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坚朗五金(002791):2025年半年报点评:行业底部业绩承压,海外加速拓展、费用管控趋严
Western Securities· 2025-09-02 07:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a loss in the first half of 2025 due to demand pressure, but achieved profitability in Q2 [1] - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion and has implemented stricter cost control measures [3] - The company’s revenue and net profit are projected to improve in the coming years, with expected net profits of 0.83 billion, 1.46 billion, and 2.09 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.755 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.30 billion, a decline of 722.32% [1] - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 1.549 billion, down 16.02% year-on-year but up 28.42% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.10 billion, down 79.94% year-on-year but up 125.07% quarter-on-quarter [1] Business Segments - Revenue from various product lines showed mixed results, with significant declines in door and window hardware systems and home products, while some segments like door control hardware systems saw growth [2] - Domestic revenue fell by 19.95% to 2.278 billion, while overseas revenue increased by 30.75% to 0.477 billion, with overseas revenue accounting for 17.32% of total revenue [2] Cost Management - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.90 percentage points to 30.27%, with increased asset impairment losses of 0.20 billion, up 65.78% year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin declined by 1.62 percentage points to -1.20% [3] Future Projections - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and profitability, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.24, 0.41, and 0.59 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]
坚朗五金(002791):降本增效逐见成效,海外业务增长快速
Ping An Securities· 2025-08-28 11:24
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1][5]. Core Views - The company continues to face pressure on its performance, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 14.2% in the latest report, resulting in a net loss of 0.3 million yuan compared to a profit of 489 thousand yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - The company has successfully reduced operating expenses from 900 million yuan to 770 million yuan, although the revenue decline has kept the expense ratio stable year-on-year [4]. - The overseas business is growing rapidly, with a revenue increase of 30.75% compared to a domestic decline of 19.95%. The gross margin for overseas sales is higher at 34.26% compared to 29.56% domestically [4]. - Despite a slight decrease in operating cash flow, accounts receivable have improved, decreasing from 3.85 billion yuan to 3.21 billion yuan year-on-year [4]. Financial Summary - The company is expected to have net profits of 0.9 million yuan, 1.5 million yuan, and 2.4 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, down from previous forecasts of 2.0 million yuan, 2.7 million yuan, and 3.3 million yuan [5]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 93 times, 55 times, and 34 times, respectively [5]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 5.974 billion yuan, 6.273 billion yuan, and 6.900 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -10.0%, 5.0%, and 10.0% [6][10]. - The gross margin is projected to be 30.6%, 31.0%, and 31.5% for the years 2025 to 2027 [10]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s asset-liability ratio is projected to be 39.7%, 37.1%, and 37.3% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 1.6% in 2025 to 4.0% in 2027 [10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.24 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.67 yuan, respectively [10].
坚朗五金(002791):国内需求承压,海外有望成为增长点
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-28 07:50
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 2.755 billion yuan, down 14.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of -30 million yuan, a decrease of 0.35 billion yuan [8][9] - Domestic real estate-related business is under pressure, while overseas growth is performing well, with overseas revenue increasing by 30.75% year-on-year [8][10] - The increase in raw material prices has pressured gross margins, leading to a decline in net profit due to reduced expense dilution [8][10] - The company is focusing on local operations overseas, which is expected to become a growth point [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023A is 7.802 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 6.638 billion yuan in 2024A and further to 6.259 billion yuan in 2025E, before recovering to 6.639 billion yuan in 2026E and 7.120 billion yuan in 2027E [7] - Net profit is expected to decrease to 76 million yuan in 2025E, followed by increases to 114 million yuan in 2026E and 190 million yuan in 2027E [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.21 yuan in 2025E, 0.32 yuan in 2026E, and 0.54 yuan in 2027E [7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 105.44x in 2025E, 70.04x in 2026E, and 42.22x in 2027E [7] Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from various product categories showed significant declines: door and window hardware systems (-17.60%), home products (-27.69%), and other construction hardware (-16.00%), while door and window accessories increased by 7.79% [8][10] - Domestic revenue was 2.278 billion yuan, down 19.95%, while overseas revenue reached 477 million yuan, up 30.75% [8][10] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 30.37%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points, primarily due to rising metal raw material prices [8][10] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of -204 million yuan, indicating a cash outflow compared to the previous year [8][10]