文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 很多投资者都希望多元化配置自己的资金，想要覆盖人民币资产和外币资产，也想要覆盖股票资产和债券类资产。 美元债就是其中的重要一环，那么美元债券基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，系统性地介绍了美元债券基金的投资知识。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 美元债 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ 买得便宜，是对自己的保护 好品种+好价格+长期持有=好收益。 具体投资时,还需要"等到好价格"，也 就是要买得便宜。 再好的品种，如果买贵了，风险也是会比 较大。 例如在2007年、2015年牛市，五六千点 的位置买入，不仅赚不到钱，短期内还会 亏很多钱。 反过来,如果买得便宜,也就是在熊市投 资，未来赚钱的概率更大。 例如在2018年年底的A股熊市,买入股票 基金长期持有，收益大概率是不错的。 市场始终存在不理性的行为，会让价格偏 离价值，此时就容易出现低估的机会。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 在低估阶段买入，未来大概率会有更好的 收益。 那么,怎么去判断一个品种在当前是否便 宜呢? ...

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant increase in passive foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market, particularly through ETFs, indicating renewed interest from international investors in Chinese equities [1][14]. Group 1: ETF Inflows - The largest Chinese stock ETF listed in the US, KWEB, saw a net inflow of $876 million (approximately 6.29 billion RMB) from July 17 to July 25, with a peak single-day inflow of $264 million on July 17, marking a five-month high [2][5]. - Other ETFs also experienced substantial inflows, such as MCHI, which had a net inflow of $154 million on July 24 and $201 million on July 25, setting a new annual single-day inflow record [2][3]. - FXI reversed a long trend of outflows with a net inflow of $76.9 million on June 17, while ASHR recorded a net inflow of $96 million over the past month [3]. Group 2: Performance of Chinese ETFs - KWEB has delivered a one-year return of 41.84% with a current size of $7.76 billion, while MCHI has a return of 46.97% and a size of $7.22 billion [5]. - FXI has shown a one-year return of 55.81% with a size of $6.58 billion, and ASHR has a return of 24.49% with a size of $2.12 billion [5]. - CQQQ, a technology-focused ETF, saw a net inflow of $7.23 million in the past month, with a peak inflow of $4.84 million on June 27, marking a three-month high [4]. Group 3: Active Management Funds - Some overseas active management funds are increasing their positions in internet technology stocks, reflecting a preference for high-tech ETFs amid the return of passive capital [6]. - The FSSA China Growth I fund, with a size of $2.7 billion, has increased its holdings in Tencent by 2.75% and in Trip.com by 9.18% [7][8]. - The Fidelity China Focus Fund, with a size of $2.5 billion, has increased its stake in Alibaba by 12.46% and in Trip.com by 6.32% [9][10]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90, suggesting an 11% upside potential for the index [14]. - The firm noted a resurgence of interest in Chinese stocks among international investors, driven by diversification needs, expectations of a stronger RMB, and the emergence of AI applications in China [14]. - Despite a recent rebound in US stocks, many overseas investors are strategically rebalancing their portfolios through IPOs and secondary offerings, with foreign cornerstone investor participation in Hong Kong IPOs reaching a five-year high [16].

