英国绿党在政策立场、选民基础和选举表现上，已清晰地将自己定位为比工党更加左翼的进步派政治选择。尤其 是在经济平等、气候正义、社会改革等议题上，绿党的主张比现任工党政府更为激进和进步。 斯宾塞在采访中表示："很明显，人们已经准备好迎接改变。我们拒绝那些一直以来将我们排除在外的政党，也拒 绝那些由亿万富翁资助、拥有既得利益的政党。很明显，今天在场的人们已经决定投票给像我这样一位非常普通 的人。" 智通财经APP获悉，绿党赢得了曼彻斯特一席下议院特别选举，凸显出其对英国首相基尔·斯塔默所领导的执政工 党在左翼侧翼所构成的威胁。这次特别选举失败对英国首相基尔·斯塔默领导的执政党工党来说是一个重大打击， 该党此前曾在19个月前以绝大多数选票赢得了重要席位。这一结果也预示着英国执政党可能将在5月份的一轮地方 选举中遭受重大损失，在那里它必须与包括绿党和奈杰尔·法拉奇领导的改革党在内的多个政党势力进行激烈斗 争。随着斯塔默左翼票仓流失，英国政治版图碎片化加深、英国本土资产面临更高政治风险溢价。 绿党候选人汉娜·斯宾塞(Hannah Spencer)是一名当地水管工，她在戈顿和登顿(Gorton and Denton)获得了 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周二，英国借贷成本下降，原因是英国首相基尔·斯塔默巩固了其地位，下台的风 险消退。长期债券涨幅最大，英国30年期国债收益率在周一大幅上涨后回落4个基点至5.31%，当时市 场普遍认为斯塔默可能被迫辞职。英国10年期国债收益率也下跌了类似的幅度，至4.50%。 周二，斯塔默的职位似乎稳固了，因为他获得了内阁所有成员的公开支持，包括潜在的竞争对手韦斯· 斯特里廷和埃德·米利班德，以及另一位可能的继任者，前副总理安吉拉·雷纳。 皇家伦敦资产管理有限公司利率和现金主管Craig Inches表示，如果政治动荡平息，投资者将重新关注 英国央行潜在的降息、通胀数据和长期政府债务的供应。Inches称："尽管存在政治闹剧，但金边债券 仍然看起来很有价值。" 此前，斯塔默的职位受到威胁，因为两名关键助手因工党资深人士彼得·曼德尔森被任命为英国驻华盛 顿大使而相继辞职，曼德尔森与爱泼斯坦有紧密联系。 然而，这种喘息之机可能只是暂时的。 Inches说道："斯特里廷和雷纳今天暂时收起了他们的仇恨，除非再出现像爱泼斯坦事件那样的重大变 故，否则斯塔默面临的下一个障碍似乎是五月份的补选。" 分析指出，没有其他期限 ...

智通财经APP注意到，英国新一轮的政治动荡在周四波及该国金融市场，重创了英镑和长期债券。这导致两年期与 10 年期英债收益率之差扩大至 2018 年以 来的最高水平，同时英镑在同类货币中表现最差。30 年期收益率则触及 11 月以来的最高位。 市场波动发生之际，外界对首相基尔·斯塔默掌控权力的能力疑虑增加，推高了投资者要求的政治风险溢价。尽管明知彼得·曼德尔森与已故劣迹金融家杰弗 里·爱泼斯坦有关联，斯塔默仍决定任命其为驻美大使，这一决定使他面临日益沉重的压力。 瑞穗国际策略师艾芙琳·戈麦斯-列希蒂表示："曼德尔森风波正迅速演变成对斯塔默以及长端英债的威胁，而长端英债对任何负面政治新闻都保持高度敏 感。" 英镑下行风险加剧 尽管长期英债收益率仍远低于去年的峰值，但鉴于工党在民调中的惨淡表现以及斯塔默本人创纪录的低支持率，不断上升的借贷成本是其面临的又一棘手问 题。外界预计该党在 5 月的地方选举中表现不佳。 10 年期英债收益率一度上升 4 个基点至 4.59%，使其与变动不大的两年期英债收益率之差扩大至 86 个基点。30 年期英债收益率则上涨 5 个基点至 5.38%。 长期债务对政治和财政风险更为敏感， ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着美国政治环境的高度动荡引发市场涌向看空对冲，美元交易员正以创纪录的成本押注美元将出现更深度的下跌。能够从美元走弱中 获利的短期期权溢价已扩大至自2011年有数据以来的最高水平。看空情绪并不局限于短端——投资者对美元长期前景的悲观程度，至少已达到2025年5月以 来的最高水平。尽管美元指数周二小幅走高，但其此前连续三个交易日的跌幅，为去年4月美国关税动荡以来之最。若跌势如期权价格所暗示的那样重新展 开，美元可能跌至四年来的最低水平。 丹斯克银行高级分析师Jesper Fjarstedt表示："不可预测的美国政治局势毫无疑问对美元不利。过去一周的发展，促使市场重新计入政治风险溢价。" 今年以来，美元在十国集团(G10)货币中表现垫底，这表明投资者看待这一传统避险资产的方式正在发生转变。对美国财政赤字上升、制裁风险和贸易摩擦 的担忧，以及投资者加速向黄金和其他储备资产分散配置，正共同对美元构成压力。 美元这轮走势背后不仅仅是情绪变化，还有大量资金流动。周一，通过美国存管信托与清算公司(DTCC)的交易量达到历史第二高，仅次于2025年4月3日那 次抛售。在四日滚动平均口径下，市场参与度已升至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, driven by political uncertainties and resulting in record-high costs for dollar bearish hedging tools. Investors are increasingly pessimistic about the dollar's long-term prospects, marking the lowest sentiment since May 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Investors are heavily betting against the dollar, with short-term option premiums reaching the highest level since Bloomberg began tracking this data in 2011 [1]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index experienced a slight increase, but the previous three trading days saw the largest drop since April of last year, indicating a potential decline to a four-year low if the trend continues [4]. - The dollar is currently underperforming among the G10 currencies, reflecting a shift in investor perception towards this traditional safe-haven asset [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing the Dollar - Multiple pressures are affecting the dollar, including concerns over high US fiscal deficits, sanction risks, trade tensions, and a global trend of diversifying reserve assets into gold and other commodities [4]. - The recent dollar weakness is not solely sentiment-driven but is accompanied by significant capital flows, with trading volumes reaching historical highs [5]. - A severe one-sided market position is evident, with approximately two-thirds of euro and Australian dollar option trades betting on further dollar weakness [6]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Hedging Costs - Market anxiety is reflected in the soaring volatility of the dollar, which has reached its highest level since September of last year [7]. - The prices of butterfly options, which measure the demand for hedging against extreme price fluctuations, have surged to a seven-month high, indicating that traders are preparing for a potential further decline in the dollar [7]. - Speculation exists that the US government may collaborate with Japanese monetary authorities to stabilize the declining yen, further exacerbating the downward pressure on the dollar [7].

