交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（2.24~2.27） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周震荡上行，上周主力合约上涨2.76%，周五收盘报23835元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，需求可以关注铝代铜带来增量。国内基本面上，需求处于淡季，关注后期消 费变化。上周LME库存465550吨，较前周出现小幅减少，SHFE周库存增58546吨至355985吨。 数据来源：Wind 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

以下。2026 年两类产品出货量预计增长，取决于重庆二期热轧机运行 情况。 华峰铝业 20260227 摘要 2025 年公司经营稳健，月均销量约 4 万吨，全年合计约 48-50 万吨。 2026 年核心在于推进重庆二期项目，部分工段、机台将产生调试产量， 旨在通过规模效应降成本，回收委外产能，聚焦热传输优势领域，扩大 产品规模并完善品类结构。 2026 年加工费整体延续下行趋势，传统主流产品加工费降幅预计高于 往年，平均降幅约 5%，因行业扩产加剧低价竞争。新产品如高强度水 冷板价格相对坚挺。公司将通过产品升级、新产品研发与降本增效对冲 加工费下滑，稳定盈利。 储能业务占比难以准确拆分，因部分客户同时覆盖储能与汽车应用。汽 车业务附加值与加工费高于储能，高端汽车产品加工费可达 8,000– 9,000 元/吨，储能产品通常在 5,000–7,000 元/吨区间。受产能约束， 公司曾放弃部分储能订单。 2025 年高强度水冷板（第三代）已量产并爬坡，2026 年将推进第四代 水冷板市场导入。预埋钎剂因占用热轧机产能，2025 年出货量低于预 期，不到 1 万吨。CTP 新品（水冷板方向）2025 年出货规模 ...

主要股东高瓴资本计划减持2%的股份，格力电器（000651.SZ）应声下跌。 格力电器2月25日晚间披露此事后，26日上午下跌2.1%，报收37.68元，成交21.53亿元，最新总市值 2110亿元。高瓴资本2019年入股时的投资成本为46元，期间投资回报主要来自分红，但格力电器股价同 期却下跌了近20%，考虑到融资成本等因素，高瓴资本的总体投资回报率一般。 业内人士认为，7年的投资时间已经较长，高瓴资本减持后持股比例依然较高。从基本面来看，2025年 下半年，格力电器空调销量并不理想，虽然有更新需求主导，但也依然受制于房地产，而且成本还遇到 了铜价暴涨，业绩可能两头受压，总市值能不能守住2000亿元大关有一定疑问。 格力电器1月5日层表示，该公司近期陆续收到部分企业推出空调涨价和'铝代铜'计划等相关问题的咨 询，并询问公司对此的态度和计划。该公司承诺，家用空调不涨价，而且暂无'铝代铜'计划。未来若相 关研究能完全满足质量和技术标准要求并正式应用，该公司将明确标注，充分保障消费者的知情权与选 择权。 稍早些时候的2025年12月29日，该公司还在投资者互动平台称，公司关注主要原材料的价格走势，并制 定相应的管 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices fluctuated within a narrow range during the day, with significantly lower volatility compared to the previous period. The main contract 2603 closed at 23,515, down slightly by 0.3%. The import window remained closed, with a theoretical loss of -2,300 yuan/ton for spot imports at the close. The cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with a negative AD - AL spread of -1,395 yuan/ton at the close. Alumina adjusted oscillatingly during the day, temporarily remaining above 2,800. As centralized maintenance ends, the industry's operating rate is expected to rise again. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and political disturbances in Guinea. There were limited changes in the electrolytic aluminum supply. Downstream industries have basically entered the holiday period, with the operating rate of processing enterprises decreasing. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased to 857,000 tons on Monday, with the inventory accumulation rate exceeding the seasonal level of previous years and reaching a three - year high. As the long holiday approaches, funds tend to be cautious, and the volatility of the non - ferrous sector has significantly decreased. The demand is in the off - season, and the high prices have suppressed demand, resulting in insufficient support. It should be treated as a short - term adjustment. As the long holiday is approaching, it is advisable to observe more and act less, and pay attention to macro - pricing and the realization of post - holiday demand expectations [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum price: The main 2603 contract closed at 23,515, down 0.3%. The import window remained closed with a theoretical loss of -2,300 yuan/ton for spot imports. The AD - AL spread of cast aluminum alloy was -1,395 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated above 2,800 [7] - Supply and demand: The electrolytic aluminum supply changed little. Downstream industries were in the holiday, and the operating rate of processing enterprises declined. The social inventory of aluminum ingots reached 857,000 tons on Monday, with inventory accumulation exceeding the seasonal level of previous years [7] - Suggestion: As the long holiday approaches, funds are cautious, the non - ferrous sector's volatility decreases, and demand support is insufficient. It should be treated as a short - term adjustment. Observe more and act less, and focus on macro - pricing and post - holiday demand expectations [7] 3.2. Industry News - Mozambique: The government is making every effort to ensure the continued operation of South32's Mozal aluminum smelter. South32 plans to maintain the plant by March due to a failure to reach a power supply agreement, incurring a one - off cost of $60 million [8] - Fujian: The Fujian Development and Reform Commission announced 1,570 provincial key projects in 2026, with a total investment of 4.01 trillion yuan and an annual planned investment of 722.6 billion yuan. There are 6 aluminum - related projects [10] - "Aluminum Replacing Copper": 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. Some brands plan to launch aluminum household air - conditioning products in 2026, while others have no such plans [10] - Rio Tinto: It