智通财经记者 | 杨志锦 近日出版的《〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉辅导读本》中刊登了中国人民银行行长潘功胜题为《构建科学稳健的货币 政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系》的署名文章。 对于如何构建科学稳健的货币政策体系，潘功胜在文中指出，不断增强央行政策利率的作用，收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，进一步畅通由央行政策利率向市场 基准利率，再到各种金融市场利率的传导。 其中收窄利率走廊的提法引起市场关注。此前中国的利率走廊上限、下限分别为7天SLF（常备借贷便利）利率、超额准备金利率，二者之差也被称为利率 走廊的宽度，市场基准利率在上下限之间围绕政策利率（7天逆回购利率）波动。 智通财经记者采访了解到，前述利率走廊宽度较宽，实践中个别时段市场基准利率大幅低于政策利率，弱化了政策利率的引导作用，而收窄利率走廊有助于 解决这一问题，同时为货币政策框架由数量型向价格型转变奠定基础。不过调整原利率走廊上下限也会面临新的问题，因此收窄利率走廊或是构建新走廊。 具体看，新走廊上限为临时隔夜逆回购操作利率、下限为临时隔夜正回购操作利率，其宽度仅70bp，相比原利率走廊收窄135bp。与之相对应的，市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Despite the recent Fed rate cut, the US dollar liquidity has tightened instead of loosening, leading to price fluctuations in various assets and significant declines in risk assets [1][2] - The current tightening of US dollar liquidity is mainly caused by the depletion of ONRRP and the accumulation of funds in the TGA account due to the US government shutdown [3] - Whether this liquidity crunch will persist depends on when the US government shutdown ends and the Fed's subsequent operations. If the two parties reach an agreement and the government re - opens, or the Fed injects liquidity, the market may return to normal [4] Summary by Related Content Liquidity Tightening Indicators - **Volume Indicators**: At the end of October, the New York Fed's repurchase volume approached $50 billion, and in early November, the daily average repurchase volume remained at a high level of nearly $15 billion, indicating a normal and continuous liquidity crunch [1][7] - **Price Indicators**: On October 31, the US secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) climbed to 4.22%. Although it dropped to 4.13% on November 4, it was still much higher than the Fed's 3.9% excess reserve rate, with a spread of 23bp, the highest since July 29, 2021 [1][10] Impact on Asset Prices - **US Dollar**: The US dollar index rose from 99.15 on October 29 to 100.21 on November 4 [2][14] - **US Stocks**: The S&P 500 index fell from 6891 points on October 29 to 6772 points on November 4, a cumulative decline of 1.7% [2][14] Causes of Liquidity Tightening - **ONRRP Depletion**: ONRRP has dropped to a historical low, with an average daily volume of $11.8 billion since October. As the "US dollar reservoir", its exhaustion means that each financing of the fiscal TGA account consumes bank reserves, intensifying the liquidity crunch [3][16] - **US Government Shutdown**: During the shutdown, the TGA account balance increased from $758 billion before the shutdown in September to nearly $1 trillion in October, the highest since May 2021, exacerbating the "pumping effect" on the financial market [3][16] Historical Cases of TGA Account Balance Increase - **2020**: Due to the public health event, the TGA account balance increased from $0.38 trillion at the end of March to $1.79 trillion at the end of July, leading to a liquidity crunch. But the market liquidity expanded with the Fed's injection, and the stock market recovered after an initial slump [3][19] - **2022**: After the US Congress approved raising the debt ceiling at the end of 2021, the increase in Treasury bond issuance in 2022 led to a decline in US stocks from the end of March and a strengthening of the US dollar, but the impact only lasted until May [3][19] - **2023**: After the suspension of the debt ceiling in mid - 2023, the Treasury's large - scale bond issuance to rebuild the TGA cash buffer led to a decline in US stocks and a strengthening of the US dollar. The impact weakened after the TGA account balance started to decline in October [3][19] Future Outlook - The persistence of the current liquidity crunch depends on the end of the US government shutdown and the Fed's subsequent operations. If the government re - opens or the Fed injects liquidity, the market may return to the previous trend [4][23]