钛媒体App 1月27日消息，据报道，交易员正为押注美元遭遇更深度的抛售支付创纪录的成本。美国政 治局势动荡，触发市场涌向看跌对冲工具。数据显示，能够从美元走弱中获利的短期期权溢价已升至自 2011年开始统计以来的最高水平。而看空情绪并不局限于短端——投资者对美元长期前景的悲观程度也 至少是2025年5月以来的最强。美元即期指数周二小幅走高，但该指数在此前三个交易日的跌幅为去年4 月美国关税动荡以来的最大。如果像期权价格所暗示的那样跌势重启，美元可能跌至四年来的最低水 平。丹斯克银行资深分析师Jesper Fjarstedt表示："美国政治形势难以预测，毫无疑问对美元是利 空。"他称，"过去一周的事态发展，推动市场重新嵌入政治风险溢价。"（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected reaction of the foreign exchange market to tariff threats, highlighting that increased political uncertainty in the U.S. tends to weaken the dollar rather than the euro as commonly assumed [1] Group 1 - Khoon Goh, the head of Asian research at ANZ, notes that the market has priced in the political risk premium associated with the dollar [1] - The current major concern is the extent and strength of Europe's response to President Trump's policies [1] - It appears that a trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe is unlikely to be reached, and the U.S.-UK trade agreement is also in limbo [1]

Core Viewpoint - There is increasing evidence that the political risk premium associated with U.S. assets, such as the dollar, is significantly higher now, which may lead foreign investors to reduce their exposure to U.S. assets [1] Group 1: Impact on Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are likely to decrease their exposure to U.S. assets due to heightened political risk [1] - It remains debatable whether this will directly reduce exposure to U.S. equities, but it is expected to encourage investment funds to lower their nominal dollar exposure related to U.S. stock holdings [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The anticipated reduction in exposure to U.S. assets is expected to put pressure on the dollar and create upward momentum for precious metal trading [1] - Increasing uncertainty is noted, with a diminished ability to price risks confidently [1]

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting on a dovish policy shift and a rate cut in December, following unexpectedly weak ADP employment data [1] - The current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May next year, and President Trump has hinted at Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, with an official announcement expected early next year [3] - The demand for the short-term yield curve linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is rising, reflecting market expectations of accelerated monetary policy easing after Powell's term ends [3] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the White House National Economic Council, has a close relationship with Trump and was a key architect of the 2017 tax cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed if he becomes Chair [5] - The nomination of Hassett signals Trump's strongest public criticism of the current Fed's interest rate policy, potentially weakening the long-standing "firewall" between the White House and the Fed [7] - Hassett's inclination towards growth-focused easing policies may lead to quicker rate cuts, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and market predictability [7] Group 3 - The market has not fully priced in the implications of Hassett's potential appointment, but confirmation could lead to a comprehensive reassessment based on "political risk premium" and "easing expectations" [7] - A more dovish Fed could weaken the dollar's interest rate advantage and damage its status as a global reserve currency [7] - Gold prices may rise due to expectations of monetary easing, a weaker dollar, and increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and financial uncertainties [7] Group 4 - The yield curve in the U.S. Treasury market is expected to steepen, with short-term rates declining faster due to rate cut expectations, while long-term bonds may face selling pressure due to inflation concerns [8] - The nomination of Hassett represents a significant test of the independence of the U.S. central bank and the stability of the modern monetary financial system [10]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 147, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous close of 147.71 [1] - Political risks associated with the upcoming Japanese Liberal Democratic Party presidential election may impact the yen [1] - If candidate Sanae Takaichi wins, the yen may initially weaken due to concerns over her dovish stance delaying the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - Despite high inflation in Japan exceeding the central bank's target for three consecutive years, the possibility of an interest rate hike in October may not be completely ruled out even if Takaichi is elected [1] - The election outcome may not have a lasting impact on the yen, as seen in the case of candidate Shigeru Ishiba, whose initial strengthening of the yen was reversed due to his preference for maintaining a loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY pair previously failed to sustain a breakthrough above the 148.20 level, leading to a downward correction [2] - A key bearish trend line is forming, with resistance at the 148.00 level [2] - The USD/JPY faced selling pressure and dropped below the 148.00 level, further retreating below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upward movement from 146.30 to 148.16 [2]