以下文章来源于府库 ，作者David 府库 . 规划投资理财，温暖幸福生活 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 府库 来源：雪球 前面一段时间咱们查阅了很多资料，得到了一个相对有共识的结论，是在A股择时有效性是比较强的，而美股择时比较难，买入并持有的策略长期 下来也很不错。 | | | 实验: 不同估值状态下买入沪深300 并持有 5 年 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 估值状态 | 年化收益率 >= 0% | 年化收益率 >= 5% | 年化收益率 >= 8% | 年化收益率 >= 10% | | 低估阶段买入 | 100.00% | 86.02% | 63.41% | 37.56% | | 中估阶段买入 | 78.24% | 34.28% | 10.95% | 0.14% | | 高估阶段买入 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 数据范围:2013/4/8-2023/9/28,最后一次投入在2018/9/28;数据来源:Wind ...

专题：北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 昼夜在此刻达成微妙的平衡，暑热与寒凉在天地间悄然交割。秋分如同一杆天平，一端盛着丰饶的收 获，一端载着沉静的期许。 万物皆有时，进退皆有度，投资也是如此，需顺势而为，做到恰如其分。建信基金《投资正当"时"》第 30话，看看秋分给我们带来了哪些投资思考。 1、"三秋"大忙时，投资巧耕耘 秋分正是秋收、秋耕、秋种"三秋"大忙的时候，当棉花吐絮，农田里迎来了收获的好时机，同时，人们 抢晴耕翻土地，适时早播油菜、冬麦、冬马铃薯等作物。 二级债基指数近20年走势 数据来源：WIND，截至2025年9月5日。指数数据仅供参考，不作为任何投资建议或收益暗示。指 数过往涨幅不预示其未来表现，也不代表跟踪该指数的指数基金未来业绩。） 定投：不纠结择时，更从容地布局 在最近的市场行情中，我们除了有收获的喜悦，其实也需要适时巧耕耘。 经过前期快速拉升之后，A股短期波动可能所有放大，但这或许也有助于投资者适时布局。那么，当下 该如何进场"播种"？ 固收+：既避免踏空，也缓解恐高 股市大涨之际，不少投资者跃跃欲试，但行情好并不完全等于收益好，大涨急跌、频繁买卖中可能回报 并 ...

