南华期货鸡蛋产业周报 ——节后消费减弱，蛋鸡存栏去化缓慢 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年3月2日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周鸡蛋市场的核心矛盾在于节后供需节奏的严重错配。从上游养殖端来看，在产蛋鸡存栏量仍处于13亿只 以上的历史高位，叠加春节假期积压的库存集中释放以及气温回暖后产蛋率回升，导致市场供应压力持续加 大；从下游需求端来看，食品厂采购锐减、团膳订单减少、贸易商以消化库存为主，导致主产区鸡蛋日均发 货量下降，需求呈现断崖式下跌。供需两端双重挤压下，鸡蛋价格加速下行，截至2月第3周全国均价跌至 2.93元/斤，行业由盈转亏，单斤鸡蛋盈利由月初的0.45元降至下旬的-0.62元。整体来看，上周鸡蛋市场呈现 典型的"供强需弱"格局，短期内供需失衡压力仍将持续。 蛋鸡存栏与蛋价 source： 南华研究 元/斤 亿只 蛋鸡：存栏数：中国（月）(右轴) 鸡蛋：主产区：均价：中国（日） 15/12 17/12 19/12 21/12 23/12 25/12 11 12 13 2 3 4 5 6 鸡蛋：发货量（周）季节 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 98 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - The previous low level of replenishment means that the current pressure of newly - opened production is not high, and the laying - hen inventory is still in a declining trend. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level. The previous high enthusiasm for market stocking led to a significant increase in egg prices and improved breeding profits, which increased the enthusiasm for chick replenishment and slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for old - hen culling, weakening the expectation of inventory decline [6]. - Affected by the recent decline in spot prices and high inventory pressure, the futures price continued to weaken this week, adding market volatility. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - The 2603 contract of eggs closed lower with a price of 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 98 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The laying - hen inventory is expected to decline, but high current inventory, improved breeding profits, increased chick - replenishment enthusiasm and slowed - down old - hen culling weaken this decline expectation. It is recommended to participate in the short - term due to price volatility [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price Trend and Top 20 Positions - The 3 - month contract of egg futures closed lower with a trading volume of 149,120 lots, a decrease of 51,367 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 changed from a net long of +2,490 to a net short of - 11,114 [13]. 3.2.2 Weekly Egg Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs was 0 [17]. 3.2.3 Egg Spot Price and Basis Trend - The egg spot price was reported at 3450 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 661 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 3 - month contract futures price and the spot average price was +546 yuan per ton [23]. 3.2.4 Egg Futures Inter - monthly Spread Change - The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 520 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a low level in the same period [27]. 3.2.5 Related Commodity Spot Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.48 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.5 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm - As of December 31, 2025, the laying - hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The new - chick index nationwide was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. 3.3.2 Culled Laying - Hen Index and Culling Age - As of December 31, 2025, the culled laying - hen index nationwide was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The culling age of hens nationwide was reported at 500 days [44]. 3.3.3 Feed Raw Material Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2368.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3100 yuan per ton [48]. 3.3.4 Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at 0.3 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. 3.3.5 Laying - Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices - As of January 30, 2026, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 3.2 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 9.44 yuan per kilogram [58]. 3.3.6 Monthly Egg Export Volume - In December 2025, China's total egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2767.32 tons compared to 12,131.40 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 22.81%. It was a month - on - month increase of 1853.21 tons compared to 13,045.52 tons in the previous month [63]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Information about the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [65].

