固收专题： 短端信用债的确定性或更强 2025 年 08 月 26 日 ➢ 债市对基本面钝化，震荡期把握阶段性机会比博弈单边趋势更重要。近期债 市频繁调整，整体走势震荡偏弱，7 月信贷负增长、经济数据也显示需求进一步 放缓、资金面整体宽松等利好并未债市形成实质性利好，再加上权益赚钱效应维 持较强的状态，债市对基本面信息钝化，近期主要是风险偏好主导交易情绪。如 果债市再度遇到负反馈、资金持续流出等情况，不排除之后存在冲高的可能性， 因此当前信用债的整体思路建议以防守为主，将久期控制在较低水平，即使后市 依然维持高位偏弱震荡，中短期限的信用债防御性也相对更好。 ➢ 低利率大环境下，信用债收益率的调整规律发生转变，相较于长端品种，短 端收益率抗跌属性凸显。随着债市持续低位震荡，市场情绪偏谨慎，一旦有利空 因素出现，投资者更倾向于卖出长债调整仓位，通过压降久期保持流动性。以今 年 7 月以来的信用债变动情况来看，1 年期和 3 年期 AAA-中短票分别上行 3BP 和 11BP，但 10 年期和 15 年期 AAA-中短票则分别上行 14BP 和 16BP，尤其 是 3 年期及以内的信用债"抗跌性"更强。 ➢ 中短久 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term credit bonds have different performance characteristics in different market conditions. In a bear market, long - term credit bonds have better anti - decline performance, while in a bull market, they have higher comprehensive returns. In a volatile market, 5 - 7Y bonds perform better in terms of returns [2][3][25]. - Different types of institutional investors can choose different long - term credit bond investment strategies according to their own needs. For example, institutions with higher requirements for subject qualifications and liquidity management can focus on medium - term notes, while institutions with stable liability ends can consider increasing long - term credit bonds [5][6][61]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Long - term Credit Bond Advantages 3.1.1 Yield Fluctuation Range - In a bull market, short - term credit bonds perform better, while in a bear market, long - term credit bonds have stronger anti - decline performance. This is affected by liquidity and investor structure [2][16]. - Among different credit bond varieties, long - term general credit bonds have stronger anti - decline performance than long - term secondary perpetual bonds [3][17]. 3.1.2 Interval Return - In a bull market, long - term credit bonds have outstanding comprehensive returns, while in a bear market, their returns are slightly lower than short - term varieties. In a volatile market, 5 - 7Y bonds have better returns [25]. - Among different credit bond varieties, 5 - 7Y secondary capital bonds are more likely to underperform general credit bonds in a bull market, and since 2021, secondary capital bonds have mostly underperformed general credit bonds in a bear market [26]. 3.1.3 Liquidity Perspective - In terms of maturity, the 9 - 10Y long - term credit bonds have relatively better liquidity among long - term bonds. In terms of variety, medium - term notes have higher turnover rates regardless of market conditions or maturity, and short - term (within 5Y) secondary perpetual bonds are more sensitive to market conditions [4][43][45]. 3.1.4 Institutional Trading Behavior - Insurance companies are the main stable net buyers of long - term credit bonds, and other product - type institutions such as securities asset management, social security funds, and pension funds can also form a liquidity cushion with insurance companies [4][51]. 3.2 How to Invest in Long - term Credit Bonds - Due to the expected volatile bond market in May, short - term varieties have higher short - term certainty. However, long - term credit bonds have certain allocation value for institutional investors with stable liability ends who want to increase returns through duration strategies [5][54]. - Institutions with higher requirements for subject qualifications and liquidity management can focus on medium - term notes, and consider 9 - 10Y secondary perpetual bonds in certain market conditions. Institutions with stable liability ends can increase the allocation of long - term credit bonds and consider using riding strategies for urban investment bonds [5][61][62].