证券研究报告 腾讯控股 (700 HK) 港股通 4Q 广告预期稳健增长,AI 小程序加码 布局 2026 年 1 月 20 日│中国香港 互联网 我们预期腾讯 4Q25 营收同比增长 13%，经调整归母净利润同比增长 16% 至 643 亿。分业务看，4Q 游戏、广告、金融科技的收入有望分别同增 16%、 20%、9%。腾讯中短期催化剂来自：①26 年多款头部新游计划双端上线， 《逆战：未来》已稳居 iOS 畅销榜前列，我们预期其首年流水有望达 35-70 亿元；②广告投放效率持续受益于 AI，同时广告模型持续迭代；③微信上 线小程序 AI 代码开发工具，同时加大生态扶持力度，AI 小程序的 tokens 和渗透率中期有望释放。我们下调目标价至 792 港元，主因 4Q 游戏递延收 入预测略有调整，维持"买入"评级。 游戏业务：4Q 收入预期同增 16%，26 年头部储备丰富 我们预计腾讯 4Q 游戏收入同增 16%，环比增速放缓主因《三角洲》递延周 期较长，四季度国内暂无新游上线。《逆战：未来》双端已于 1 月 13 日上 线，官方 1 月 15 日宣布玩家规模突破 1000 万，我们预估首年流水有望达 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 792 HKD [6][5][28] Core Insights - Tencent's revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit projected to increase by 16% to 643 billion RMB [1] - Key growth drivers include the launch of multiple new games, improved advertising efficiency through AI, and enhanced support for AI mini-programs on WeChat [1][3][4] - The gaming segment is anticipated to see a 16% increase in revenue, while advertising revenue is expected to rise by 20% [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue for Q4 is projected to grow by 16%, with the new game "Counter-Strike: Future" expected to generate 35-70 billion RMB in its first year [2][12] - The game fills a gap in Tencent's PVE shooting game offerings and has already achieved over 10 million players shortly after launch [2][12][16] Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue is expected to grow by 9%, driven by a slowdown in social retail growth [3] - AI mini-programs are anticipated to enhance e-commerce and local services, with significant growth expected in 2026 [3][19] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue is projected to increase by 20%, driven by budget increases from long-tail advertisers and efficiency improvements from AI [4] - WeChat's advertising capabilities are evolving, with new features aimed at enhancing social commerce [4][19] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been slightly adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profit estimates also revised [5][24] - The target price of 792 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 21.6 for 2026, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [5][28][30]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The Chinese government has announced a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing expectations and boosting confidence in the economy, which includes measures from the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - The policy measures encompass various sectors, including monetary policy, capital markets, real estate, and the real economy, featuring both short-term relief and long-term structural arrangements [1] - The recent positive shift in China-US trade relations, with the resumption of negotiation channels, is expected to enhance market sentiment and act as a catalyst for the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 2: Asian Currency Movements - The recent fluctuations in Asian currencies are primarily driven by a reversal in carry trades and an increased demand for risk hedging amid a weakening US dollar [2] - The overall weakness of the dollar has led to a rapid appreciation of Asian currencies, which may cause volatility in global financial market liquidity [2] - The Hong Kong dollar remains relatively stable, with expectations of gradual improvement in liquidity due to a potential slowdown in southbound capital inflows and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3: Internet and Education Sector Performance - In April, stock prices of covered internet and education companies showed significant variation, with notable gains for companies like Cloud Music (+22%) and Youdao (+17%), while others like TAL Education saw a decline of -34% [5] - The upcoming Q1 earnings reports for Chinese internet companies are expected to reflect a recovery in demand, particularly in e-commerce and online travel agencies, with a low base effect potentially boosting expectations for the first half of 2025 [6] - The gaming and entertainment sectors are anticipated to maintain stable performance, with Tencent's games showing resilience and new releases from NetEase being closely monitored for revenue trends [6] Group 4: Market Data Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 22,692, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 13.12%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw a slight decline of -0.23% [3] - Key commodities such as Brent crude oil and gold have experienced significant price changes, with Brent down by 16.68% year-to-date, while gold has risen by 29.75% [3] - The report provides a detailed overview of major stock performances, highlighting fluctuations in share prices and market capitalizations across various sectors [9]