Summary of Xiaoming Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaoming Co. - **Industry**: Egg production and poultry farming Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In December 2023, Xiaoming Co. experienced a profit reduction of over 43 million yuan due to delayed expense reversals and year-end bonus provisions, leading to a monthly loss of approximately 20 million yuan in Q4 [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be between 71 million and 92 million yuan, slightly below expectations due to inventory impairment provisions and bonus accruals [3] Industry Dynamics - The egg industry faced nearly nine months of losses in 2025, a historical first, with significant inventory pressure and no improvement even during peak seasons [2][4] - The egg price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the first half of 2026, with a potential peak price of 7.8 yuan/kg in Q3 2026 [2][10] Market Share and Sales - Xiaoming Co. achieved a market share of 26% in the egg market in 2025, with total sales of approximately 274 million eggs, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous year [2][9] - Despite price declines due to competitors, the company maintains some pricing power due to its high market share [2][9] Production and Capacity - The company plans to introduce high-yield parent stock in Q2 2027, with current production capacity at approximately 27.5 million chicks per month, aiming for 280-300 million chicks by 2026 [18] - Orders for March and April 2026 are fully booked, with stable pricing above 3.4 yuan per chick [6][13] Future Strategies - Xiaoming Co. is focusing on optimizing production and sales strategies, including entering overseas markets with a focus on countries with populations over 100 million and lower egg consumption [20][21] - The company plans to invest approximately 150 million yuan domestically and is exploring opportunities in Africa and Southeast Asia [20][25] Risks and Challenges - The ongoing avian influenza pandemic poses significant risks to the industry, affecting the supply of quality breeding stock and leading to tighter supply conditions [15][16] - The company is cautious about the current market dynamics, emphasizing the need to monitor futures investment risks due to temporary supply-demand imbalances [5][10] Growth Opportunities - Future growth in the egg market is expected to come from increased household and outdoor consumption, particularly in pre-prepared meals and central kitchen sectors [14] - The anticipated rise in egg prices in 2026 is expected to positively impact upstream prices, leading to significant growth in Xiaoming Co.'s performance [28] Conclusion - Xiaoming Co. is navigating a challenging market environment with strategic plans for growth and adaptation, focusing on both domestic and international opportunities while managing risks associated with supply chain disruptions and market fluctuations.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [70] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing a faster pace of market release, leading to a decline in pig prices. As of January 30, the price was 12.24 CNY/kg, down 0.68 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-bred and purchased piglets were 25.10 CNY/head and 124.13 CNY/head, showing a week-on-week change of -18.25 CNY and +8.29 CNY respectively [2][8][29] - In the beef sector, calf prices are rising, and import restrictions on beef are expected to support long-term price increases. As of January 30, the price for fattened bulls was 25.71 CNY/kg, up 0.19% week-on-week, while calf prices were 33.14 CNY/kg, up 0.15% week-on-week [3][31] - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in white chicken prices due to pre-Spring Festival stocking. As of January 30, the price for white feathered meat chickens was 7.74 CNY/kg, up 0.24% week-on-week [3][36] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The pace of market release is accelerating, resulting in a decline in pig prices. The average weight of pigs released is decreasing, with the industry average at 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg week-on-week. The supply from large farms is increasing, contributing to the price drop [2][19][29] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.61 million, down 290,000 from October, indicating a gradual effect of capacity reduction policies [2][29] Beef Industry - The calf market is tight, leading to price increases. The long-term outlook for beef prices is positive due to supply constraints from reduced breeding cow numbers [3][31] - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented measures to restrict imported beef, which is expected to benefit domestic beef prices [3][31] Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing price increases due to tight supply and increased demand from pre-holiday stocking. The price for chicken products is also rising, with a notable increase in profits for both chicken farming and slaughtering [3][36][39] Dairy Industry - The raw milk price is currently at a low point, with expectations for continued capacity reduction. As of January 23, the price was 3.04 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week. The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases [3][32][34] Seed Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture is enhancing market inspections and intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to improve market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified crops [3][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In January, the egg market was boosted by the Spring Festival stocking effect, with egg prices rising significantly and a strong divergence between the spot and futures markets. In the short - term, the market was in a state of short - term supply - demand tightness, and the low inventory at each stage supported the spot price. The futures market showed a large discount due to the pessimistic expectation of a sharp decline in post - festival demand. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner. The far - month contracts have the potential for valuation repair [7][8][72] - The recommended operation strategies are to remain on the sidelines for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options trading [8][73] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Price - In January, the main contract of egg futures switched to JD2603, showing an oscillating trend. The highest price in the month was 3,101 yuan/500 kg, and the lowest was 2,970 yuan/500 kg. As of last Friday, the contract was reported at 3,002 yuan/500 kg, down 1.51% [5][13] 3.1.2 Spot Price - In January, egg prices rose significantly under the boost of the Spring Festival holiday. