风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 薛洪言 来源：雪球 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 多元化的本质是对未知的敬畏——既然无法确定明天哪个板块会涨，那就不要把全部希望押注在单一方向上。这种防守，守的是不犯致命错误。 今日复盘：地缘风暴下的极致分化 3月3日，A股市场呈现极端分化格局。截至收盘，上证指数收跌1.43%，创业板指跌2.57%，两市成交金额31295亿元，环比放量1088亿元。 盘面上，油气板块掀起涨停潮，三桶油领衔30余只个股封死涨停；与此同时，近4800只个股下跌，国防军工跌6.74%，有色金属跌5.61%，电子跌 5.30%，计算机、传媒等板块跌幅均超4%。亚太市场同样惨淡，日经225指数跌3.06%，韩国综合指数暴跌7.24%。 驱动这轮分化的核心变量是霍尔木兹海峡局势升级——这条承担全球五分之一原油运输的海上咽喉一旦被封锁，中东产油国连续生产25天后将被 迫停产，国际油价应声大涨，布伦特原油一度冲上82美元。 投资的核心：风险识别与管理 面对今日这般极致的市场分化，投资者最容易产生的冲动是：我该如何抓住下一个油气板块？我怎样才 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that the global bull market is not over, but the driving forces have shifted from crowded US tech stocks to emerging markets, commodities, and value stocks [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Funds are moving from over-congested US tech stocks to emerging markets (EM), commodities, and "old economy" value stocks [3] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen from 100 to nearly 120 relative to developed markets since the beginning of 2025, indicating a significant revaluation [7] - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the stock market shows resilience, largely due to strong fundamentals and improved macro and micro drivers [9][8] Group 2: AI and Technology Sector - AI capital expenditure is projected to reach $659 billion, but concerns over return on investment (ROI) are rising, leading to significant differentiation among the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks [4][14] - The software sector is experiencing a crisis as AI innovations threaten traditional SaaS models, resulting in a sharp decline in software valuations [5][16] - The correlation among the "Magnificent Seven" has sharply decreased, with varying returns; for instance, Google's return is around 66%, while others like Apple and Amazon lag behind [14][16] Group 3: Value Stocks and Old Economy - There is a revival of interest in value stocks, which were previously seen as "value traps," as some are successfully transforming into "value creators" by generating higher cash flows [18][19] - Capital expenditures in traditional sectors like utilities and telecommunications are increasing, driven by the need for infrastructure to support tech growth [17] - The performance of financial assets has reversed, with gold, emerging markets, and value stocks outperforming tech stocks, marking a significant shift in market dynamics [20] Group 4: Diversification and Future Outlook - The era of diversification is emerging, as the sources of growth are expanding beyond large tech stocks, with strong earnings growth across various sectors [22][23] - Analysts have raised earnings forecasts for 2026 unusually early, particularly for emerging markets, indicating a shift in investment opportunities [12][23] - Investors are encouraged to reassess long-standing allocation habits and diversify across regions, sectors, and styles to capitalize on the changing market landscape [23]

2026 年 02 月 13 日 铝：小幅下跌 氧化铝：偏弱运行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 期 货 研 究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 23610 | 225 | 2470 | -50 | -725 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 23395 | l | - | l | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3098 | -20 | -36 | 204 | 72 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 34812 | 181308 | -292363 | -370361 | -6173 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 159738 | -14665 | -47632 | -933 ...

