Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market has a weak fundamental situation, which may restrict the rebound space. It is recommended to approach it with an interval - oscillation mindset [35] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2509, rebounded from a low level [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of July 17, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,835 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,080 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from last week, with the increase rate expanding by 0.14 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,013 yuan/ton, down 1.99% from last week, with the decline rate expanding by 1.21 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,777 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase [12] - **Accumulated Pulp Imports from January to June**: In June 2025, China imported 3.031 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.9079 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 629.46 US dollars/ton. The accumulated import volume and value from January to June increased by 4.2% and 2.3% respectively compared with the same period last year [16] - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1621 million tons, down 1.08% from last week, turning from an increase to a decline [20] - **European Port Inventory in May**: In May 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. The inventory in UK and Spanish ports decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% respectively month - on - month, while the inventory in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% respectively month - on - month [23] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Waste pulp consumption accounts for 63% of the total pulp consumption in China; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6%. As of July 17, the operating load rate of double - copper paper remained flat compared with last week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper increased by 1.41 percentage points; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 2.31 percentage points; the operating load rate of household paper decreased by 2.73 percentage points [28] 3. Future Outlook - The weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports decreased by 1.41% from last week, turning from an increase to a decline. Affected by the off - season atmosphere of traditional industries, terminal orders are insufficient, and the downstream base paper industry still faces shipment pressure and has low enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials. The pulp port inventory remains at a high level in recent years, and the overall de - stocking rhythm is slow. The lower - end cost also provides some support, and industry players are reluctant to sell at low prices. The overall market rebound is restricted by the weak fundamentals. It is recommended to use an interval - oscillation approach [35]

Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report (Week 2, July 2025) [1] - Analyst: Pan Shengjie from the Commodity Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The pulp market fundamentals are stabilizing [3] - The supply - demand relationship in the pulp market has not improved significantly, and weak demand restricts the rebound of pulp prices [4] - Global pulp market shows a growth trend in the past five months, especially the domestic market [4] Summary by Directory Pulp Market Fundamentals - This week, the spot prices of imported wood pulp varied. Imported softwood pulp prices rebounded from the bottom, narrowing the decline of the average price; imported hardwood pulp prices rose due to non - standard basis quotes and low - price reluctance to sell; the supply - demand relationship did not improve significantly, and the demand was weak; imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp prices followed the decline of imported softwood pulp prices [4] - From the monthly hardwood pulp balance data, the current fundamentals are favorable for the relative strength of hardwood pulp. The cost support for the hardwood - softwood price spread in July has improved [4] - Trump's new tariff policies push the US economic policy uncertainty index to a record high. The US tariff policy on Brazil may increase Brazil's hardwood pulp exports to other regions and is negative for the basis of Brazilian hardwood pulp. The US tariff on Canada is expected to be negative for the basis of Canadian softwood pulp [4] - As of May, global pulp shipments decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. Softwood pulp shipments decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, while hardwood pulp shipments increased by 3.1% year - on - year. However, the cumulative shipments in 2025 still had a nearly 10% year - on - year increase. The global pulp industry's operating rate was close to 90% for the second consecutive month in May, but it also brought inventory pressure. In May, softwood pulp inventory increased by 5 days to 46 days, and hardwood pulp inventory increased by 4 days to 51 days. The domestic paper - making enterprises' finished - product inventory decreased by 0.2% year - on - year in May, the first year - on - year decrease since April 2024 [4] Impact of Softwood Supply on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, European bleached softwood kraft pulp inventory decreased by 238,000 tons month - on - month, consumption increased by 269,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The average value in the past 12 months increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 6 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [11] - Domestic softwood chip imports increased for two consecutive months, reaching 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp). Softwood pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months, reaching 821,000 tons. The total long - fiber imports were 832,000 tons, with a 4.3% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 6 months, and the decline has been narrowing for 7 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [11] Impact of Hardwood Supply on Hardwood - Softwood Price Spread - As of May 2025, hardwood chip imports increased by 1.289 million tons month - on - month, equivalent to 644,000 tons of pulp; hardwood pulp imports increased by 1.309 million tons month - on - month. Softwood chip imports increased for two consecutive months, reaching 21,000 tons, equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp; softwood pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months, reaching 821,000 tons. The short - fiber to long - fiber import ratio was 2.35 times, with a 10.5% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 4 months, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood price spread [18] - The use of hardwood pulp in domestic paper decreased by 2.224 million tons month - on - month, and the use of softwood pulp decreased for three consecutive months, reaching 523,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times, with an 8.0% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 9 months, and the growth has been expanding for 8 months, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood price spread [18] Impact of International Pulp and Paper Trade on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, domestic pulp import value increased by $1.906 billion month - on - month, and the US pulp import value decreased by $308 million month - on - month in April. