发生了什么？就在2026年开年，一个历史性的转折点悄然落地：黄金，正式取代美国国债，成为了全球央行持有的最大储备资产。 这不是预测，而是正在发生的现实。 根据世界黄金协会的最新数据， 各国央行持有的黄金总价值已逼近4万亿美元——3.93万亿美元，首次超过了其持有的美国国债——3.88 万亿美元。上一次 出现这种情况，还要追溯到遥远的1996年。 注意了！这不仅仅是一个简单的资产价格波动，这背后是全球近百个国家央行的"集体选择"。究竟是什么原因，让这些掌管国家钱袋子的最精明机构，不 惜在金价已处于历史高位的情况下，仍然疯狂买入黄金？这场巨变，又给我们普通人的钱袋子释放了哪些不可忽视的信号？ 王爷说财经讯：历史时刻来了！你敢信吗？全球财富的"压舱石"，一夜之间换主角了！ 01、历史性反超：不仅仅是金价上涨，更是央行"囤金"竞赛！ 很多人第一反应是：金价涨得太厉害了！没错，黄金在2025年涨幅惊人，一度突破每盎司4500美元，全年涨幅高达近70%。 但这只是故事的一面。 更关键的另一面是，各国央行们不是在观望，而是在真金白银地"买买买"。 想象一下，全球央行就像一个超级投资俱乐部。 世界黄金协会2025年中的一份调 ...

文/ 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所 长、研究员 张明 ， 中国社会科 学院金融研究所助理研究员 王瑶 近年来，虽然各类机构和个人投资者持有的美国国债总量稳健增长，但美 债海外投资者的持有规模占比不断 下降，其内部的持有结构也正发生深 刻变化。基于尚持有7300亿美元美国国债和仍为第三大海外持有国的 现 实，中国应加强储备资产多元化，由企业更多主导对美国的金融投资，关 注美国国债利率变动可能带来的 风险，同时抓住机遇提供中国版本的安 全资产，进一步推进人民币国际化。 2025年3月，美国国债的海外持有格局出现了一个标志 性变化：英国持有的规模超越中国大陆，成为仅次于日本的 第二大海外持有国。这一排名的更迭， 源于英国与中国大陆 分别增持和减持美国国债。 美国国债的海外投资者占比下降 美国国债规模扩张势头不减，再度达到历史顶点。近年 来，美国国债数量猛增，2025年10月30日的存量总额高达 38.11万亿美元，相较于2024年底的36.22 万亿美元已扩张近2 万亿美元。新冠疫情以来，美国国债与美国GDP之比持续保 持在高位水平，截至2025年第二季度达118.78%。 值得注意的是，据2025年10 ...

2025/12/19 作者：刘诗瑶 无无无无无无无 从业资格证号：F3041949 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 邮箱：liushiyao@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 观点小结 ◼ 2018年至今，中美贸易摩擦、俄乌冲突等事件加速了国际格局的多极化，削弱了各国对单一货币储备体系的依赖；同时，金融制裁也侵蚀了 以美欧为主导的货币体系的信用。这两大趋势共同推升了全球对于"储备资产多元化"与"安全资产"的迫切需求，而黄金，正是这一历史 性需求的核心承接者。即便明年美联储的降息节奏可能放缓，但货币政策的短期波动，在黄金多年的上行趋势中，仅可视作"噪音"。 ◼ 支撑黄金的长期逻辑，根植于两大宏观动力： ◼ 第一，对冲主权债务与货币信用风险。 美国财政赤字扩张已成跨党派、跨周期的常态，经济衰退并非其唯一推手。展望2026年，为争取选 票，特朗普政府可能推出"降低关税"与"关税收入分红"等政策，均需财政额外支出。叠加《大美丽法案》在未来十年将新增3.4万亿美 元基础赤字，美国未来十年的财政赤字净增量或达6万亿美元。另外，若IEEPA关税被最高法 ...

