Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg market fluctuated and closed lower. The 2601 contract closed at 3,235 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 56 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Under the pressure of high production capacity, the futures price weakened again recently and may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The egg market fluctuated and closed lower this week. The 2601 contract closed at 3,235 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 56 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens being culled. The laying - hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market sentiment has improved slightly. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and there has been no excessive culling of old hens. High production capacity remains the main concern of the market. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Recently, under the restraint of high - production - capacity pressure, the futures price has weakened again and may be in a wide - range shock state in the short term [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures contract 1 fluctuated and declined. The position volume was 208,963 lots, an increase of 28,593 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 17,934, compared with - 7,153 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,039 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 38 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active egg contract 1 futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 196 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The egg 1 - 5 spread was reported at - 242 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of November 13, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.89 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was reported at 5.77 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the laying - hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The new - chick index nationwide was reported at 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [39]. - **Culling Indicators**: As of September 30, 2025, the culled laying - hen index nationwide was reported at 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The average age of culled chickens nationwide was reported at 507 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of November 13, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,259.8 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,020 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of November 7, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.47 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Chickens**: As of November 7, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.8 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was reported at 8.06 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In September 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1,631.15 tons compared with 11,584.64 tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared with 13,121.03 tons in the previous month [62]. 4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: A figure on the change in price - earnings ratio is provided, but no specific analysis content is available [64].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, and the demand is generally weak. In the short - term without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the recent increase in the amount of culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - For futures contracts, JD01 closed at 3347, up 29 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3497, up 31; JD09 closed at 3861, up 12. In terms of spreads, 01 - 05 was - 150, down 2; 05 - 09 was - 364, up 19; 09 - 01 was 514, down 17. Regarding the ratios, 01 egg/corn was 1.56, up 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal was 1.11, up 0.01, etc. [2] 2. Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin. The prices in different regions showed various trends, with most of the national mainstream prices remaining stable, some falling, and some rising slightly. The average price of culled chickens was 4 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged [2][4] 3. Fundamental Information - The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased, and in the main sales areas also decreased. The national mainstream prices were mostly stable, with some fluctuations in different regions. In October, the national laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a slight decrease from the previous month but a 5.5% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease. The number of culled chickens in the main production areas in the week of October 31 was 20.53 million, an 11% increase from the previous week, and the average culling age was 494 days, a 5 - day decrease. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 2.1%. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.2 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin. The production and circulation inventories remained unchanged [4][5][6] 4. Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens is high, and the demand is weak. Without significant improvement in the short - term, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the increase in culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7] 5. Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. For arbitrage and options, it is also recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Egg Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [1] - Key Words: Egg Market, Supply and Demand, Price Forecast Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: As of the end of October, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.359 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%, ending 9 consecutive months of growth. It is expected that the egg - laying hen inventory will remain high in the first quarter of the fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [6][22][38]. - Demand side: In October, egg sales were weak year - on - year and did not show a month - on - month recovery. In November, demand is unlikely to be concentrated, and overall demand is weak due to factors such as the substitution of vegetables and pork and market pessimism [6][33][38]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in November. For futures, the upside is limited, and it is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset. The fundamental inflection point may appear as early as the beginning of next year [6][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Price - Spot: In October, the spot price bottomed out and rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in November as the market waits for accelerated elimination to balance high inventory [8]. - Futures: The main contract switched to the 12 - contract. The price followed the spot trend. It is recommended to treat the current rise as a rebound and consider short - selling at high prices. The fundamental improvement may take a long time [9]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Elimination of Laying Hens - Price: In October, the average daily price of Hy - Line Brown culled hens was 4.39 yuan/jin, continuing to decline from September and at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The price has been trending down since August [10][18]. - Quantity: As of October 30, the weekly culling volume has been stable in September - October, slightly higher than the previous three years. The culling age has advanced, and it is estimated that the culling volume will remain stable or slightly increase in November [18][20]. 