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant inflow of overseas passive funds back into the Chinese stock market, particularly through ETFs, indicating renewed interest from international investors [2][4][14]. Group 1: ETF Inflows - The largest Chinese stock ETF listed in the US, KWEB, saw a net inflow of $876 million (approximately 6.29 billion RMB) from July 17 to July 25, with a single-day inflow peak of $264 million on July 17, marking a five-month high [4][5]. - Other ETFs also experienced substantial inflows, such as MCHI with $154 million and $201 million on July 24 and 25 respectively, and FXI with $76.9 million on June 17, reversing a long trend of outflows [5][6]. - CQQQ, a technology-focused ETF, recorded a net inflow of $72.3 million in the past month, with a notable single-day inflow of $48.4 million on June 27 [5]. Group 2: Performance of ETFs - KWEB has shown a one-year return of 41.84% with a current size of $7.76 billion, while MCHI has a return of 46.97% and a size of $7.22 billion [6]. - FXI has the highest one-year return at 55.81% with a size of $6.58 billion, indicating strong performance among these ETFs [6]. - The technology-focused CQQQ has a one-year return of 46.02% and a size of $1.26 billion, reflecting the growing interest in tech stocks [6]. Group 3: Active Fund Management - Some overseas active management funds are also increasing their positions in internet technology stocks, with notable examples including FSSA China Growth I and Fidelity's China Focus Fund, which have sizes of $2.7 billion and $2.5 billion respectively [8][10]. - These funds have shown strong performance, with Fidelity's fund reaching a five-year high in net value [10][12]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90, suggesting an 11% upside potential, and maintains an overweight stance on Chinese stocks [14]. - The renewed interest in Chinese stocks is driven by diversification needs beyond the US market, expectations of a stronger RMB, and the emergence of AI applications in China [14].

Core Insights - The report discusses the investment strategies of U.S. pensions during low interest rate periods, highlighting the significant shifts in asset allocation in response to economic shocks and changing market conditions [2][5][9] - It emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments into alternative assets such as private equity, real estate, and infrastructure to enhance returns and mitigate risks in a low yield environment [2][78] Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - The U.S. has experienced two notable low interest rate periods: from January 2009 to December 2015 and from March 2020 to March 2022, characterized by federal funds rates below 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [5][9] - During these periods, the U.S. pension system, particularly the second pillar, saw significant changes in asset allocation, with a notable increase in bond and mixed fund investments [2][9] Group 2: U.S. Pension Structure - As of Q1 2025, the total scale of the U.S. pension system reached $44.1 trillion, with the second pillar (employer-sponsored plans) being the largest component at $24.2 trillion [9][12] - The second pillar consists of Defined Benefit (DB) plans and Defined Contribution (DC) plans, with the latter growing in prominence over the past three decades [12][18] Group 3: DC Plan Investment Characteristics - DC plans have maintained a core allocation to equity funds, with significant increases in mixed and bond fund allocations during economic downturns [21][23] - The report notes that during the early stages of economic shocks, DC plans rapidly increased their bond fund allocations, reflecting a shift towards safer assets [23][24] Group 4: DB Plan Investment Characteristics - The New York State Common Retirement Fund and Texas Teacher Retirement System are highlighted as examples of DB plans that have adjusted their asset allocations in response to low interest rates [43][66] - The New York fund has maintained a stable allocation to fixed income while increasing exposure to alternative investments, whereas the Texas fund has significantly increased its allocation to private equity and real estate [44][70] Group 5: Investment Implications - The report concludes that in low interest rate environments, U.S. pensions should focus on increasing allocations to fixed income and alternative investments to enhance portfolio resilience and returns [78]

Group 1 - Many investors aim to diversify their funds, covering both RMB and foreign currency assets, as well as stock and bond assets [1] - Dollar bonds are an important component of this diversification strategy [2] Group 2 - A free course is available that systematically introduces investment knowledge related to dollar bond funds [2] - Interested individuals can add the "Course Assistant" and reply with "Dollar Bond" to access the course [3]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' investment strategy team has made significant adjustments to the U.S. sector allocation model, recommending a more balanced sector allocation strategy for investors [1] - The updated sector model indicates that an equal-weight sector allocation portfolio has a significantly higher probability of achieving over 5% excess returns compared to an equal-weight S&P 500 index over the next six months [1] Sector Recommendations - The software and services, as well as media and entertainment sectors, continue to hold their previous overweight ratings, while the new materials sector has been included in the core recommendations for the first time [1] - The consumer staples sector has been removed from the priority allocation list [1] - The report emphasizes that