Group 1 - Significant short-term downside risk indicated by technical breakdown signals, with key moving averages breached [1][5] - Short-term support levels are dynamically shifting downwards from $3250 to $3200 and then to $3150 [2] - A breach of $3150 could trigger accelerated programmatic selling towards $3000 [3] Group 2 - Direct bearish factors include a retreat in safe-haven demand due to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading funds to shift from gold to risk assets like US stocks [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy is suppressing gold prices, with a maintained interest rate and a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in July [5][6] - Tightening dollar liquidity and rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [6] Group 3 - Long-term core support at $3000 remains intact, with 43% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings in the next year [7] - Structural inflation pressures from tariffs are pushing up import prices, with the US core PCE rising to 2.7%, supporting gold's anti-inflation attributes [7] - Concerns over a debt crisis as US debt interest payments approach $1 trillion, maintaining expectations for long-term monetary easing [7] Group 4 - Divergent institutional views on gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to $2500-$2700 by 2026, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a rise to $3700 by the end of 2025 [8] - JPMorgan sees a potential pullback to $3100-$3200 as a buying opportunity, with a long-term target of $4000 by 2026 [8] Group 5 - Future scenarios include a pessimistic outlook (40% probability) where gold could drop to $3000-$3100 if the Fed delays rate cuts and geopolitical tensions remain stable [9] - An optimistic scenario (30% probability) suggests gold could rebound to $3300-$3400 if rate cuts begin in September and inflation rises [9] Group 6 - The probability of breaking below $3000 in the short term is low, with current prices at $3250, indicating a 7.7% distance to $3000 [11] - Increased risk for 2026 if global economic recovery is strong, potentially leading to Citigroup's forecast of $2500-$2700 being realized [12] Group 7 - Short-term traders should monitor the support range of $3200-$3280 and avoid counter-trend buying if prices fall below $3300, paying close attention to July CPI data and Fed officials' comments [13] - Long-term investors are advised to gradually accumulate gold ETFs below $3000, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% [14] Group 8 - Consumer demand for gold jewelry can be capitalized on during promotional events, with a focus on low-cost options like bank gold bars [16] - The ongoing conflict between central bank accumulation (long-term support) and Federal Reserve policies/retail investor retreat (short-term pressure) will continue to shape market dynamics [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and the possible delay of interest rate cuts have suppressed gold prices in the short - term, but long - term supporting factors remain [3]. - **Copper**: In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton. Considering the possible weakening of demand, the upside pressure is large and the downside support is relatively weak [13]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory is the short - term core factor supporting prices, with short - term high - level fluctuations and a long - term bearish outlook. Alumina is in low - level operation, and cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [30][31][32]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and market sentiment should be focused on, along with inventory data [59]. - **Nickel**: The overall nickel industry is affected by the situation in the Middle - East and the US macro - level. Nickel ore may remain tight, the contradiction in the nickel - iron link is difficult to resolve, and the supply - demand situation of stainless steel may improve if the production cut continues. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the short - term. The continuous decline in inventory and the under - recovery of upstream tin mines provide support, while weak downstream demand creates pressure [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The supply of the silicon industry chain is strong, while the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The cease - fire in the Middle - East has weakened the safe - haven demand, and the possible delay of interest rate cuts has tightened the US dollar liquidity, suppressing gold prices [3]. - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in the report [4]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton, with greater upside pressure and weaker downside support [13]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [14]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and spot premiums are given [19]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are presented [23]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME copper inventories are provided [27][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and low inventory supports short - term prices. The inventory increase on June 23 may or may not be the inflection point [30]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea may remain shut down in the short - term, and alumina is in low - level operation due to the game between production resumption and maintenance [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but the demand growth may slow down. The futures contract is in a BACK structure, and the price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [32]. - **Price and Spread Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina futures, as well as various price spreads, are provided [35][38]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina spot prices, as well as various basis and price spreads, are given [43]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are provided [51]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and inventory data should be focused on [59]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and LME zinc futures are provided [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices and spot premiums are given [65]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME zinc inventories are provided [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The overall industry is affected by the Middle - East situation and US macro - factors. Nickel ore may be tight, the nickel - iron link has contradictions, and the stainless - steel supply - demand situation may improve with production cuts. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures are provided [73][75]. - **Inventory and Related Data**: Data on nickel spot prices, warehouse receipts, nickel ore prices, and inventory are presented [79][81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices may remain stable in the short - term, with support from inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weak downstream demand [88]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [89]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME tin inventories are provided [97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are provided [104][108]. - **Inventory Data**: Data on Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and various lithium carbonate inventories are presented [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures prices are provided [115][116]. - **Related Product Prices**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other silicon - related products are presented [124][126]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: Data on industrial silicon production, inventory, and industry average costs are provided [131][137][140].