2.2 Inventory and Replenishment - Inventory: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. It is expected to remain high in the early fourth quarter and may decline at the end of the year [22]. - Replenishment: In October, the monthly output of layer chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, a decrease from September and a significant decrease compared with the same period in 2024. The replenishment enthusiasm may be affected by feed costs in the future [23]. - Laying Rate: In late October, the laying rate was about 91.94%, following the seasonal pattern [25]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - In October, the breeding profit was weak, at a very low level compared with the same period in previous years. It is expected to continue to operate at a low level in November [29][32]. 3. Demand Side - Sales Volume: In October, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas continued to be weak year - on - year and did not show a month - on - month recovery. In November, demand is expected to remain weak [6][33][38]. - Inventory: As of October 30, the inventory in the circulation link was at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory was still high, reflecting the weak demand this year [36]. - Substitute Prices: The pig price is expected to remain stable or slightly increase in the fourth quarter, currently at a low level. Vegetable prices are expected to rise seasonally in November - December, which may support egg prices [36][37]. 4. Later Outlook and Strategy - Spot: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in November [40]. - Futures: It is recommended to use interval rolling operations with a bearish mindset. For options, a wide - straddle double - selling strategy is recommended. The risk lies in the unexpected rise of spot prices in low - price areas [40]. - Strategy: For farmers and spot traders, the spot price may fluctuate at a low level in November. For futures speculators, it is recommended to use interval rolling short - selling operations and pay attention to the spot price in low - price areas [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, egg prices rebounded from a low level. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 3146 yuan per 500 kilograms, a increase of 60 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - Egg prices are at a low level, and the breeding side has a certain sentiment of supporting prices. Coupled with the drop in temperature, which is conducive to the storage and transportation of eggs, the sales speed in low - price areas has accelerated, supporting the rebound of spot prices. Under the boost of rising spot prices, the near - month contracts have also strengthened significantly. However, the inventory of laying hens in production is still high, and old hens have not been over - culled. High production capacity is still the main concern of the market, which may limit the upside space [6]. - The egg futures price has shown a low - level rebound trend recently. However, the pressure of high production capacity still exists, which may limit the rebound space [6]. - The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and pay attention to the amount of old hen culling [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The 2512 contract of eggs rebounded from a low level, with the closing price at 3146 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 60 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Low egg prices, favorable storage conditions, and increased sales speed support the spot price rebound. But high laying - hen inventory and non - over - culled old hens may limit the upside [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, focus on old hen culling volume [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 12 - contract of egg futures rebounded from a low level. The position was 176,581 lots, a decrease of 57,622 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 8860, and the net short position decreased slightly compared to last week's - 22,065 [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 2933 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 11 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active 12 - contract futures price and the spot average price was - 213 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of eggs was - 148 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a low level in the same period [26]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of October 30, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.96 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 5.3 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory and Restocking**: As of September 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 115.26, a month - on - month increase of 0.75%. The national new - chick index was 76.65, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [38]. - **Culling Index and Age**: As of September 30, 2025, the national culling laying - hen index was 124.63, a month - on - month increase of 33.14%. The national culling - hen age was 507 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of October 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2242.16 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2980 yuan per ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of October 24, 2025, the laying - hen breeding profit was - 0.45 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53]. - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of October 24, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 2.65 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was 8.58 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In September 2025, China's egg export volume was 13,215.79 tons, an increase of 1631.15 tons compared to the same period last year (11,584.64 tons), a year - on - year increase of 14.08%, and a month - on - month increase of 94.76 tons compared to the previous month [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of eggs is under pressure, and November is a relatively off - season in the second half of the year. Considering the current spot price has fallen to a historical low, the short - term egg price is likely to remain at the current level. If the active culling of laying hens continues, the future supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to continue to be weak without significant improvement, while the pre - Spring Festival contracts of the far - term may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [5][39][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the spot price of eggs was weak. The average price in the main producing areas dropped to around 2.7 yuan/jin, and then rebounded slightly after restocking. In the main selling areas, it dropped to around 2.97 yuan/jin and then rebounded to around 3.09 yuan/jin. - In November, the egg futures contracts were also weak. The supply of laying hens in production remained high, and the demand was average after the double festivals, resulting in weak egg prices. The November contract dropped to around 2748 at the lowest [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The supply side is still under pressure, and November is a relatively off - season. Given the current low spot price, the short - term egg price is likely to stay at the current level. If the active culling of laying hens continues, the supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to be weak, while the far - term pre - Spring Festival contracts may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, considering the weak oscillation of near - term contracts, shorting on rallies can be considered. - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In October, the spot price of eggs rebounded. The average price in the main producing areas reached around 2.91 yuan/jin and showed signs of stabilization, while in the main selling areas, it reached around 3.14 yuan/jin and then stabilized. - The October egg futures contracts were strong. Although the peak demand season was average, the significant increase in the spot price led to a rise in the futures price. However, due to the high inventory of laying hens in production, the increase in the futures price was limited [10]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Supply Side** - In September, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. Without considering delayed or concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production from October 2025 to January 2026 is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively. - In October, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 39.33% (low - middle level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 44.1% (medium level), and small - sized eggs was 16.57% (high - middle level). - The egg - laying rate in October changed little, remaining at a low level in the same period over the years, currently about 91.78%. It is expected to gradually increase as the weather gets colder. - In September, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises (accounting for about 50% of the national total) was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year decrease. The current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market is 2.73 yuan per chick, a decrease of 0.16 yuan per chick from the previous month. - Due to the weak egg price and average peak - season demand, the culling enthusiasm increased, and the culling volume rose. From October 24th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.02 million, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in that week was 499 days, the same as the previous week [11][12][14]. - **Demand Side** - In October, the demand was average, and the seasonal peak was weaker than in previous years. Although the recent demand has rebounded, it is still at a low - middle level in the same period over the years. As of October 25th, the weekly egg sales volume in the national representative selling areas was 7498 tons, a 1.6% increase from the previous week. - From January to September 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 36.5877 trillion yuan, a 4.5% year - on - year increase. In September, the absolute value of catering revenue was 450.9 billion yuan, a 0.9% year - on - year increase [21]. - **Inventory** - As of October 17th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, the same as the previous week [21]. - **Cost and Breeding Profit** - The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain stable in the short term. In October, the corn price was 2242 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 2984 yuan/ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2464 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.71 yuan/jin for one jin of eggs. - As of October 23rd, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 24th, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was - 0.51 yuan per hen, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [28]. - **Substitutes** - The vegetable price index continued to rise. On October 26th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 108.23. Although the vegetable price has increased significantly recently, it is at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. - The pork price fluctuated this month with little overall change. As of October 26th, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 15.17 yuan/kg. The low vegetable price has a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level fluctuating pork price has a relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [34]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The supply side is expected to be under pressure in November as the inventory of laying hens in production remains high. The demand in November is in the off - season, and the market performance is average. Considering the current low spot price, the short - term egg price is likely to remain at the current level. - Due to the previous low egg price and market losses, the culling enthusiasm of laying hens has increased. If the active culling continues, the future supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to be weak without significant improvement, while the pre - Spring Festival contracts of the far - term may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in pig prices is driven by emotional factors and seasonal consumption recovery, with a focus on the sustainability of secondary fattening entry [2][3] Pig Farming Sector - The concentration of large pig sales has led to a decrease in large pig inventory, widening the price gap and increasing the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, with a sales proportion of 2.09% from October 11-20, up by 1.07 percentage points [1][2] - The national average pig price on October 24 was 11.81 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.63 yuan/kg week-on-week [2] - The average weight of pigs sold continues to decline, with an average weight of 127.90 kg for the week of October 24, down by 0.35 kg week-on-week [2] - Long-term expectations indicate a downward shift in pig