Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price was adjusted in the first half of February, and the pre - holiday driving force is expected to be weak. Maersk's WEEK6 quotation was unexpectedly lowered, and the valuation of the delivery settlement price of the 02 contract was revised down. The cancellation of the VAT export tax refund policy for products such as photovoltaic may disrupt the off - season attributes of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase in the near term. The attempt of Maersk to resume sailing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will disrupt the expectations of more distant contracts. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is driven by a bearish trend [1][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of January 21, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 60,286.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 28,032.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1707.20, 1129.70, 1378.00, 1486.10, 1074.70, and 1326.70 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route showed different prices for different time periods. For example, Maersk's WEEK5 price was 1520/2440, and WEEK6 was 1265/2010. The spot price has loosened, with MSC's price in the second half of January revised down to 2640 US dollars/FEU, and Maersk's WEEK6 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote at 2000 - 2100 US dollars/FEU [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 are provided. In general, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 342,200 TEU, 273,700 TEU in February, and 289,700 TEU in March. There were 2 TBNs and 8 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. 4. Supply Chain - CMA CGM has decided to divert ships on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex and uncertain international situation [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January was at a relatively high level within the year. The cancellation of the VAT export tax refund policy for photovoltaic products may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe can increase significantly in February and March and whether the actual freight rates will be firmer than in normal years [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Maersk lowered the WEEK5 quotation, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The final trading day of the EC2602 contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures is February 9, 2026, and its delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - period delivery settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. Currently, the valuation of the 02 contract is taking shape, but it will be affected by Maersk's next - week quotation and the price correction of the PA Alliance [7][8]. - The policy of canceling the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the off - season characteristics of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase in the near future. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can rise significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 13, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures was 62,795.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 54,738.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1720.40, 1199.70, 1413.50, 1529.90, 1107.40, and 1372.10 respectively [10]. 2. Spot Price - On January 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1719 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2218 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 3128 dollars/FEU. On January 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1323.98 points [10]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. From 2026 - 2029, there are clear delivery plans for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [4]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK3/4/5 were 318,100/361,000/306,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in February was 277,300 TEU, and there were 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings. The average weekly capacity in March was 281,600 TEU, and there were 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4]. 5. Demand and European Economy - In October 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports to the European market were about 7.55 GW, a decrease of about 31% compared with September and an increase of 8% compared with the same month in 2024. From January to October, the cumulative exports to the European market were about 91 GW, an increase of 8% compared with the previous year. After excluding the Netherlands, France ranked second in terms of single - month imports of photovoltaic modules from China [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 2 - month contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of the month. The 02 contract is expected to have a delivery settlement price between 1750 - 1850 points under relatively pessimistic estimates, and its valuation support is expected to be in this range. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards, but the situation of contracts in June and August remains uncertain. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and there is no arbitrage strategy currently [5][6][7][9] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 8, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 58,139.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 46,089.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1706.00, 1163.30, 1415.00, 1527.40, 1105.20, and 1343.00 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping companies vary. For example, in the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk's price in the fourth week of January was 1685/2710; HPL's quotes in the first and second half - months of January and the first half - month of February were 1835/3035. Different alliances and shipping companies also have different price quotes and changes [1][2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. In terms of delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 318,600 TEU, and in February it was 283,500 TEU, and in March it was 279,000 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in January, 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings in February, and 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs in March [4] 4. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is progressing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, which will put pressure on the far - month contract prices [7] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. The demand situation is affected by factors such as the approaching Spring Festival [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The February contract is expected to be volatile and bullish. - Arbitrage: None [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation center of the February contract is constantly moving up, and attention should be paid to the opening price of Maersk. The EC2602 contract's valuation continues to rise, and its delivery settlement price basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. In a relatively pessimistic scenario, the delivery settlement price of the 02 contract is estimated to be between 1,750 - 1,850 points, and recent attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of January. - Far - month contracts face pressure from the resumption of navigation in the Suez Canal, and their valuations are suppressed, but the extent is uncertain. Contracts in the off - season face valuation pressure, while contracts in June and August (slightly peak seasons) still face uncertainties. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [1][5][6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotations: Different shipping companies' Shanghai - Rotterdam quotations in January show price fluctuations. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes increased from the second week to the third week in January; HPL's quotes also changed in different periods of January and February [1] 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply Analysis - Geopolitical: Saudi Arabia invited local Yemeni armed forces to dialogue, and the Southern Transitional Council welcomed it [3] - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEUs have been delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 are provided. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17,000 + TEU ships from 2027 - 2029 exceeds 40 [3] - Dynamic supply: The monthly average weekly capacity from January to March 2026 is provided, along with the number of empty flights and TBNs in each month [4] 3.3 Contract Analysis - EC2602 contract: The online quotes of MSC and Maersk in the second half of January continued to rise, and the contract's valuation increased. The delivery settlement price reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Under different assumptions, the estimated delivery settlement price range is 1,750 - 1,850 points [5][6] - Far - month contracts: They face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards. However, contracts in June and August still face uncertainties. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [6] 3.4 Market Data - As of January 5, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 58,167 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 33,061 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. The SCFI prices of different routes on December 26, 2025, and the SCFIS prices on January 5, 2026, are also given [7]