行业 铝日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 30 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 黄金大涨和宏观宏大叙事推动下有色板块表现持续亢奋，29 日沪铜增仓大 涨，最高站上 11 万继续刷新高点，沪铝跟随上涨最高逼近 2.6 万，2603 收盘报 25590 涨幅 2.92%，总持仓减少 4703 受至 80.5 万手，伦铝最高至 3341 美元/吨， 进口窗口保持关闭，收盘现货进口理论亏损-2000 元/吨。美联储 1 月议息会议维 持利率不变符合市场预期，美元维持贬值趋势，流动性持续宽松，同时美伊冲突 升级引发海外铝锭物流供应担忧 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On the 22nd, the aluminum price fluctuated narrowly with a decline followed by a rise. The main contract closed up 1.59% at 24,055 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 3,979 lots to 710,000 lots. The adjustment of aluminum price led to a slight improvement in the overall purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises, but they remained cautious. The spot premium/discount is expected to remain under pressure. The discount in East China was -150, -250 in Central China, and -115 in South China. [7] - A mine collapse in Guinea on the 21st caused casualties. Although it has not affected the production of the core bauxite mining areas in Guinea for the time being, it still had an emotional impact on the alumina market. On the 22nd, the futures price rebounded nearly 2% to 2,717 yuan/ton at a low level, but it is expected to mainly fluctuate widely at a low level under the suppression of the oversupply fundamentals. [7] - The supply side of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable. The new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia continued to increase production, but the short - term increment was limited. High aluminum prices still suppressed the end - users, but benefiting from the inventory preparation demand for finished products as the Spring Festival approached, the demand side still had some resilience. The continuous inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots put some pressure on the market. Currently, aluminum prices are still dominated by macro and capital factors. Due to the fluctuations in macro - sentiment and the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price adjustment should be treated with caution. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Aluminum price: The main contract of aluminum price rose 1.59% to 24,055 yuan/ton on the 22nd, with the total open interest decreasing by 3,979 lots to 710,000 lots. The adjustment of aluminum price improved the downstream purchasing sentiment slightly, but the spot premium/discount is under pressure. [7] - Alumina: The mine collapse in Guinea affected the alumina market sentiment. The futures price rebounded nearly 2% to 2,717 yuan/ton on the 22nd, and is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level due to the oversupply. [7] - Electrolytic aluminum supply and demand: The supply is basically stable with limited short - term increment. High prices suppress the end - users, but the demand has some resilience due to the Spring Festival inventory preparation. The inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots pressures the market. Aluminum prices are dominated by macro and capital factors, and short - term adjustment is expected. [7] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Mine collapse in Guinea: On January 21, 2026, a mechanized mine in the Doko mining area of Siguiri Province, Guinea, collapsed, causing 6 miners to die. The accident is in the gold - mining area, about 800 kilometers away from the core bauxite mining area, and has not affected the bauxite production for the time being. [8][10] - "Aluminum replacing copper" in the air - conditioning industry: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum - made household air - conditioning products as early as 2026, while others had no such plan. [10] - Production cut by Rio Tinto: Rio Tinto will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation life to 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs. [10] - Mining plan of Nalco: India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is also expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons. [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 22, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the sharp decline of European and American stock markets led to a rise in market risk aversion, causing the aluminum price to drop to a minimum of 23,660 yuan/ton. However, during the domestic daytime, the market sentiment remained relatively high, and the aluminum price rebounded above 24,000 yuan. The main contract 2603 closed at 24,155 yuan, with a gain of 0.56%. The total open interest increased by 15,000 lots to 714,000 lots [7]. - The adjustment of aluminum price has driven the overall purchasing sentiment of downstream industries to warm up, but the overall attitude remains cautious. The spot premium is expected to continue to be under pressure. The premium in East China was -150 yuan, -250 yuan in Central China, and -115 yuan in South China [7]. - The prices of domestic and overseas ores continued to operate weakly at a low level. The oversupply pressure of alumina remained unchanged, and the price continued to decline [7]. - The supply side of electrolytic aluminum remained stable. The new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia continued to increase production, but the short-term increment was limited. The high aluminum price still inhibited the terminal demand. However, benefiting from the demand for finished product inventory preparation as the Spring Festival approached, the demand side still had a certain degree of resilience. The continuous inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots put some pressure on the market [7]. - Currently, the aluminum price is still dominated by macro and capital factors. Due to the fluctuation of macro sentiment and the previous rapid rise, the aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The aluminum price was affected by the sharp decline of European and American stock markets overnight, but rebounded during the domestic daytime. The main contract closed with a gain, and the open interest increased [7]. - The purchasing sentiment of downstream industries improved, but remained cautious. The spot premium was under pressure [7]. - The prices of domestic and overseas ores and alumina continued to decline [7]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum was stable, and the demand had some resilience. The inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots put pressure on the market [7]. - The short-term aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust [7]. 