全球主导地位稳固， 高端应用描绘增长新曲线 稀土产业链深度报告 证券分析师：张季恺 执业证书编号：S0630521110001 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 联系人：陈伟业 邮箱：cwy@longone.com.cn 2025年7月16日 | | 一、稀土资源开发与冶炼 | | --- | --- | | 目 | 二、稀土一体化产业壁垒 | | | 三、下游需求增长与政策 | | 录 五、风险提示 | 四、结论与投资建议 | 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 稀土储量、生产分布集中，中国稀土资源较为丰沛 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 澳大利亚 巴西 俄罗斯 美国 中国 越南 全球（右轴） 全球稀土矿（REO）产量（万吨） 资料来源：钢联数据， 东海证券研究所 0 5 10 15 20 25 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have highlighted China's export control on the rare earth element samarium, which is crucial for advanced military technologies, raising concerns in the global defense industry [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Dependency - China accounts for approximately 87% of the global supply of samarium, with Lockheed Martin indicating that each F-35 fighter jet requires 1.2 kg of samarium-cobalt permanent magnets, essential for radar and missile guidance systems [1]. - New export license regulations from China have led to a situation where U.S. military-grade samarium-cobalt permanent magnet inventories can only sustain production needs for about six months, indicating a potential supply chain crisis [1]. - Despite efforts to rebuild the rare earth supply chain through the Inflation Reduction Act, the cost of producing military-grade samarium in California is 3.2 times higher than that of similar products from China [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Challenges - The Baotou Rare Earth Research Institute in China has made breakthroughs in samarium-iron-nitride magnet technology, increasing energy density by 40% compared to traditional samarium-cobalt materials, complicating U.S. efforts to find technological alternatives [3]. - A significant 83% of rare earth material suppliers in the existing military certification system are still from China, creating a challenging dependency for U.S. defense contractors [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Impact - From January to August 2024, China's rare earth exports to the U.S. decreased by 29%, while the export price increased by 18%, indicating a strategic control over the U.S. military-industrial complex [5]. - General Dynamics in Texas has postponed the mass production of the "Abrams X" tank due to a shortage of samarium materials, which has affected the turret gyroscope standards [5]. - The limited supply strategy employed by China poses a more significant threat to U.S. military production capabilities than a complete embargo [5]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The competition over rare earth elements reflects a broader restructuring of power within global supply chains, as China leverages its technological patents and resource reserves to create new trade barriers [7]. - The ongoing silent struggle between the U.S. and China over rare earth elements is expected to profoundly influence the balance of military technology over the next decade [7].

Group 1 - China will implement export controls on seven rare earth elements starting April 2025, which are critical for high-end manufacturing in defense and technology sectors [3][12] - The U.S. military heavily relies on imported rare earth elements, with 92% of its needs met through imports, over 70% of which come from China [5][10] - The price of rare earth elements has surged from $425 per kilogram to $850 per kilogram, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [14] Group 2 - The U.S. lacks the capability to independently refine all heavy rare earth elements, which are essential for advanced military equipment like the F-35 fighter jet [10][20] - China controls 85% to 95% of global rare earth processing capacity, while the U.S. has almost no commercial heavy rare earth separation facilities [21] - The U.S. faces high costs and strict environmental regulations that hinder its rare earth mining and processing capabilities, making it difficult to compete with China's low-cost production [21][22] Group 3 - A wave of executive departures in China's rare earth industry has raised concerns about potential technology leaks, prompting the government to strengthen its technology sovereignty measures [24][26] - China has established a tracking system for rare earth exports to prevent military misuse and has intensified efforts to combat illegal exports [26][28] - The strategic value of China's rare earth resources has become a significant leverage point in geopolitical tensions, particularly as Western nations attempt to decouple from Chinese technology [28][30]

Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented a "case-by-case approval" system for semiconductor equipment exports to China, which is seen as a strategy to slow down China's chip manufacturing capabilities [2][6] - This approach is compared to China's control over rare earth exports, highlighting the differences in resource dependency between the two nations [2][6] - The market reacted positively to the news of China's rare earth sector, with an 8% increase in the rare earth stocks within two days, while TSMC faced uncertainty due to the new approval process [2][6] Group 2 - China's rare earth management is described as a "textbook-level" strategy, effectively controlling military supply while allowing civilian use, showcasing a dual approach [6][10] - The establishment of a full-process traceability system for rare earths by China has made it difficult for U.S. companies to bypass controls, contrasting with the semiconductor equipment situation [6][10] - Chinese companies are advancing their capabilities, with SMIC moving into 28nm processes and Huawei's AI chips nearing NVIDIA's performance, which undermines the effectiveness of U.S. export restrictions [6][10] Group 3 - The ongoing supply chain competition between the U.S. and China has escalated, with both sides trying to outmaneuver each other in terms of technology and resources [8][11] - U.S. semiconductor equipment manufacturers are feeling the pressure, with losses reported at $2.8 billion due to the loss of the Chinese market [6][11] - China's strategy of allowing European car manufacturers to access rare earths while restricting U.S. companies has created a divide in the Western alliance and strengthened China's pricing power [10][11] Group 4 - The U.S. appears to be showing signs of fatigue in this ongoing trade battle, as evidenced by its eagerness to negotiate [11] - The competition is fundamentally about who can endure longer, with the U.S. relying on global collaboration and China leveraging resource monopolization [11] - The outcome of this trade conflict may hinge on who can effectively target the other's vulnerabilities, with China currently holding a strong position due to its control over rare earths [11]