近期行情回顾 2025年累计涨幅超60%，远超同期全球多数风险与固收资产 数据来源：Bloomberg, 紫金天风期货 （来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 3. 美联储的独立性受质疑 2018年至今，中美贸易摩擦、俄乌冲突等事件加速了国际格局的多极化，削弱了各国对单一货币储备体系的依赖；同时，金融制裁也侵蚀了以美欧 为主导的货币体系的信用。这两大趋势共同推升了全球对于"储备资产多元化"与"安全资产"的迫切需求，而黄金，正是这一历史性需求的核心承接 者。即便明年美联储的降息节奏可能放缓，但货币政策的短期波动，在黄金多年的上行趋势中，仅可视作"噪音"。 支撑黄金的长期逻辑，根植于两大宏观动力： 第一，对冲主权债务与货币信用风险。 美国财政赤字扩张已成跨党派、跨周期的常态，经济衰退并非其唯一推手。展望2026年，为争取选票，特朗 普政府可能推出"降低关税"与"关税收入分红"等政策，均需财政额外支出。叠加《大美丽法案》在未来十年将新增3.4万亿美元基础赤字，美国未来 十年的财政赤字净增量或达6万亿美元。另外，若IEEPA关税被最高法院判定非法，退还已征关税将造成上千亿美元的财政损失。简言之，财政纪 ...

12月18日，美国财政部公布的这组10月的美国财政部数据，引起了不少人的注意。 中国再次减持美债，金额达到118亿美元，持仓水平创下2008年以来最低，与此同时，加拿大出手更 猛，单月抛售567亿美元，刷新了过去几年的最大波动记录。 就在这两件事发生的前后，特朗普也在公开场合释放信号，要更换美联储主席，核心诉求是推动降息。 三件事实则互相关联，背后是一场关于资本流动、政策信心和地缘博弈的深层较量。 中国持续减持美债 中国这次减持118亿美元，并不是突发行为，从过去的趋势看，减持的节奏一直在持续，方向也很明 确。 持有美债的总量已经降低到了近十几年来的最低水平，与此同时，中国在其他储备资产上的配置也在悄 然发生变化，特别是在黄金储备的增加上，连续增持的节奏说明了这不是一次性操作，而是一种长期考 量下的调整。 这种调整背后，反映的是对外部环境变化的理性应对，美元作为全球主要储备货币，地位确实依旧稳 固，但它也不再具备十年前那种无可替代的安全感。 特别是在国际局势不确定性上升的背景下，依赖单一货币体系的风险逐渐显现，一旦出现高强度的金融 制裁、政策突变，或是汇率剧烈波动，对大型经济体的外储安全构成直接威胁。 因此， ...

尽管10月市场剧烈波动，但全球央行购金热情不减，为金价提供了坚实支撑，而新兴的"代币化黄金"尚未成为市场的主要驱动力。 根据追风交易台消息，高盛于12月12日发布的最新报告显示，其"即时预测"（nowcast）模型估算，全球央行在10月份净买入了49吨黄金。这一数 字远高于2022年之前17吨的月均水平，显示出官方部门强劲且持续的需求。 其中，其中卡塔尔10月购买20吨和中国购买15吨。高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven认为，央行在金价高波动时期依然坚挺的购买行为，表 明其决策并非高度价格敏感，而是出于对冲地缘政治和金融风险的长期战略考量。 基于这一强劲的官方需求，叠加对美联储未来政策转向宽松的预期，高盛维持其对金价的乐观预测，预计到2026年底金价将升至4900美元/盎司。 该行同时指出，私人投资者需求的增长将是金价的另一大潜在上行动力。 央行购金：对冲风险的"多年趋势" 高盛在报告中强调，其继续将央行大规模增持黄金视为一个"多年趋势"。报告数据显示，10月份49吨的净购买量，以及66吨的12个月移动平均购 买量，均显著高于2022年以前17吨的月度平均水平。 高盛分析师认为，这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold, with net purchases of 49 tons in October, significantly above the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tons, indicating a long-term strategy to hedge against geopolitical and financial risks [1][3][5] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the substantial increase in gold purchases by central banks is a long-term trend, driven by the need for reserve asset diversification to mitigate rising geopolitical and financial risks [5][6] - The report indicates that the average monthly purchase by central banks is expected to remain at 70 tons through 2026, providing solid fundamental support for the gold market [6] Private Investor Impact - Private investors are viewed as a key variable that could amplify gold prices, with a potential significant effect if their interest in gold increases [7] - Goldman Sachs' model suggests that a 1 basis point (0.01%) increase in gold holdings within U.S. private financial portfolios could lead to a price increase of approximately 1.4% [7] - Currently, gold ETFs represent only 0.17% of U.S. investors' portfolios, indicating substantial room for growth in private investment in gold [7][8] Tokenized Gold - The impact of "tokenized gold," such as Tether Gold, on the recent rise in gold prices is considered limited, with its demand significantly smaller compared to traditional channels like gold ETFs and central bank purchases [9] - Tokenized gold is viewed as a potential substitute for gold ETFs rather than a major new source of demand, although it remains a trend worth monitoring [9]

