据最新市场数据，过去30天内，机构投资者持有的比特币储备增持了价值超过5亿美元的比特币。然而，2025年11月18日早间，比特币价格跌至90700美元， 这一下跌揭示了供给与需求之间的多空博弈。 1. 机构增持：慢变量与长期信号 方式与目的： 机构的买入通常通过交易所交易基金（ETF）、大宗交易或算法定投完成，这是一个持续、分散的过程，不会在瞬间将价格暴力拉高。机构的投资视角通常 是中长期的，他们更看重比特币的长期价值存储（数字黄金）属性，而非短期波动。当前的下跌对他们而言可能被视为"打折买入"的机会。 美联储政策：若市场预期美联储将维持高利率更长时间，或缩减资产负债表，会导致全球美元流动性收紧，抽离所有风险资产（包括股票和加密货 币）市场的资金。 美元走强：强势美元通常会给以美元计价的加密货币带来压力。 经济衰退担忧：避险情绪上升，投资者会抛售高风险资产，转向现金或国债。 Mt. Gox赔付启动：近期，已破产的交易所Mt. Gox开始向其债权人偿还超过140亿美元的比特币和比特币现金。这些债权人持有比特币近10年，许多可 能选择立即卖出获利了结，形成巨大的潜在供应冲击，对市场构成心理和实际压力。 德国政府抛 ...

记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨江佩霞 当地时间11月18日，美股三大指数集体下跌，道指下跌超500点，跌幅约1.2%。 截至18日收盘，标普500指数11月至今下跌超2%，该指数此前已连续6个月上涨；标普500指数较历史高点回落超3%，科技权重更高的纳指较 纪录高点回落超5%。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 标普500 | | --- | --- | | 46590.24 | 22708.07 6672.41 | | -557.24 -1.18% -192.52 -0.84% -61.70 -0.92% | | | 中国金龙 | 纳指100期货 标普500期货 | | 7760.02 24905.50 6697.25 | | | -95.20 -1.21% -188.50 -0.75% -58.00 -0.86% | | 大型科技股多数下跌 ，美光科技跌近2%，英伟达、苹果跌超1.8%， Meta跌1.2%，特斯拉涨1.1%。 谷歌成为为数不多的亮点，该股开盘一度涨6%，创下历史新高，收盘时涨幅收窄为略超3%。据财联社报道，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔·哈撒韦三季 度建仓该股。 热门中概股多数下跌， 纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.21% ...

当地时间11月17日，美股低开高走，三大指数悉数转涨。截至23:16，道指涨0.01%，标普500指数涨0.01%，纳指涨0.07%。 | 美股指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 47151.62 | 22917.71 | 6734.96 | | +4.14 +0.01% +17.12 +0.07% | | +0.85 +0.01% | | 中国金龙 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7852.00 | 25184.25 | 6765.00 | | -3.22 -0.04% +90.25 +0.36% +9.75 +0.14% | | | | 总爆仓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1小时爆仓 | $2.39亿 | 4小时爆仓 | $3.01亿 | | 多車 | $3117.20万 | 念東 | $8354.75万 | | 空車 | $2.08亿 | 空車 | $2.18亿 | | 12小时爆仓 | $3.31亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $7.86亿 | | 多車 | $9639.77万 ...

