阿里美团大战外卖，抖音改造流量机制，同时进攻电商和本地生活市场。 文 丨 高洪浩 郑可书 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 今年，阿里巴巴、京东与美团的外卖大战已经耗去上千亿元，从奶茶打到快餐，再到 30 分钟送日杂 和线下到店消费。阿里在 8 月冲刺茶饮，外卖单量一度超过了美团。 抖音也有外卖与即时零售业务，规模在数百亿元的量级。今年也有团队调研了外卖市场，但没有卷入 外卖补贴战。与此同时，抖音同时在电商和到店消费市场蚕食三家的市场份额，默默成为混战赢家。 据《晚点 LatePost》了解，抖音电商今年前十个月的 GMV（完成支付的成交额）增速超 30%，全年 GMV 将迈过 4 万亿元关口，逼近拼多多水平。一年多以前，抖音电商的广告收入已超过阿里巴巴， 成为中国第一。 多位二级市场投资人分析，淘宝的支付 GMV 在 6 万亿元的体量。如果双方都保持目前的增速， 要不 了几年就会被赶上 。不过抖音电商的退货率远高于淘宝，如果看最终的结算 GMV，双方仍有较大差 距。 抖音生活服务业务在今年同样大幅增长，前十个月增速接近 60%，全年 GTV（主要为到店消费贡献 的成交额）预计将超 8000 亿元。据我们了解，美团 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Vipshop, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the e-commerce sector [17][20][21]. Core Insights - The overall e-commerce sales during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival reached 1,695 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [5][24]. - JD.com achieved record sales during the 11.11 event, with a 40% increase in the number of orders and nearly 60% growth in order volume [2][26]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the local life services sector, particularly Meituan, which maintains long-term competitive advantages despite competitive pressures [17]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Sector - The report emphasizes the low valuations of leading e-commerce companies, recommending Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Vipshop as key investment opportunities [17][20]. - Alibaba's e-commerce monetization rate is steadily improving, with significant growth potential in its cloud and AI businesses [17]. - Pinduoduo is expected to see sustainable growth driven by its support plan for merchants and improving global market prospects [20]. Local Life Services - Meituan's long-term investment value remains intact despite short-term competitive disruptions, with a focus on high-value users and operational efficiency [17]. Travel and Tourism - The travel sector is projected to maintain high growth, with recommendations for companies in the OTA and scenic spots, as well as transportation and hotel sectors driven by business travel demand [17]. - The report notes that the restaurant and tourism index rose by 4.81%, outperforming major indices [5][6]. Retail Sector - The report suggests focusing on quality retail trends, with companies like Yonghui adapting to consumer trust and product quality [17]. - The retail sector is experiencing significant growth, with notable increases in various product categories during the Double Eleven sales [5][24].

Consumer Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focused on supply-side structural reforms, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes direct stimulation of demand, aiming to significantly boost consumer spending and enhance domestic circulation [2][3] - The goal of the "15th Five-Year Plan" includes increasing the consumer rate and ensuring that domestic demand continues to be the main driver of economic growth, with expectations for retail sales growth to outpace GDP growth [3] - Policies such as government and enterprise subsidies are expected to directly stimulate consumer spending, with a shift from structural optimization to activating consumption [2][3] E-commerce and Retail Innovations - New retail models like live streaming and instant retail are emerging growth areas, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou to create new consumer scenarios [4] - Instant retail is evolving from meeting urgent needs to catering to a broader range of consumer demands, creating a positive feedback loop that drives both supply and demand [4][5] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" calls for expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services, with e-commerce platforms expected to focus on balancing price and quality [3][5] Travel and Tourism - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the quality of tourism services and promote the integration of culture and tourism, with OTA platforms playing a key role in this transformation [6][7] - Domestic tourism is being enriched through cultural elements, while inbound tourism policies are being optimized to lower barriers and enhance the experience for international visitors [7][8] - OTA platforms are responding to national policies by expanding their service offerings and improving the overall travel experience for both domestic and international tourists [6][7] Technology and AI Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating AI innovation and application, with a focus on enhancing efficiency in existing businesses and driving new demand through AI technologies [9][10] - The demand for cloud computing is surging due to the growing need for AI applications, with Chinese cloud providers expected to benefit significantly from