will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation until 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs [10] - India: National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, increasing the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices have been on the rise since November last year, with significant increases noted in early 2023, driven by expanding demand in various industries and insufficient production capacity to meet this demand [1] Industry Summary - Aluminum prices reached a historical high, with the Shanghai aluminum futures contract surpassing 25,000 yuan/ton for the first time on January 13, 2023, and fluctuating at high levels thereafter [1] - As of February 5, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 23,455 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of approximately 7.94% from 21,730 yuan/ton in early December 2025 [1] - London aluminum prices rose from 2,800 USD/ton in early December 2025 to 3,059 USD/ton in early February 2026, marking a growth of about 9.25% [1] - China remains the largest producer and consumer of aluminum globally, with the expansion of downstream applications contributing to the rising prices [1] - Emerging industries such as electric vehicles and photovoltaic energy storage are significantly boosting aluminum consumption, leading to a continuous expansion of application scenarios [1] - The trend of "aluminum replacing copper" in sectors like home appliances and AI computing is entering a phase of large-scale application, further releasing market demand for aluminum [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jintian Co. is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 700-800 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.50%-73.14% [1] Financial Performance - The median profit estimate is 750 million yuan, which is 1.8% higher than the consensus forecast of 737 million yuan [1] - The company is making progress in high value-added product expansion, product structure optimization, and improvement in profitability [1] Share Buyback Plan - The company plans to implement a share buyback using 200-400 million yuan from January 27, 2026, to January 26, 2027 [1] - The repurchased shares will be used entirely for the conversion of convertible bonds (Jintian Convertible Bonds) and will not be used for capital reduction or equity incentives [1] - This buyback reflects the company's confidence in long-term development and steady optimization of its capital structure [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is accelerating the introduction of high-end copper-based materials in the overseas market for computing heat dissipation, leading to a rapid increase in sales and significant improvement in profitability [1] - Fluctuations in copper prices have a limited impact on the company's profitability, as it actively explores the "aluminum replacing copper" direction, optimizing the gross profit structure and enhancing the ability to hedge against copper price volatility [1] Investment Rating - The company maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 7.0 to 8.0 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.50% to 73.14% [6] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, reflecting confidence in long-term development and steady optimization of its capital structure [6] - The company's high-end copper-based materials are rapidly gaining traction in the overseas market for computing heat dissipation, with significant sales growth [6] - The fluctuation of copper prices has a limited impact on the company's profitability due to its pricing model based on processing fees rather than copper prices [6] - The company is actively exploring "aluminum replacing copper" strategies to optimize its profit structure and enhance its ability to hedge against copper price volatility [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 110.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 153.6 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.1% [5][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 527 million yuan in 2023 to 1.186 billion yuan in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 53.9% in 2025 [5][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.30 yuan in 2023 to 0.80 yuan in 2027 [5][8] - The company's gross margin is anticipated to improve gradually from 2.3% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2027 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 6.4% in 2023 to 10.3% in 2027 [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 7.0 to 8.0 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.50% to 73.14% [6]. - The implementation of share buybacks reflects the company's confidence in its long-term development and is part of a strategy to optimize its capital structure [6]. - The company's high-end copper-based materials are rapidly gaining traction in the overseas market, particularly in the computing cooling sector, with a significant increase in sales [6]. - The pricing model for the company's products is based on "copper price + processing fee," which mitigates the impact of copper price fluctuations on profitability [6]. - The company is actively pursuing "aluminum replacing copper" strategies to enhance its profit margins and counteract copper price volatility [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 110.