记者丨 吴斌 见习记者张嘉钰 编辑丨吴桂兴 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.04%。部分热门中概股走强，阿里巴巴涨3.6%、万国 数据涨3.3%、京东涨2.4%。 阿特斯太阳能跌超13%、小鹏汽车跌逾5%。 贵金属方面，金价继续调整，现货黄金跌0.43%，报4062.56美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货跌 0.49%报4074.2美元/盎司。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 4064.560 | -17.599 | -0.43% | | 伦敦银现 | 50.682 | 0.165 | 0.33% | | COMEX黄金 | 4074.2d | -20.0 | -0.49% | | COMEX白银 | 50.625 d | -0.061 | -0.12% | 加密货币方面，多数加密货币持续下挫，比特币跌1.32%，索尔币、以太币跌近2%。据 CoinGlass数据显示，过去24小时内，加密货币共有超16万人爆仓。 | 4小时爆仓 | 1小时爆仓 | $2.39亿 | $3.01亿 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The commodity market fluctuated upward last week, with an overall increase of 0.87%. Precious metals led the gains at 5.07%, while black and energy - chemical sectors declined by 0.4% and 0.65% respectively [2][6]. - With the marginal tightening of US dollar liquidity, the commodity market may face short - term pressure. The end of the US government shutdown is beneficial to market risk appetite, but Fed officials' hawkish statements have cooled the expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [2]. Summary by Category Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.87% last week. Precious metals led the gains at 5.07%, followed by non - ferrous metals and agricultural products at 0.77% and 0.67% respectively. Black and energy - chemical sectors fell by 0.4% and 0.65% [2][6]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, apples, and rapeseed oil were the top gainers, with increases of 7.55%, 5.86%, and 4.09% respectively. Coking coal, eggs, and glass were the top losers, dropping 6.14%, 5.78%, and 5.41% [6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to decline, with significant decreases in precious metals, chemicals, and soft commodities [2][6]. - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased, mainly driven by precious metals. Only the black sector had net capital outflows [2][6]. Outlook for Each Sector - **Precious Metals**: The market initially expected economic data during the US government shutdown to confirm economic weakness and increase the probability of a rate cut, but Fed officials' hawkish remarks suppressed rate - cut expectations. The sector may oscillate at high levels [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Domestic fixed - asset investment and social financing were below expectations, and the expectation of a December rate cut by the Fed cooled. With a slight inventory build - up and a tight long - term supply - demand outlook, the sector may face short - term pressure [2]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production decreased, and inventory continued to fall. Iron ore production rebounded last week but still has room to cut. Steel mills' profit margins are average, and they are eager to lower raw material prices. The sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: OPEC's November report raised non - OPEC+ supply growth and maintained demand growth, shifting the balance from a shortage to equilibrium. The IEA also increased its surplus forecast, and EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 641.3 million barrels. Although geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may support oil prices, the market may face short - term pressure [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester products, the strong overseas gasoline crack spread and tight US aromatic supply boosted the Asian aromatic market, but chemical demand is expected to weaken. For construction products, the cancellation of India's BIS certification for PVC had limited impact. The sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA's November report showed a decrease in the US new - crop soybean's yield, production, exports, and ending stocks. However, since the market had already priced in the positive news, soybean prices fell after the report. Soybean meal may follow the decline, and the edible oil and oilseed sector may oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive weekly returns, with an average increase of around 3.26% - 3.45%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 2,231.72 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase [34]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a - 0.58% return, the soybean meal ETF had a 0.99% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had an 8.94% return [34]. - **Overall Commodity ETFs**: The total scale of commodity ETFs was 2,343.35 billion yuan, with a 2.52% increase. Trading volume also increased significantly by 93.95% [34].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed overall stability with major indices mostly rising, while structural differentiation continued to manifest, with growth sectors performing flat and value styles standing out [1] - The power equipment industry continued to lead, while cyclical industries such as steel, chemicals, building materials, environmental protection, and public utilities saw consecutive gains over two weeks [1] - Sectors like computers, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, and non-bank financials experienced significant declines, with computers, pharmaceuticals, non-banking, and automobiles shifting from gains to losses week-on-week [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - Domestic demand is recovering, with price expectations gradually stabilizing; October exports showed a year-on-year decline of 1.1% and a month-on-month decline of 7.0%, influenced by high base effects and seasonal factors [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year in October, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise of the year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1% [2] Group 3: Global Market Sentiment - Global stock markets faced pullbacks due to heightened risk aversion stemming from concerns over AI bubbles, government shutdowns, and uncertainties from court rulings, leading to significant declines in U.S. stocks and fluctuations in bond yields [3] - Expectations for a potential end to the government shutdown in November and improvements in economic data and dollar liquidity are anticipated [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - New emerging technologies are seen as a key investment theme, with traditional asset returns expected to decline; the "New National Nine Articles" reform is expected to enhance market investability and attract long-term capital [4] - Economic structural transformation is accelerating, with new technologies and industries emerging, suggesting a potential recovery in economic expectations and asset returns [4] - Upcoming events such as the World Internet Conference and G20 Summit are highlighted as important for market outlook [4] Group 5: Investment Focus - Investment focus includes emerging technologies, with attention on sectors like internet, robotics, semiconductors, media, computers, and communications [5] - Global expansion of Chinese enterprises is seen as a pathway to market opportunities and shareholder returns, with sectors like power equipment, consumer electronics, machinery, and innovative pharmaceuticals being of interest [5] - Cyclical consumption is viewed as transitioning, with potential opportunities in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and building materials, particularly in service and instant consumption sectors [5]

Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached a historical high of 40 days, surpassing the previous record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019[2] - The shutdown is expected to last approximately 50 days, with a projected end date of November 20, 2025[2] - The prolonged shutdown has begun to negatively impact the economy, particularly through delayed payments of government salaries, which constitute 10% of household income[2] Economic Indicators - 60% of U.S. residents' income comes from salaries, while 80% of their expenditures are on consumption, indicating a potential decline in consumer spending due to unpaid government salaries[2] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has increased from $850 billion to $1 trillion, reflecting tight fiscal conditions and liquidity constraints in the market[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.91 basis points to 4.096%, while the 2-year yield fell by 1.20 basis points to 3.562% during the week of November 3 to November 7[3] Market Reactions - Concerns over AI market bubbles and the government shutdown have heightened risk aversion, leading to significant declines in U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping by 1.63% and 3.04%, respectively[3] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2% to 99.6, indicating a weakening dollar amidst the economic uncertainty[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider further interest rate cuts in December, influenced by the economic data from November, which may still reflect deterioration due to the shutdown[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a GDP growth of +4% for Q3 2025, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates a growth of +2.31% for the same period[3] Legal and Trade Implications - The U.S. Supreme Court is likely to rule against the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), prompting former President Trump to seek alternative tariff strategies[4] - The anticipated ruling could lead to a swift transition to alternative tariff measures, impacting trade policies and economic relations[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Despite the recent Fed rate cut, the US dollar liquidity has tightened instead of loosening, leading to price fluctuations in various assets and significant declines in risk assets [1][2] - The current tightening of US dollar liquidity is mainly caused by the depletion of ONRRP and the accumulation of funds in the TGA account due to the US government shutdown [3] - Whether this liquidity crunch will persist depends on when the US government shutdown ends and the Fed's subsequent operations. If the two parties reach an agreement and the government re - opens, or the Fed injects liquidity, the market may return to normal [4] Summary by Related Content Liquidity Tightening Indicators - **Volume Indicators**: At the end of October, the New York Fed's repurchase volume approached $50 billion, and in early November, the daily average repurchase volume remained at a high level of nearly $15 billion, indicating a normal and continuous liquidity crunch [1][7] - **Price Indicators**: On October 31, the US secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) climbed to 4.22%. Although it dropped to 4.13% on November 4, it was still much higher than the Fed's 3.9% excess reserve rate, with a spread of 23bp, the highest since July 29, 2021 [1][10] Impact on Asset Prices - **US Dollar**: The US dollar index rose from 99.15 on October 29 to 100.21 on November 4 [2][14] - **US Stocks**: The S&P 500 index fell from 6891 points on October 29 to 6772 points on November 4, a cumulative decline of 1.7% [2][14] Causes of Liquidity Tightening - **ONRRP Depletion**: ONRRP has dropped to a historical low, with an average daily volume of $11.8 billion since October. As the "US dollar reservoir", its exhaustion means that each financing of the fiscal TGA account consumes bank reserves, intensifying the liquidity crunch [3][16] - **US Government Shutdown**: During the shutdown, the TGA account balance increased from $758 billion before the shutdown in September to nearly $1 trillion in October, the highest since May 2021, exacerbating the "pumping effect" on the financial market [3][16] Historical Cases of TGA Account Balance Increase - **2020**: Due to the public health event, the TGA account balance increased from $0.38 trillion at the end of March to $1.79 trillion at the end of July, leading to a liquidity crunch. But the market liquidity expanded with the Fed's injection, and the stock market recovered after an initial slump [3][19] - **2022**: After the US Congress approved raising the debt ceiling at the end of 2021, the increase in Treasury bond issuance in 2022 led to a decline in US stocks from the end of March and a strengthening of the US dollar, but the impact only lasted until May [3][19] - **2023**: After the suspension of the debt ceiling in mid - 2023, the Treasury's large - scale bond issuance to rebuild the TGA cash buffer led to a decline in US stocks and a strengthening of the US dollar. The impact weakened after the TGA account balance started to decline in October [3][19] Future Outlook - The persistence of the current liquidity crunch depends on the end of the US government shutdown and the Fed's subsequent operations. If the government re - opens or the Fed injects liquidity, the market may return to the previous trend [4][23]

Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the US dollar index has reached the key level of 100, impacting global markets significantly [1][6] - Global markets, including A-shares, are experiencing adjustments, indicating a broader market trend [2][7] - The US financial market's short-term interest rates are rising despite the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, suggesting tightening liquidity in the market [4][6] Group 2 - The current strong dollar is partly due to the depreciation of the Japanese yen and hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials [6][7] - The US government shutdown has led to a situation where tax revenues are collected but not disbursed, contributing to liquidity issues [7] - Recent PMI data from the US indicates a contraction at 48.7, which is below market expectations, raising concerns about potential recession [7][8] Group 3 - A-shares are reflecting the performance of US stocks, particularly in sectors like electricity and photovoltaic power, which may face challenges due to external market conditions [7][8] - The trading volume in the A-share market has decreased significantly, falling below 2 trillion, indicating reduced market activity [7] - The market's response to external pressures suggests a cautious approach, with a focus on potential future developments [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that economic downturn and tightening dollar liquidity in the short and medium term may drive down U.S. stocks while increasing the risk of asset performance divergence [1] - The recent rise in U.S. stocks is attributed to the "Trump put" and "Fed put," where market participants expect policy easing in response to economic pressures [2][3] - The strong corporate earnings growth has been a significant foundation for the recent rise in U.S. stocks, with S&P 500 companies' profits growing approximately 12% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [4] Group 2 - U.S. stocks face significant pressure from three main factors: increasing economic downturn risks, high valuation pressures, and concentrated earnings among a few sectors [5][11] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August 2025 and non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, far below expectations [5][10] - The S&P 500 index's expected P/E ratio is around 22.5, significantly above the historical average of 16.8 since 2000, indicating high valuation concerns [5][11] Group 3 - The relationship between dollar liquidity and U.S. stocks is expected to revert to historical narratives, with tightening liquidity potentially leading to declines in stock prices [12][18] - The current market optimism is based on conflicting expectations of stable corporate earnings and Fed liquidity easing, which cannot coexist [18] - The tightening of dollar liquidity is likely to increase the risk of divergence in asset performance, particularly affecting assets that previously benefited from liquidity [18]