1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In 2025, the bond market has shifted from a unilateral bull market in 2024 to a continuous wide - range oscillation pattern. Since the third quarter, due to factors such as the "anti - involution" policy, the stock - bond "see - saw" effect, and the fund fee rate new - rule solicitation, the bond market has experienced overall value re - evaluation. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, there are both positive and negative factors in the bond market, and it is expected to show an oscillatory pattern with limited trend - based market opportunities [1][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - narrative Changes and the Re - evaluation of Bond Assets - **Overall Market Change**: The bond market has shifted from a unilateral bull market in 2024 to a wide - range oscillation pattern. Since the third quarter, influenced by factors like the "anti - involution" policy and the fund fee rate new - rule solicitation, bond market interest rates have fluctuated upwards, and bond assets have undergone comprehensive value re - evaluation. As of October 20, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds have all increased compared to the beginning of the year [9]. - **Deviation from Fundamental and Liquidity**: In the third quarter, the weak fundamentals and loose liquidity could not explain the bond market's fluctuations. The bond market was mainly driven by the "asset re - allocation" logic and the "re - inflation" expectation under the "anti - involution" policy. Regulatory policies also had an impact on the bond market [11]. - **Investor Behavior Change**: Since the third quarter, both residents and institutions have adjusted their asset allocation, reducing the proportion of bond assets and increasing the allocation of equity assets. This has had an impact on the bond market's capital supply [12]. 3.2 "Triple" Re - evaluation of Interest - rate Bonds - **Obvious Interest Rate Callback**: Since the third quarter, affected by policies and regulatory changes, the bond market sentiment has been under pressure, and the yields of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds have increased significantly. As of October 20, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields are at relatively high levels in 2025 [17]. - **Widening of Term Spreads**: The term spreads of 10 - year - 1 - year and 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bonds have widened, and the yield curve has evolved towards a bear - steep state [18]. - **Increase in Variety Spreads**: The 10 - year China Development Bank bond - treasury bond spread has been re - evaluated. Under the influence of the fund fee rate new - rule solicitation, the redemption pressure of bond funds may increase, and the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds may widen [23]. 3.3 Differentiation and Remodeling of Credit Spreads - **Relatively Resistant Short - term Credit**: Short - term credit bonds are relatively resistant to decline. The yield increase of medium - and short - term general credit bonds is mostly within 10BP, and the credit spread has slightly narrowed [25]. - **Re - emergence of the "Interest Rate Amplifier" Attribute of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds**: The yields of long - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have increased significantly, and the current credit spread quantile is above 90% [25]. - **Value Remodeling of Long - term General Credit Bonds**: Under the influence of the fund fee rate new - rule solicitation, the demand for long - term general credit bonds is weak, and the adjustment range of ultra - long - term credit bonds is relatively large [25]. 3.4 High Premium Rate in the Convertible Bond Market - **Overall High Value in the Third Quarter**: In the context of the overall re - evaluation of the bond market, the valuation system of convertible bonds is also being remodeled, and their value in the third quarter is at a relatively high historical level [27]. - **Stable Average Pure Bond Value and Rising Pure Bond Premium Rate**: The pure bond value of the convertible bond market in the third quarter has remained stable, while the pure bond premium rate has risen, indicating that the equity nature of convertible bonds is stronger than the bond nature [27]. - **Increased Average Conversion Value and Relatively High Conversion Premium Rate**: The average conversion value of the whole market has increased, and the conversion premium rate is at a relatively high historical level [28]. 3.5 Tariff Hedging vs. Macro - narrative: Which Will Prevail? - **Fourth - quarter Bond Market Review**: In October, the bond market usually fluctuates greatly, and it is an important window for the introduction of fourth - quarter growth - stabilization and credit - easing policies. From November to December, the bond market usually enters a repair period [38]. - **Positive Factors for the Bond Market**: Tariff disturbances may bring hedging sentiment and easing expectations; the policy effect in the fourth quarter may weaken, and economic growth may slow down; the capital market is balanced and stable, and the central bank's supportive attitude remains; the bond market odds have improved, and the attractiveness to allocation - type funds may increase [3][41]. - **Negative Factors for the Bond Market**: The implementation of the fund sales fee rate reform may trigger redemption and position - adjustment behaviors; the "re - inflation" expectation and macro - narrative changes under the "anti - involution" policy