现任主席鲍威尔任期将于明年5月结束，白宫方面也似乎进一步确认了美联储下一届主席的人选，如外界所预期，周二美国总统特朗普积极暗示凯文·哈塞特 为下任美联储主席，并将于明年年初宣布最终人选。 在美国期货市场，与担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）挂钩的短期收益率曲线结构的需求正在上升，SOFR与美联储利率决策的预期结果密切相关。这种押注反 映了市场预期，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔5月任期结束后，货币政策宽松力度可能会加快。 凯文·哈塞特是什么来头？ 凯文·哈塞特为白宫国家经济委员会主任，他与特朗普的紧密关系重塑了他的公共形象。作为特朗普2016年竞选团队及首任任期内的经济顾问，哈塞特是 2017年大规模减税法案的主要设计师之一，也是特朗普在贸易战中"经济民族主义"论调的重要支持者。 他常扮演的角色是：用主流经济学的语言，为特朗普的非传统政策提供理论包装。 若他执掌美联储，市场最大的担忧并非其专业能力，而是其与总统之间 超乎寻常的信任纽带，可能侵蚀货币政策的独立性根基。 他的当选对外界而言意味着可能是一名"影子美联储主席"，市场人士指出，这可能会使美联储难以有效传达货币政策信息，并在市场亟需清晰指引之际，造 成一些混乱。 ...

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 147, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous close of 147.71 [1] - Political risks associated with the upcoming Japanese Liberal Democratic Party presidential election may impact the yen [1] - If candidate Sanae Takaichi wins, the yen may initially weaken due to concerns over her dovish stance delaying the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - Despite high inflation in Japan exceeding the central bank's target for three consecutive years, the possibility of an interest rate hike in October may not be completely ruled out even if Takaichi is elected [1] - The election outcome may not have a lasting impact on the yen, as seen in the case of candidate Shigeru Ishiba, whose initial strengthening of the yen was reversed due to his preference for maintaining a loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY pair previously failed to sustain a breakthrough above the 148.20 level, leading to a downward correction [2] - A key bearish trend line is forming, with resistance at the 148.00 level [2] - The USD/JPY faced selling pressure and dropped below the 148.00 level, further retreating below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upward movement from 146.30 to 148.16 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The future direction of the Japanese yen will largely depend on the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, rather than domestic political factors [1] Group 1 - If the resignation of Shinto Abe leads to increased instability within the Liberal Democratic Party, the market may price in a higher political risk premium [1] - This could result in a surge of safe-haven inflows into the yen, which would help to mitigate pressure on Japanese government bond yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment regarding interest rate cuts has shifted, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index, which closed up 0.71% at 98.394, while gold and silver prices experienced declines due to the stronger dollar [1][2]. Market Overview - On August 26, the US dollar index rebounded, closing at 98.394, up 0.71% as optimism about interest rate cuts waned [1][2]. - Spot gold traded within a narrow range, ultimately closing down 0.19% at $3365.8 per ounce, while spot silver fell more significantly, down 0.72% to $38.57 per ounce [1][2]. Key News Summary - President Trump signed a document to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook from her position, effective immediately, which caused a short-term drop in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices by over $20 [3]. - Cook faced unprecedented allegations of mortgage fraud, which, if proven, could lead to criminal charges. Trump's demand for her immediate resignation has sparked significant legal and institutional controversy [3]. - The potential removal of Cook could allow Trump to reshape the Federal Reserve's leadership, enhancing his control over monetary policy and undermining the central bank's traditional independence [3][4]. Implications for Precious Metals - The market anticipates an over 80% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September, influenced by Powell's dovish stance at the global central bank meeting, which could support gold prices [4]. - The political intervention in the Federal Reserve's operations has created uncertainty in policy, leading to a weaker dollar and lower real interest rates, thus increasing gold's investment appeal [4]. - If political pressures continue, gold and other precious metals may receive long-term structural price support [4]. Trading Outlook - Precious metals are expected to maintain a strong upward trend in September, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and political risk premiums [5]. - If the Federal Reserve signals clear easing in September, gold prices may break above $3440; however, unexpected inflation or hawkish statements could lead to a drop towards $3380 [5]. - Silver is likely to follow gold's movements but may underperform due to its industrial characteristics, with attention needed around the $39 level [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the disappointment in the market following Chairman Powell's cautious testimony, which did not align with traders' expectations for dovish signals [3] - Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" approach without providing clear guidance on potential interest rate adjustments in July, creating a policy vacuum interpreted by the forex market as long-term restrictive monetary conditions [3] - The lack of clear dovish communication has unexpectedly weakened the US dollar, indicating that market participants were prepared for more accommodative statements [3] Group 2 - Political uncertainty regarding the potential announcement of Powell's successor by President Trump as early as September adds complexity to monetary policy expectations [3] - The traditional transition period of three to four months may accelerate, fundamentally altering the dynamics of the Federal Reserve's independence and potentially impacting policy expectations before actual leadership changes [3] - The political pressure surrounding interest rate policy creates a complex environment where market expectations include the probability of political succession, posing external challenges to central bank credibility and necessitating a recalibration of policy continuity assumptions [3]

