Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Recently, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled, and the macro atmosphere has weakened marginally. The non - ferrous sector is adjusting at a high level. The Shanghai aluminum price is running around 24,000, with a significantly narrower fluctuation range. The downstream procurement sentiment has improved due to the falling aluminum price, but high prices still suppress consumption, and the spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The domestic northern bauxite is in the early stage of复产, and the production rhythm is expected to accelerate after the two sessions. The subsequent bauxite price may still have room to fall. The new domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are still ramping up production. The overseas Mozambique aluminum plant has stopped production, but it will remain at full - capacity operation in Q1. The short - term supply pressure has increased slightly but is limited. On the demand side, high aluminum prices still suppress the terminal, but the aluminum processing start - up rate has rebounded slightly week - on - week due to the approaching Spring Festival and finished - product stocking demand. Currently, the aluminum price is still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. With the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase accumulated from the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price has a downward adjustment demand [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion - Macro environment: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled in January, and the market generally believes that there will be no interest - rate cut. The macro atmosphere has weakened marginally, and the non - ferrous sector is adjusting at a high level [8] - Aluminum price performance: On the 19th, the Shanghai aluminum price was running around 24,000, with a significantly narrower fluctuation range compared to the previous period [8] - Spot market: The downstream procurement sentiment has improved due to the falling aluminum price, but high prices still suppress consumption. The spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The East China discount is - 160, the Central China discount is - 290, and the South China discount is - 130 [8] - Supply side: The domestic northern bauxite is in the early stage of复产, and the production rhythm is expected to accelerate after the two sessions. Due to the compressed profits of alumina plants, the willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium is low, and the subsequent bauxite price may still have room to fall. The new domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are still ramping up production. The overseas Mozambique aluminum plant has stopped production, but it will remain at full - capacity operation in Q1. The short - term supply pressure has increased slightly but is limited. Although there are concerns about the shortage of power supply in Europe and the United States in the long term, it is not the dominant trading logic in the current market [8] - Demand side: High aluminum prices still suppress the terminal, but the aluminum processing start - up rate has rebounded slightly week - on - week due to the approaching Spring Festival and finished - product stocking demand [8] - Price trend: The aluminum price is still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. With the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase accumulated from the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price has a downward adjustment demand [8] Group 5: Industry News - "Aluminum replacing copper" in the air - conditioning industry: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, have jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. The cost of copper in a household air - conditioner accounts for more than half. The price difference between copper and aluminum is about three times. Some brand stores said they will launch aluminum household air - conditioner products as early as 2026, while others said they have no such plan [9] - Expansion of Lizhong Group: The second - phase 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels project of its Mexican factory has been initially put into production. The 3 - million - piece cast - spun aluminum alloy wheel production capacity of its third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory is expected to be put into production next year. The high - performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, Thailand, etc. will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year, which will improve the company's global production capacity layout and competitiveness [10] - Expansion of Nalco: The Indian state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support its integrated aluminum business expansion. It has awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the increased mining capacity, Nalco is expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina plant, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]

Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoints - On the 13th, the night session of Shanghai Aluminum continued to rise to the 25,000 mark and then declined for adjustment. The closing price at the end of the session dropped 0.85% to 24,375 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 20,000 lots to around 770,000 lots. The high aluminum price suppressed downstream procurement demand, and the overall trading sentiment of buyers declined compared with the previous trading day. The discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were -60, -220, and -45 respectively. [7] - In the short term, the overall supply of aluminum increased slightly. New projects in China and Indonesia continued to ramp up production, driving up the daily average output. Although the shutdown of an aluminum plant in Mozambique was finalized, it would still operate at full capacity in the first quarter, and the market had basically digested this news. [7] - High aluminum prices suppressed terminal demand. Downstream enterprises generally adopted strategies of delaying procurement and consuming inventories, and the weekly inventory quickly accumulated and exceeded the 700,000-ton mark. [7] - The operation logic of the aluminum market was still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. As copper and gold prices rose significantly, funds continued to buy relatively undervalued resource products, which supported the aluminum price to be more likely to rise than to fall. [7] Industry News - 19 air-conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation work of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards, triggering market discussions. Due to the continuous rise in copper prices, the price difference between copper and aluminum was about three times. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum household air-conditioning products as soon as 2026, while others had no such plan. [10] - Lizhong Group said that its production and operation had been stable in recent years, and the overall capacity utilization rate had gradually increased. The second phase of the 3.6 million ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheel project in its Mexican factory, with a capacity of 1.8 million, had achieved initial production. The third aluminum alloy wheel factory in Thailand, with an annual production capacity of 3 million cast-rotated aluminum alloy wheels, was expected to be put into production next year. The high-performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huaian, Changchun, Thailand, and other places would be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year. [10][11] - India's state-owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) planned to start the mining of the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support the expansion of its integrated aluminum business. It had awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the increase in mining capacity, Nalco was expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which would increase the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons. [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Research team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The macro atmosphere continues to improve, the A - share market has risen sharply to a ten - year high, and the industrial product sector has continued to strengthen. On the 6th, Shanghai aluminum continued to increase positions and prices, with the main contract 2602 closing at 24,335, a rise of 3.29%. The spot market is under pressure, with downstream processing enterprises' procurement demand being average due to high prices, mainly for small - scale replenishment of rigid needs. The market transactions are mostly for hedging purchases by traders. The domestic smelting enterprises have rich profits, and the operating capacity is increasing steadily. Overseas disturbances are frequent. The power contract renewal of a Mozambique aluminum plant has failed, affecting the production of 520,000 tons of capacity. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's capacity release. In terms of demand, the terminal is weak due to the traditional off - season, and the inventory has begun to accumulate under the dual pressure of environmental protection restrictions and high aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory has reached 684,000 tons at the beginning of the week. It is judged that in the medium term, aluminum prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall under the logic of the Fed's interest rate cut and loose liquidity and the strong support of gold and copper, and should be treated with a high - level and strong mindset. In the short term, the fundamental support is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market performance**: The macro environment is favorable, the A - share market hits a ten - year high, and the industrial product sector strengthens. On the 6th, Shanghai aluminum's main contract 2602 rose 3.29% to 24,335. The spot market is under pressure, with downstream procurement mainly for rigid needs and small - scale replenishment. The domestic smelting capacity is increasing steadily, while overseas has disturbances. The terminal demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [7] - **Operation suggestion**: In the medium term, maintain a high - level and strong view on aluminum prices. In the short term, with limited fundamental support, it is recommended to go long at low levels [7] Group 5: Industry News - **Aluminum substitution for copper**: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, have jointly launched the implementation of "aluminum substitution for copper" standards. Some brand stores plan to launch aluminum - made household air - conditioners in 2026, while others have no such plan [10] - **Company capacity expansion**: Lizhong Group's second - phase project of 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels in its Mexican factory has been initially put into production. The third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory's annual production capacity of 3 million cast - spun aluminum alloy wheels is expected to be put into operation next year. The high - performance aluminum alloy new material projects in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, and Thailand will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year. India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 and is expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The company has been steadily improving its production capacity utilization and is actively expanding its production capacity in the aluminum alloy wheel and casting aluminum alloy business segments, which will strengthen its leading position in the industry and lay a solid foundation for long-term development [1]. Group 1: Production Capacity and Utilization - The company reported a steady increase in overall production capacity utilization in recent years [1]. - The second phase of the ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheel project in Mexico, with a capacity of 1.8 million units, has begun initial production [1]. - The first phase of the planned 500,000 units forged aluminum wheel project, with a capacity of 200,000 units, has entered trial production [1]. Group 2: New Capacity Projects - The third aluminum alloy wheel factory in Thailand, with an annual production capacity of 3 million cast aluminum wheels and 180,000 high-end forged wheels, is expected to commence production next year [1]. - New high-performance aluminum alloy material projects in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, and Thailand are set to be launched between the fourth quarter of this year and next year [1]. - The completion of these new capacities will enhance the company's global capacity layout [1].