Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yu Junchen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) continued to decline first and then returned to low - amplitude fluctuations. As of the close, the prices of all EC monthly contracts declined. The decline was due to the relatively weak fundamental support and the attempt of some shipping companies to resume routes in the Red Sea, which brought negative sentiment. In the short term, with geopolitical and tariff issues remaining unstable, the futures prices are likely to continue to fluctuate. Strategies can generally remain on the sidelines or focus on short - term operations, and there are still opportunities for low - buying in the December contract [3]. Grouped Key Points EC Risk Management Strategy - For companies with purchased shipping spaces but full capacity or poor booking volumes and worried about freight rate drops, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [2]. - For companies aiming to manage costs, when shipping companies increase blank sailings or enter the peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to fix booking costs in advance [2]. Market Situation Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Maersk's cabin opening quotes at the end of October were the same as the previous two periods, indicating successful price support in mid - to late October. Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag - Lloyd all issued price increase letters for November. An Israeli senior official denied reports of a Gaza cease - fire agreement [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The offline PA alliance reduced freight rates to $1500 per FEU. SeaLead and CMA CGM announced route reforms and upgrades [4]. EC Data - **EC Basis Changes**: On October 16, 2025, the basis and its daily and weekly changes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 are provided in the report [5][6]. - **EC Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices, daily and weekly price changes, and price spreads of different EC contracts on October 16, 2025, are presented [6]. Shipping Quotes - **Container Spot Quotes**: Maersk's 20GP and 40GP quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam on different dates in October showed increases, while some of CMA CGM's quotes decreased [8]. - **Global Freight Rate Indexes**: The latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various global freight rate indexes such as SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX are provided [9]. Port and Shipping Data - **Port Waiting Times**: The waiting times at major global ports on October 15, 2025, and their changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year are presented [16]. - **Shipping Speeds and Waiting Ships**: The average speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships on October 15, 2025, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages are provided, along with their changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) continued its oscillating trend as expected. By the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed results. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional investors on the exchange, the long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 1,523 lots to 18,659 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,060 lots to 19,737 lots. The trading volume decreased by 16,778 lots to 26,471 lots (bilateral). As previously expected, some investors gradually closed their positions approaching the National Day holiday [3]. - The positive impact from the rebound in spot cabin quotes has weakened, with no significant change in European Line spot cabin quotes today, making the impact neutral. Trump's additional tariffs on certain specific commodities brought a slight negative impact from a macro - sentiment perspective. In the remaining two trading days next week, attention should still be paid to the risks brought by pre - holiday capital fluctuations. The latest SCFI European Line dropped below $1,000/TEU, which may bring certain negative factors to the market. In the short term, the futures price is more likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward; the 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and overall, it is mainly advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Advice - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and is worried about the decline in freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and a recommended entry range of 1,250 - 1,350 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they hope to book cabins according to order situations (short spot exposure), to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and a recommended entry range of 1,000 - 1,100 [2]. 利多解读 - Maersk's European Line spot cabin quotes for mid - October stopped falling and rebounded significantly, and in the following two weeks, MSC's European Line spot cabin quotes also followed with a slight rebound [4]. 利空解读 - On September 25, Eastern Time, US President Trump announced on social media that starting from October 1, a batch of imported goods would be subject to additional tariffs, including brand drugs, heavy trucks, kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, and upholstered furniture. Specifically, "any brand or patented drugs" entering the country will be subject to a 100% tariff, but companies building pharmaceutical factories in the US will be exempted. The US will also impose a 25% tariff on all imported heavy trucks, a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, and a 30% tariff on imported upholstered furniture [5]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 26, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 115.92 points, with a daily increase of 34.00 points and a weekly decrease of 88.50 points; the basis of EC2512 was - 522.08 points, with a daily increase of 6.10 points and a weekly decrease of 147.00 points; the basis of EC2602 was - 430.08 points, with a daily increase of 11.20 points and a weekly decrease of 122.50 points; the basis of EC2604 was - 13.68 points, with a daily increase of 16.50 points and a weekly decrease of 18.60 points; the basis of EC2606 was - 228.58 points, with a daily decrease of 1.20 points and a weekly decrease of 229.72 points; the basis of EC2608 was - 362.28 points, with a daily increase of 10.80 points and a weekly decrease of 207.62 points [6][7]. EC Price and Spread - On September 26, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1,139.0 points, with a daily increase of 5.26% and a weekly increase of 6.07%; the closing price of EC2512 was 1,777.0 points, with a daily increase of 5.10% and a weekly increase of 8.38%; the closing price of EC2602 was 1,685.0 points, with a daily increase of 6.81% and a weekly increase of 8.31%; the closing price of EC2604 was 1,268.6 points, with a daily increase of 2.21% and a weekly