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 153.6 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.1% [5][8]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 527 million yuan, with projections of 711 million yuan in 2025 and 1.186 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting significant growth rates of 53.9% and 18.7% respectively [5][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.30 yuan in 2023 to 0.80 yuan in 2027 [5][8]. - The company's gross margin is anticipated to improve gradually from 2.3% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2027 [5][8]. - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 6.4% in 2023 to 10.3% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - Gree Electric Appliances emphasizes that copper is a core raw material for air conditioners, accounting for approximately 20% of the total cost, and currently has no plans to replace copper with aluminum due to performance and reliability concerns [1] Group 1: Material Cost Analysis - Copper constitutes about 20% of the cost of air conditioners, highlighting its significance in manufacturing [1] - Aluminum costs approximately 1/12 of copper in terms of material cost, with a price ratio of about 1/4 and a density ratio of about 1/3 [1] Group 2: Performance and Reliability Concerns - The company notes that aluminum falls short in several critical parameters compared to copper, including melting point, thermal conductivity, resistivity, corrosion resistance, and long-term reliability [1] - Due to these performance and quality concerns, the company currently has no plans to implement aluminum as a substitute for copper [1] Group 3: Research and Industry Monitoring - The company is committed to researching aluminum substitution technology and continues to monitor industry trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Jingda's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was under pressure due to order confirmation timing, but the fourth quarter saw a revenue increase of over 30% quarter-on-quarter, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth. The company aims for a year-on-year growth of over 20%-30% in 2026, driven by factors such as the appliance replacement policy, overseas exports, and the consolidation of Wuxi Weiyan [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Growth Targets - The company reported a significant improvement in the fourth quarter, with revenue and profit both showing positive trends [3]. - The 2026 annual operating target is set for a conservative year-on-year growth of 20%-30% [3]. - Orders are expected to continue growing, following a record high in 2025, primarily due to the growth in heat exchange and new energy equipment [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Product Development - The trend of replacing copper with aluminum is beneficial for the company, particularly for microchannel equipment suitable for aluminum materials [4]. - The company is collaborating with leading domestic temperature control enterprises, such as Invec, to develop new products and enhance liquid cooling technology [5][6]. - The company plans to increase R&D investment in liquid cooling and establish a joint R&D team with clients to tackle technical challenges [5]. Group 3: North American Market Expansion - Wuxi Weiyan has become the only non-local mold supplier in North America for the company, facilitating significant orders, including over $10 million from Canadian clients for liquid cooling applications [7][10]. - The company is leveraging its position in the North American market to drive growth, with expectations of high growth rates [10]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives and Acquisitions - The company has established a new division focused on emerging industries such as robotics, planning to develop screw devices and hollow cups, and considering mergers and acquisitions [2][11]. - The company is actively looking for acquisition targets, supported by its major shareholder, Tongshang Holdings Group [2][12].