prices, with increasing losses in farming and enhanced expectations for capacity reduction policies, which may lead to a long-term upward shift in the price center [1][3] Cattle Sector - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly declined, while long-term trends suggest a potential upward cycle for beef prices due to previous long-term losses leading to capacity clearance [4] Dairy Sector - Raw milk prices are currently at a cyclical low, with a price of 3.04 yuan/kg as of October 17, remaining stable week-on-week but down 31% from the cyclical high [4] - The ongoing losses in raw milk are expected to drive continued capacity reduction, potentially stabilizing prices in the future [4] Poultry Sector - The price of white chickens remains stable, with a price of 6.88 yuan/kg as of October 24, reflecting a slight increase week-on-week [5] - Egg prices have decreased, with an average price of 6.06 yuan/kg, while chick prices remain stable [5] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have rebounded from a low, with a current price of 2984 yuan/ton as of October 24, down by 26 yuan/ton week-on-week [7] - The futures market for soybean meal showed a recovery, with the main contract closing at 2933 yuan/ton, up by 65 yuan/ton week-on-week [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][76]. Core Insights - The pig price has rebounded due to emotional factors, with a focus on the sustainability of secondary fattening [2][11]. - The beef market is experiencing a slight price decline in the short term, but a tightening supply is expected to lead to an upward cycle in beef prices by 2026-2027 [3][36]. - The poultry sector shows stable prices for white chickens, while egg prices are declining, indicating a potential recovery driven by capacity reduction [4][43]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices have increased, with the national average price at 11.81 yuan/kg as of October 24, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.63 yuan/kg [2][11]. - The average weight of pigs sold has decreased to 127.90 kg, with group farms averaging 123.94 kg and smallholders at 142.21 kg [2][23]. - The secondary fattening sales ratio increased to 2.09%, up by 1.07 percentage points week-on-week [2][11]. Beef Industry - Calf and fattening bull prices are at 32.13 yuan/kg and 25.67 yuan/kg, respectively, with year-to-date increases of 33.26% and 9.05% [3][36]. - The supply of beef is expected to tighten due to significant capacity reduction from previous losses, leading to a potential price increase in 2026-2027 [3][36]. Dairy Sector - The raw milk price is at a low of 3.04 yuan/kg, with a 31% decline from the peak [3][37]. - Continuous losses in the dairy sector are expected to drive capacity reduction, which may stabilize raw milk prices in the future [3][37]. Poultry Sector - The price of white feathered chickens is stable at 6.88 yuan/kg, with chick prices at 3.32 yuan each [4][43]. - The ongoing avian influenza outbreak may further restrict upstream production capacity, impacting the market [4][47]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have rebounded, with the current spot price at 2984 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight week-on-week decrease of 26 yuan/ton [4][55]. - The futures market shows a recovery in soybean meal prices, supported by declining inventories and import costs [4][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of eggs still has a rebound expectation, but the space may be limited due to high supply; the focus of the futures market game is whether the spot price increase can cover the premium of the futures. Currently, it is the traditional egg stocking season, and the downward space of the spot price is limited. There is a small increase expectation but no large increase space in terms of driving force. The futures market position is high, and it is judged to be in the bottom - building stage, but the space is not optimistic, and the rhythm may be repeated. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices first declined and then stabilized, with a slight increase in the second half of the week. After the temperature dropped, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm increased, but the sufficient supply in the producing areas limited the increase space. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, in Guantao at 2.53 yuan/jin, in Huilongguan in the sales area dropped to 3.12 yuan/jin, and in Dongguan dropped to 2.77 yuan/jin [11]. - **Restocking and Culling**: In September, the national restocking volume decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Since September, the egg price has been weaker than normal, and the culling of old chickens has increased significantly, with the culling chicken price falling to a multi - year low, and the chicken age dropping to 499 days [11]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6%. In the future, the inventory is expected to increase, with a peak of 1.373 billion in November this year, and the supply side still points to an oversupply [11]. - **Demand Side**: The pre - festival stocking for the Double Festivals is coming to an end, and the post - festival consumption is dull. With the temperature drop, the egg storage conditions improve, and the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory before the Spring Festival [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Last week, domestic egg prices first declined and then stabilized, with a slight increase in the second half of the week. After the temperature drop, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm increased, but the sufficient supply in the producing areas limited the increase space [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price dropped after the festival, the futures basis returned to a low level, driving the monthly spread to decline [23]. - **Culling Chicken Price**: The egg price is not strong during the peak season, the culling of old chickens has increased, and the culling chicken price has dropped significantly, but the chicken age remains at a high level of 499 days [26]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Egg Chicken Restocking**: In September, the national restocking volume decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1% [33]. - **Culling Chicken Slaughter**: Since September, the egg price has been weaker than normal, and the culling of old chickens has increased significantly, with the culling chicken price falling to a multi - year low, and the chicken age dropping to 499 days, but still far from excessive culling [36]. - **Inventory Trend**: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared with August and a year - on - year increase of 6%. In the future, the inventory is expected to increase, with a peak of 1.373 billion in November this year, and the supply side still points to an oversupply [38][41]. 