截至12月29日，中国AA级瓦楞纸120g市场月均价3129元/吨，环比跌幅1.29%，同比涨幅8.50%。影响价 格变动主要原因系：1)供给端，上旬规模纸厂续涨、中小厂让利出货致心态分化，中下旬规模纸厂保价 且结算超预期，市场超跌带动成交重心下移;2)成本端，废纸价格持续走低且中旬跌幅扩大，利空纸 价，月底止跌反弹缓和利空力度;3)需求端，包装环节订单改善有限、后市预期偏空，下游以消耗库存 为主，纸厂库存压力增加压制价格，月底补库量有限。 截至12月29日，12月70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4730元/吨，环比下跌0.04%。影响价格变动主要原 因系：1)纸厂月初提价未落地，市场观望情绪浓;2)年末经销商采购理性，中上旬纸企库存累积;3)出版 订单提货缓解库存压力，带动本白双胶纸部分成交上行;4)木浆市场小幅上涨，但浆纸传导效率一般。 白纸板：提价函推动价格延续上涨，库存水平较低 截至12月29日250-400g平张白卡纸市场成交含税月均价4237元/吨，环比上涨0.98%，同比下跌0.16%。 影响价格变动主要原因系：1)纸价处低位、成本承压，规模纸厂坚持拉涨;2)贸易商跟涨分化，部分提价 50-100 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，截至11月26日，11月70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4731元/吨，环比下跌3元/ 吨，跌幅0.06%，月初部分纸企喊涨，但经销商备库偏谨慎，新单跟进有限。箱瓦纸方面，截至11月26 日，中国AA级瓦楞纸120g市场月均价3164元/吨，环比涨幅6.35%，同比涨幅16.71%。11月上旬上游纸 厂库存低位，涨价意愿明显，为价格提供了有力支撑；中下旬部分规模纸厂装置检修3-8天，减少了供 应量，进一步巩固了价格支撑；规模纸厂价格延续上涨政策，持续提振市场看涨情绪。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 文化纸：纸厂提价稳定终端价格，需求疲软延续 截至11月26日，11月70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4731元/吨，环比下跌3元/吨，跌幅0.06%，第一， 月初部分纸企喊涨，但经销商备库偏谨慎，新单跟进有限；第二，月内除江苏地区部分产线短暂检修以 外，规模纸厂多数生产稳定，市场供应充足；第三，出版招标陆续推进，个别地区招标价格偏低，加重 市场观望心态；第四，上游原料木浆市场先涨后跌，月内浆纸传导效应减弱。 箱瓦纸：纸厂持续拉涨，盈利承压 截至11月26日，中国AA级瓦楞纸120g市场月均价3164元/吨 ...

Group 1: Cultural Paper - The average market price of 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper as of October 29 is 4735 CNY/ton, a decrease of 66 CNY/ton or 1.37% month-on-month [1] - New production capacity of 400,000 tons in South China is gradually being released, increasing local supply pressure and negatively impacting paper prices [1] - Demand remains weak with limited support for paper prices from essential needs, as only a few units have issued tender announcements this month [1] Group 2: White Cardboard - The average market price of 250-400g flat white cardboard as of October 29 is 4054 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.30% from September [2] - Paper manufacturers continue to raise prices, with a new price increase notice issued on the 22nd, planning to raise prices by 200 CNY/ton [2] - Sufficient prior orders for production enterprises and the absence of new domestic capacity release support a bullish market sentiment [2] Group 3: Corrugated Paper - The average market price of AA-grade corrugated paper (120g) as of October 29 is 2962 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 6.51% and a year-on-year increase of 12.88% [3] - Tight performance in the waste paper market has led to increased procurement costs for paper manufacturers, prompting multiple price increases to alleviate losses [3] - Downstream packaging companies are stocking up due to concerns over rising prices, further reducing inventory pressure for paper manufacturers [3] Group 4: Wood Pulp - The average price of imported wood pulp in October shows mixed trends, with market transactions primarily driven by essential needs [4] - The continuous price increase of broadleaf pulp in the external market provides cost support, while domestic demand remains weak [4] - The tightening of import inspections for recycled fiber pulp has shifted some demand towards virgin pulp, leading to price increases [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates a slowdown in the decline of pulp and paper prices in July, with expectations for a rebound in pulp prices and stabilization in white paper prices, while black paper continues to rise [1] - The cultural paper segment faces ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with rising waste paper prices providing some support for corrugated paper prices [1] Group 2: Cultural Paper - As of July 29, the average market price for 70g wood pulp high white