increase of 2.38%; the closing price of EC2606 was 1,483.5 points, with a daily increase of 2.56% and a weekly increase of 1.98%; the closing price of EC2608 was 1,617.2 points, with a daily increase of 2.29% and a weekly increase of 1.07% [7]. - Regarding price spreads, EC2510 - 2602 was - 523.2 points, with a daily decrease of 49.5 points and a weekly decrease of 63 points; EC2602 - 2606 was 213.9 points, with a daily increase of 71.1 points and a weekly increase of 101.3 points; EC2606 - 2510 was 309.3 points, with a daily decrease of 21.6 points and a weekly decrease of 38.3 points; EC2510 - 2512 was - 610.1 points, with a daily decrease of 28.0 points and a weekly decrease of 70.7 points; EC2512 - 2602 was 86.9 points, with a daily decrease of 21.5 points and a weekly decrease of 14.8 points; EC2602 - 2604 was 411.1 points, with a daily increase of 84 points and a weekly increase of 100.2 points [7]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes (CY - CY, Shanghai - Rotterdam) - On October 15, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1,139, a $5 increase from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1,900, a $10 increase from the previous period. On October 17, the total quote for 20GP was $1,085, a $5 increase from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1,810, a $10 increase from the previous period [9]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European Line was 1,254.92 points, a decrease of 185.32 points (- 12.87%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFIS for the US West Line was 1,193.64 points, a decrease of 156.2 points (- 11.57%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFI for the European Line was $971/TEU, a decrease of $81 (- 7.70%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFI for the US West Line was $1,460/FEU, a decrease of $176 (- 10.76%) from the previous value; the latest value of XSI for the European Line was $1,874/FEU, a decrease of $42 (- 2.19%) from the previous value; the latest value of XSI for the US West Line was $1,844/FEU, a decrease of $27 (- 1.4%) from the previous value; the latest value of the FBX Composite Freight Rate Index was $1,863/FEU, a decrease of $2 (- 0.11%) from the previous value [10]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 25, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 2.079 days, an increase of 0.306 days from the previous day and 0.757 days from the same period last year; at Shanghai Port, it was 1.358 days, an increase of 0.068 days from the previous day and a decrease of 0.282 days from the same period last year; at Yantian Port, it was 0.638 days, an increase of 0.178 days from the previous day and a decrease of 0.204 days from the same period last year; at Singapore Port, it was 2.013 days, an increase of 0.846 days from the previous day and 1.411 days from the same period last year; at Jakarta Port, it was 0.924 days, a decrease of 0.174 days from the previous day and 0.863 days from the same period last year; at Long Beach Port, it was 1.935 days, a decrease of 0.344 days from the previous day and 0.337 days from the same period last year; at Savannah Port, it was 2.241 days, an increase of 0.763 days from the previous day and 0.892 days from the same period last year [15]. Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 25, 2025, the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 8,000 was 15.398 knots, a decrease of 0.03 knots from the previous day and 0.365 knots from the same period last year; the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 3,000 was 14.567 knots, an increase of 0.034 knots from the previous day and a decrease of 0.564 knots from the same period last year; the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 1,000 was 13.228 knots, a decrease of 0.074 knots from the previous day and 0.217 knots from the same period last year. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 32, an increase of 17 from the previous day and 21 from the same period last year [24].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - Today, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened higher and fluctuated. By the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. The short - term futures prices are likely to continue the oscillatory trend, and low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract can be continuously monitored, with an overall approach of waiting and watching or quick in - and - out trading [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor during the peak season, and there are concerns about falling freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's position to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and an entry range of 1100 - 1200 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book shipping space based on order situations, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to pre - determine the shipping space booking cost. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and an entry range of 900 - 1000 [2]. Core Contradiction - As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. For the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 846 lots to 26004 lots, short positions increased by 334 lots to 27322 lots, and trading volume increased by 15727 lots to 51358 lots (bilateral). After the futures prices, especially the prices of the main contract, had basically maintained a large decline in the previous two weeks and reached a short - term low, they rebounded at the low level today as the current spot cabin quotes of mainstream shipping companies on the European line were basically stable. As it is the last week before the holiday, the risks brought by pre - holiday capital fluctuations also need to be monitored this week [3]. 利多解读 - The Israeli military stated that after about two weeks of intensive preparation, the troops of the 36th Division have started to enter Gaza City as part of the "Chariot of Gideon 2" operation to expand the scope of operations. In addition, the Israeli military also said that in recent days, under the leadership of the divisional firepower command post, the Israel Defense Forces carried out strikes on dozens of military targets in the Gaza Strip to separate the combat areas and allow ground troops to enter the area [4]. 利空解读 - Evergreen and ONE continued to lower the current spot cabin quotes on the European line for early October. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different degrees of decline for each contract [5]. Price and Spread - The closing prices and price changes of each EC contract on September 22, 2025 are as follows: EC2510 closed at 1093.7 points, with a daily increase of 4.11% and a weekly decrease of 5.97%; EC2512 closed at 1653.