Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of excess return (Alpha) in quantitative investment, highlighting the need for thorough analysis and attribution of performance to understand the sources of excess returns and evaluate the effectiveness of quantitative strategies [2][3]. Group 1: Excess Return and Its Calculation - Excess return (Alpha) is defined as the return of an investment portfolio relative to a benchmark, reflecting the ability to outperform passive benchmarks through active management [3]. - The calculation of excess return varies based on the chosen strategy and benchmark, with a core formula being: Excess Return = Portfolio Return - Benchmark Return [3]. - An example illustrates that if a quantitative strategy has a return of 25% while the benchmark (e.g., CSI 300) returns 10%, the simple excess return is 15% [3]. Group 2: Sources of Excess Return - Excess return can be categorized into three components: Pure Alpha, Smart Beta, and Beta, each with different characteristics and risk profiles [3]. - The performance of excess return is influenced by external market factors and the comprehensive investment capabilities of the institution, which are critical for assessing a fund's sustainability of returns [3]. Group 3: Brinson Attribution Model - The Brinson attribution model is a widely used method for performance attribution, breaking down excess return into allocation effect, selection effect, and interaction effect [4]. - The model requires detailed portfolio holding data to accurately assess the contributions of asset allocation and stock selection to excess returns [4]. Group 4: Performance Attribution Example - An example using the Brinson model shows a fund outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.2%, with contributions from asset allocation and stock selection analyzed to determine the sources of excess return [9]. - The analysis reveals that stock selection contributes significantly to excess return, indicating a strong capability in identifying high-performing stocks [9]. Group 5: Barra Risk Model - The Barra risk model is utilized for post-performance analysis, helping to identify risk exposures and optimize investment strategies [10][11]. - The model decomposes risk into various factors, allowing for a detailed understanding of how different risk factors contribute to overall portfolio volatility [13]. Group 6: Risk Management and Optimization - The article discusses the importance of managing risk while maintaining return potential, with specific strategies for adjusting factor exposures to enhance performance [15][16]. - It highlights the need for continuous strategy iteration and adaptation to market conditions to mitigate risks associated with excess returns [17].

Core Insights - The futures market has shown continuous growth in 2023, with total funds exceeding 1.9 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][3] - The market's ability to serve the real economy and enhance risk management has improved significantly, indicating a new stage of industry development [2] Market Size and Growth - The total funds in the futures market have rapidly increased since 2020, surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan in August 2023, with an expected year-end target of over 2 trillion yuan [3][4] - The cumulative trading volume reached 5.97 billion contracts and a trading value of 47.61 trillion yuan from January to August 2023, reflecting year-on-year growth of 21.7% and 22.9% respectively [4] Factors Driving Growth - Three main factors contributing to the record high in futures market funds include geopolitical and economic policy changes, capital market dynamics, and regulatory policies promoting market development [4] - The stable trading environment is indicated by a consistent trading-to-holding ratio of 0.77, suggesting rational market participation without excessive speculation [5] Asset Management Expansion - The scale of futures asset management has increased significantly, with private asset management products reaching 383.97 billion yuan by July 2025, a growth of over 22% from the previous year [5][6] - The demand for diversified investment solutions among high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors is driving the expansion of futures asset management [6][7] Future Outlook - The futures market is closely linked to the real economy, with increasing participation from industrial clients and financial institutions [7] - Continuous regulatory improvements and product innovations are expected to enhance the market's pricing and risk management capabilities [7][8] - The opening of capital markets and the expansion of foreign institutional participation are anticipated to boost market liquidity and pricing efficiency [7]