may have a long - term impact on the bond market [3]. - **Outlook for the Bond Market**: In the fourth quarter, the bond market is expected to show an oscillatory pattern with a trading range for the 10 - year treasury bond yield between 1.7% - 1.9%. However, due to various factors, it is difficult to have a trend - based market [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the bond market strengthened. With the recent escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, on October 11, interest rates declined, and the long - term bond yields of 10Y and 30Y national bonds fell below 1.75% and 2.10% respectively, increasing the market's long - buying expectations [5][11]. - In the case of tariff war escalation, interest - rate bonds are more cost - effective overall, followed by perpetual secondary bonds. The impact of tariff shocks on the bond market is mostly one - time, presenting mainly trading opportunities. If priced within 2 trading days, the overall benefit is within 5bp [5][11]. - Recent institutional behaviors support a wave of long - buying opportunities for interest rates. Banks are continuously buying bonds on the left side, funds have emptied their ultra - long bond positions, and securities firms are closing their positions, all of which are positive for the bond market [5][12]. - Large banks are extending the duration of their bond investments. Their increased buying of 7 - 10Y national bonds since the end of September reduces the upward space for interest rates [5][12]. - Compared with the tariff shock in April, the current funds are looser. The long - short term spread has opened up the downward space for interest rates. If the central bank's trading of national bonds is implemented, the interest - rate center may decline overall [5][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trade Frictions and Interest - Rate Opportunities 3.1.1 Opportunities in Interest Rates under Tariff War Escalation - In the tariff war escalation scenario, from an odds perspective, interest - rate bonds are more cost - effective, followed by perpetual secondary bonds. The impact of tariff shocks on the bond market is mainly trading - oriented, and if priced within 2 trading days, the benefit is within 5bp [5][11]. - Institutional behaviors support long - buying opportunities for interest rates. Banks are buying on the left side, funds have "nothing left to sell", and securities firms are closing positions [5][12]. - Large banks are extending the duration of their bond investments, reducing the upward space for interest rates. The current funds are looser, and the long - short term spread has opened up the downward space for interest rates [5][12][13]. 3.1.2 Yield Curve - Compared with September 26, as of October 10, the yields of national bonds and China Development Bank bonds declined overall. For national bonds, the 1Y - 15Y yields mostly declined, while the 30Y yield rose. For China Development Bank bonds, the 1Y - 10Y yields mostly declined, and the 15Y and 30Y yields rose [14][15][16]. 3.1.3 Term Spread - Compared with September 26, as of October 10, the spreads of national bonds (1Y - DR001, 1Y - DR007) increased, and the spreads of China Development Bank bonds showed a differentiated trend. The short - term term spread narrowed, and the long - term spread widened [17]. 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.2.1 Leverage Ratio - From September 29 to October 10, the leverage ratio fluctuated and declined. As of October 10, it dropped to 107.07% [19]. 3.2.2 Repurchase Transaction Volume - From September 29 to October 10, the average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was 6.3 trillion yuan, with an average daily overnight trading volume accounting for 68.96%. Compared with the week from September 22 to September 26, both the overall volume and the overnight volume decreased [23][24]. 3.2.3 Funding Situation - From September 29 to October 10, the funds lent by banks first decreased and then increased. The net lending of large and policy banks on October 10 was 4.6 trillion yuan, and the net borrowing of joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks was 0.95 trillion yuan. The main borrowing party was securities firms, and the lending of money market funds fluctuated and increased. DR007 and R007 declined, and 1YFR007 and 5YFR007 first decreased and then increased [27]. 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 3.3.1 Median Duration of Bond Funds (Including Leverage) - As of October 10, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 2.66 years, and the median duration (excluding leverage) was 2.60 years. Both were lower than those on September 26 [40][41]. 3.3.2 Median Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds (Including Leverage) - As of October 10, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 3.48 years, and the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) dropped to 2.39 years. The median durations (excluding leverage) of interest - rate and credit bond funds also decreased compared with September 26 [46]. 3.4 Comparison of Generic Strategies 3.4.1 Sino - US Interest - Rate Spread - As of October 10, the Sino - US interest - rate spread showed a narrowing trend, and the inversion of the spread between the 10Y Chinese national bond and the 10Y US national bond improved [49]. 