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-China trade negotiations revolves around rare earth exports, with China agreeing to approve some non-military rare earth export licenses while maintaining a hardline stance on military-grade exports [2][4] - The US has gradually relaxed some high-tech product export restrictions but remains firm on advanced AI chip exports, indicating a complex negotiation landscape [2][6] - The US is considering extending the tariff suspension agreement that is set to expire on August 10 by another 90 days, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts [2][9] Group 2 - China holds a dominant position in the rare earth market, producing approximately 70% of global rare earth output and 99% of heavy rare earth refining capacity, which is critical for military applications [4][6] - The US military, particularly companies like Lockheed Martin, heavily relies on samarium for manufacturing F-35 fighter jets, highlighting the strategic importance of rare earths in defense [6][9] - Despite efforts to find alternatives and restart domestic mining, the US still depends on China for processing rare earths, indicating a significant supply chain vulnerability [6][10] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions have led to a strategic stalemate, with both sides holding critical resources—China with rare earths and the US with advanced semiconductor technology [10] - China's recent measures include issuing short-term rare earth export licenses to domestic electric vehicle manufacturers and implementing a digital tracking system for rare earth exports to prevent re-exportation [10] - The situation reflects a shift in power dynamics, with the US realizing that its previous strategies to pressure China may no longer be effective, as evidenced by the need to negotiate on rare earth exports [10]

Core Points - China has recently implemented export controls on certain rare earth items with dual-use military and civilian attributes, affecting foreign automotive companies and raising concerns about the impact on the defense industry [1][5] - The export restrictions are seen as a response to the U.S. government's unilateral tariff measures and technology blockades against China, leading to increased tensions between the two countries [1][5] - Analysts indicate that Western defense giants are also feeling pressure from these export controls, with stock prices of European defense companies declining [1][5] Group 1: Impact on Industries - The automotive and robotics sectors have experienced significant impacts due to the rare earth export controls, with specific mention of the importance of samarium in the manufacturing of F-35 fighter jets [2][4] - The defense industry is facing a potential shortage of rare earth elements, which are critical for various defense technologies, including sonar systems and radar [4][5] - Concerns have been raised that if the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide remains below $60 per kilogram by 2030, nearly half of the non-Chinese rare earth supply could become economically unviable [5] Group 2: Responses and Future Outlook - China has stated that it will continue to review export applications for rare earth items in accordance with international practices, emphasizing the need to maintain national security and fulfill international non-proliferation obligations [6][7] - The Chinese government is open to establishing a green channel for compliant applications to expedite approvals, reflecting a willingness to accommodate reasonable demands from other countries [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have led to a series of countermeasures from China against U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, indicating a broader strategy of using export controls as a tool in international relations [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tianhe Magnetic Materials Technology Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan and a net profit of 136 million yuan for 2024, highlighting its strong position in the high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials sector [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 2.59 billion yuan [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 136 million yuan, with a net profit of 132 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [2] Group 2: Business Strategy - The company focuses on high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials, particularly in sectors such as new energy vehicles, wind power generation, energy-efficient home appliances, 3C consumer electronics, and robotics [2] - Tianhe Magnetic Materials emphasizes a dual-driven business model of sintered neodymium-iron-boron and sintered samarium-cobalt, supported by strong technological innovation and stable product quality [2] - The company plans to enhance R&D, optimize costs, and maintain a high-end market positioning to increase market share and develop new customers and markets [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to strengthen its R&D-driven approach and improve management and information technology levels [3] - The development of humanoid robots is identified as a significant growth point for neodymium-iron-boron magnetic components, with plans to target high-end clients in this area by 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques Lynas Corporation's claims of being a leading non-Chinese rare earth separation company, highlighting that their technology and production capabilities are significantly inferior to China's, despite Western media hype [1][3][10]. Group 1: Technology and Production Capabilities - Lynas's production line in Malaysia is described as outdated, with claims of a "heavy rare earth breakthrough" being likened to cosmetic upgrades rather than genuine technological advancements [3]. - China's advanced "cascade extraction technology" allows for the precise separation of 17 rare earth elements, achieving purity levels down to five decimal places, while Lynas's solvent extraction method fails to reach 90% purity [3][10]. - The article asserts that Lynas's claimed "independent patents" are largely derived from knowledge acquired from a bankrupt Chinese company, undermining their innovation claims [3][10]. Group 2: Cost and Production Efficiency - The cost of producing one kilogram of dysprosium oxide at Lynas is $15, compared to just $4 for the same product from China, highlighting a significant cost disadvantage [5]. - Lynas's environmental measures account for 40% of their total investment, leading to higher operational costs, while China's automated production lines operate more efficiently and at lower costs [5][10]. - Lynas's annual production capacity of 1,500 tons is dwarfed by China's North Rare Earth Group, which can produce over 10,000 tons from a single facility [5][10]. Group 3: Western Supply Chain Challenges - The article discusses the flawed nature of Western efforts to establish a rare earth supply chain, citing the limited rare earth reserves in Saudi Arabia and the reliance on China for processing [8]. - Companies like MP Materials are criticized for exporting a significant portion of their mined materials back to China for processing, undermining the goal of reducing dependence on Chinese supply [8]. - European companies face similar challenges, with high labor costs making local recycling efforts unviable compared to purchasing new materials from China [8]. Group 4: China's Dominance and Future Outlook - China's control over the rare earth supply chain is attributed to its unique "in-situ leaching" technology, which allows for efficient extraction without extensive mining [10]. - The article emphasizes that China holds over 4,000 rare earth patents, creating a significant barrier for competitors like Lynas to catch up [10]. - The Pentagon's concerns about dwindling rare earth inventories and the inability to meet production demands for military applications underscore the urgency of the situation, with potential implications for future defense capabilities [12].