在这个充满政治戏剧和市场猜测的季节里，唐纳德·特朗普总统再次成为了头条新闻的制造者，这次的 目标是美国经济的守护者——联邦储备系统。 据知情人士透露，特朗普正考虑打破传统，大幅提前宣布下一任美联储主席的人选，这距离现任主席杰 罗姆·鲍威尔的任期结束还有近一年的时间。 这场不同寻常的"选秀"不仅是对鲍威尔的公开施压，更是一场试图在正式交接前就影响货币政策的"后 座司机"策略，让华尔街的交易员们既感到困惑，又嗅到了潜在的交易机会。 特朗普对鲍威尔的不满早已不是秘密。他认为鲍威尔在降息问题上过于"谨慎"，未能充分利用货币政策 来"涡轮增压"经济，配合他那"一个、大、美丽的法案"（The One, Big, Beautiful Bill）所描绘的增长蓝 图。 白宫的官方说法是，美联储应该追求"以增长为导向"的政策，但翻译过来，这通常意味着：总统希望看 到更低的利率，而且是越快越好。 现在，特朗普的耐心似乎已经耗尽。他正在考虑在今年秋天，甚至可能在夏天就宣布他心目中的下一任 美联储掌门人。这比通常的过渡期提前了整整半年。 这个想法的核心是创造一个"候任主席"，让这位被选中人能够提前进入公众视野，通过公开发言来塑造 市场 ...

长和累计亏损近千亿港元，李嘉诚或将资产重构，长和发布公告后，港口交易已有眉目，还拦得住吗？ 自3月4号以后，港府曾多次约见长和实业有关代表，就港口交易商谈合理的解决方案；港澳办多次转发 《大公报》的檄文，商务部专家、政界人士等人批判李嘉诚"在商不言强"，强调"商人无祖国是谬论"。 然而长和依旧我行我素，仅仅通过消息人士放风称本周不会签署协议，终于等到了市监总局的下场。整 个过程不难看出，国家不是没给机会，反而多次苦口婆心地劝告，几天前国家还出台了《反外国制裁 法》，打消李嘉诚对美国制裁的顾虑，但李氏家族的表现却令人失望。 几天前，美方发言人就港口交易表态，称希望美企与长和达成交易，以削弱中国对巴拿马运河的"控 制"。紧接着在3月31日，中国外交部再度发声，再次强调中方坚决反对利用经济胁迫等手段损害他国正 当权益的行为。一场关于海运物流的大国博弈已经展开，长和的这桩交易已经被排除在外，如果国家叫 停，那么李嘉诚后悔也晚了，不但损失了数百亿港元，还有个人的口碑和形象。时间不等人，对李嘉诚 来说，在有关部门作出调查结论前，以国家利益为重，主动终止交易，或许更为明智。 即便如此，长和企业仍然不愿回头，3月31日，该公 ...