3.4.2 Implied Tax Rate - As of October 10, the implied tax rate (the spread between China Development Bank bonds and national bonds) generally widened, and the spread between the 10Y China Development Bank bond and the 10Y national bond rose to 19bp [50]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balances - As of October 10, the bond lending balance of the 10Y national bond 250011.IB recovered, and the bond lending balance of the 30Y national bond 2500002.IB maintained a volatile trend [51].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the credit bond market is experiencing a divergence in trends, with most credit bond yields rising and credit spreads showing mixed performance, particularly in the short-end segment [10][21] - It is suggested to focus on the 2-3 year credit bonds for yield opportunities, as their spreads are higher than the lowest points in 2024 and lower than the average spread since 2024, indicating potential for value [12][21] - The report highlights that the financial bonds have shown some recovery after significant adjustments, but the sentiment remains cautious with limited room for bullish positions [10][21] Group 2 - Key policies include the announcement of a loan from Shenzhen Metro Group to Vanke for debt repayment, totaling up to 2.064 billion yuan, with cumulative loans since 2025 reaching 25.941 billion yuan [3][14] - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 1.48198 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with tax revenue slightly up by 0.02% [15][20] - The central bank is guiding commercial banks to provide loans to state-owned enterprises and financing platforms to settle overdue accounts, with a total debt scale of approximately 1.8 trillion yuan [4][16] Group 3 - The report notes that the secondary market for credit bonds is active, with a significant increase in trading volume observed [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the context of the upcoming policy changes and market conditions [10][21] - The report also mentions that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has optimized the bond repurchase business to stabilize market prices, which may lead to a narrowing of spreads for lower-rated bonds [4][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seasonal characteristics and calendar effects of bond market institutional behavior are important areas of bond market microstructure research. By combining the calendar effects with the bond investment patterns of different institutions, investors can seize structural opportunities, improve investment win - rates, and enhance return levels [6][9][14]. - Among different institutions, bank wealth management is most significantly affected by seasonality, followed by commercial banks and insurance companies, while the seasonality of public funds is relatively weak [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bank Wealth Management - **Wealth Management Scale**: The scale of bank wealth management shows a seasonal pattern of "shrinking at the end of the quarter and growing at the beginning of the quarter". Quarterly, the scale surges most significantly in the second and third quarters. Annually, the first quarter is mainly affected by the Spring Festival, and the fourth quarter enters a seasonal off - peak. Weekly, the significant scale changes are concentrated in the last week of the quarter - end month and the first week of the quarter - beginning month [16][19][20]. - **Wealth Management Bond Allocation**: The bond - allocation intensity of wealth management increases in months of large - scale growth and the year - end "pre - emptive" period. It decreases at the end of the quarter and before the Spring Festival. The months with large bond - allocation proportions are April, July, August, May, November, and October [24][25]. - **Implications for Bond Investment**: In the bond - allocation months of the second and third quarters, short - term products such as certificates of deposit, short - term financing bonds, and short - term policy - bank bonds within 1 year are the main allocation varieties. In the year - end "pre - emptive" stage, the bond - allocation term is extended. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunities of varieties that wealth management focuses on and has pricing power [28][36]. Commercial Banks - **Seasonal Patterns of Liabilities and Supervision**: The liability growth of commercial banks mainly occurs in the first half of the year, with a "good start" in the first quarter. Deposits usually grow at the end of the quarter and decline at the beginning of the quarter. Bank bond allocation is restricted by performance growth, regulatory assessment, and the seasonality of fiscal bond issuance [7][41]. - **Large Banks**: Bond - allocation increases when the deposit - loan gap is high and the supply of interest - rate bonds is large. At the end of the quarter after the large - scale supply of long - term bonds, pay attention to the opportunities of steepening the treasury bond curve through "buying short and selling long" and be vigilant about the additional adjustment pressure on long - term varieties. When the bond market is continuously adjusting, large banks may sell old bonds to realize floating profits at the end of the quarter [55][58][64]. - **Rural Commercial Banks**: Bond - allocation is large in the first quarter due to the "good start" and in the year - end pre - emptive stage. In the second half of the year, they allocate bonds evenly in non - quarter - end months. Tracking the behavior of rural commercial banks is a good leading indicator to judge whether the year - end pre - emptive market will start [65][72][75]. Insurance - **Seasonal Influencing Factors**: Insurance premium income has an obvious "good start" at the beginning of the year. In the