Group 1 - Mianyang is focusing on attracting young talent to enhance its urban public services and create youth-friendly parks, with a significant increase in the number of skilled professionals moving to the city [6][7][8] - Over the past three years, Mianyang has attracted 86,000 talents, including over 15,000 master's and doctoral graduates, contributing to a projected increase of 11,000 permanent residents in 2024 [7][8] - The city aims to leverage its strengths in technology and industry to facilitate the transformation of new technologies into new industries, addressing the historical disconnect between research and industrial application [7][8] Group 2 - Mianyang has established a robust platform for innovation, with 28 signed projects in the nuclear medical health industry, totaling over 22.3 billion yuan in investment [7] - The magnetic materials industry in Mianyang is also developing, with companies like Juxing Permanent Magnet producing high-temperature resistant magnetic steel, expected to achieve a revenue of 2 billion yuan this year [7] - The Mianyang Technology City has launched a pilot service platform for rapid prototyping, which has attracted significant investment and interest from venture capital funds, indicating a growing ecosystem for startups [7][8] Group 3 - The city is implementing policies such as "bringing soil transplant" to encourage teams to carry their research achievements into entrepreneurship, retaining their original staffing for four years [7] - Mianyang's urban development has integrated youthful elements, transforming areas into vibrant cultural and recreational spaces, which has enhanced the city's appeal to young professionals [8] - The region's GDP growth has consistently ranked among the top three in the province over the past three years, reflecting the positive impact of innovation and talent influx [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tianhe Magnetic Materials (603072) reported its first annual results since listing, achieving a raw material output of over 10,400 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.51%, and total assets reaching 3.387 billion yuan, solidifying its position in the top tier of China's rare earth permanent magnet industry [1] Group 1: Production and Capacity - In 2024, the company’s raw material output reached 10,400 tons, representing a 23.51% year-on-year growth, positioning it among the industry leaders [2] - The release of production capacity has been a key support for performance, leveraging the full industry chain advantage from rare earth mining to deep processing in Baotou [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company has increased its R&D investment, achieving breakthroughs in key technology areas such as multi-component regulation and grain refinement, with its main products' magnetic performance and corrosion resistance reaching advanced domestic levels [3] - The dual-mode layout of "finished products + raw materials" has enabled the company to penetrate emerging fields like electric vehicle drive motors and low-altitude economy eVTOLs, with revenue from the electric vehicle and components business increasing to 63.38%, up 6.09% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Market Expansion - The company focuses on high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials, maintaining a business system driven by "neodymium-iron-boron as the mainstay and samarium-cobalt as a supplement," while expanding into new application areas such as electric vehicles, wind power, energy-efficient appliances, and robotics [4] - The low-altitude economy sector is expected to create a market demand of 10,000 tons by 2025, with energy-efficient air conditioning demand reaching 12,400 tons as penetration rates increase [4] - The company’s products have been certified by leading international clients like Bosch and Siemens, with nearly half of its revenue coming from overseas markets, indicating a successful global expansion [4] Group 4: Strategic Vision - In 2025, the company aims to be a leader in high-performance permanent magnet materials, focusing on R&D and technological innovation, while targeting applications in electric vehicles, wind power, smart manufacturing, and emerging industries [5] - The company is committed to implementing three main strategies: "technology-driven enterprise, intelligent manufacturing, and market diversification" to become a top global player in high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials [5]