【德银全球CIO：AI不是泡沫，中国资产吸引力上升】德银全球首席投资官(CIO)克里斯蒂安.诺尔廷(Christian Nolting)表示，围绕AI的投资是一场正在展开的"结构性变革"，尚不足以称之为泡沫；相关投资不应仅聚焦芯片， 而应放眼更完整的价值链；在这一过程中，数据中心、电力与基础设施等领域将同样受益。 【德银全球CIO：AI不是泡沫，中国资产吸引力上升】德银全球首席投资官(CIO)克里斯蒂安.诺尔廷(Christian Nolting)表示，围绕AI的投资是一场正在展开的"结构性变革"，尚不足以称之为泡沫；相关投资不应仅聚焦芯片， 而应放眼更完整的价值链；在这一过程中，数据中心、电力与基础设施等领域将同样受益。 谈及中国及新兴市场，诺尔廷认为，中国资产的吸引力有所增强，来自欧洲和美国的投资兴趣正在回升。 谈及中国及新兴市场，诺尔廷认为，中国资产的吸引力有所增强，来自欧洲和美国的投资兴趣正在回升。 在他看来，在美元走势、通胀风险与地缘政治不确定性并存的环境下，坚持投资纪律、进行多元化配置，将是 2026年应对市场波动的关键。 ...

2026年02月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：海外扰动增强，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：跟随宏观波动 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存增加，价格承压 | 8 | | 锡：节前控制持仓 | 9 | | 铝：小幅下跌 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：受美股拖累下行 | 12 | | 钯：贵金属板块又见疲态，走势撤步 | 12 | | 镍：印尼与菲律宾消息博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 13 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 ...

Group 1: Investment Environment in 2026 - The core principle for the investment landscape in 2026 is "discipline beats drama," emphasizing the need for disciplined investment strategies amidst market volatility [1][3] - Investors are encouraged to view market corrections as opportunities for positioning rather than engaging in cyclical trading behaviors [3] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Investment - AI remains a focal point for investment decisions in 2026, with a broader perspective on the entire AI value chain rather than just chips [4][5] - The ongoing structural transformation in the AI sector is viewed as a significant opportunity for growth, efficiency, and productivity, rather than a bubble [5] Group 3: Emerging Markets and China - Emerging markets, particularly Asia, South America, and Eastern Europe, are expected to perform positively in 2026, supported by a weaker dollar and a global economic environment that has not entered recession [6] - China's attractiveness as an investment destination is increasing, with rising interest from European and American investors, particularly outside the real estate sector [6] Group 4: Currency and Dollar Outlook - While there is discussion about reevaluating exposure to dollar assets, the U.S. market, especially AI-related companies, remains attractive, with equity returns exceeding 20% [7] - The dollar is expected to maintain its importance in investment strategies, despite potential diversification in currency exposure [7] Group 5: Inflation Risks - Inflation risk is identified as a significant concern for 2026, with potential implications for central banks' ability to lower interest rates if inflation exceeds expectations [8] - Factors such as geopolitical events, tariffs, and wage increases due to low unemployment rates are highlighted as drivers of inflation [8] Group 6: Geopolitical Risks and Market Volatility - Geopolitical events are acknowledged as potential sources of market volatility, with a focus on their impact on energy prices and inflation [9] Group 7: European Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth outlook for Europe in 2026 is relatively optimistic, driven by fiscal spending, particularly in Germany, while acknowledging the need for further structural reforms [10]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ◆◆◆ 在震荡期,我们要如何调整自己 的心态呢? A 股真正大涨的时间，大约占7%的交易 日。其他时间里多为震荡或阴跌行情。 很多投资者都希望多元化配置自己的资金，想要覆盖人民币资产和外币资产，也想要覆盖股票资产和债券类资产。 美元债就是其中的重要一环，那么美元债券基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，系统性地介绍了美元债券基金的投资知识。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 美元债 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 在震荡期,看到市场价格短期涨涨跌 跌,有的投资者是比较难受的。如何调 整自己的心态呢？ 巴菲特的老师,格雷厄姆,在价值投资 理念中提到，买股票，就是买公司。 买基金，就好比买了一篮子的股票，拥 有了自己的"迷你集团公司"。 我们以主动优选为例，假设持有1万的主 动优选，这就相当于一个市值1万元的迷 你公司。这个迷你公司买下后，背后公 司，每年会产生约700元的净利润（盈利 =市值/市盈率）。 涉及到的生意包含各行各业:从银行保 险，到电力芯片医药消费...... 很多生意是老百姓自己很难创办 ...

