债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 7 月或仍难走出趋势行情 ——债券月度策略思考 ❖ 一、基本面：聚焦数据修复与弹性变化。 1、内部：6 月"抢出口"边际放缓，既定政策或加速推进。6 月经济运行延续 淡季特征，6 月制造业 PMI 延续在荣枯线下方。总量政策亦积极发声提振预 期，预计 7 月政治局会议定调或延续 4 月，会议前后既定政策的接续举措或加 速落地，但增量政策推出概率偏低，三季度进入"宽信用"效果验证期。2、 外部：美方与其他贸易伙伴的谈判期限可能延长。原定 7 月 9 日谈判截止日 临近，但迄今白宫仅与少数国家达成协议，谈判期限可能延长，短期不确定性 将重新上升，资本市场波动可能放大，需关注对市场风险偏好的影响。 ❖ 二、流动性：缴款放量、理财"抢配"，关注两点潜在预期差 1、季末央行呵护，资金价格相对平稳。从超储水平和融出体量来看，当前银 行水位处于相对充裕状态。大行不"缺负债"的情况下，存单定价下行受限， 或主要考虑 6 月存单到期续发压力。2、跨季后资金宽松空间或有限，但存单 有季节性修复机会。7 月资金或有小幅修复空间，月末货政例会央行依然关注 "防空转"以及"长端收益率 ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 信用利差压缩行情启动 [Table_Title2] 信用周观察系列 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12-16 日，中美关税谈判取得超预期进展，4 月出口数据超预期走 强，但 PPI 同比与新增信贷则显著偏弱，空头力量占据上风，市场选 择阶段性防御，利率债收益率上行。在利率债震荡偏弱行情中，中短 端信用债凭借利差优势受到青睐，城投债 1-2 年收益率下行 3-6bp，利 差收窄 6-9bp。 从二级成交来看，信用债买盘热度小幅降温，城投债和产业债日均成 交笔数均减少，TKN 占比和低估值占比也有所下降。分评级看，城投 债变化不大，产业债成交向高等级集中，AAA-及以上成交占比由 51% 升至 55%。分期限结构看，城投债和产业债均拉久期。一级市场发行 情绪继续回升，城投债发行倍数 3 倍以上占比环比前周上升 6 个百分 点至 63%，产业债全场倍数 3 倍以上占比由 31%升至 38%。 往后看，长期债牛的观点不变，但是短期仍处在等待基本面变化的阶 段，债市或进入震荡期。而在震荡期内，波 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 19 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 19 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 【浙商固收 覃汉/沈聂萍】债券市场专题研究：跌到年线位置的 TS 或将企稳——20250516 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/李沛】A 股策略周报：冲高回落波动增大，调结构、控回撤——20250517 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 浙商早报 1 重要观点 1.1 【浙商固收 覃汉/沈聂萍】债券市场专题研究：跌到年线位置的 TS 或将企稳——20250516 重要观点 3）驱动因素 4 月以来，围绕中美关税政策，长端已经出现了 2 次单日快速定价。短期看，长债赔率问题导致市场对于 诸多因素的定价敏感度大幅降低。由于全球资本市场投资者对于特朗普关税政策变化节奏的预警普遍不是非 常充分，所以国内债市才会出现利率走势单日大幅逆转的恐慌性行情。除此以外，长端对于双降、政治局会 议、资金价格等常规因素或小超预 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current bond market, short - term credit bond yield decline and spread narrowing space are limited. Traders can wait for a better position after market adjustment to participate in the game, and currently focus on certain coupon opportunities and consider allocation from the perspective of absolute yield [3][27] - Different investment strategies should be adopted according to the stability of the liability side. For those with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds; for those with strong liability - side stability, allocate 4 - 5y varieties [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. How to Allocate Credit Bonds after a Significant Narrowing of Spreads (1) Credit Bond Market Review - This week, the capital price was low at first and then high. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tax rates, boosting risk appetite. Under the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market was under pressure. Interest - rate bond yields rose across the board, while credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend and performed better than interest - rate bonds. Bank secondary and perpetual bonds with significantly narrowed spreads performed weakly, with yields rising slightly and spreads narrowing passively. The yields of other credit varieties generally declined for 1 - 4y and rose for 5 - 15y, with spreads narrowing significantly for 1 - 4y and passively narrowing for 5 - 15y, with a smaller narrowing amplitude at the long end [1][11] (2) Credit Strategy: Focus on Certain Coupon Opportunities - **Current Credit Spread Level**: 1 - 2y variety spreads have been compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term spreads still have some room compared to last year's lowest point. In a volatile bond market environment, the further compression space of credit spreads may be relatively limited [14][24] - **Current Credit Bond Yield Level**: Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry. Different varieties have different yield levels compared to R007 [25] II. Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 15th, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which mentioned improving diversified investment and financing methods and encouraging financial institutions to participate in urban renewal [33] - On May 15th, Vanke announced that its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, would provide a loan of up to 1.552 billion yuan to the company to repay the principal and interest of bonds issued in the public market [33] - On May 13th, seven departments jointly issued policies to include high - quality enterprise science and technology innovation bonds in the benchmark market - making varieties to improve their liquidity [34] III. Secondary Market - This week, credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend, and credit spreads generally narrowed. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, had different yield and spread changes [36][37] IV. Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 122.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 30.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 24.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity in the inter - bank market and the exchange market of credit bonds increased. The trading volume in the inter - bank market increased from 432 billion yuan last week to 550.1 billion yuan, and the trading volume in the exchange market increased from 234.1 billion yuan last week to 336.2 billion yuan [6] VI. Rating Adjustment - This week, there were 2 entities with downgraded ratings and 3 entities with upgraded ratings [6]