最近博格在私域(XQ)里发了征集稿，毕竟私域已经运营快10年了。 要求：不限时间，不限字数，不限金额 主要是不同时点加入私域的朋友，一起聊聊投资感受，也是对自己投资的一个回顾总结。 投稿人：卡卡（化名），以下为投稿内容，所有内容没有作任何修改。 大概是15、16年吧，我还在读研究生。 知乎日报里看到了XX老师写的投资理财相关文章，文章中用简单的模型量化了投资开始时间点、投资收益率对一个人财富的巨大影响，让我感 受到人力资本增值的不可持续性和投资理财的重要性。这算是我的投资理财启蒙了，之后我积极学习各类投资理财知识，对躺着赚钱、复利奇 迹、定投十年赚十倍等表述乐此不疲。 虽然后来证明想通过投资暴富真的很难，但这段时间还算有体系的学习为我后续的投资生涯提供了很大助力。 16年2月我第一次试水偏股基金。 定投了两支基金，一支是XX合润，一支是XX沪深300，用了支付宝智能定投策略，根据500日均线低了多投，高了少投。大概10个月赚了百分之 20左右清仓了。 --------------------------------- | 买入产品 | 兴全合润分级混合 > | | --- | --- | | 买入金额 ● | ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of developing good habits during holidays, particularly focusing on exercise as a means of long-term health benefits, similar to investment strategies like dollar-cost averaging [6][14][15] - It suggests starting with low-barrier exercises at home, such as using the Nintendo Switch with the Ring Fit Adventure game, which can be a family-friendly option [9] - For those looking for cost-effective home workouts, it recommends various workout videos, with difficulty levels ranging from beginner to advanced, and highlights the importance of consistency in achieving fitness goals [10][11][12] Group 2 - The article discusses the value of watching films and series during holidays for relaxation, mentioning specific shows and their relevance to investment principles, such as caution and strategic thinking [20][25] - It provides a list of recommended shows, including domestic and international series, and emphasizes the importance of selecting content that can provide both entertainment and insights into business dynamics [19][26] - The article also suggests efficient viewing methods, such as watching at increased speeds or utilizing edited clips to save time while still gaining valuable insights [36][38][41] Group 3 - The article highlights the significance of reading as a means of knowledge acquisition, recommending a systematic approach to evaluating books based on their quality and relevance [44][46] - It lists several highly-rated books related to investment and personal development, emphasizing their potential to enhance understanding of financial markets and personal finance strategies [50][53][56] - The author encourages sharing recommendations for books and films that can be beneficial during the holiday period, fostering a community of knowledge sharing [61]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation for families to optimize their wealth management and investment returns [3] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current market environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and inflation [3] - Diversification across various asset classes is highlighted as a key strategy to mitigate risks and enhance returns [3] Group 2: Company Analysis - Companies that adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences are more likely to succeed in the long term [3] - The article discusses specific sectors that are expected to perform well, including technology and renewable energy, due to their growth potential [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural rotation, with growth styles recently underperforming while value styles are gaining traction. This indicates a potential shift in investment strategies and opportunities in different sectors [5][7][22]. Market Performance - The market index showed a decline during the day, reaching a low of 4.3 stars but rebounded to 4.2 stars by the end of the trading session [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks experienced a smaller decline compared to mid and small-cap stocks, which saw more significant drops [3]. - Growth styles faced a more considerable downturn, while value styles overall increased [4][7]. Sector Analysis - The banking index saw an overall increase, although it had previously reached a high valuation before correcting to a normal valuation [8][9][10]. - The recent market structure favors active selection strategies, as evidenced by the slight increase in active selection portfolios [12][13]. Market Trends - The market is characterized by structural bull markets where certain sectors lead while others lag, with each bull market cycle featuring different leading sectors [14]. - Bull markets are not continuous; they often exhibit patterns of rapid increases followed by corrections, indicating the need for patience from investors [15][16]. - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have shown 2-3 cycles of significant short-term increases followed by consolidation or corrections [17][18]. Investment Strategy - For investment strategies, the index-enhanced advisory portfolio has returned to normal valuation, suggesting a pause in new investments while maintaining existing holdings until a low valuation is reached again [21]. - The active selection portfolio continues normal investments, while the monthly salary treasure portfolio, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is recommended for stable market participation [44][45]. Personal Pension Investment - The pension index funds, specifically the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend, have returned to normal valuations, leading to a pause in new investments until they reach undervalued levels again [31][32]. - The performance of these pension index funds has shown profitability, with the CSI A500 up by approximately 20% and the CSI Dividend up by about 4% over the recent months [37].

Market Overview - The stock market showed resilience recently, with large-cap stocks declining while small-cap stocks experienced slight gains [2][5] - The value style saw a slight decline, while the growth style has been strong this year, showing significant increases [3][4] - The Hong Kong stock market also opened lower but rebounded slightly by the close, with technology stocks leading the gains [5][6] Bond Market Insights - The pure bond market has faced a bear market, with long-term pure bonds retreating by 3% and 30-year government bonds down by 5.6% [7][8] - The current yield for 10-year government bonds has rebounded to approximately 1.86%, which is still not very attractive but close to a reasonable level [11] - The impact on fixed income products, such as monthly salary treasure, remains minimal, and these products have seen new highs this year [12][13] Investment Strategies - The investment strategy for the index-enhanced advisory portfolio has returned to normal valuation, leading to a pause in regular investments while holding onto existing positions [14] - The active selection advisory portfolio continues normal investments, and there is an increase in investment for the monthly salary treasure, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds [14] - The monthly salary treasure features a "low buy high sell" strategy, providing a stable way to participate in the market with lower volatility [14] Pension Fund Insights - The pension index fund investment has been ongoing, with the current focus on the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend indices, both of which have returned to normal valuation [21][24] - The performance of these indices has been mixed, with the CSI A500 showing a 20% profit and the CSI Dividend around 5% [35] - The strategy emphasizes patience in waiting for undervalued opportunities, with a long-term investment perspective [39][40] Valuation Metrics - A detailed valuation table for various indices and funds has been provided, highlighting metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios, and dividend yields [43] - The valuation metrics indicate that certain indices are currently undervalued, while others are at normal or high valuations, guiding investment decisions [49]