2. Industry News - Nineteen air-conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation work of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards, which triggered market discussions. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum-made household air-conditioning products as early as 2026, while others had no such plan [8]. - Lizhong Group said that its production and operation had been stable in recent years, and the overall capacity utilization rate had gradually increased. The second phase of the 3.6 million ultra-lightweight aluminum alloy wheel project in its Mexican factory with a capacity of 1.8 million had been initially put into production. The third factory in Thailand with an annual production capacity of 3 million cast-rotated aluminum alloy wheels was expected to be put into production next year. The high-performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huaian, Changchun, Thailand and other places would be put into production successively from the fourth quarter of this year to next year [10]. - India's state-owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start the mining of the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support the expansion of its integrated aluminum business. The company has awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the improvement of mining capacity, Nalco is expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Recently, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled, and the macro atmosphere has weakened marginally. The non - ferrous sector is adjusting at a high level. The Shanghai aluminum price is running around 24,000, with a significantly narrower fluctuation range. The downstream procurement sentiment has improved due to the falling aluminum price, but high prices still suppress consumption, and the spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The domestic northern bauxite is in the early stage of复产, and the production rhythm is expected to accelerate after the two sessions. The subsequent bauxite price may still have room to fall. The new domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are still ramping up production. The overseas Mozambique aluminum plant has stopped production, but it will remain at full - capacity operation in Q1. The short - term supply pressure has increased slightly but is limited. On the demand side, high aluminum prices still suppress the terminal, but the aluminum processing start - up rate has rebounded slightly week - on - week due to the approaching Spring Festival and finished - product stocking demand. Currently, the aluminum price is still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. With the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase accumulated from the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price has a downward adjustment demand [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion - Macro environment: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled in January, and the market generally believes that there will be no interest - rate cut. The macro atmosphere has weakened marginally, and the non - ferrous sector is adjusting at a high level [8] - Aluminum price performance: On the 19th, the Shanghai aluminum price was running around 24,000, with a significantly narrower fluctuation range compared to the previous period [8] - Spot market: The downstream procurement sentiment has improved due to the falling aluminum price, but high prices still suppress consumption. The spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The East China discount is - 160, the Central China discount is - 290, and the South China discount is - 130 [8] - Supply side: The domestic northern bauxite is in the early stage of复产, and the production rhythm is expected to accelerate after the two sessions. Due to the compressed profits of alumina plants, the willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium is low, and the subsequent bauxite price may still have room to fall. The new domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are still ramping up production. The overseas Mozambique aluminum plant has stopped production, but it will remain at full - capacity operation in Q1. The short - term supply pressure has increased slightly but is limited. Although there are concerns about the shortage of power supply in Europe and the United States in the long term, it is not the dominant trading logic in the current market [8] - Demand side: High aluminum prices still suppress the terminal, but the aluminum processing start - up rate has rebounded slightly week - on - week due to the approaching Spring Festival and finished - product stocking demand [8] - Price trend: The aluminum price is still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. With the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase accumulated from the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price has a downward adjustment demand [8] Group 5: Industry News - "Aluminum replacing copper" in the air - conditioning industry: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, have jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. The cost of copper in a household air - conditioner accounts for more than half. The price difference between copper and aluminum is about three times. Some brand stores said they will launch aluminum household air - conditioner products as early as 2026, while others said they have no such plan [9] - Expansion of Lizhong Group: The second - phase 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels project of its Mexican factory has been initially put into production. The 3 - million - piece cast - spun aluminum alloy wheel production capacity of its third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory is expected to be put into