yellow chicken profitability declining, while egg-laying chicks continue to experience high demand [4]. - The pet food sector is projected to maintain high growth, with leading companies showing strong online sales growth, despite a decline in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs [4]. - Animal health is recovering, with increased demand for vaccines and improved sales of veterinary preparations [4]. - The seed industry faces challenges with declining corn prices and increased competition, leading to pressure on the performance of leading seed companies [4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs in H1 2025 is expected to be 14.80 CNY/kg, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, while the average profit for self-bred pigs is projected at 69.04 CNY/head, recovering from a loss of 24.82 CNY/head in H1 2024 [4]. Poultry Farming - White chicken prices are under pressure due to oversupply, with the average price for commodity broiler chicks at 2.4 CNY/bird, down 21% year-on-year. Yellow chicken prices are also declining, with the average price for Qingjiao chicken at 8.9 CNY/kg, down 19% year-on-year [4]. Pet Food - The domestic pet food market is experiencing a growth rate of 17% in online GMV for the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% in the same period of 2024. Leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. show growth rates of 51% and 26%, respectively [4]. Animal Health - The demand for veterinary vaccines has increased, with a 15.8% year-on-year rise in vaccine approvals in the first five months of 2025. Prices for veterinary preparations like Tylosin and Tiamulin have increased by 39.8% and 9.3%, respectively [4]. Seed Industry - The corn seed market is under pressure due to falling corn prices and high competition, leading to a decline in seed prices and performance expectations for leading seed companies [4].
鸡蛋市场周报:现货持续偏低运行,期价维持低位震荡-20250530
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 10:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term strategy is to wait and see [7] - This week, the egg price fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the 09 contract was 3,757 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 5 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The firm corn spot price supports the egg cost, and there is restocking demand at low prices. The pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking also provides some support. However, the current egg - laying hen inventory is high, the pressure of newly - opened production of previously replenished hens is large, and the egg supply is sufficient. Affected by hot and humid weather, the egg storage cost increases, and downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing. If the spot price remains low, it may increase the enthusiasm for culling old hens and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the long - term price. The low spot price drags down the futures price [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: Short - term wait - and - see [7] - Egg market: This week, the 09 contract of eggs fluctuated at a low level. The corn price supports the cost, and there is restocking demand and pre - festival stocking support. But the hen inventory is high, the supply is sufficient, the storage cost is high, and the downstream is cautious. Low spot prices may affect the hen inventory, and the low spot price drags down the futures price [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The 09 contract of egg futures fluctuated at a low level, with a position of 100,108 lots, an increase of 12,014 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 3,548, a slight decrease in net short position [14] - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 0 [18] - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 2,916 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 32 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 07 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 22 yuan per ton [24] - Futures monthly spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was 222 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a medium level in the same period [28] - Related product prices: As of May 29, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.69 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.3 yuan per kilogram [34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of March 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new chick index was 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [39] - Hen culling: As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age was 510 days [45] - Feed raw materials: As of May 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,379.8 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2,920 yuan per ton [49] - Feed price and profit: As of May 23, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.27 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.78 yuan per kilogram [56] - Egg - laying hen chicks and culled hens: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 4.15 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 10.24 yuan per kilogram [60] - Egg exports: In April 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,792.51 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons [65] 3.4 Representative Company - Xiaoming Co., Ltd.: Only the PE change chart is provided, no specific data [67]
鸡蛋市场周报:现货再度转跌,期价维持低位震荡-20250523
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 09:35
Group 1: Report Summary and Strategy Suggestion - Strategy suggestion: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [7] - Market review: This week, the egg price fluctuated slightly downward. The closing price of the 09 contract was 3762 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 26 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [8] - Market outlook: The firm spot price of corn supports the egg cost. The egg price is at a low level this year, and there is restocking demand at low prices. Pre - holiday stocking before the Dragon Boat Festival may provide some support. However, the current egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the pressure of newly - laid eggs from previously replenished hens is large. The supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change. If the spot price remains low, it may boost the enthusiasm for culling old hens and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the forward price. Pay attention to the impact of the spot price on the egg - laying hen inventory. The spot price has been low, dragging the futures price to oscillate weakly at a low level [8] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - The 09 contract of egg futures fluctuated slightly downward, with a position of 88094 lots, an increase of 7908 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 4069, and the net short position decreased slightly compared to last week's - 6681 [14] Futures Warehouse Receipt - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs was 3 [18] Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of eggs was reported at 2948 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 283 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 07 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 18 yuan per ton [24] Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at 191 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a medium level in the same period [28] Related Commodity Spot Prices - As of May 22, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 20.67 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was reported at 4.2 yuan per kilogram [34] Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply Side: Inventory and Replenishment - As of March 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new chick index was reported at 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [39] Culling Index and Age - As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was reported at 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 510 days [45] Feed Raw Material Prices - As of May 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2374.51 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 2940 yuan per ton [49] Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of May 16, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.16 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan per kilogram [55] Egg Chicken and Culled Chicken Prices - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 4.15 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens was reported at 10.44 yuan per kilogram [60] Egg Export Volume - In April 2025, the total egg export volume was 12792.51 tons, an increase of 1680.12 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 15.12%, and a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons compared to the previous month [65] Group 4: Representative Company Xiaoming Co., Ltd. - The report shows the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd. [67]
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250522
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 13:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, there are signs of stability in the near term. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 2.98 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas is 3.17 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous trading day. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country remained stable today [3][6]. - In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in April was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 is 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - In the week of May 16, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 18.56 million, an increase of 7.5% from the previous week. As of the week of May 15, the average culling age of culled hens was 534 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7]. - As of the week of May 15, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 8,716 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1 day, a decrease of 0.33 days from the previous week [8]. - As of May 16, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.12 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week. On May 9, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 20.15 yuan per bird, an increase of 0.8 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - Today, the price of culled hens across the country decreased, and the average price in the main production areas was 4.99 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.04 yuan per catty from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2 Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, there are signs of stability in the near term. It is recommended to close out previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [11]. - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [12]. - Options: Wait and see [13].