this trend [10] - AI applications are anticipated to revolutionize content production and advertising, with platforms leveraging AI to enhance user engagement and operational efficiency [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Dazhong Dianping is investing at least 3 billion in the next five years to upgrade its "local life information infrastructure," emphasizing the importance of accurate and timely information in the local life industry [1][2][7]. User's Real Needs - Users often face issues due to incomplete or inaccurate information, leading to poor experiences, highlighting the necessity for comprehensive and truthful information [3][6]. - Accurate information is fundamental for user decision-making and is essential for maintaining trust between users and platforms [6][14]. Industry Trends - The local life sector has become a focal point in consumer markets since Meituan introduced the concept, with significant competition emerging among platforms [4][11]. - The O2O market in China is projected to reach 3.9 trillion yuan by 2025, growing at 17.6% annually, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [11]. Competitive Landscape - The competition among local life platforms often centers around metrics like traffic, subsidies, and user scale, but the true competitive edge lies in the accuracy of information rather than short-term incentives [11][12]. - Platforms can attract traffic through marketing, but inaccurate information can lead to low conversion rates and negative reputations [12]. Information Infrastructure - Dazhong Dianping's investment in information infrastructure aims to ensure accurate and timely reflection of the physical world, which is crucial for user decision-making [7][20]. - The platform's ability to gather and verify information is a comprehensive test of its capabilities, requiring significant resources and user feedback [20][21]. Trust and User Engagement - Establishing trust through reliable information allows platforms to create a positive feedback loop, where accurate data attracts quality users, leading to more authentic reviews and engagement [14][22]. - Dazhong Dianping has built a strong user base that relies on its platform for decision-making, further enhancing its information ecosystem [22]. Future Directions - The company plans to continue investing in its infrastructure to serve as a "global dynamic yellow pages" for consumers, leveraging AI to enhance its offerings in the local life sector [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strongly recommend" rating for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Vipshop, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the e-commerce sector [19][21][22]. Core Insights - The e-commerce sector is expected to see a steady increase in profitability, with a focus on Alibaba's improving monetization rate and growth potential in cloud services [19][21]. - The local lifestyle segment remains competitive, with Meituan's long-term value and competitive edge intact despite short-term disruptions [19]. - The travel sector is projected to maintain high growth, with recommendations for companies in the OTA and scenic areas, as well as transportation and hotel sectors driven by business travel demand [19][21]. Summary by Sections E-commerce - The report highlights the low valuation of leading e-commerce companies, recommending Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Vipshop as key investment opportunities [19][21]. - Alibaba's e-commerce monetization rate is steadily improving, with significant growth in its food delivery business and cloud services [21]. Local Lifestyle - Meituan's competitive position remains strong despite increased competition in the food delivery market, with a focus on high-value users and operational efficiency [19]. Travel and Transportation - The travel sector is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with recommendations for companies closely related to leisure travel and outbound tourism [19][21]. - Companies like Atour and Changbai Mountain are highlighted as key players in the travel industry [19]. Market Performance - The restaurant and tourism sector index rose by 1.26%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, while the retail sector index fell by 0.92% [6][8]. - The report notes significant growth in new customer orders during the Double 11 shopping festival, with over 100 million orders recorded for Taobao Flash Sale [2][27]. Company Performance - Key companies in the restaurant and tourism sector, such as Quanjude and Caesar Travel, showed notable stock performance, with increases of 11.47% and 10.08% respectively [10][12]. - In the retail sector, Dongbai Group and Tianhong Co. also demonstrated strong performance, with increases of 10.16% and 4.81% respectively [17][23].

