Group 1 - The credit bond carry strategy remains robust, but the safety cushion is narrowing, especially at the short end [9] - The current credit spread is at a relatively low level, suggesting attention to certain varieties and downgrading of coupon value [9] - The demand for amortized bond funds supports the logic that the public credit bond market has not yet significantly started but remains promising [9] Group 2 - The company bond ETF (511030) is experiencing a stalemate, with the latest quote at 106.94 yuan and a cumulative increase of 1.51% over the past year [3] - The trading volume of the company bond ETF is 8.85%, with a transaction value of 3.026 billion yuan, and an average daily transaction of 3.105 billion yuan over the past week [4] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF has reached 34.193 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a year [5] Group 3 - The company bond ETF has seen continuous net purchases of leveraged funds for five consecutive days, with the highest single-day net purchase reaching 19.1374 million yuan [5] - The maximum drawdown of the company bond ETF this year is 0.03%, with a recovery period of 7 days [5] - The management fee rate for the company bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [5] Group 4 - The tracking error of the company bond ETF this year is 0.006%, closely tracking the China Bond - High-Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index [6] - The index serves as a performance benchmark for investing in high-grade corporate bonds, based on AAA-rated corporate bonds [6]

机构对2026年2月信用债市场展望如下： ✨套息适度拉长久期至3-5年。基本面偏弱叠加资金面呵护，共同支撑债市短期行情，中高等级信用债套息策略仍然稳健，但安全垫在缩小尤其是短端。考 虑到摊余债基对普信债仍有需求支持，可适度拉长期限对3-5年中高等级信用债套息加杠杆增厚收益。 ✨同时关注中短端票息资产。考虑到当前信用利差已处于历史相对低位，继续压缩的空间相对有限，建议关注部分品种和等级下沉的票息价值，可重点关 注2年以内头部央国企地产债、3年及以内弱资质城投债、3年左右中高等级永续或私募普信债、以及3-5年高等级保险次级债的参与机会。 信用债ETF日度跟踪显示总规模5147亿元，单日下降22.4亿元，其中基准做市ETF下降7.8亿元、科创债ETF下降19.2亿元；加权久期中位数3.2年。流动性： 整体成交金额1915亿元，平均单笔成交额685万元（基准做市723万元、科创债727万元）；换手率中位数32.5%。估值情况：收益率中位数1.90%，贴水率中 位数-17.7BP（基准做市-18.3BP、科创债-17.9BP）。 截至2026年2月4日 15:00，公司债ETF(511030)上涨0.05%，最新价报1 ...

Key Insights - The credit bond carry trade strategy remains robust, but the safety cushion is narrowing, especially at the short end [3][4] - Current credit spreads are at relatively low levels, with attention on certain varieties and the value of lower-rated coupons [3][4] - The performance of perpetual bonds has been strong since the beginning of the year, but the market may have reached a temporary peak [3][4] Market Overview - In January 2026, the issuance of traditional credit bonds increased slightly, with net financing rising significantly [11][13] - The total issuance of credit bonds reached 12,308 billion, with net financing at 4,997 billion, showing a substantial increase compared to previous months [11][13] - The performance of credit bonds in January was strong, with yields declining and credit spreads narrowing across various maturities [19][23] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to extend the duration of carry trades to 3-5 years while focusing on mid to short-term coupon assets [4][6] - The demand for certain credit bonds is expected to remain supported by the accumulation of amortized debt funds, although the market may not see the same level of activity as in Q4 of the previous year [4][6] - Attention should be given to high-quality central state-owned enterprise real estate bonds, lower-rated city investment bonds, and high-grade insurance subordinated bonds for potential investment opportunities [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is insensitive to fundamentals. In the volatile period, seizing periodic opportunities is more important than speculating on one - sided trends. The current approach to credit bonds is recommended to be defensive, with duration controlled at a low level. Short - term credit bonds may have stronger certainty [1][9]. - In a low - interest - rate environment, the adjustment pattern of credit bond yields has changed. Short - end yields are more resistant to decline compared to long - end varieties. It is advisable to focus on short - term credit bonds, especially those within 3 years [1][14]. - There are many disturbing factors in the bond market in the future. During the volatile period, short - and medium - term credit bond varieties are relatively stable. It is recommended to prioritize the carry trade strategy for credit bonds within 3 years [4][26]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Trends and Overall Strategy - Recently, the bond market has been frequently adjusted, showing a weak and volatile trend. Positive factors such as negative credit growth in July, further slowing demand in economic data, and loose liquidity have not had a substantial positive impact on the bond market. The bond market is currently dominated by risk appetite. If there is negative feedback and continuous capital outflows, there may be a possibility of the bond market rising. Therefore, the overall credit bond strategy should be defensive, with low duration [1][9]. 3.2 Characteristics of Short - Term Credit Bonds - **Yield Resistance**: In a low - interest - rate environment, the adjustment pattern of credit bond yields has changed. When negative factors emerge, investors tend to sell long - term bonds and reduce duration to maintain liquidity. Since July this year, the yields of 1 - year and 3 - year AAA - medium - and short - term notes have increased by 3BP and 11BP respectively, while those of 10 - year and 15 - year AAA - medium - and short - term notes have increased by 14BP and 16BP respectively. Credit bonds within 3 years have stronger "resistance to decline" [1][14]. - **Price Performance**: From the weekly increase of the ChinaBond full - price index, since July, the bond market has been weak. Varieties within 1 year have shown stable performance, even with upward trends. Varieties within 5 years have relatively small declines, with weekly declines generally within 0.45% in the past two months. In contrast, the longer the term of varieties over 5 years, the greater the decline. On the week of August 15, the weekly decline of the full - price index of AAA credit bonds over 10 years was 0.67%, while that of 7 - 10 years and 5 - 7 years was 0.37% and 0.35% respectively. The decline of other short - term bonds of the same grade was within 0.20%, and the index of bonds within 1 year had a small increase of 0.10% [2][15]. - **Net Value Stability**: From the net value performance of AAA medium - and short - term notes of each term, medium - and long - term credit bonds have a higher upward amplitude in net value due to higher coupon advantages, but also have greater overall net value volatility. The shorter the duration of credit bond varieties, the smoother the net value curve. For example, during the negative feedback of wealth management redemptions in November 2022 and the significant bond market adjustment in March this year, short - term credit bonds showed stronger resistance to fluctuations [19]. 3.3 Fund Behavior and Credit Spreads - Since July, funds have reduced their holdings of long - term credit bonds and have been net - selling credit bonds over 7 years in the past two months. Instead, they have increased their holdings of shorter - term credit bond varieties. As of August 19, funds have net - bought approximately 70.3 billion yuan and 57.7 billion yuan of varieties within 1 year and 1 - 3 years respectively since July. Currently, the credit spreads of long - term credit bonds are still at a relatively high level since 2023, and there is a possibility of further widening. It is recommended to remain cautious about long - term credit bonds [3][23]. 3.4 Future Bond Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions - There are many disturbing factors in the bond market in the future. Although the current relatively loose liquidity provides room for carry trade with leverage, the possibility of further significant loosening of liquidity is low. Coupled with insufficient protection space for credit spreads of each variety, any negative factor may amplify market sentiment and lead to further market adjustments. - It is recommended to prioritize the carry trade strategy for credit bonds within 3 years. As of August 20, the maturity yields of various 2 - year credit bonds (including financial bonds) are basically above 1.85%. Institutions with high coupon requirements can appropriately lower their credit quality requirements [4][26].