Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently trading around 147, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous close of 147.71 [1] - Political risks associated with the upcoming Japanese Liberal Democratic Party presidential election may impact the yen [1] - If candidate Sanae Takaichi wins, the yen may initially weaken due to concerns over her dovish stance delaying the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - Despite high inflation in Japan exceeding the central bank's target for three consecutive years, the possibility of an interest rate hike in October may not be completely ruled out even if Takaichi is elected [1] - The election outcome may not have a lasting impact on the yen, as seen in the case of candidate Shigeru Ishiba, whose initial strengthening of the yen was reversed due to his preference for maintaining a loose monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY pair previously failed to sustain a breakthrough above the 148.20 level, leading to a downward correction [2] - A key bearish trend line is forming, with resistance at the 148.00 level [2] - The USD/JPY faced selling pressure and dropped below the 148.00 level, further retreating below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upward movement from 146.30 to 148.16 [2]

马来亚 银行全球市场外汇研究与策略区域主管Saktiandi Supaat：日元后续走向更多将取决于美联储与日 本央行的政策分歧，而非国内政治。如果石破辞职升级为自民党内部的不稳定性，市场可能会以更大的 政治风险溢价来定价，从而放大流入日元的避险资金潮，并平抑日本国债收益率的压力。 ...

摘要周二（8月26日），周一，随着市场对降息前景的乐观情绪有所平息，美元指数反弹，重回98关口 上方，最终收涨0.71%，报98.394。受制于美元走强，现货黄金在接近15美元的狭窄区间内横盘震荡， 最终收跌0.19%，收报3365.8美元/盎司；现货白银回落幅度更大，最终收跌0.72%，报38.57美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 尤为引人关注的是，库克作为美联储史上首位非裔女性理事，系由前总统拜登委任，其任期原本延续至 2038年。若她被迫离任，特朗普将获得提名新成员的机会，有望在七人理事会中占据多数席位，从而对 利率决策产生深远影响。当前市场普遍预测，美联储在9月会议上降息的可能性超过80%，而鲍威尔在 全球央行年会上展现出的鸽派立场更是加剧了这一预期，显示出在外部政治施压与内部决策考量的双重 作用下，美联储或将于9月重启降息周期，为黄金价格构筑有力支撑。 美国总统特朗普签署文件，宣布解除美联储理事库克的职务且立即生效。消息公布后，美元指数短线急 跌，现货黄金应声拉升逾20美元，抹去日内跌幅。 展望后市，9月贵金属预计延续震荡偏强走势，核心驱动来自美联储降息预期与政治风险溢价。短期若 美联储9月释放明确宽松信 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the disappointment in the market following Chairman Powell's cautious testimony, which did not align with traders' expectations for dovish signals [3] - Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" approach without providing clear guidance on potential interest rate adjustments in July, creating a policy vacuum interpreted by the forex market as long-term restrictive monetary conditions [3] - The lack of clear dovish communication has unexpectedly weakened the US dollar, indicating that market participants were prepared for more accommodative statements [3] Group 2 - Political uncertainty regarding the potential announcement of Powell's successor by President Trump as early as September adds complexity to monetary policy expectations [3] - The traditional transition period of three to four months may accelerate, fundamentally altering the dynamics of the Federal Reserve's independence and potentially impacting policy expectations before actual leadership changes [3] - The political pressure surrounding interest rate policy creates a complex environment where market expectations include the probability of political succession, posing external challenges to central bank credibility and necessitating a recalibration of policy continuity assumptions [3]

在这个充满政治戏剧和市场猜测的季节里，唐纳德·特朗普总统再次成为了头条新闻的制造者，这次的 目标是美国经济的守护者——联邦储备系统。 据知情人士透露，特朗普正考虑打破传统，大幅提前宣布下一任美联储主席的人选，这距离现任主席杰 罗姆·鲍威尔的任期结束还有近一年的时间。 这场不同寻常的"选秀"不仅是对鲍威尔的公开施压，更是一场试图在正式交接前就影响货币政策的"后 座司机"策略，让华尔街的交易员们既感到困惑，又嗅到了潜在的交易机会。 特朗普对鲍威尔的不满早已不是秘密。他认为鲍威尔在降息问题上过于"谨慎"，未能充分利用货币政策 来"涡轮增压"经济，配合他那"一个、大、美丽的法案"（The One, Big, Beautiful Bill）所描绘的增长蓝 图。 白宫的官方说法是，美联储应该追求"以增长为导向"的政策，但翻译过来，这通常意味着：总统希望看 到更低的利率，而且是越快越好。 现在，特朗普的耐心似乎已经耗尽。他正在考虑在今年秋天，甚至可能在夏天就宣布他心目中的下一任 美联储掌门人。这比通常的过渡期提前了整整半年。 这个想法的核心是创造一个"候任主席"，让这位被选中人能够提前进入公众视野，通过公开发言来塑造 市场 ...

长和累计亏损近千亿港元，李嘉诚或将资产重构，长和发布公告后，港口交易已有眉目，还拦得住吗？ 自3月4号以后，港府曾多次约见长和实业有关代表，就港口交易商谈合理的解决方案；港澳办多次转发 《大公报》的檄文，商务部专家、政界人士等人批判李嘉诚"在商不言强"，强调"商人无祖国是谬论"。 然而长和依旧我行我素，仅仅通过消息人士放风称本周不会签署协议，终于等到了市监总局的下场。整 个过程不难看出，国家不是没给机会，反而多次苦口婆心地劝告，几天前国家还出台了《反外国制裁 法》，打消李嘉诚对美国制裁的顾虑，但李氏家族的表现却令人失望。 几天前，美方发言人就港口交易表态，称希望美企与长和达成交易，以削弱中国对巴拿马运河的"控 制"。紧接着在3月31日，中国外交部再度发声，再次强调中方坚决反对利用经济胁迫等手段损害他国正 当权益的行为。一场关于海运物流的大国博弈已经展开，长和的这桩交易已经被排除在外，如果国家叫 停，那么李嘉诚后悔也晚了，不但损失了数百亿港元，还有个人的口碑和形象。时间不等人，对李嘉诚 来说，在有关部门作出调查结论前，以国家利益为重，主动终止交易，或许更为明智。 即便如此，长和企业仍然不愿回头，3月31日，该公 ...