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纸浆周报:震荡下行,关注主力合约移仓换月-20250615
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 01:59
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly paper pulp report from Guoxin Futures, covering the week up to June 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main contract of pulp futures shifted positions. The SP2509 contract showed a weak performance, with a weekly decline of 0.72% [6] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Prices - As of June 12, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,989 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week and changing from a decline to stability; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,161 yuan/ton, rising 0.07% from the previous week and changing from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,272 yuan/ton, falling 0.75% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.17 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,818 yuan/ton, falling 0.52% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.42 percentage points [11] April Pulp Imports - In April 2025, China imported 2.893 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.8252 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 630.90 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to April increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared to the same period last year. In April, the import volume of softwood pulp was 757,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.57%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 1.1993 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.41% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.70% [15] Port Inventory - As of June 12, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.1771 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.07% and changing from a decline to an increase [18][34] European Inventory in April - In April 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 12.81% month-on-month but increased by 13.61% compared to April 2024. In April, the inventory in the ports of the UK and Germany increased by 38.60% and 15.72% month-on-month respectively, while the inventory in the ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Italy, and Spain decreased by 18.88%, 20.57%, and 2.67% month-on-month respectively. Overall, the inventory in most European ports decreased month-on-month, leading to a month-on-month decline in the total European port inventory in April [21] Consumption - Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. In terms of wood pulp, the regular maintenance of domestic hardwood pulp industry sample enterprises ended this week, driving the industry's operating load rate to rebound by 2 percentage points compared to the previous week; the production schedule of chemimechanical pulp industry sample enterprises was stable, and the overall industry's operating load rate remained the same as the previous week. In terms of non-wood pulp, a few sample bamboo pulp enterprises stopped for maintenance, and the operating load rate decreased by 3 percentage points compared to the previous week; the previously maintained equipment of sugarcane pulp resumed production, and some enterprises flexibly switched to bagasse pulp production, with the operating load rate increasing by 7 percentage points compared to the previous week [27] Group 4: Future Outlook - As of June 12, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports increased by 2.07% month-on-month and changed from a decline to an increase. Regarding the external quotation, after Chile's Arauco Company announced the external quotation for wood pulp in June, the June quotation of CMPC's hardwood pulp "Little Bird" remained unchanged; other pulp mills have not yet announced a new round of external prices. Imported wood pulp traders lowered the spot prices of some grades in some regions, and downstream paper mills showed insufficient enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The sales rhythm of the pulp market was slow, and the dynamic game continued. The operation suggestion is to wait and see for now [34]
纸浆周报:偏弱震荡,关注主力合约移仓换月-20250606
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 09:29
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp futures market is in a weak and volatile state. The pulp market continues the dynamic game, with low price operation and weak price - rising momentum. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures shifted positions. The SP2509 contract was weakly operated, with a weekly decline of 1.32% [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of June 5, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5989 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from last week; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4158 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from last week; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5312 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from last week; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3838 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from last week [12] - **April Pulp Import Volume**: In April 2025, China imported 289.3 tons of pulp, with an import amount of 1825.2 million US dollars and an average unit price of 630.90 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and amount from January to April increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. In April, the import volume of softwood pulp was 75.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.57%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 119.93 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.70% [16] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of June 5, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 213.29 tons, a 1.6% decrease from last week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.60 percentage points [19][35] - **April European Inventory**: In April 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 12.81% month - on - month and increased by 13.61% compared with April 2024. The inventory in UK and German ports increased by 38.60% and 15.72% respectively month - on - month, while the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Italy and Spain decreased by 18.88%, 20.57% and 2.67% respectively month - on - month [22] - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. The operating rates of downstream pulp types are diverging. The operating load rates of double - copper paper and white cardboard increased month - on - month, while those of double - offset paper and household paper decreased month - on - month. Paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the pulp market sales rhythm is slow [28] 3. Future Outlook - The pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports decreased, and the decline rate narrowed. The operating rates of downstream pulp types are diverging. Paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the pulp market continues the dynamic game. The domestic hardwood pulp market price is running at a low level, and the spot price of imported wood pulp in some regions is adjusted according to the market, with weak price - rising momentum. The pulp market continues the pattern of rebound and decline, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [35]