以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：六亿居士 来源：雪球 市场上有一个很常见的讨论： 沪深300都跑不赢，为啥还要做组合？ 以今年为例，因为权益市场走牛，沪深300表现优异，跑赢了不少投资者。如果把沪深300换成创业板指，打击面会更大；如果再进一步，把创业板 指换成通信指数，好嘛，基本全躺。 一个指数能涨这么好，为啥我们还要做分散、做组合？挑最强的指数重仓干，不是更爽？ 如果指数还不够给力，那就干脆挑涨幅榜第一的个股，一年十倍，岂不更香？ 说到这里，相信大伙已经回神了。对着后视镜，人均股神，指哪打哪。但回到一年多以前，当时的情形能稳住持仓就不错了，何谈精准狙击？ 所以，即便我们心里明白，在牛市里分散化组合大概率跑不过纯权益指数，尤其跑不过成长型指数，但依然必须承认一个事实： 纯权益是高波动、 长周期的资产，它的阶段收益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the effectiveness of timing strategies in the A-share market compared to the U.S. stock market, where a buy-and-hold strategy has proven to be successful over the long term [4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Historical data shows that buying the CSI 300 index during undervalued phases results in a 100% chance of achieving positive returns over five years, with a 37.56% probability of achieving an annualized return of 10% or more [5]. - In contrast, buying during overvalued phases guarantees losses over the same period, highlighting the importance of valuation in investment decisions [5]. - For the S&P 500, the data indicates that regardless of the valuation phase, there is a high probability of achieving positive returns, with 98.05% success in undervalued phases and 81.45% in overvalued phases [6]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - The article discusses the complexity of multi-asset allocation strategies, emphasizing the need for a portfolio that can withstand extreme market conditions while achieving long-term investment goals [7]. - It suggests two approaches to improve investment outcomes: increasing the win rate through diversification of uncorrelated assets and engaging in more investment opportunities to approach statistical results [8]. Group 3: Market Indicators - Current market strength indicators show a short-term strength at 52, indicating a mid-range state, while the long-term strength is at 90, suggesting that most stocks are in a long-term upward trend [10]. - The overall market sentiment is described as not overly aggressive, following some recent adjustments, which supports a strategy of stable holding [11].