past two years, the reduction of the预定 interest rate has led to super - seasonal growth. Some insurance companies may adjust their positions at the end of the quarter to improve solvency assessment indicators due to the "Solvency II" assessment [79][80][85]. - **Insurance Bond - Allocation Seasonality**: Bond - allocation peaks usually occur in March and December. In the past two years, due to the reduction of the预定 interest rate, there has been super - seasonal bond - allocation in August and September [89]. - **Implications for Bond Investment**: Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds in March. Also, focus on the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 30 - 10 - year treasury bonds after the reduction of the预定 interest rate [92][95][98]. Public Funds - **General Situation**: Public funds' bond investment follows the market and has relatively weak seasonality. However, some products and individual time points show certain seasonal characteristics [100]. - **Money Market Funds**: Affected by the end - of - quarter assessment of banks and liquidity management needs, the scale of money market funds declines at the end of the quarter and recovers slowly after the quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of declining yields of certificates of deposit during the bond - allocation windows in mid - March, late June, and late December [4]. - **Amortized - cost - method Bond Funds**: During the open - period peak, pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread of policy - bank bonds with corresponding maturities [4][10]. - **Bond - type Funds**: The second quarter is the peak period of bond - allocation throughout the year. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the spread between 5 - year old policy - bank bonds and 2 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds. At the end of the year, there is a "pre - emptive" behavior, and attention should be paid to varieties with good trading attributes such as 10 - year China Development Bank bonds, 30 - year treasury bonds, and 5 - year secondary capital bonds [4][10].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the economic data for August shows signs of weakness, with most indicators such as industrial output, services, consumption, investment, and real estate sales falling below previous values, while only exports accelerated [3][5][85] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed a nearly 10-year high, driven by improved market risk appetite under the influence of wide credit policies [3][4] - The report highlights a "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy as the main logic in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a peak of 1.7925% during the month [3][4][11] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment analysis reveals that the manufacturing PMI for July marginally increased to 49.4%, indicating a potential slowdown in the economy for the third quarter [5][29] - The report notes that the central bank's monetary policy has been relatively supportive, with significant net injections of funds in August, including a net injection of 0.3 trillion yuan [24][71] - The bond market strategy suggests adopting a barbell strategy to balance liquidity and yield, especially if the 10-year government bond yield breaks the 1.8% resistance level [6][85] Group 3 - The report discusses the government bond issuance situation, indicating that local government bond issuance in August was 977.6 billion yuan, which is lower than planned by 183.2 billion yuan [19] - It is projected that the supply pressure of government bonds in September may decrease compared to August, with an expected net financing scale of 1.3 trillion yuan [19][20] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's performance is influenced by the dynamics of the stock market, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect expected to weaken in September [85] Group 4 - The analysis of the overseas economic environment indicates that the process of de-dollarization has slowed, while downward pressure on the US economy has begun to emerge [73][84] - The report highlights that foreign investment in China's bond market has been on the rise, with foreign holdings reaching 4.39 trillion yuan by June [73][76] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September could impact the Chinese bond market, necessitating close monitoring of overseas economic data [77][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is insensitive to fundamentals. In the volatile period, seizing periodic opportunities is more important than speculating on one - sided trends. The current approach to credit bonds is recommended to be defensive, with duration controlled at a low level. Short - term credit bonds may have stronger certainty [1][9]. - In a low - interest - rate environment, the adjustment pattern of credit bond yields has changed. Short - end yields are more resistant to decline compared to long - end varieties. It is advisable to focus on short - term credit bonds, especially those within 3 years [1][14]. - There are many disturbing factors in the bond market in the future. During the volatile period, short - and medium - term credit bond varieties are relatively stable. It is recommended to prioritize the carry trade strategy for credit bonds within 3 years [4][26]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Trends and Overall Strategy - Recently, the bond market has been frequently adjusted, showing a weak and volatile trend. Positive factors such as negative credit growth in July, further slowing demand in economic data, and loose liquidity have not had a substantial positive impact on the bond market. The bond market is currently dominated by risk appetite. If there is negative feedback and continuous capital outflows, there may be a possibility of the bond market rising. Therefore, the overall credit bond strategy should be defensive, with low duration [1][9]. 