Core Viewpoint - The internet sector is entering a new expansion phase after a three-year period of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with AI, overseas expansion, and instant retail as key investment areas [2][3]. Group 1: Expansion Strategies - Caution is advised regarding domestic consumption market expansion strategies due to insufficient macroeconomic support and industry penetration rates, which may lead to negative impacts in most cases [3]. - Overseas expansion is viewed positively as it breaks the domestic market ceiling, but challenges exist depending on whether the expansion involves virtual products, goods, or services [3]. - AI and technology-related expansions are highly favored, as they are less constrained by domestic market limitations and represent areas previously overlooked by the Chinese internet sector [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The internet sector is experiencing a shift in valuation methods, with a focus on EPS during the 2023-2024 period, leading to potential undervaluation of businesses that do not contribute to EPS [4]. - The AI narrative is expected to drive future valuation adjustments, as seen with companies like Alibaba and Meitu, which have begun to be revalued based on their AI applications [4]. Group 3: E-commerce and Local Services - The e-commerce market is projected to show resilience, benefiting from national subsidies and instant retail, although growth rates may slow in 2026 due to base effects [6]. - The local services market is experiencing intensified competition, particularly in the food delivery sector, with penetration rates increasing from 14% to 16% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Future Catalysts and Drivers - The overseas e-commerce market is expected to accelerate its transformation due to significant tariff disruptions, while instant retail is anticipated to become a new growth point, albeit with limited profit expectations initially [7]. - Domestic and outbound tourism markets are returning to rational growth, with domestic travel showing steady growth and outbound flights recovering to pre-pandemic levels [9]. Group 5: Cloud Computing and AI - The demand for AI in China is robust, with significant growth in various sectors, including internet, gaming, and finance, driving the need for GPU cloud services [11]. - Chinese cloud providers are increasing their capital expenditure on AI infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion yuan over three years to enhance its AI capabilities [12]. - AI is expected to significantly enhance existing business efficiencies, with new applications emerging in media and content production [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consumer awareness and effective complaint channels during the winter season, which sees a rise in seasonal consumption activities such as ice and snow tourism, hot spring vacations, and holiday shopping [1][8]. Group 1: Identifying Risks Before Consumption - Consumers are encouraged to research merchants' reputations and service quality before making payments or placing orders to avoid potential pitfalls [1]. - Key methods for risk identification include checking online reviews on platforms like Meituan, Dazhong Dianping, and Ctrip, focusing on negative feedback to gauge service reliability [6]. - Consumers should also investigate whether a business has a history of complaints, particularly in areas like bundled sales or refund delays, to assess service reliability [6]. - Awareness of common dispute types in specific industries during peak seasons can help consumers verify details more effectively [6]. Group 2: Complaint Channels - Official administrative complaint channels include the national 12315 platform, which handles various consumer rights issues, and the 12345 government service hotline for local grievances [3]. - Industry self-regulatory organizations, such as the China Travel Service Association, can provide effective resolution in specific sectors [3]. - Third-party online complaint platforms like Black Cat Complaints offer quick and user-friendly options for consumers seeking to resolve issues with businesses [3][7]. Group 3: Features of Black Cat Complaints - Black Cat Complaints supports multiple submission methods, including website, app, and mini-program, enhancing user convenience [4]. - The platform has a robust enterprise response mechanism, featuring modules like "Enterprise Reply Ranking" to encourage businesses to address consumer issues proactively [5]. - Users can track the status of their complaints in real-time, with clear categorization and matching to the appropriate customer service representatives [7]. Group 4: Choosing the Right Complaint Channel by Industry - Different industries require tailored complaint approaches; for example, tourism and hotel issues are best addressed through Black Cat Complaints or the 12301 tourism hotline [8]. - Telecommunications and network package complaints can be directed to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's complaint platform in addition to 12315 [8]. - Financial and insurance disputes should be prioritized through the 12378 hotline of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission [8]. Group 5: Conclusion - The article concludes that rational consumption and effective use of complaint tools are essential for enjoying the winter season while minimizing disputes [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - Meituan is actively engaging in capital and business strategies, including significant employee stock incentives and bond issuance, to strengthen its long-term growth prospects and support its international expansion efforts [2][3]. Group 1: Employee Incentives - On October 28, Meituan announced the grant of a total of 11.8286 million restricted stock units to employees and service providers, with over 99% allocated to internal teams, marking the second large-scale equity incentive of the year [2]. - This move follows the Q1 financial report revealing a record high in annual transaction users, indicating a commitment to retaining core talent and boosting long-term growth confidence [2]. Group 2: Bond Issuance - On October 29, Meituan issued five types of senior notes in both USD and RMB, with a total scale exceeding $1.9 billion and 7.08 billion RMB before fees [2]. - The USD notes include three tranches with maturities in 2031 (4.5% interest), 2032 (4.75%), and 2035 (5.125%), totaling approximately $1.9937 billion; the RMB notes have maturities in 2030 (2.55%) and 2035 (3.1%), totaling 7.08 billion RMB [2]. Group 3: Business Expansion - Analysts suggest that the bond issuance is primarily aimed at refinancing old debt while supporting Meituan's accelerated international expansion into markets like Saudi Arabia and Brazil, as well as investments in instant retail infrastructure [3]. - On the same day, Meituan's instant delivery service announced the "Brand Officer Flagship Lightning Warehouse" plan, which aims to enhance its instant retail strategy by allowing consumers to receive orders within 30 minutes in major cities [3]. Group 4: Operational Metrics - Meituan's instant delivery service has achieved a peak of over 27 million non-food daily orders, addressing traditional e-commerce delivery challenges and aiming to capture consumer interest ahead of the Double 11 shopping festival [4]. - The company also announced nationwide coverage of rider pension insurance subsidies, allowing over 7 million riders to choose their insurance locations, which enhances the stability of its instant delivery network [4]. Group 5: Financial Performance - Meituan reported a revenue of 91.8 billion RMB for Q2 2025, but adjusted profits fell by 89% year-on-year to 1.49 billion RMB, indicating challenges in navigating industry competition and economic cycles [4].