the current U.S. stock market exhibits an overly optimistic outlook on the economic prospects, with both downside risks and upside potential present in the actual economic performance [1] Investment Strategy - The strategy report suggests avoiding significant bias towards cyclical or defensive sectors, advocating for a balanced investment portfolio that can withstand market fluctuations [1] - In terms of specific sector selection, software and services (long-term growth expectation of 14%) and media and entertainment (long-term growth expectation of 14%) stand out due to their robust growth prospects, particularly in a moderately growing economy [1] - Defensive sectors such as utilities and real estate are favored due to the expectation of a slight decline in bond yields [1] - Among cyclical sectors, the materials sector is viewed as having a better allocation advantage compared to the energy sector, primarily based on expectations of falling oil prices [1] Adjustments and Market Outlook - The industrial sector has been downgraded due to its overall valuation being at historical highs, with the model indicating the lowest likelihood of achieving significant excess returns over the next six months [2] - Although the consumer staples and healthcare sectors are not explicitly bearish, their allocation priority has been slightly lowered compared to the model's baseline recommendations [2] - The adjustments reflect Goldman Sachs' neutral judgment on the market environment, acknowledging the reasonableness of current market optimism while diversifying allocations to hedge against potential risks [2] - The strategy team highlights that in the context of economic growth uncertainty, sectors that combine growth potential with reasonable valuations will exhibit greater investment resilience, while excessive bets on a single direction may face dual volatility risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of investment strategies in light of declining interest rates and the need for diversified asset allocation to preserve and grow wealth in an uncertain economic environment [3][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - Inflation has significantly decreased, with CPI showing negative growth for four consecutive months starting February 2025, making it easier for individuals to maintain purchasing power without active investment [3]. - The interest rate for one-year deposits at major banks has dropped to 0.9%, resulting in minimal returns for savers [4]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on four main asset classes: A-shares, gold, domestic bonds, and U.S. bonds, each with distinct risk-return profiles [6]. - A-shares are seen as a representative of domestic equity assets, while gold serves as a recognized hedge against inflation. Domestic bonds are favored for their stability and credit quality, and U.S. bonds are crucial for currency risk hedging [6]. Group 3: A-shares Market Analysis - The biggest risk for A-shares this year has been the U.S.-China trade tensions, which caused significant market fluctuations, including a 7.34% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index on April 7 [8][10]. - Despite initial pessimism regarding economic performance, recent data indicates a recovery in manufacturing PMI and stable export performance, leading to a rebound in A-shares [9][10]. - The market is currently experiencing a bullish phase, but uncertainty remains regarding the sustainability of this trend, heavily dependent on economic fundamentals [12]. Group 4: Gold Market Insights - The perception of gold has shifted, with recent price volatility reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical events and trade negotiations. Gold prices reached a peak increase of 30% this year, driven by trade tensions [12][14]. - Short-term outlook for gold is cautious, with potential price corrections anticipated due to changing market sentiments and economic indicators in the U.S. [16][17]. Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market in 2025 is characterized by lower returns compared to 2024, with ten-year government bond ETFs showing only a 0.81% increase in the first half of the year [20][23]. - The strategy for bond investments should focus on tactical trading rather than long-term holding, with specific yield thresholds suggested for buying and selling [24]. Group 6: U.S. Bond Market Concerns - The yield on U.S. ten-year bonds has risen above 4.6%, indicating a shift in perception where they are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than safe havens [26][27]. - Recent legislative developments regarding stablecoins may provide temporary relief, but they do not address the underlying structural issues facing the U.S. bond market [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of investment strategies in response to the declining interest rates and the need for diversified asset allocation to preserve and grow wealth in an uncertain economic environment [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Environment - Inflation has significantly decreased, with CPI showing negative growth for four consecutive months starting February 2025, making it easier for individuals to maintain purchasing power without active investment [1][2]. - The interest rate for one-year deposits at major banks has dropped to 0.9%, resulting in minimal returns for savers [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - Diversification is emphasized as a key strategy in the current uncertain global environment, with A-shares, gold, government bonds, and U.S. Treasuries identified as essential components of a balanced portfolio [2]. - A-shares are seen as the representative of domestic equity assets, while gold serves as a recognized hedge against inflation [2]. Group 3: A-shares Market Analysis - The A-share market has experienced volatility due to U.S.