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.51 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 yuan/jin (16.23%); the average price in the main selling areas was 3.52 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.45 yuan/jin (14.66%) [7][18] 3.1.3 Basis - As of January 30, the egg basis was 998 yuan/500 kg, at a recent high. The strong performance of the spot market diverged from the futures market [22] 3.1.4 Chicken Chick Price - Driven by the increase in egg prices, the enthusiasm for replenishment in the breeding sector increased significantly in January. The average price of commercial - generation egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.83 yuan per chick, a month - on - month increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.12% [7][26] 3.1.5 Old Hen Price - In January, the price of old hens oscillated upward, and the breeding sector was reluctant to sell and hold back inventory. The average price of old hens was 4.41 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.33 yuan/jin (8.09%) [7][31] 3.1.6 Laying Hen Inventory - In January, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The inventory of laying hens was still at a high level in the past five - year average, and the supply pressure was not significantly alleviated [35] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The inventory of laying hens in January was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. The new production capacity in January corresponded to the chicks replenished in September last year, and the farmers were cautious in replenishing [35] - **Chicken Chick Sales**: In January, the total sales of chicken chicks were 39.18 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% [42] - **Old Hen Slaughter**: Affected by the pressure to hold back inventory, the slaughter volume of old hens in January decreased month - on - month. The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points was 2.9007 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, one day earlier than in December [48] - **Old Hen Slaughter by Enterprises**: Driven by the pre - Spring Festival consumption peak, the overall slaughter volume of the industry increased significantly in January. The total slaughter volume of old hens in sample slaughter enterprises was 10.0792 million, a month - on - month increase of 12.54% [52] 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Vehicle Arrivals in Sales Areas**: Affected by Spring Festival stocking, the downstream market stocked up actively. In January, the number of vehicle arrivals in the Beijing market was 360, a decrease of 40 vehicles (10%) compared with December; the number of vehicle arrivals in the Guangdong market was 2,670, an increase of 23 vehicles (0.87%) compared with the previous month [56] - **Egg Sales in Sales Areas**: In January, the total egg sales in the sales areas were 32.19 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 thousand tons (9.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 60.55% [62] 3.2.3 Egg - Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - In January, the breeding cost of egg - laying hens increased slightly, and the loss margin narrowed significantly. The average breeding cost of egg - laying hens was 133.59 yuan per hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan/jin (0.85%), and the breeding profit was - 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.46 yuan/jin [66] 3.2.4 Inventory Situation - In January, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased month - on - month. As of January 30, the production - link inventory was 0.58 days, a decrease of 0.44 days compared with December; the circulation - link inventory was 0.79 days, a decrease of 0.58 days compared with December [71] 3.3 Market Outlook and Operation Strategies 3.3.1 Market Outlook - Since January, the concentrated release of Spring Festival stocking demand, combined with the concentrated release of cold - storage eggs in December and the month - on - month decline in egg - laying hen production capacity, has led to a short - term supply - demand tightness in the market, and the inventory pressure at each stage has been alleviated. Near the end of the month, the improvement in breeding profits has led to a slowdown in the culling of old hens, and the terminal stocking is coming to an end. However, the low inventory at each stage still supports the spot egg price. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern of the egg market in the second quarter is expected to improve marginally, and egg prices are likely to rise in an oscillating manner [8][72] 3.3.2 Operation Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Remain on the sidelines - **Arbitrage**: Remain on the sidelines - **Options Trading**: Remain on the sidelines [8][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflection point of the laying hen inventory has emerged. As of the end of December 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.344 billion, with a month - on - month decline of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. It is expected that the laying hen inventory will decline gradually [5][19][38]. - In January 2026, egg sales continued to be weak year - on - year but showed a slight month - on - month recovery. After the Spring Festival, the overall demand will remain weak [5][30][38]. - For the spot market, the peak of egg prices is expected to appear soon, and attention should be paid to the support level around 3 yuan after the Spring Festival. For the futures market, the seesaw effect between near - month and far - month contracts will continue. Before the Spring Festival, the market will fluctuate within a range. The opening price of the spot market after the Spring Festival will greatly affect the subsequent market trend [5][8][38]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Price - **Spot Market**: In January, egg prices rose more than expected. As of January 30, the average price in the producing areas was 4.04 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas, it was 4.31 yuan/jin. The peak of egg prices is expected to appear soon, and the inventory needs to be digested after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the support level around 3 yuan [7]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract switched to 03. The near - month contracts were relatively strong, and the far - month contracts starting from 05 were significantly weak. Before the Spring Festival, the market will fluctuate within a range. A double - buy strategy for egg options can be considered before the Spring Festival to gain potential benefits from increased volatility. There is no obvious trend for single - side futures trading [8]. Supply Side 2.1 Elimination of Hens - In January, the average daily price of Hy - Line Brown eliminated hens was 4.46 yuan/jin, showing a recovery compared to December. The elimination volume decreased gradually in January, and the elimination age was postponed. After the Spring Festival, the elimination price may be in the off - season, and the rebound is limited [9][14][17]. 2.2 Inventory and Replenishment - The inventory of laying hens has reached an inflection point and is expected to decline gradually. The replenishment enthusiasm has weakened since the second half of 2025, and the monthly egg - laying chick output in December 2025 was relatively low compared to the same period in 2024. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens in February will continue to decline steadily [19][21]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - In January, the breeding profit recovered significantly. After eliminating seasonal factors, the current profit is still slightly low. It is expected that the era of negative profit in egg - laying hen breeding will continue for some time, and future profits will mainly operate at a low level [27][28]. Demand Side - In January, egg sales continued to be weak year - on - year but showed a slight month - on - month recovery. After the Spring Festival, the overall demand will remain weak. The current inventory has been significantly reduced. The prices of pigs and vegetables are relatively low, which has a certain substitution effect on egg demand [30]. - The pig price will remain at a relatively low level for some time. The vegetable price is at a medium - low level compared to the same period in previous years and is expected to have no positive impact on egg prices [31][33]. Later Outlook and Strategy - **Supply and Demand**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to decline gradually, and the overall demand after the Spring Festival will be weak [38]. - **Viewpoint**: The spot price peak is expected to appear soon, and attention should be paid to the support level around 3 yuan after the Spring Festival. The seesaw effect between near - month and far - month futures contracts will continue. The opening price of the spot market after the Spring Festival will greatly affect the subsequent market trend [38][39]. - **Strategy**: For farmers and spot traders, pay attention to the support level of 3 yuan in February. For futures speculators, conduct interval rolling operations before the Spring Festival [39]. Important Variables - The persistence of elimination, the performance of egg prices after the Spring Festival, and feed costs [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][41]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.07% from January 16 to January 29, 2026, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.12 percentage points [3][10]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in planting (9.25%), animal health (4.71%), agricultural product processing (4.12%), and fishery (1.82%), while feed and breeding sectors saw declines of 0.02% and 2.84%, respectively [3][13][14]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry was approximately 2.66 times as of January 29, 2026, indicating that the industry is at a relatively low valuation level compared to historical averages, positioned at about 59.9% of the valuation center since 2006 [3][18]. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three yuan pigs fluctuated from 12.76 CNY/kg to 13.24 CNY/kg before dropping to 12.52 CNY/kg during the reporting period [3][22]. - The breeding sow inventory reached 39.61 million heads by the end of December 2025, a decrease of 0.73% from the previous month, remaining within the normal range of 39 million heads [3][22]. - The profit from self-bred pigs was 25.1 CNY/head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 124.13 CNY/head, both maintaining positive profitability [3][26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks was 2.31 CNY/chick, showing a slight decrease, while the average price for layer chicks was 3.2 CNY/chick, which saw a minor increase [3][28]. - The average price for white feather broilers was 7.74 CNY/kg, with a profit of 0.39 CNY/chick, indicating a recovery in profitability [3][32]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp and carp was stable, with prices at 19.4 CNY/kg and 13.88 CNY/kg, respectively, showing slight increases [3][33]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss stabilizing beef production and alleviating dairy industry challenges, emphasizing the need for effective policies to support these sectors [3][35]. - A meeting was also held to coordinate efforts in the seed industry revitalization action, focusing on enhancing domestic seed security and promoting technological independence [3][38]. Company Highlights - Key companies to watch include: - Muyuan Foods (牧原股份, 002714): A leading player in pig farming with cost and scale advantages [3][42]. - Haida Group (海大集团, 002311): A leading feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth [3][42]. - Shengnong Development (圣农发展, 002299): A leader in the white feather broiler industry with advantages in seed sources [3][42]. - Reap Bio (瑞普生物, 300119): A leader in the animal health sector with a growing product matrix for pet health [3][42]. - Longping High-Tech (隆平高科, 000998): A leading seed company with advanced transgenic reserves [3][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price increase is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices. Given that the March contract is for the post - Chinese New Year period when egg demand is low and prices are weak, the upward space for the 03 contract is relatively limited. However, the egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely decline in the next few months [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Information - **Price Information**: The average price in the main production areas today is 3.69 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.95 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices mostly continued to rise today, and the national average price of culled chickens also increased to 4.47 yuan/jin [2][4][7]. - **Inventory and Production Capacity**: In December, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a 5% year - on - year increase, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying - hen chicks in December was about 39.59 million (accounting for about 50% of the country), with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. As of January 16, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas decreased by 2.6% week - on - week to 7391 tons, at a historical low [4][5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of January 15, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, up 0.26 yuan from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links both slightly decreased [6]. Trading Logic - The strong performance of spot prices provides some support for the futures market. Considering that the 03 contract is for the post - Chinese New Year period when egg demand is weak, its upward space is limited. The overall egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and future production capacity is expected to decline [8]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 contracts on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: As Spring Festival Stockpiling Approaches, Egg Prices Rise [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market has seen price increases driven by Spring Festival stockpiling demand, with improved market sentiment and increased shipments in the production areas. However, the downstream demand for chicken products remains weak, and the overall procurement enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises is limited. The egg