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地缘“完美风暴”酿危机红利 金价剑指4000
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-22 02:09
Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a bullish trend driven by global demand, geopolitical risks, and central bank strategies, with potential for prices to rise significantly by year-end [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold is currently trading around $3,690 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.13% [1]. - In India, gold premiums have reached a 10-month high, indicating strong demand despite record prices [2]. - In contrast, China's gold prices are at a five-year discount, highlighting a divergence in market demand [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical tensions in regions such as Ukraine, Poland, and the Middle East are providing strong support for the gold market [3]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions may further escalate, adding to market uncertainty and driving gold prices higher [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves as part of a de-dollarization strategy, contributing to a 43% surge in ETF holdings [2]. - This trend is expected to continue, reinforcing the bullish outlook for gold prices [2]. Group 4: Price Trends and Projections - Recent market movements show a reversal pattern, with gold prices recovering after a dip influenced by interest rate announcements [4]. - The price has risen approximately 200 points since breaking the $3,500 level, with a key resistance level around $3,705 [4]. - If uncertainties persist, gold prices could potentially reach $3,960 or even surpass $4,000 by year-end [3].
国际金价突破3690美元关口,半月涨幅超5%
推动金价持续上涨的直接因素,包括市场对美联储即将降息的普遍预期,持续的地缘政治紧张局势,投 资者对美联储独立性的担忧,吸引大量资金涌入黄金这一传统避险资产。同时,新兴市场央行积极推动 储备资产多元化,全球各国央行的购金需求持续增长,自2022年以来全球央行购金速度增长近5倍。 自8月29日以来,国际金价开启上行走势,持续攀升,突破持续数的3200至3450美元的盘整区间,接连 刷新3500美元、3600美元历史记录,并连续多日维持在历史高位。今年以来,黄金价格已累计上涨约 40%,超过2024年27%的强劲涨幅。 受国际金价上行影响,国内首饰金价也大幅上涨,16日,主流黄金品牌金饰价格已突破1080元。各品牌 官网信息显示,周生生足金饰品价格为1091元/克,周大福、六福珠宝足金饰品价格为1087元/克,老凤 祥足金饰品价格为1086元/克,均较半月前上涨50元。 多位行业分析师提醒,在经历创纪录的飙升之后,黄金目前处于超买区间,强劲涨势短期内面临回调风 险。不过从长期来看,黄金的牛市根基依然稳固。 已连续多日保持历史高位的国际金价再次大幅飙升。9月16日,伦敦现货黄金价格突破3690美元/盎司关 口,截至发 ...
中国央行连续第10个月增持黄金以推动储备资产多元化
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-07 08:37
Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 10th consecutive month, continuing its strategy to diversify its dollar-dominated reserve assets [1] - In August, China's gold reserves rose by 60,000 troy ounces to 74.02 million troy ounces, with a total increase of 1.22 million troy ounces since November of the previous year [1] - Gold prices have recently reached new highs, breaking a months-long stability, driven by bets on U.S. interest rate cuts and criticism of the Federal Reserve from the White House [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 30%, exceeding $3,500 per ounce, with Goldman Sachs suggesting that any damage to the Federal Reserve's independence could push gold prices close to $5,000 [1] - Globally, while the pace of gold accumulation by central banks has slowed, geopolitical risks are expected to continue supporting official sector demand according to a recent report by the World Gold Council [1]
央行连续六个月增持黄金,仲量联行:未来还有继续增持空间
news flash· 2025-05-07 14:25
金十数据5月7日讯,央行连续六个月增持黄金。仲量联行大中华区首席经济学家兼研究部总监庞溟告诉 记者,目前黄金储备在中国储备资产中的占比仍然较低,黄金储备总量与中国经济体量和外汇储备总量 仍不匹配,再考虑到金融安全、储备资产多元化等方面的需求,未来还有继续增持黄金的空间。 (21 财经) 央行连续六个月增持黄金,仲量联行:未来还有继续增持空间 ...
高盛:美元跌落、亚洲货币崛起,人民币和新加坡元将最受青睐
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-30 11:26
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that as central banks seek to diversify their reserve assets and reduce reliance on the US dollar, the Korean won, Singapore dollar, and Chinese yuan are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries in Asia [1] - The report highlights that despite the US dollar and euro remaining primary reserve assets, central banks are expected to increase their allocation to Asian currencies [1] - The Korean won is expected to gain traction as South Korea is likely to be included in the FTSE World Government Bond Index (WGBI) next year, leading to increased global central bank holdings of Korean bonds and thus more demand for the won [1] - The Singapore dollar is favored due to Singapore's AAA rating, stable financial markets, and transparent trading environment, making it attractive for central bank investments [1] - The Chinese yuan benefits from China's position as one of the largest trading nations, providing it with a natural liquidity advantage and making it a "logical candidate" for increased use [1] Group 2 - The trend of "de-dollarization" began in 2022 following the US freezing of Russian dollar reserves amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising concerns among global central banks about the safety of holding US dollars [2] - Uncertainties surrounding potential Trump re-election and fluctuating US fiscal and trade policies have eroded foreign confidence in US assets, contributing to a shift in market sentiment [2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has declined over 7% since its peak in February, while gold purchases have reached record highs, indicating a movement towards diversifying reserve currencies [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the US dollar is overvalued by approximately 17%, predicting a rotation of global assets towards alternatives, including Asian assets [2]
【招银研究|资本市场专题】从央行购金和投资需求看全球黄金需求变化
招商银行研究· 2025-03-25 09:23
Core Viewpoint - The global demand for gold is projected to reach a record high of 4,974 tons in 2024, driven primarily by central bank purchases and investment demand, despite a slight decrease in central bank purchases compared to previous years [2][5]. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases - Since 2022, central bank gold purchases have significantly increased, primarily led by emerging market central banks, with purchases doubling from around 500 tons to over 1,000 tons, contributing to a rise in gold prices [4][5]. - The increase in gold purchases is not uniform across all central banks; emerging markets like Poland, Turkey, China, Egypt, and India have been the main buyers, while some developed countries have sold gold [7]. - In 2024, central bank purchases are expected to slightly decrease but remain above 1,000 tons, influenced by various factors including market conditions and gold prices [8][16]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Gold investment demand is negatively correlated with U.S. real interest rates; lower real rates typically lead to higher investment in gold [9][10]. - After a peak in 2020, gold investment demand fell significantly due to rising real interest rates, but is expected to see a slight rebound in 2024 as the Federal Reserve signals a shift towards lower rates [13][18]. - Investment demand varies by region, with Asian markets showing net inflows into gold ETFs, while European and North American markets have experienced outflows [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Central bank purchases may slow down in the short term but are expected to remain in a long-term net buying cycle, influenced by geopolitical risks and market conditions [16][17]. - Investment demand is unlikely to see a significant rebound due to potential inflationary pressures from U.S. policies and high gold prices, which may suppress demand [18][19]. - Overall, while gold demand may not exceed 2024 levels, it is expected to remain high, with prices experiencing volatility but maintaining a long-term bullish trend [20][21].