Core Points - President Trump signed an executive order on July 31 to modify the "reciprocal tariff" policy, adjusting additional tariff rates on goods from multiple countries to address what the U.S. claims is a "national security emergency" due to long-standing trade deficits [1][2] - The new tariff rates include an increase for Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1, and a uniform 10% tariff for countries not listed in the executive order [2][6] - The order also stipulates a 40% tariff on goods found to be rerouted through third countries to evade tariffs, with a public "evasion list" updated semi-annually [1][2] Tariff Adjustments - For Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand, the tariff rate is set at 15% [1] - For EU countries, if the current tariff is below 15%, it will be raised to 15%, while those above 15% will not see additional increases [1] - The executive order is part of a broader series of tariff adjustments by the Trump administration [2] Specific Measures - An additional 50% tariff will be imposed on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper content derivatives starting August 1 [6][7] - From August 29, the U.S. will suspend the tax exemption for imported packages valued at $800 or less [6] - A 40% tariff will be applied to products imported from Brazil starting August 6, with certain exceptions for specific goods [7] Trade Negotiations - President Trump indicated that Canada's stance on Palestine will not affect the tariff agreement, emphasizing that Canada must "pay a fair tax rate" [4] - The U.S. and Mexico have agreed to extend their tariff agreement for 90 days, during which they will negotiate further [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has implemented a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, which diverges significantly from market expectations that anticipated tariffs on refined copper itself [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - As of August 1, the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, including copper tubes, wires, rods, and sheets [1][2]. - Refined copper, copper concentrates, and scrap copper are explicitly excluded from the tariff, which was a surprise to the market [1][2]. - The U.S. Commerce Department has suggested delaying tariffs on refined copper until 2027, with a proposed tax rate of 15% increasing to 30% by 2028 [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, CME copper futures prices plummeted over 20%, and the price premium of CME copper over LME copper narrowed significantly from nearly $1200 per ton to under $150 per ton [1][3]. - The influx of refined copper into the U.S. prior to the tariff implementation has led to a significant increase in CME warehouse inventories, reaching 232,195 tons, the highest level since 2004 [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Structural Challenges - The current U.S. smelting and processing capacity may not be sufficient to handle the increased copper supply, raising concerns about the ability to absorb new resources [4]. - The policy mandates that by 2027, 25% of domestic copper concentrates and recycled copper must be sold in the U.S., increasing to 40% within two years, which may create structural pressures on the existing system [4]. - Rising storage costs and insufficient export demand may force some metals to be re-exported, complicating the supply chain further [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the restructuring of the physical supply chain will take several months, and the possibility of copper flowing out of the U.S. is being reassessed by traders [6]. - It may take months for the supply chain to return to balance, indicating a prolonged adjustment period for the copper market [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1 [1] - The tariff is based on Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, affecting products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as derived products like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [1] - The majority of copper consumed in the U.S. is imported, and the tariffs are expected to increase costs for U.S. manufacturers without incentivizing appropriate economic behavior [1] Group 2 - Starting August 29, the U.S. will suspend the tax exemption for imported packages valued at $800 or less, requiring all applicable taxes to be paid [1] - From August 6, a 40% tariff will be imposed on products imported from Brazil, raising the tariff rate on most Brazilian products to 50%, with exceptions for certain items like aircraft, nuts, orange juice, and some metal products [2] - Brazilian officials have indicated that they may consider retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products if the U.S. tariffs are implemented, criticizing U.S. unilateralism and trade protectionism [2]