double glue paper was 5,094 RMB/ton, a decrease of 57 RMB/ton (1.11%) month-on-month and a drop of 525 RMB/ton (9.34%) year-on-year [2] - Factors affecting the market include limited adjustments in paper factory pricing, moderate inventory pressure due to concentrated orders, and weak downstream demand leading to cautious purchasing by distributors [2] Group 3: White Cardboard - As of July 29, the average market price for 250-400g flat white cardboard was 4,036 RMB/ton, down 1.25% from June and 9.02% year-on-year [3] - The market is characterized by oversupply, weak terminal demand, and cautious purchasing behavior from customers, with small paper mills offering limited-time promotions [3] Group 4: Corrugated Paper - As of July 29, the average market price for corrugated paper was 3,449 RMB/ton, a decrease of 52 RMB/ton (1.49%) from June and a year-on-year decline of 5.03% [4] - The market saw mixed price movements in early July, but a price increase from large paper mills in the latter half of the month led to a slight uptick in market prices [4] Group 5: Pulp Market - The main prices for imported broadleaf pulp are around 490 USD/ton, with some sources maintaining prices at 500 USD/ton, while imported softwood pulp prices remain stable [5] - The pulp market is characterized by weak demand from the paper industry, leading to a decline in pulp prices, despite some upward pressure from market sentiment and policy expectations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates a downward trend in pulp and paper prices in June, with expectations for pulp prices to remain low and paper prices to show weak performance during the off-season [1] Group 1: Pulp and Paper Price Trends - In June, the average price of double glue paper decreased by 0.9% to 5153 CNY/ton, while white card paper saw a slight increase of 0.29% before turning down, and boxboard paper fell by 0.31% [1] - The market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to a continued decline in prices for cultural paper, white card paper, and boxboard paper [1] Group 2: Cultural Paper Insights - As of June 27, the market average price for 70g high white double glue paper was 5153 CNY/ton, down 47 CNY/ton (0.90%) month-on-month and down 573 CNY/ton (10.01%) year-on-year [2] - Paper mills reported stable pricing at the beginning of the month, with cautious purchasing behavior from distributors and significant inventory pressure leading to price reductions [2] Group 3: White Card Paper Analysis - The average market price for 250-400g flat white card paper was 4088 CNY/ton as of June 27, reflecting a 0.29% increase from May but a 6.17% decrease from the same period last year [3] - Despite initial price increases, the lack of sustained demand during the traditional off-season led to a gradual decline in prices as mid-month approached [3] Group 4: Boxboard Paper Overview - The average price for boxboard paper was 3503 CNY/ton as of June 27, down 11 CNY/ton (0.31%) from May and down 3.68% year-on-year [4] - The traditional off-season in June resulted in weak demand, with increased inventory levels and limited orders from paper mills contributing to a downward price trend [4] Group 5: Pulp Market Conditions - Chile's Arauco announced new pulp prices: needle pulp at 720 USD/ton and unbleached pulp at 620 USD/ton, with no current quotes for broadleaf pulp [5] - The demand side remains weak, with paper mills adopting price-cutting strategies to manage procurement costs, further pressuring pulp prices [5] - The overall market is experiencing a supply surplus, with stable import volumes and abundant domestic pulp supply, limiting price rebounds in the imported pulp market [5]