2026 年军工行业的整体发展趋势如何？ 内外需共振，看好军工板块价值重估 20260108 摘要 美国国防预算大幅提升（2027 年预计达 1.5 万亿美元），将刺激全球 军工及军贸市场扩张，中国作为武器装备供给大国受益。 国际局势变化（如委内瑞拉、俄罗斯油船事件）提升各国军事力量建设 需求，俄乌冲突削弱俄罗斯军贸优势，为中国军贸发展提供机遇，中国 武器装备经实战检验性能优越。 军贸业务毛利率显著高于内销，外销市场化定价高于国内，发展军贸业 务能优化企业财务报表，提高盈利能力。关注飞机、无人机主机平台、 雷达类及制导装备方向标的。 国内大飞机国产化至关重要，C919 正稳步提升交付能力，关注供应商 大会及产能扩建进展。机身和机翼等结构部件已基本实现国产化，但机 载系统和发动机仍处于国产化替代过程中。 商业航天迎来政策、技术及资本多重拐点，是中美竞争焦点领域之一。 预计 2026 年国内商业航天从导入期向成长初期过渡，卫星招标订单有 望较 2025 年增长 10 倍以上。 Q&A 2026 年是"十五规划"的开局之年，随着规划的逐步落地和执行，整个军工 行业需求和运行情况正在恢复。全球安全形势快速变化，各国对 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The commercial aviation engine market in China has significant potential, with a projected total demand of 2.6 trillion RMB over the next 20 years, averaging 130 billion RMB annually [1][3] - The global commercial aviation engine market is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, with GE, Pratt & Whitney, and Rolls-Royce, along with their joint ventures, holding a 97% market share [1][5][10] - The aviation engine industry chain includes upstream raw materials (titanium alloys, high-temperature alloys), midstream component manufacturing, stealth coatings, control systems, and final assembly [1][6] Key Points - The urgent need for self-sufficiency in commercial aviation engines is driven by reliance on imported engines for domestic aircraft like the C919, which poses a supply risk [2][10] - The short nacelle system in commercial aviation engines accounts for 25% of the total value of the aircraft propulsion system, with thrust reversers making up half of that value [1][11] - The domestic market for new aircraft is estimated at 130 billion RMB annually, with the short nacelle system market exceeding 30 billion RMB [1][11] Market Dynamics - The global demand for commercial aviation engines is estimated at approximately 13 trillion RMB over the next 20 years, averaging 650 billion RMB annually [3] - CFM International, a joint venture between GE and Safran, has a significant technological advantage in the narrow-body aircraft segment, with the LEAP engine accumulating a large order backlog despite delivery delays [9][10] Development Progress - Chinese aviation engine manufacturers are accelerating self-research and development, with products like the Changjiang 1,000 and Changjiang 2000 currently in development [1][10] - The Changjiang 1,000 is designed for narrow-body aircraft, while the Changjiang 2000 is intended for wide-body aircraft with a takeoff thrust exceeding 35,000 kg [1][10] Additional Insights - The commercial aerospace capabilities are emerging, significantly impacting national defense systems, allowing defense departments to purchase space launch capabilities and commercial satellite constellations [3][26] - The rise of commercial space capabilities is expected to enhance national space capabilities, with companies like SpaceX leading advancements in low Earth orbit satellite deployment [26][27]