production capacity is expected to decline in the future, and the egg price increase is mainly supported by the rise in spot prices. [5][10][18] Summary by Directory Part 1: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan per catty, up 0.3 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.4 yuan per catty, also up 0.3 yuan per catty from last Friday. The egg market rose driven by Spring Festival stockpiling. The inventory in each link decreased significantly, and the egg price increased significantly. The downstream demand was weak, and the procurement enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises was limited. [5] 2. Supply Analysis - The national egg production area shipments increased significantly this week, mainly due to the concentrated release of pre - Spring Festival stockpiling demand and the active inventory increase in the terminal market. On January 8th, the national main production area egg - laying hen culling volume was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 485 days, 1 day more than the previous week. In December, the national laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, 80 million less than the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, lower than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of January 15th, the corn price was around 2363 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3184 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2609 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan per catty of eggs. The feed price rose slightly this week, and the cost per catty of eggs remained stable. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.13 yuan per catty, up 0.26 yuan from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 14.14 yuan per feather, down 0.41 yuan per catty from the previous week. [13] 4. Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, the Spring Festival stockpiling demand was released, and the sales volume in the sales areas increased. In the middle and late weeks, the sales growth slowed down. As of January 8th, the egg sales volume in national representative sales areas was 7391 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week, at a historical low. The egg production and circulation inventories decreased significantly and were at a low level. As of January 15th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, and in the circulation link was 1.05 days, both slightly decreasing. The vegetable price index and pork price slightly rebounded. [16] 5. Trading Strategies - Option: It is recommended to wait and see. For trading logic, considering the approaching Spring Festival, the spot price has risen significantly, which supports the futures market. The egg production capacity is decreasing, and it is expected to continue to decline in the future. It is recommended to build long positions in the far - month May contract on dips, and wait and see for arbitrage. [17][18] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Egg - Laying Hen Farming Situation - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Spread and Basis - Graphs show the 1 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - month basis, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - month basis, and 9 - 1 spread from 2018 - 2025, but specific data analysis is not provided. [25][26][29]

Report Overview - Report Title: Egg Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Xu Fangli [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is in a state of game between weak reality and strong expectations. The near - term contracts may be in a wide - range low - level oscillation in the short term, while the far - term contracts are expected to perform better due to the expected decline in production capacity. It is recommended to lightly test long positions in far - term contracts [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: This week, the egg price fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 3072 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 32 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6] - **Market Outlook**: The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the elimination of old chickens. The egg - laying hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the market sentiment has slightly improved. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the recent continuous rise in egg prices has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for eliminating old chickens. High production capacity still restricts the performance of near - month market prices [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures March contract oscillated and rebounded. The holding volume was 263,198 lots, an increase of 12,344 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 changed from net short to net long, with a net position of + 1787 (last week was - 18,655) [13] - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16] - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3644 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 342 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at + 572 yuan per ton [22] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 511 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was generally at a low level in the same period [26] - **Related Product Spot Price**: As of January 15, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.5 yuan per kilogram [32] 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - side Inventory and Replenishment**: As of November 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 112.03, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%. The national new - chick index was reported at 93.62, a month - on - month increase of 39.54% [38] - **Laying - hen Elimination**: As of November 30, 2025, the national elimination - laying - hen index was reported at 101.18, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%. The national elimination - chicken age was reported at 500 days [43] - **Feed Raw Material Price**: As of January 15, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2363.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3160 yuan per ton [47] - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of January 9, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.29 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan per kilogram [54] - **Egg - laying Hen Chick and Elimination - chicken Price**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.9 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination chickens in the main production areas was reported at 8.16 yuan per kilogram [58] - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In November 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,045.52 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.13% (compared to 11,953.66 tons in the same period last year) and a month - on - month decrease of 349.02 tons (compared to 13,394.53 tons in the previous month) [62] 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: The report shows the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [64]