Group 1: Local Life and E-commerce - The competition in local life services is expected to continue in Q4 2025, with major platforms like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba intensifying their investments in delivery services and instant retail [2][3] - In Q2 2025, Meituan, JD, and Alibaba reported significant losses in local life services, but these losses are anticipated to peak in Q3 due to increased summer demand and promotional activities [2][3] - The e-commerce sector is experiencing reduced competitive pressure, with online retail sales reaching 1.02 trillion yuan in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [4] Group 2: Tourism and Hospitality - The tourism sector is witnessing a recovery, with a 7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional travel during the National Day holiday, indicating a shift in traveler preferences towards experiential travel [7][8] - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) are benefiting from the overall growth in tourism, with major players maintaining stable performance despite increased competition from new entrants [7] - The hotel industry is expected to reach a bottoming out phase, with leading companies like Jinjiang and Huazhu showing resilience and potential for profit recovery in Q4 2025 [10][11] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Goods - The offline retail sector is undergoing significant transformations, with supermarkets like Yonghui Supermarket expected to complete major store renovations, leading to improved profitability [9] - The retail landscape is shifting towards quality retail, with community stores like convenience stores maintaining high growth rates, while traditional department stores face slower growth [9] - The mother and baby retail sector is benefiting from supportive government policies and adjustments in store formats, leading to a notable recovery in same-store sales [14] Group 4: Cross-border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce is experiencing profit differentiation due to external factors like tariffs, with platform-based companies showing stable performance while product-based companies seek innovative advantages [12][13] - The sales peak for cross-border e-commerce is anticipated in the second half of 2025, driven by promotional events like Amazon's Prime Day, which saw a 30.3% increase in online spending [12][13] Group 5: Recommendations - Key investment targets include Yonghui Supermarket, Alibaba, Meituan, and various hotel chains such as Jinjiang and Huazhu, reflecting a diversified approach across sectors [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a weekly increase of 0.37% from October 9 to October 10, 2025, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.86% during the same period [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 5.48% and the Nasdaq Index dropped by 2.53% from October 6 to October 10, 2025 [1][2] - The Media Index saw a decline of 3.59% from October 9 to October 10, 2025, and the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index decreased by 5.82% during the same week [1][2] AI Developments - OpenAI launched its flagship video and audio generation model Sora2 on September 30, 2025, which can perform complex tasks previously deemed impossible, such as simulating gymnastics movements and creating realistic soundscapes [3][4] - Tencent released its multimodal image generation model HunyuanImage3.0, which has 80 billion parameters, making it the largest open-source model in the industry [3][5] Semiconductor Sector - Dell Technologies updated its long-term financial framework, projecting annual revenue growth of 7-9%, doubling its previous forecast of 3-4% [6] - Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in xAI to fund the Colossus2 supercomputer's GPUs [6] - TSMC reported a September 2025 revenue of approximately NT$330.98 billion, a 1.4% decrease from the previous month but a 31.4% increase year-over-year [6] Autonomous Driving - Didi Autonomous Driving secured a Series D funding round totaling 2 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing AI research and promoting L4 autonomous driving applications [7] Local Lifestyle - Gaode's "Street Ranking" feature reached over 400 million users within 23 days of launch, with a 300% increase in traffic for featured local shops [8] E-commerce - The 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival commenced, with Douyin reporting an 800% year-over-year increase in brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales on the first day [9] Smartphone Market - Xiaomi captured a 21.2% market share during the Golden Week from September 29 to October 5, 2025, surpassing Apple to become the top smartphone seller in China [10] Film Industry - The box office for the 2025 National Day holiday reached 1.835 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for 98.93% of the total [12] Gaming Sector - The game "Ither" launched on September 25, 2025, achieving 317,000 downloads on its first day and topping the iOS free game charts in five out of six targeted markets [13]