Core Insights - Despite significant market volatility in October, global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold, providing solid support for gold prices, while emerging "tokenized gold" has not yet become a major market driver [1] Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Goldman Sachs' latest report indicates that global central banks net bought 49 tons of gold in October, significantly higher than the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tons, reflecting robust and sustained demand from official sectors [1][2] - Notably, Qatar purchased 20 tons and China bought 15 tons in October, suggesting that central banks' purchasing behavior is driven by long-term strategic considerations to hedge geopolitical and financial risks rather than short-term price sensitivity [1][3] - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic forecast for gold prices, projecting they will rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by strong official demand and expectations of a shift to looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][5] Group 2: Private Investor Demand - The report highlights that the behavior of private investors will be a key variable influencing future gold prices, with potential significant "amplifying effects" if their interest in gold increases [4] - Goldman Sachs' model suggests that a 1 basis point (0.01%) increase in the share of gold in U.S. private financial portfolios could lead to a price increase of approximately 1.4%, indicating substantial growth potential as current holdings in gold ETFs are only 0.17% of these portfolios [4][5] Group 3: Tokenized Gold - Regarding the role of "tokenized gold" such as Tether Gold, Goldman Sachs notes that its impact on recent gold price increases appears limited, with a reported increase of about 26 tons in Tether Gold holdings compared to 197 tons in Western gold ETF inflows and 134 tons in central bank purchases during Q3 2025 [6] - The firm views tokenized gold as similar to gold ETFs, both backed by physical gold, but believes it is more likely to serve as a partial substitute for gold ETFs rather than a significant new source of demand, warranting ongoing market monitoring [6]

Core Insights - Despite significant market volatility in October, global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold, providing solid support for gold prices, while emerging "tokenized gold" has not yet become a major market driver [1][4]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Goldman Sachs reported that global central banks net purchased 49 tons of gold in October, significantly higher than the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tons, indicating robust and sustained demand from official sectors [1][4]. - Notably, Qatar purchased 20 tons and China bought 15 tons in October, reflecting a strategic move by central banks to diversify reserve assets and hedge against geopolitical and financial risks [1][4]. Future Gold Price Predictions - Based on strong official demand and expectations of a shift towards looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic forecast for gold prices, predicting they will rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1][5]. Private Investor Demand - Private investor behavior is seen as a key variable influencing future gold prices. An increase in the allocation of gold in U.S. private financial portfolios could significantly amplify gold prices [1][6]. - Currently, gold ETFs, the most common tool for U.S. investors, represent only 0.17% of their portfolios, indicating substantial room for growth as interest in gold is expected to rebound alongside potential Federal Reserve policy changes [1][6]. Tokenized Gold - Goldman Sachs notes that the impact of "tokenized gold," such as Tether Gold, on recent gold price increases appears limited. In Q3 2025, Tether Gold holdings increased by approximately 26 tons, while Western gold ETFs saw inflows of about 197 tons, and central bank purchases reached around 134 tons [1][7]. - Tokenized gold is fundamentally similar to gold ETFs, both backed by physical gold, but its ownership is recorded on a blockchain. While this may lower entry barriers for some investors, it does not necessarily add significant intrinsic value [1][8].

Core Insights - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion by the end of November 2025, marking a slight increase of $3 billion from the end of October, with a growth rate of 0.09% [1][3] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7,412 million ounces, adding 30,000 ounces in November, continuing a trend of 13 consecutive months of gold accumulation [1][5] Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, supported by stable economic performance and macroeconomic factors [3][4] - The increase in reserves is attributed to fluctuations in asset prices and cross-border capital flows, reflecting the resilience of China's international balance of payments [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the stable foreign exchange reserves provide crucial support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate and act as a buffer against external shocks [4] Gold Reserves - The continuous increase in gold reserves highlights a strategic shift towards diversifying reserve assets and reducing reliance on single sovereign credit currencies, particularly the US dollar [5][6] - The accumulation of gold is seen as a response to global geopolitical uncertainties and a strategy to enhance the long-term credibility of RMB assets [5][6] - The global trend of central banks purchasing gold continues, with a significant increase in demand noted in October, which may support rising international gold prices [7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the People's Bank of China will continue to increase its gold reserves as part of a broader strategy to optimize international reserves and support RMB internationalization [8] - Forecasts for gold prices suggest a target range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by expectations of monetary easing and shifts in global credit dynamics [8]