3.2 Characteristics of Short - Term Credit Bonds - **Yield Resistance**: In a low - interest - rate environment, the adjustment pattern of credit bond yields has changed. When negative factors emerge, investors tend to sell long - term bonds and reduce duration to maintain liquidity. Since July this year, the yields of 1 - year and 3 - year AAA - medium - and short - term notes have increased by 3BP and 11BP respectively, while those of 10 - year and 15 - year AAA - medium - and short - term notes have increased by 14BP and 16BP respectively. Credit bonds within 3 years have stronger "resistance to decline" [1][14]. - **Price Performance**: From the weekly increase of the ChinaBond full - price index, since July, the bond market has been weak. Varieties within 1 year have shown stable performance, even with upward trends. Varieties within 5 years have relatively small declines, with weekly declines generally within 0.45% in the past two months. In contrast, the longer the term of varieties over 5 years, the greater the decline. On the week of August 15, the weekly decline of the full - price index of AAA credit bonds over 10 years was 0.67%, while that of 7 - 10 years and 5 - 7 years was 0.37% and 0.35% respectively. The decline of other short - term bonds of the same grade was within 0.20%, and the index of bonds within 1 year had a small increase of 0.10% [2][15]. - **Net Value Stability**: From the net value performance of AAA medium - and short - term notes of each term, medium - and long - term credit bonds have a higher upward amplitude in net value due to higher coupon advantages, but also have greater overall net value volatility. The shorter the duration of credit bond varieties, the smoother the net value curve. For example, during the negative feedback of wealth management redemptions in November 2022 and the significant bond market adjustment in March this year, short - term credit bonds showed stronger resistance to fluctuations [19]. 3.3 Fund Behavior and Credit Spreads - Since July, funds have reduced their holdings of long - term credit bonds and have been net - selling credit bonds over 7 years in the past two months. Instead, they have increased their holdings of shorter - term credit bond varieties. As of August 19, funds have net - bought approximately 70.3 billion yuan and 57.7 billion yuan of varieties within 1 year and 1 - 3 years respectively since July. Currently, the credit spreads of long - term credit bonds are still at a relatively high level since 2023, and there is a possibility of further widening. It is recommended to remain cautious about long - term credit bonds [3][23]. 3.4 Future Bond Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions - There are many disturbing factors in the bond market in the future. Although the current relatively loose liquidity provides room for carry trade with leverage, the possibility of further significant loosening of liquidity is low. Coupled with insufficient protection space for credit spreads of each variety, any negative factor may amplify market sentiment and lead to further market adjustments. - It is recommended to prioritize the carry trade strategy for credit bonds within 3 years. As of August 20, the maturity yields of various 2 - year credit bonds (including financial bonds) are basically above 1.85%. Institutions with high coupon requirements can appropriately lower their credit quality requirements [4][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second batch of 14 Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs were submitted on August 20, 2025. With policy support, the second batch is expected to be launched soon. The Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs have shown rapid scale growth and good liquidity since their listing, and are expected to thrive in the future [1][10]. - The second batch of Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs will introduce incremental funds to the market, enhancing the liquidity of the underlying bonds and potentially lowering their yields. However, the short - term decline may be limited due to various disturbances. It is recommended to focus on the post - adjustment allocation opportunities of 1 - 3 - year medium - to - high - grade Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond index underlying bonds [1][29]. - The stock market was strong last week, suppressing the bond market. Credit bond yields increased across the board, and the net issuance of corporate - type credit bonds decreased, while that of financial - type credit bonds increased significantly [2][3]. - In the secondary market, trading of medium - and - short - duration bonds was active, and the proportion of long - duration bond trading increased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Credit Hotspots - On August 20, 2025, the second batch of 14 Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs were submitted, with 10 tracking the CSI AAA Science - and - Technology Innovation Corporate Bond Index, 3 tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange AAA Science - and - Technology Innovation Corporate Bond Index, and 1 tracking the Shenzhen Stock Exchange AAA Science - and - Technology Innovation Corporate Bond Index. Referring to the approval process of the first batch, the second batch is likely to be launched soon [10]. - Since the first batch of Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs were listed, they have become the second - largest type of credit bond ETFs. As of August 22, 2025, the scale of credit bond ETFs was 348.3 billion yuan, and the Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs accounted for 34.6% with a scale of 120.4 billion yuan [11]. - The Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs have shown good liquidity since their listing. From July 17 to August 22, the average daily trading volume fluctuated between 18 - 106 billion yuan, and the average daily turnover rate was 46.48% [15]. - The net value of Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs has experienced two rounds of adjustments. As of August 22, compared with the listing date on July 17, the average decline of the net value of 10 Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs was 0.43% [19]. - With policy support, increased supply of Science - and - Technology Innovation Bonds, and the launch of the repurchase business, the Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs are expected to develop well. The second batch of ETFs will enhance the liquidity of the underlying bonds and lower their yields, but the short - term decline may be limited [27][29]. Market Review - From August 15 to August 22, 2025, the stock market was strong, suppressing the bond market. Credit bond yields increased across the board, with most medium - and long - term yields rising by more than 6BP, and medium - and short - term credit bonds being relatively resilient. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds also increased by 4 - 8BP [2][34]. - Last week, bond funds were redeemed, with net sales of 13.3 billion yuan, while wealth management products had net purchases of 19.3 billion yuan. The scale of credit bond ETFs was 348.3 billion yuan, up 1.7% from the previous week [2]. - The median spreads of public bonds of AAA - rated entities in various industries generally increased by 2 - 6BP, and the median spreads of urban investment bonds in each province increased across the board, with Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, and Liaoning seeing increases of more than 6BP [2][34]. Primary Issuance - From August 18 to August 22, 2025, the total issuance of corporate - type credit bonds was 235 billion yuan, a 21% decrease from the previous period, with a net repayment of 64.1 billion yuan. The total issuance of financial - type credit bonds was 120.4 billion yuan, a 142% increase from the previous period, with a net financing of 61.9 billion yuan [3][60]. - Among corporate - type credit bonds, urban investment bonds issued 101.8 billion yuan with a net repayment of 21.6 billion yuan, and industrial bonds issued 126.6 billion yuan with a net repayment of 37 billion yuan [3][60]. - The average issuance rates of medium - and short - term notes and corporate bonds mostly showed an upward trend [3][60]. Secondary Trading - Active trading entities are mainly medium - to - high - grade, medium - and short - term, and central and state - owned enterprises [4][71]. - For urban investment bonds, active trading entities are from strong economic and financial provinces like Jiangsu and Guangdong, and high - spread areas in large economic provinces. For real - estate bonds and private - enterprise bonds, active trading entities are mostly AAA - rated, with trading terms mostly in the medium - and short - term [4][71]. - Among actively traded urban investment bonds, the proportion of bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years increased slightly from 0% to 4% compared with the previous week [4][71].

Group 1 - The report indicates that credit bond yields have adjusted significantly, with the adjustment magnitude exceeding that of interest rate bonds, leading to a widening of credit spreads. Notably, long-term credit bonds experienced a marked decline, with some mid-to-high grade 7-10 year bonds dropping over 10 basis points, while 3-5 year credit bonds also saw substantial declines [1][9]. - Recent buying behavior shows that funds, representing trading positions, have been net sellers, particularly of certain interest rate products, while wealth management and insurance sectors continue to buy on dips, focusing mainly on short-term bonds with maturities of three years or less [2][15]. - The static "downside protection" for various credit products has been calculated, showing that short-term bonds within one year have robust protection, generally exceeding 50 basis points. The downside protection for 2-3 year credit products has improved by 2-5 basis points since July 18, now ranging from 20-40 basis points [3][31]. Group 2 - As of August 22, 2025, certain AA and AA(2) credit bonds with maturities of two years or less have seen yields drop to over 1.9%, indicating a value in short-term coupons that also possess defensive attributes amid market volatility. The report suggests that the bond market may still be influenced by equity market fluctuations, necessitating careful liquidity management [4][34]. - The report highlights that the yield curve for 3-4 year perpetual bonds has become more attractive, with current valuations exceeding those of similarly rated short-term and urban investment bonds. It anticipates that the 1.8% resistance level in the bond market may be difficult to breach, suggesting higher trading value once interest rates stabilize [4][34].