-China trade tensions, with a significant drop in the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.34% on April 7, 2025, followed by a gradual recovery [3][5]. - The market's recovery is attributed to low valuations and better-than-expected economic fundamentals, with the manufacturing PMI showing signs of stabilization [5][6]. Group 4: Gold Market Insights - The gold market has seen a substantial increase, with prices peaking at $3,500 per ounce, but there are concerns about potential declines due to market volatility and changing economic indicators [9][10]. - The outlook for gold is mixed, with short-term fluctuations expected based on U.S.-China trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions [10][11]. Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has shifted from a bullish to a more cautious stance, with the ten-year government bond ETF showing only a 0.81% increase in the first half of 2025 compared to 8.88% in 2024 [14][16]. - The strategy for bond investments is to adopt a more active approach, focusing on buying low and selling high, as the market enters a period of increased volatility [18][20]. Group 6: U.S. Treasury Bonds - U.S. Treasury yields have risen, indicating a shift in perception where they are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than safe havens [21][22]. - Recent legislative developments regarding stablecoins may provide temporary relief, but they are unlikely to resolve the underlying structural issues facing the U.S. Treasury market [23][24].

Group 1 - The private equity fund industry in China is experiencing a surge in product registrations, with 1,775 private securities investment fund managers completing 5,461 product registrations in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.61% and a more than 100% increase compared to the second half of the previous year, indicating a significant recovery in market confidence and an enhanced willingness for capital allocation [1] - Among the five primary strategies, the stock strategy leads with 3,458 registered products, accounting for 63.32% of the total, reflecting strong enthusiasm for equity asset allocation, driven by factors such as the release of technology innovation policy dividends and robust performance in key sectors like artificial intelligence [1] - Multi-asset strategies and futures and derivatives strategies follow with 802 and 633 registered products, representing 14.69% and 11.59% respectively, highlighting an increased demand for diversified allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Group 2 - Quantitative private equity institutions have shown remarkable performance during the current registration wave, with 27 out of 33 institutions having at least 20 registered products being quantitative, including 18 large-scale institutions with over 10 billion yuan in assets, showcasing their advantages in research capabilities, risk control systems, and brand effects [2] - A total of 2,448 registered quantitative strategy private products were recorded, with stock quantitative strategies dominating at 1,715 products, accounting for 70.06%, and the index enhancement strategy being the most favored with 1,061 products, representing 61.87% of stock quantitative strategies [2] - The small and micro-cap sector is expected to become a blue ocean for excess returns in quantitative strategies, as traditional broad-based index strategies face intensified competition and diminishing excess returns due to increased capital inflow [3]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors are diversifying their portfolios and reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over rising deficits and inflationary tariffs, which are diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. debt [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Foreign Investment - The U.S. national debt has quadrupled to approximately $36 trillion in less than a decade, with public holdings around $29 trillion [3]. - In April, foreign capital saw a net outflow of $14.2 billion from U.S. Treasury bonds and the banking system, influenced by Trump's tariff policies [2][3]. - Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at $1.13 trillion, followed by the UK at $807.7 billion and China at $757.2 billion [3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Fiscal Policy - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax cuts and spending measures will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion, leading to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [2]. - The Senate is expected to pass a bill that may save $500 billion by using alternative calculations that do not account for the extension of the 2017 tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Shift to European and Other Markets - European bonds, particularly German and French debt, are becoming more attractive to investors as U.S. deficits expand, with Germany maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio below 100% [4]. - The market for German bonds is expected to strengthen, creating better opportunities for equity markets and increasing the issuance of risk-free German and pan-European bonds [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends in Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a long-term structural trend towards diversification rather than a sudden withdrawal [5]. - Concerns over U.S. risk premiums are anticipated to lead to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as investors demand higher returns for holding U.S. debt [6].