production next year. The high - performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, Thailand, etc. will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year, which will improve the company's global production capacity layout and competitiveness [10] - Expansion of Nalco: The Indian state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support its integrated aluminum business expansion. It has awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the increased mining capacity, Nalco is expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina plant, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Research team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The macro atmosphere continues to improve, the A - share market has risen sharply to a ten - year high, and the industrial product sector has continued to strengthen. On the 6th, Shanghai aluminum continued to increase positions and prices, with the main contract 2602 closing at 24,335, a rise of 3.29%. The spot market is under pressure, with downstream processing enterprises' procurement demand being average due to high prices, mainly for small - scale replenishment of rigid needs. The market transactions are mostly for hedging purchases by traders. The domestic smelting enterprises have rich profits, and the operating capacity is increasing steadily. Overseas disturbances are frequent. The power contract renewal of a Mozambique aluminum plant has failed, affecting the production of 520,000 tons of capacity. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's capacity release. In terms of demand, the terminal is weak due to the traditional off - season, and the inventory has begun to accumulate under the dual pressure of environmental protection restrictions and high aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory has reached 684,000 tons at the beginning of the week. It is judged that in the medium term, aluminum prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall under the logic of the Fed's interest rate cut and loose liquidity and the strong support of gold and copper, and should be treated with a high - level and strong mindset. In the short term, the fundamental support is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market performance**: The macro environment is favorable, the A - share market hits a ten - year high, and the industrial product sector strengthens. On the 6th, Shanghai aluminum's main contract 2602 rose 3.29% to 24,335. The spot market is under pressure, with downstream procurement mainly for rigid needs and small - scale replenishment. The domestic smelting capacity is increasing steadily, while overseas has disturbances. The terminal demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [7] - **Operation suggestion**: In the medium term, maintain a high - level and strong view on aluminum prices. In the short term, with limited fundamental support, it is recommended to go long at low levels [7] Group 5: Industry News - **Aluminum substitution for copper**: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, have jointly launched the implementation of "aluminum substitution for copper" standards. Some brand stores plan to launch aluminum - made household air - conditioners in 2026, while others have no such plan [10] - **Company capacity expansion**: Lizhong Group's second - phase project of 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels in its Mexican factory has been initially put into production. The third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory's annual production capacity of 3 million cast - spun aluminum alloy wheels is expected to be put into operation next year. The high - performance aluminum alloy new material projects in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, and Thailand will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year. India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 and is expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10][11]

1. Report Industry and Date - The report is about the aluminum industry, specifically an "Aluminum Daily Report" [1] - The report date is January 6, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - The non-ferrous metals research team includes Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3] 3. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Despite the lack of news in the aluminum market after the New Year's Day holiday due to the US raid on Venezuela, both LME and SHFE aluminum prices continued to rise in a macro - optimistic atmosphere. LME aluminum exceeded and stood above $3000, and SHFE aluminum rose by over 4% to 23,645 yuan/ton on the first trading day after the holiday, with total positions increasing by more than 45,000 lots to 711,000 lots [8] - Spot trading was sluggish due to high aluminum prices. The discounts in East China were - 220, in Central China were - 450, and in South China were - 280 [8] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting industry maintained high profits, leading to a slight increase in domestic operating capacity. Overseas disruptions were frequent, such as the uncertain renewal of the power contract of a Mozambique aluminum plant. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesian capacity expansion [8] - The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was weakened by environmental restrictions and high aluminum prices, especially in core consumption areas like Central China where environmental control was tightened, leading to direct shrinkage of spot demand and a rapid increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventories to 684,000 tons [8] - In the medium term, aluminum prices are likely to rise due to loose liquidity and the strong performance of the gold and copper sectors. After the holiday, the enthusiasm of SHFE aluminum funds for long positions was ignited. It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices, although short - term fundamental support is limited [8] 4. Industry News - Nineteen air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of "aluminum replacing copper" standards. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum household air - conditioning products in 2026 at the earliest, while others had no such plan [9] - Lizhong Group's Mexican factory's second - phase project of 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels has been initially put into production. The third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory's annual production capacity of 3 million cast - spun aluminum alloy wheels is expected to be put into production next year. High - performance aluminum alloy new material projects in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, and Thailand will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year [10] - India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10] - In the first 11 months of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were both close to 15 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 30%. New energy vehicle exports reached 2.315 million, doubling year - on - year [10]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum Price: On the 30th, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The main contract 2602 closed at 22,565, a slight increase of 0.13% from the previous day. The total position decreased by more than 22,000 lots to 655,000 lots [7]. - Spot Premium: Affected by the year - end settlement of enterprises, the trading sentiment in East China weakened, and the market liquidity was generally low. The spot premium was still under pressure. The discount in East China was - 310, in Central China was - 330, and in South China was - 320 [7]. - Supply: The domestic aluminum industry maintained a high - profit level, and the domestic operating capacity increased steadily but slightly under the stimulation of high profits. The supply pressure was generally limited due to the production capacity ceiling. Overseas, attention should be paid to the production reduction risk of Mozambique aluminum plants and the progress of Indonesia's capacity expansion [7]. - Demand: The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was further weakened by environmental protection restrictions and high aluminum prices, and the inventory showed an inflection point of accumulation [7]. - Price Outlook: In the medium term, aluminum prices are likely to rise due to loose liquidity and the strong performance of the gold and copper sectors. In the short term, the probability of high - level adjustment increases due to the fluctuating macro - atmosphere and limited fundamental drivers. It is advisable to control risks with light positions during the holiday [7]. Group 3: Industry News - Aluminum Substitution for Copper: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum substitution for copper" series of standards. Some brands plan to launch aluminum - made household air - conditioning products as early as 2026, while others have no such plan [10]. - Company Capacity Expansion: Lizhong Group's second - phase project of 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels in its Mexican factory has been initially put into production. The third factory in Thailand with an annual production capacity of 3 million cast - spun aluminum alloy wheels is expected to be put into production next year. New high - performance aluminum alloy material projects in Chongqing, Huaian, Changchun, and Thailand will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year [10][11]. - Mining Plan: India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, increasing the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [11]. - Automobile Industry: In the first 11 months, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were close to 15 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 30%. New energy vehicle exports reached 2.315 million, doubling year - on - year [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals have limited driving force for aluminum prices, and the market continues to be dominated by macro - logic. Aluminum prices will maintain high - level volatile operation [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai aluminum fluctuated around the 22,000 level during the day. The 2602 contract closed at 21,955 at the end of the session, up 0.25% slightly [7] - Domestically - produced ore is tightening, but the ore price may still weaken under the environment of alumina losses and high inventory. The price of Guinea ore remains low. Alumina prices rose first and then fell, with a technical rebound demand after continuous decline, but the space may be limited due to over - supply [7] - The smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and the operating capacity of the industry has increased slightly. The short - term supply at home and abroad remains stable. The demand side has weakened seasonally as the off - season deepens, but there is still resilience in the consumer side due to some downstream rush - work at the end of the year. The aluminum ingot inventory has not continued to accumulate this week, but the inventory accumulation pressure after the improvement of Xinjiang's shipping efficiency needs to be vigilant [7] 3.2行业要闻 - 19 air - conditioning enterprises and scientific research institutions such as Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. Some brand stores said they will launch aluminum - made household air - conditioning products as soon as 2026, while others have no such plan [10] - Lizhong Group's second - phase project of 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels in its Mexican factory has been initially put into production. The third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory's annual production capacity of 3 million cast - spun aluminum alloy wheels is expected to be put into production next year. New high - performance aluminum alloy new material projects in Chongqing, Huaian, Changchun, Thailand and other places will be put into production from this fourth quarter to next year [10][11] - India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [11] - In the first 11 months of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were both close to 15 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 30%. New energy vehicle exports reached 2.315 million, doubling year - on - year [11]