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市多头还有哪些底牌？ ——债市机构行为周报（5 月第 3 周） 报告日期： 2025-05-18 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 本周综述： ⚫[Table_Summary] 短期依然看震荡，利多因素存在不确定性但应维持债市久期 本周信用强，但利率震荡上行。我们上周提出短期震荡观点，主要是基 于宽货币环境下债熊出现概率不高+短期缺乏进一步的利多，从本周来 看，信用强但利率弱，3Y 中短票下行约 5bp，而 10Y 国债则震荡上行 近 5bp，信用利差整体收窄。 资金低于预期的相对转松是当前利率交易的主线。一方面，在双降前 DR007 的运行中枢大致在 1.70%附近，降息 10bp 后对应 1.60%整体符合 年内特征，但考虑到政策利率已经为 1.40%且 ...

新华财经上海5月16日电（记者杨溢仁）受信用债净供给维持相对低位，理财规模大概率转为增长，叠 加货币政策宽松重启等因素影响，近期信用债收益率不改震荡下探走势。 分析人士认为，现阶段信用债短端利率下行的确定性最强，投资建议以中短久期信用债作为底仓，品种 方面城投债仍是优选。 供需关系持续向好 中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供的数据显示，截至5月15日收盘，银行间信用债市场收益率整体下 行。举例来看，中债中短期票据收益率曲线（AAA）3年期下探1BP至1.83%，5年期收益率行至1.99% 附近；中债中短期票据收益率曲线（A）1年期回落1BP至7.16%。 不仅如此，就上周（5月5日至5月9日）来看，短短一周时间内，信用债1至3年期产品的收益率就下行了 5BP至7BP，5年期收益率下行了1BP至4BP。 据中金公司统计，5月5日至5月9日，城投债的发行规模仅有832亿元，净增量为-92亿元。 "在发行端未见明显放开，且化债深入推进的背景下，2024年以来，城投债开始缩量供给。"前述交易员 坦言，"城投债'刚兑金身'未破，加之理财等资金仍处配置区间，偏多因素集中发酵，为城投债走牛奠 定了坚实的基础。" "从二级成交 ...

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固定收益专题 2025 年 5 月 11 日 【华福固收】长端信用品种如何投资？ ➢ 收益率变动幅度：熊市长端信用债抗跌性较好 期限越长的信用债涨跌幅度通常小于期限较短的信用债，即在牛市阶段中短端 品种表现更好，但熊市阶段长端品种抗跌性更强。这个主要是受到品种流动性 和投资者结构的影响，短端品种交易灵活度较高、配置稳定性强，是大部分机 构投资者的持仓首选，而长端品种的持仓机构多为负债端稳定的投资者，买卖 力量相对较弱，整体较为稳定。 从信用债各个品种来看，和长端二永债相比，长端普信债的抗跌性更强。 ➢ 区间收益回报：牛市长端信用债综合收益更高 长端信用债在牛市中综合收益率表现突出，而在熊市中收益表现略输于短端 品种，震荡市中5-7Y的收益表现更好。在利率下行阶段，长久期品种的票息 收益和骑乘收益优势明显，持有体验比短端品种更佳，尤其是7-10Y的信用债 整体、中短票和二永债，区间涨幅大多在两位数以上。在利率震荡期间，无 论是普信债还是二级资本债，5-7Y的收益回报相对更好。 从信用债各个品种来看，5-7Y二级资本债在牛市中跑输普信债的概率更大，而 ...