Group 1 - The overall credit bond yields have followed the adjustment of interest rate bonds, with credit spreads showing mixed changes. Specifically, the decline in the 3-5 year high-grade perpetual bonds was the most significant, reaching 6-11 basis points, while the longer-term bonds also experienced notable declines [1][11] - City investment bonds saw a greater decline compared to medium-short bonds, with the 7-year ultra-long city investment bonds experiencing the largest drop of around 8 basis points [1][11] - The credit spread for medium-short bonds, especially those with maturities of 4 years and above, was generally weaker than that of the same maturity national development bonds, leading to a passive narrowing of credit spreads during the week [1][11] Group 2 - Since July, the trading volume of public credit bonds has been continuously shrinking, and the duration has also decreased from its high levels. The long-term credit bonds (over 5 years) have shown relative resilience due to buying from insurance and wealth management products, while the buying power from funds has decreased significantly [2][16] - The valuation of ETF constituent bonds has generally followed the market adjustment, but the decline in valuation for constituent bonds was structurally lower than that of non-constituent bonds of similar maturity [3][24] - The long-end constituent bonds, especially ultra-long bonds, were more resilient during the week, with most individual bonds experiencing smaller valuation declines compared to non-constituent bonds [3][44] Group 3 - Since May, the trading duration of perpetual bonds has been continuously extended, with both the trading volume and proportion of bonds with maturities over 5 years reaching year-to-date highs. This indicates a shift from trading to allocation among major participating institutions [4][46] - The supply of perpetual bonds, including TLAC bonds, has significantly increased during this period, and the buying power from public funds has been higher than selling power, particularly for long-end perpetual bonds [4][47] Group 4 - As of August 15, 2025, some AA and AA(2) credit bonds with maturities within 2 years have seen yields drop to over 1.9%, indicating the value of short-term bonds. These bonds also possess defensive attributes amid market volatility, as the bond market will continue to be influenced by equity market fluctuations [5][60] - The 3-4 year perpetual bonds have emerged as a cost-effective option, with their yield curve steepening and current valuations being higher than those of similarly rated medium-short bonds and city investment bonds, offering better trading value and liquidity [5][60]

Group 1 - The credit market has shown a general increase, with the yield curve steepening for perpetual bonds, as credit spreads have narrowed significantly due to a recovery in credit sentiment and favorable tax policies [1][2][4] - The yield on 3-year perpetual bonds has decreased by 3-4 basis points, while the long-end yields have seen limited increases, indicating a flattening of the curve [1][4] - Short-term bonds have outperformed long-term bonds, and lower-rated bonds have performed better than higher-rated ones during this period [1][2] Group 2 - The reintroduction of VAT on newly issued government and local bonds has provided a relative pricing advantage for credit bonds, leading to a noticeable increase in buying activity from public funds [2][14] - Despite a decrease in the scale of wealth management products, there has been a temporary increase in credit holdings due to the attractive pricing of credit bonds [2][25] Group 3 - Since July, there has been a slight increase in the supply of urban investment bonds, alongside stable issuance from state-owned and private enterprises, particularly in the technology sector [3][33] - As of August 10, 2025, the cumulative net financing for credit bonds has reached 1.556 trillion yuan, slightly above the level seen in the same period last year [3][34] Group 4 - Credit spreads have compressed significantly since the beginning of 2025, with short-term spreads compressing more than long-term ones, indicating a structural shift in the credit market [4][47] - The current yield levels for most credit varieties are below those at the beginning of the year, with the exception of some high-grade perpetual bonds [4][51] - Non-financial credit bonds are expected to benefit from a tax advantage of 3-15 basis points, with spreads for mid-to-high-grade 3-5 year credit varieties approaching last year's low points [4][53]