3.4. Demand Side - The pre - festival stocking for the Double Festivals is coming to an end, and the post - festival consumption is dull. With the temperature drop, the egg storage conditions improve, and the consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing inventory before the Spring Festival [46] 3.5. Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and month - on - month, and the profit is at a seasonal low level [51] 3.6. Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current high laying - hen inventory and lack of over - culling of old hens result in a high - production situation, which, combined with the post - holiday seasonal decline in consumption, is expected to keep the egg supply - demand in a loose state and suppress near - month contracts. The post - holiday drop in spot prices also affects the futures market. However, continuous losses reduce market restocking enthusiasm, which is beneficial for long - term prices. Overall, short - term near - month contracts are restricted by high - production pressure and falling spot prices, while far - month contracts may perform better due to the logic of production capacity reduction [6]. - For near - month contracts, a bearish trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the number of old hen culls [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, egg futures were in a low - level oscillation. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 2959 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 8 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: High laying - hen inventory and post - holiday consumption decline will maintain the loose supply - demand situation and suppress near - month contracts. Continuous losses reduce restocking enthusiasm, which is good for long - term prices. Near - month contracts are restricted in the short term, while far - month contracts may be stronger [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a bearish trading strategy for near - month contracts and monitor old hen culling volume [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 12 - contract oscillated at a low level, with an open interest of 218,645 lots, an increase of 26,310 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 traders was - 23,920, a slight decrease in net short positions compared to last week's - 33,849 [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 30 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3008 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 70 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 12 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 49 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 220 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [26]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of October 16, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.02 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables was 5.03 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - side: Inventory and Restocking**: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 114.42, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The national new - chick index was 73.35, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44% [38]. - **Culling Index and Age**: As of August 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 93.61, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The national average age of culled hens was 510 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of October 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2271.57 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2950 yuan per ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of October 10, 2025, the egg - hen breeding profit was - 0.4 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53]. - **Egg - hen Chick and Culled - hen Prices**: As of October 10, 2025, the average price of egg - hen chicks in the main production areas was 2.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 8.92 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In August 2025, China's egg export volume was 13,121.03 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.82% (1281.43 tons more than the same period last year) and a month - on - month increase of 264.92 tons compared to the previous month [63]. 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: A figure shows the change in its price - to - earnings ratio, but no specific data is provided [65].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral outlook for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, with a focus on the performance of specific companies within the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the performance of 22 key listed companies in the agricultural sector, with an expected 47% year-on-year drop in combined earnings for the first three quarters of 2025. However, certain segments, such as egg production and animal health, are expected to show notable growth [4][5]. - The pig farming sector is experiencing losses due to falling prices, with the average price of live pigs dropping to 13.9 yuan/kg, a 28% decrease year-on-year. This has led to a significant decline in profits for major pig farming companies [4][5]. - In the poultry sector, while white chicken prices are stabilizing, yellow chicken is seeing seasonal demand increases. The average price for commodity broiler chicks is reported at 2.67 yuan/chick, down 13% year-on-year [4]. - The animal health segment is witnessing a recovery in demand driven by improved cash flow for downstream customers, with a 6.73% increase in vaccine approvals from July to September 2025 [4]. - The pet food industry is maintaining high growth domestically, with online sales growth of 7% in Q3 2025, despite a decline in export performance due to tariffs [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The average profit for self-bred and purchased pig farming is reported at 43.2 and -116.7 yuan per head respectively, indicating a significant disparity in profitability among companies [4][5]. - Major pig farming company Muyuan Foods is expected to report a 50% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3 2025 [4]. Poultry Farming - The report notes a seasonal recovery in yellow chicken prices, while white chicken prices remain under pressure due to oversupply [4]. - The average price for commodity egg-laying chicks is reported at 3.24 yuan/chick, reflecting a 4% year-on-year decrease [4]. Animal Health - The demand for veterinary vaccines is recovering, with a notable increase in sales driven by improved cash flow in the farming sector [4]. - The prices of veterinary raw materials have increased, with prices for certain antibiotics rising by 34% and 26% year-on-year respectively [4]. Pet Food - Domestic pet food companies are expected to continue high growth rates, with specific companies like Guibao and Petty showing year-on-year profit increases of 2% and flat performance respectively [4][5].