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion, with a 3.6% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been expanding for 2 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [23] - The total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million, with a 5.4% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been expanding for 2 months, which is negative for SP unilateral with full impact [23] Impact of Port Inventory on SP Unilateral - As of July 11, 2025, the total inventory of four ports and warehouse receipts was 2.378 million tons, with a 9.3% year - on - year increase, and continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 9 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [29] Impact of Port Inventory on Hardwood - Softwood Price Spread - As of July 11, 2025, the ratio of the four - port inventory to warehouse receipt inventory increased for four consecutive months, reaching 8.94 times. The average value in the past 6 months increased by 60.7% year - on - year, and the marginal inventory decreased for 3 months, which is relatively negative for hardwood pulp [34] Impact of Manufacturing PMI on SP Unilateral - As of June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI increased for two consecutive months, reaching 49.7 points, with a 0.2% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average value, and the growth has been narrowing for 3 months. The US manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month, reaching 49.0 points, with a 1.3% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average value, and the growth has been narrowing for 10 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [42] Impact of Domestic Paper Production and Inventory on SP Unilateral - As of April 2025, domestic paper industry electricity consumption decreased month - on - month, reaching 838 million kWh, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase in the cumulative value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 9 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [50] - Domestic paper industry finished - product inventory increased for four consecutive months, reaching 77.57 billion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 13 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [50] Impact of US Economic Policy and International Oil Price on SP Unilateral - As of July 2025, the US economic policy uncertainty index increased month - on - month, reaching 435.3 points, with an 82.8% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing. Brent crude oil price decreased month - on - month, reaching $69.1 per barrel, with a 20.9% year - on - year decrease in the average value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been narrowing, with marginal strengthening, which is positive for SP price [56] Impact of International Trade and US Dollar Index on SP Unilateral - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the cumulative value in the past 6 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 2 months, which is positive for SP valuation [57] - In June, the real broad - based US dollar index decreased for five consecutive months, reaching 114.9 points, with a 5.7% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 9 months, and continuous marginal increase for 16 months, which is negative for SP unilateral. The general cycle of the US dollar index is 22 months [63]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly paper pulp report from Guoxin Futures, covering the week up to June 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The main contract of pulp futures shifted positions. The SP2509 contract showed a weak performance, with a weekly decline of 0.72% [6] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Pulp Market Prices - As of June 12, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,989 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week and changing from a decline to stability; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,161 yuan/ton, rising 0.07% from the previous week and changing from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,272 yuan/ton, falling 0.75% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.17 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,818 yuan/ton, falling 0.52% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.42 percentage points [11] April Pulp Imports - In April 2025, China imported 2.893 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.8252 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 630.90 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to April increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared to the same period last year. In April, the import volume of softwood pulp was 757,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.57%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 1.1993 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.41% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.70% [15] Port Inventory - As of June 12, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.1771 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.07% and changing from a decline to an increase [18][34] European Inventory in April - In April 2025, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 12.81% month-on-month but increased by 13.61% compared to April 2024. In April, the inventory in the ports of the UK and Germany increased by 38.60% and 15.72% month-on-month respectively, while the inventory in the ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Italy, and Spain decreased by 18.88%, 20.57%, and 2.67% month-on-month respectively. Overall, the inventory in most European ports decreased month-on-month, leading to a month-on-month decline in the total European port inventory in April [21] Consumption - Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. In terms of wood pulp, the regular maintenance of domestic hardwood pulp industry sample enterprises ended this week, driving the industry's operating load rate to rebound by 2 percentage points compared to the previous week; the production schedule of chemimechanical pulp industry sample enterprises was stable, and the overall industry's operating load rate remained the same as the previous week. In terms of non-wood pulp, a few sample bamboo pulp enterprises stopped for maintenance, and the operating load rate decreased by 3 percentage points compared to the previous week; the previously maintained equipment of sugarcane pulp resumed production, and some enterprises flexibly switched to bagasse pulp production, with the operating load rate increasing by 7 percentage points compared to the previous week [27] Group 4: Future Outlook - As of June 12, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports increased by 2.07% month-on-month and changed from a decline to an increase. Regarding the external quotation, after Chile's Arauco Company announced the external quotation for wood pulp in June, the June quotation of CMPC's hardwood pulp "Little Bird" remained unchanged; other pulp mills have not yet announced a new round of external prices. Imported wood pulp traders lowered the spot prices of some grades in some regions, and downstream paper mills showed insufficient enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The sales rhythm of the pulp market was slow, and the dynamic game continued. The operation suggestion is to wait and see for now [34]

研究所 偏弱震荡，关注主力合约移仓换月 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年6月8日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 本周纸浆期货主力合约移仓换月，SP2509偏弱运行，周度跌幅1.32%。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至6月5日，本周进口针叶浆周均价5989元/吨，较上周下跌0.50%，跌幅较上期收窄0.45个百分点；进口阔叶浆周均价4158元/吨 ，较上周下跌0.83%，跌幅较上期收窄0.51个百分点；进口本色浆周均价5312元/吨，较上周下跌0.58%，跌幅较上期扩大0.08个百分点；进口化机浆周均价 3838元/吨，较上周下跌0.10%，由稳转跌。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：4月份纸浆进口量环比下滑 研究所 进口方面， ...