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.47% and a weekly decrease of 0.14%; EC2602 closed at 1573.6 points, with a daily increase of 0.71% and a weekly increase of 3.74%; EC2604 closed at 1275.0 points, with a daily increase of 1.94% and a weekly increase of 1.68%; EC2606 closed at 1454.5 points, with a daily increase of 1.07% and a weekly increase of 1.58%; EC2608 closed at 1609.0 points, with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly increase of 0.33% [6]. Spot Cabin Quotes - According to the data of the "European Line Freight Rate Note" on the day, on October 6, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $840, and the total quote for 40GP was $1400, both remaining the same as the previous period. On October 2, for Evergreen Marine's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $950, a decrease of $50 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1500, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period. In early October, for ONE's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $915, a decrease of $300 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP remained the same as the previous period at $1435 [8]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest values, previous values, price changes, and percentage changes of various global freight rate indexes are as follows: SCFIS for the European line decreased by 12.87% to 1254.92 points; SCFIS for the US - West line increased by 37.67% to 1349.84 points; SCFI for the European line decreased by 8.84% to $1052 per TEU; SCFI for the US - West line decreased by 30.97% to $1636 per FEU; XSI for the European line decreased by 0.40% to $1983 per FEU; XSI for the US - West line decreased by 4.0% to $2159 per FEU [9]. Port Waiting Time - The waiting times and their daily changes at major global ports on September 21, 2025 are as follows: Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.706 days to 1.773 days; Shanghai Port decreased by 0.086 days to 1.596 days; Yantian Port increased by 0.072 days to 0.951 days; Singapore Port increased by 0.106 days to 0.548 days; Jakarta Port increased by 0.625 days to 2.114 days; Long Beach Port increased by 0.392 days to 2.048 days; Savannah Port increased by 0.280 days to 1.083 days [15]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity - The speeds and their daily changes of different container ship types on September 21, 2025 are as follows: for ships with a capacity of over 8000, the speed decreased by 0.148 knots to 15.516 knots; for ships with a capacity of over 3000, the speed increased by 0.143 knots to 14.827 knots; for ships with a capacity of over 1000, the speed decreased by 0.133 knots to 13.098 knots. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage decreased by 10 to 15 ships [24].

EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1250~1350 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1000~1100 | | source： 南华期货 | | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货（EC）价格震荡略偏弱。 截至收盘，EC各合约价格都有不同程度回落。从 交易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看，EC2510合约多头减仓1351手至26470手，空头减仓1337手至27460 手，交易量减少23795手至23360手（双边）。 如此前预期，近月合约较前期 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the container shipping industry by Nanhua Futures, focusing on the European Line (EC) container shipping index futures [1] - It provides insights into market trends, trading strategies, and industry news for the week of September 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report [1] Group 3: Core Views - The core factors affecting the EC price are the spot cabin quotes on the European line and weak off - season demand. The continuous decline of spot cabin quotes in late September led to a weakening of the futures price [1] - In the short - term, the futures price may continue to oscillate slightly downward, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound as it has reached a short - term low [4] - In the long - term, if the Red Sea resumes shipping due to geopolitical changes, or if the off - season demand further weakens, the European line freight rates may decline [7] Group 4: Trading Strategies Trading - Type Strategy - The trend is a continuation of the downward momentum. The short - term support for the main contract is in the range of 1050 - 1100, and the pressure level is in the range of 1200 - 1250 [9][10] - For hedging, one can sell at high positions, but also pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of the 12 - contract at 1550 - 1600 points [10] Arbitrage Strategy - For the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [12] Industrial Customer Operation Strategy - For the spot - futures (basis) strategy, traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [12] - For the cabin management of enterprises with full capacity or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. For cost management, when the shipping company's empty - sailing intensity increases or the peak season is approaching, they can buy the container shipping index futures to lock in the booking cost [13] Group 5: Market Information Positive News - In the first eight months of 2025, the EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.88 trillion yuan, a 4.3% increase [27] - The Israeli Prime Minister's statement about the cease - fire in Gaza may potentially ease geopolitical tensions [27] - In the first half of 2025, China's cross - border e - commerce imports and exports showed a prosperous trend, with a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [27] Negative News - Mexico plans to impose up to 50% tariffs on Chinese and some Asian products [31] - The spot cabin quotes on the European line of major shipping companies continued to decline in late September, with Maersk and MSC's small - container quotes falling below $1000 [31] - The SCFI European line declined rapidly [31] Group 6: Market Analysis Single - Side Trend and Capital Flow - The EC futures price continued to oscillate weakly, guided by the spot booking price. Technically, the moving averages are in a short - position arrangement, with a slight downward expectation [30] - The net short - position of the main positions in container shipping decreased slightly, indicating a cautious trading sentiment [32] Basis Structure - The SCFIS European line continued to decline, with the basis narrowing compared to the previous week. Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [34] Inter - Period Structure - The spreads of the EC2510 - 2512 and EC2510 - 2602 contract combinations widened significantly. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [36][37] Group 7: Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, major shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING, Maersk, and CMA CGM had relatively good profit and revenue performance, while some companies like ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits [39] - For the second half of the year, shipping companies believe that the uncertainty has increased, and they will focus more on cost control, which may affect freight rates from the supply and cost sides [39]