Core Viewpoint - Several small and medium-sized banks have raised deposit product interest rates, indicating a divergence in the market as some banks follow large banks in lowering rates while others choose to increase them. This behavior is seen as a seasonal strategy to attract deposits ahead of the Spring Festival [1][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - On February 4, Xinhui Rural Commercial Bank announced an increase in deposit rates, with 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year fixed deposit rates reaching 1.3%, 1.4%, and 1.75% respectively, and large deposit certificates at 1.4% and 1.8% for 1-year and 3-year terms [2][3]. - Nanyue Rural Commercial Bank introduced a "New Year Special Rate" product with 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year fixed deposit rates at 1%, 1.2%, and 1.3%, respectively, with increases of 20 basis points compared to normal rates [4]. - Tengtian Rural Credit Cooperative launched a new deposit product with rates of 1.3%, 1.4%, 1.65%, and 1.9% for 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year terms, respectively [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Expert Insights - Experts indicate that the recent rate increases by small and medium-sized banks are a rational pricing behavior in response to competitive pressures and a strategy to optimize their liability structure [7][8]. - The current low net interest margin for banks limits their ability to sustain high deposit costs, suggesting that future deposit rates may stabilize at low levels or decrease slightly [8]. - The differentiation in deposit rates reflects a maturing market, with a continued trend of "large banks stabilizing rates while small banks fluctuate" expected in the near term [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in gold prices is attributed to market volatility, but major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase maintain bullish long-term forecasts for gold prices, driven by central bank purchases and investor demand [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - As of February 5, the spot gold price is $4,855.06 per ounce, down $108.48 or 2.19% from the previous trading day, indicating a downward trend [1]. - The trading range for the day saw a high of $5,023.39 and a low of $4,791.69, reflecting significant market fluctuations [1]. Group 2: Institutional Forecasts - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could reach $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by continued central bank purchases and increased allocation to gold ETFs by private investors [1]. - JPMorgan Chase has a more optimistic forecast, expecting gold prices to rise to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by dual demand from central banks and investors [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Recent reports indicate a significant outflow of nearly $1 billion from major Chinese gold ETFs, marking the largest single-day net outflow in history, which reflects weakened investor confidence amid falling gold prices [2]. - The rapid reversal in fund flows from Chinese gold ETFs highlights the sensitivity and fragility of market sentiment, especially after a period of strong inflows [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bearish reversal pattern in gold futures, with a clear signal of a potential top formation after a rapid price drop [3]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $5,000, with a need for a daily close above this level to challenge higher targets, while a failure to maintain above $4,900 could lead to further declines [3].

记者丨 李依农 编辑丨和佳 李莹亮 受多重因素影响，避险资产持续受益，金价强势攀升。 步入2026年，尽管国际货币基金组织预计全球经济增速仍将保持在3%以上，但地缘政治紧张与贸易政策不 确定性持续构成风险，制约增长动力，也重塑着全球资金流向。在此环境下，黄金、白银等贵金属以及新兴 市场资产正获得越来越多关注。 布思哲进一步指出，在资产配置上，他 将继续超配中国市场，并在全球范围内看好以人工智能为核心的科 技主线 ，认为其仍具备可持续的增长潜力。面对复杂多变的宏观与地缘政治环境，他建议投资者通过跨区 域、跨行业的多元化配置，增强投资组合的抵御能力。 新兴市场经济体是增长的关键驱动力 南方财经： 从宏观层面来看，你如何看待2026年全球经济增长趋势？ 布思哲： 我们认为2026年全球经济将呈现缓慢增长的态势，不太可能出现全球性的强劲增长。当然会有局 部亮点，但若观察主要经济体（无论是美国、中国还是欧洲），增长预计均将保持在合理水平，不会特别突 出。以美国经济为例，我们已观察到劳动力市场疲软的迹象，这导致2026年增速将较2025年小幅放缓，不 过 科技行业资本支出周期与人工智能发展仍将对经济形成支撑，这意味着经济 ...