Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to its considerable commercialization momentum and steady progress in its pipeline [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 950 million for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 31.3%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 145 million [7]. - The company has made significant strides in commercialization, having obtained marketing approvals for several products and initiated their commercialization processes [7]. - The existing product indications are being expanded, and the potential pipeline is actively advancing, providing ample space for future growth [7]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of RMB 20.30 billion, RMB 32.77 billion, and RMB 53.63 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 1,540.49 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 91.6%. For 2024, revenue is expected to be RMB 1,933.05 million, reflecting a growth rate of 25.5% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be a loss of RMB 560.39 million in 2025, with a significant recovery expected in 2027, reaching a profit of RMB 876.84 million [6]. - The company's cash and financial assets totaled RMB 4.528 billion as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 47.2% compared to the end of 2024 [7].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market's innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen a significant rebound this year, with net inflows of over 120 billion yuan into the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, driving funds towards more certain quality targets [1] - Kelun-Biotech (06990) has emerged as a key target for market investment, achieving a historical high in stock price and a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion HKD, with a year-to-date increase of 192.40%, entering the "100 billion club" of Hong Kong's innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3] Revenue Structure Transformation - Kelun-Biotech is transitioning from a biotech to a biopharma company, with its revenue structure evolving to be driven by both business development (BD) collaborations and self-commercialization [3][4] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 950 million yuan, with cash reserves of 4.528 billion yuan, indicating a robust cash flow [4] - The sales revenue from its core product, Jiatailai® (TROP2 ADC), has shown strong market acceptance, contributing significantly to the company's revenue growth [5][6] Commercialization Strategy - The company has established a dual approach to commercialization, focusing on both licensing collaborations and self-sustaining revenue generation [4][5] - Kelun-Biotech has formed a professional marketing team of 350 people, achieving extensive coverage across 30 provinces and over 2,000 hospitals in China [7] - The company is actively pursuing national medical insurance access for its products, which could significantly enhance sales through payment leverage [7] R&D and Innovation - Kelun-Biotech has increased its R&D investment, reaching 612 million yuan in the first half of 2025, supporting its competitive edge in key therapeutic areas [8][9] - The company has developed three major technology platforms, enabling a pipeline of over 30 candidate drugs, with more than 10 in clinical stages [8] - International recognition of its R&D capabilities is reflected in its collaborations with various global partners, enhancing its innovation and market reach [9] Summary of Growth Path - Kelun-Biotech's mid-term performance illustrates a clear growth trajectory, with Jiatailai® providing cash flow and three technology platforms ensuring ongoing innovation [9] - The company's dual-driven model of BD collaboration and self-commercialization aligns with the core logic of pharmaceutical investment in Hong Kong, indicating its long-term potential for growth [9]