智通财经APP获悉，随着美国政治环境的高度动荡引发市场涌向看空对冲，美元交易员正以创纪录的成本押注美元将出现更深度的下跌。能够从美元走弱中 获利的短期期权溢价已扩大至自2011年有数据以来的最高水平。看空情绪并不局限于短端——投资者对美元长期前景的悲观程度，至少已达到2025年5月以 来的最高水平。尽管美元指数周二小幅走高，但其此前连续三个交易日的跌幅，为去年4月美国关税动荡以来之最。若跌势如期权价格所暗示的那样重新展 开，美元可能跌至四年来的最低水平。 丹斯克银行高级分析师Jesper Fjarstedt表示："不可预测的美国政治局势毫无疑问对美元不利。过去一周的发展，促使市场重新计入政治风险溢价。" 今年以来，美元在十国集团(G10)货币中表现垫底，这表明投资者看待这一传统避险资产的方式正在发生转变。对美国财政赤字上升、制裁风险和贸易摩擦 的担忧，以及投资者加速向黄金和其他储备资产分散配置，正共同对美元构成压力。 美元这轮走势背后不仅仅是情绪变化，还有大量资金流动。周一，通过美国存管信托与清算公司(DTCC)的交易量达到历史第二高，仅次于2025年4月3日那 次抛售。在四日滚动平均口径下，市场参与度已升至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, driven by political uncertainties and resulting in record-high costs for dollar bearish hedging tools. Investors are increasingly pessimistic about the dollar's long-term prospects, marking the lowest sentiment since May 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Investors are heavily betting against the dollar, with short-term option premiums reaching the highest level since Bloomberg began tracking this data in 2011 [1]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index experienced a slight increase, but the previous three trading days saw the largest drop since April of last year, indicating a potential decline to a four-year low if the trend continues [4]. - The dollar is currently underperforming among the G10 currencies, reflecting a shift in investor perception towards this traditional safe-haven asset [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing the Dollar - Multiple pressures are affecting the dollar, including concerns over high US fiscal deficits, sanction risks, trade tensions, and a global trend of diversifying reserve assets into gold and other commodities [4]. - The recent dollar weakness is not solely sentiment-driven but is accompanied by significant capital flows, with trading volumes reaching historical highs [5]. - A severe one-sided market position is evident, with approximately two-thirds of euro and Australian dollar option trades betting on further dollar weakness [6]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Hedging Costs - Market anxiety is reflected in the soaring volatility of the dollar, which has reached its highest level since September of last year [7]. - The prices of butterfly options, which measure the demand for hedging against extreme price fluctuations, have surged to a seven-month high, indicating that traders are preparing for a potential further decline in the dollar [7]. - Speculation exists that the US government may collaborate with Japanese monetary authorities to stabilize the declining yen, further exacerbating the downward pressure on the dollar [7].