Core Concept - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the "collaboration" between assets in investment allocation, which is mathematically represented by "correlation" [3][4]. Asset Allocation Principles - Ideal investment portfolios should consist of assets with varying correlations: assets with a correlation close to +1 move together, those with a correlation close to -1 move inversely, and those with a correlation close to 0 operate independently [4]. - The modern portfolio theory proposed by Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz suggests that scientific diversification can significantly reduce risk without sacrificing returns [4]. Mathematical Framework - For perfectly negatively correlated assets (correlation of -1), the allocation ratio should be inversely proportional to their volatility. If two funds have the same volatility, equal allocation is appropriate [5][7]. - If the volatilities differ, the allocation should favor the asset with lower volatility. For example, if Fund A has a volatility of 10% and Fund B has 30%, the optimal allocation would be 75% in Fund A and 25% in Fund B [7]. - For assets with a correlation close to 0, the allocation ratio should be inversely proportional to the square of their volatility. This allows for optimization of the risk-return profile even among uncorrelated assets [10][13]. Investment Insights - Including negatively correlated assets in a portfolio can effectively reduce overall volatility. While perfectly negatively correlated assets are rare, seeking low or negatively correlated assets remains a valid strategy for optimizing investment portfolios [9]. - The article illustrates that even with uncorrelated assets, appropriate weight allocation can enhance the risk-return ratio. For instance, a combination of five uncorrelated assets can reduce volatility significantly compared to individual assets [15]. Addressing Concerns about Returns - The article argues that proper asset allocation does not diminish returns; rather, it can stabilize and enhance them. The key is to select high-performing assets rather than diversifying for the sake of it [17]. - Examples provided include combining U.S. stocks with A-shares, both of which have long-term annualized returns of around 8-10%, resulting in a stable combined return while reducing volatility [17]. Practical Guidelines for Portfolio Construction - Step 1: Diversify across major asset classes such as stocks (high long-term returns, high volatility), bonds (stable returns, low volatility), and commodities (inflation hedge) [21]. - Step 2: Diversify by region and strategy, investing in various markets and styles to mitigate risks [21]. - Step 3: Regularly rebalance the portfolio to maintain the desired asset allocation, selling portions of assets that have appreciated significantly and buying those that have declined [21].

Core Insights - The essence of stock investment returns is derived from the intrinsic return rate of assets, which is based on fundamental and valuation analysis [1] - The current investment strategy emphasizes a barbell approach, focusing on low-volatility dividend stocks for defense and key sectors like internet and non-ferrous metals for offense [1] - The necessity for short-term monetary policy adjustments appears to be decreasing, but the fundamental win rate for bond assets remains [1] Investment Strategy - The investment manager does not base returns on predictions of market, competitors, or policy changes, but acknowledges their impact on short-term asset prices [1] - A diverse underlying asset selection is crucial, incorporating different style factors such as growth and value [1] - The current portfolio is underweight in low-volatility dividend and quality dividend sectors, with a focus on business model certainty and valuation cost-effectiveness [1] Asset Allocation - The defensive side of the portfolio continues to favor low-volatility dividend stocks as a solid defensive asset [1] - On the offensive side, there is a focus on leading companies in the internet sector, non-ferrous metals, and a small number of cyclical industries, with future opportunities tied to industry supply-demand fundamentals and improving industry conditions [1] - Long-duration bonds remain a good allocation choice under the barbell strategy, although the overall yield potential has significantly narrowed compared to last year, necessitating careful consideration of risk-reward ratios [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cost-effectiveness of long-term interest rate bonds has improved recently as the equity market sentiment has warmed up, leading to a narrow fluctuation in the bond market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The bond market has entered a phase of narrow fluctuations, with 10-year and 30-year government bonds struggling to break previous lows [1] - Credit bonds and local government bonds have shown relatively strong performance, indicating a shift in investor preference during uncertain benchmark interest rate conditions [1] Group 2: Investment Insights - The compression of yield spreads has become a less significant obstacle in the current market environment [1] - From a comparative perspective, the cost-effectiveness of long-term interest rate bonds has seen a recovery [1]