证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20260328 技术帖：美国通胀指标 PCE 与 CPI 的走势 差异 2026 年 03 月 28 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王茁 执业证书：S0600526010001 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《油价上涨对我国出口影响几何》 2026-03-26 《上海商品房销售量价齐升》 2026-03-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：从历史上看，美国 PCE 同比增速在大部时间都低于 CPI，但 近 3 个月 PCE-CPI 同比开始由负转正且不断走阔。从原因上看，两者核 心通胀的走势差异正在主导 PCE-CPI 的轧差：PCE 中权重更高的计算 机组件分项大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the global economy and trade landscape, raising concerns about ensuring equitable benefits for all countries [3][4]. Group 1: AI's Impact on Global Trade - AI is predicted to drive global service trade growth by nearly 40% and global GDP growth by 12% to 13% by 2040 [3][10]. - In the first half of 2025, AI-related goods trade showed strong growth, with a trade growth rate of 16.5% in Q1 and 21.7% in Q2, compared to only 3.7% and 4.2% for non-AI goods [4][5]. - AI-related goods trade totaled $2.9 trillion in 2022, slightly decreasing to $2.3 trillion in 2023, with significant growth driven by intermediate goods like computer components [4][5]. Group 2: Regional Contributions to AI Trade - North America saw a 36% increase in semiconductor imports, while Asia accounted for nearly two-thirds of the total growth in AI-related trade in the first half of 2025 [5][9]. - Emerging manufacturing hubs like Malaysia, Mexico, Vietnam, and Thailand have increased their exports of AI-related intermediate goods and equipment [4][5]. Group 3: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Gains - AI is expected to reduce trade costs significantly by optimizing supply chains, automating customs clearance, and lowering language barriers [9][10]. - A joint survey by WTO and ICC revealed that 70% of businesses anticipate AI will reduce trade costs, with nearly 90% of AI-using companies reporting tangible benefits in trade activities [9][10]. Group 4: Challenges and Digital Divide - The report highlights the increasing non-tariff measures, such as export restrictions and technical barriers, which are rising annually, with nearly 500 quantity restrictions expected for AI-related goods in 2024 [14][15]. - There is a significant digital divide, with low-income economies lagging in internet access and AI application, as over 2.6 billion people remain unconnected globally [14][15]. Group 5: International Cooperation for Bridging Gaps - WTO emphasizes the need for international cooperation to bridge the digital divide, proposing to expand the Information Technology Agreement and reduce tariffs on key AI materials [15].