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【期货热点追踪】主流船司相继开启6月GRI窗口期,集运欧线是否仍有上行空间?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-21 02:06
集运欧线主力合约早盘低开低走,日内跌幅超2%,最低跌至2261.0点。昨日盘中涨幅超6%,最终收涨 4.36%,瑞达期货表示,原因是贸易战局势好转带动欧线近月合约大幅上涨。但贸易战不确定性尚存, 因此远月合约综合表现远不及近月合约。 消息面上,极羽科技提供的数据显示,上海至洛杉矶航线,截至16日,马士基5月26日开航航次报价, 已达到3705美元/FEU,较5月12日的报价上涨了96%。有业内人士表示,按照预测,美航线的"爆舱"将 持续至7月下旬。若美线持续出现大规模抢运现象,船公司或将从欧线抽调运力,加剧欧线供应端的紧 张局面,进而推动欧线运价上涨。 据报道,由于美国总统特朗普的关税措施阻碍了贸易,5月初,美国最繁忙的集装箱枢纽洛杉矶港的入 境货运量暴跌了30%。洛杉矶港口执行董事Gene Seroka指出,由于其他国家采取报复性关税作为回应, 尤其是对美国农产品和制成品征收报复性关税,4月份出口货运量连续第五个月下降。上个月达成的"贸 易休战"可能有助于扭转部分低迷局面。Seroka表示,其结果可能是6月和7月货运量上升,因为进口商 将在"极高"关税期间存放在仓库的库存转移出去。 现货运价方面,目前5月下 ...
集运欧线数据日报-20250410
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) opened low and fluctuated, with the 06 contract closing at 1704.7 points, down 6.57%. Most shipping companies' freight rates in the first half of April continued the quotes at the end of March, with a slight increase in the second half. The freight rates in April tend to stabilize, and the average price of a 40 - foot container in the 16th week was around $2300. Some shipping companies have announced their online quotes for May, with the quotes for 40 - foot containers ranging from $2337 to $4545. The weekly average capacity put into service by shipping companies in May exceeds 300,000 TEU, and the rate - increase efforts of each shipping company vary. The market had expectations for the upcoming traditional peak season in the second quarter, but under the uncertainty of high tariffs, shipping companies may start a price - cut game to preserve more profits rather than betting on the peak - season demand, and the expected peak - season node may be postponed or the expected difference may drop to zero. Trump's latest tariff policy "U - turn" announced a 90 - day delay in equivalent tariffs for most countries, which may lead to short - term emotional repair. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' subsequent capacity regulation and the progress of rate increases in May [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest (Unilateral) | Long - Position Holdings (Top 20 Members) | Short - Position Holdings (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Position (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2504 | 1491 | - 1.37 | 556 | 1509 | 1123 | 1264 | - 141 | | EC2506 | 1704.7 | - 6.57 | 86722 | 34705 | 20734 | 19291 | 1443 | | EC2508 | 1703.2 | - 8.18 | 34648 | 28839 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | EC2510 | 1275.8 | - 3.44 | 18080 | 16196 | - | - | - | | EC2512 | 1455.2 | - 4.13 | 3509 | 3554 | - | - | - | | EC2602 | 1295.8 | - 4.05 | 2938 | 2752 | - | - | - | | Total | - | - | 146453 | 87555 | 21857 | 20555 | 1302 | [1] 3.2 Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Index | Latest Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Index (Weekly) - SCFIS (Points) | 1422.42 | - 3.5% | 1473.56 | - 2.2% | 1506.17 | - 6.5% | | SCFI ($/TEU) | 1336 | 1.4% | 1318 | 0.9% | 1306 | - 2.7% | | Spot Freight Rates (Daily) - TCI (20GP) ($/TEU) | 1660 | 0.0% | 1660 | 0.0% | 1660 | 3.7% | | Spot Freight Rates (Daily) - TCI (40GP) ($/FEU) | 2737 | 0.0% | 2737 | 0.0% | 2737 | 8.7% | | Basis Spread (Points) | - | - | - | - | - | 62.3 | [1] 3.3 Spot Market Data - **Capacity and Utilization**: The capacity put into service on the Asia - Europe route is 489,797 TEU, a decrease of 1153 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 2.4%. For different types of container ships (17000TEU +, 12000 - 16999TEU, 8000 - 11999TEU), the idle capacity ratios are 3.2%, 0.6%, and 2.7% respectively [4] - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships is 13.95 knots. The speeds of 17000TEU + and 12000 - 16999TEU container ships are 15.7 and 15.3 knots respectively [4] - **Capacity at Port**: The capacity at Rotterdam Port is 229,100 TEU, at Hamburg Port is 98,200 TEU, and at Singapore Port is 335,300 TEU [4] - **Route - Bypass Situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 8, the north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal is 2, and the south - bound traffic volume is 1 [4] - **Charter Rates**: The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU container ships are $106,000, $73,500, and $33,750 per day respectively [4]