Core Viewpoint - The article narrates the investment journey of an individual who transitioned from a novice to a more knowledgeable investor through learning and adopting a structured asset allocation strategy known as the "Three-Fund Method" [2][3][4]. Investment Journey - The individual began investing in 2019 by purchasing a healthcare index fund through a bank's financial advisor, which resulted in a significant loss of 45% on an initial investment of 120,000 yuan by July 2022 [5][6]. - This experience highlighted the risks associated with single-asset investments and prompted a search for a more balanced and stable investment approach [5]. Introduction to Three-Fund Method - The individual discovered the "Three-Fund Method" during a period of confusion, which emphasizes the importance of asset allocation and risk diversification [7]. - The method categorizes assets into three main classes: stocks, bonds, and commodities, allowing for effective risk management and stable returns [7][8]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The individual developed a personal asset allocation strategy, termed the "Stable 5 Portfolio," consisting of 80% bonds, 10% stocks, and 10% commodities, aimed at achieving over 5% annual returns while limiting drawdowns to within 2% [9][10]. - This allocation strategy focuses on stability, with bonds providing a steady income, stocks offering growth potential, and commodities serving as a hedge against inflation [9][10]. Family Support and Trust - As the individual's investment philosophy matured, the positive results began to influence family financial decisions, leading to increased trust and support from family members regarding investment strategies [11]. - The individual emphasizes the importance of patience and consistent investment practices, which have contributed to a growing investment portfolio exceeding one million yuan [11]. Key Insights - The individual stresses the importance of understanding one's own financial situation and risk tolerance before making investment decisions, advocating for a cautious approach to investing [14][15]. - The article concludes with a reminder that investing is a long-term endeavor, and the essence of investment lies in transferring current resources to future value [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article narrates the investment journey of a 90s female investor who transitioned from speculative trading in a bull market to a disciplined asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of systematic investment approaches for wealth growth [1][2]. Investment Journey - The investor began her financial journey in 2016 during a bear market, influenced by simplified investment strategies like "asset allocation" and "regular investment" [3]. - Her initial experiences included significant gains in the booming renewable energy sector, followed by a painful loss of 100,000 yuan, which prompted a shift towards a more structured investment approach [4][5]. Investment Philosophy - The investor's philosophy evolved to prioritize risk management and long-term stability over short-term gains, leading to the adoption of a diversified asset allocation strategy [5][6]. - The "Permanent Portfolio" strategy, which balances four asset classes to mitigate risks across different economic cycles, became a cornerstone of her investment approach [5][6]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The current asset allocation consists of 45% equities, 25% bonds, 15% gold, and 15% cash, tailored to her risk tolerance and investment goals [6][7]. - Specific fund selections include a mix of domestic and international equities, bonds, and gold, with a focus on low-volatility and dividend-paying assets [8][10]. Performance Metrics - The investor's portfolio has shown a cumulative return of approximately 11% since its inception, with a maximum drawdown of 3.94%, significantly lower than the benchmark index [11][12]. - The strategy emphasizes liquidity and risk control, allowing for stable growth while meeting daily financial needs [11]. Personal Insights - The investor highlights the psychological benefits of a stable investment strategy, which alleviates anxiety related to market fluctuations and enhances confidence in making significant life decisions [13]. - Key advice for new investors includes using only disposable income for investments, abandoning the notion of quick wealth, and focusing on improving personal skills and knowledge for long-term benefits [14].

Group 1: Core Concepts of Fund Investment - Selecting funds is the first step in investment and is crucial for determining returns. Beginners often fall into the trap of "buying high and selling low" or blindly following popular funds, which can lead to unsatisfactory results. The core of fund selection is to assess the balance between risk and return, focusing on four key indicators [1][2][3][4]. Group 2: Key Indicators for Fund Selection - The historical performance of the fund manager is essential, with a focus on long-term returns over 3 to 5 years rather than short-term rankings. A fund manager with a 5-year annualized return of 15% and lower drawdowns during market declines indicates a stable investment style suitable for long-term holding [3]. - The fund's establishment time and rating are important; funds established for over a year with ratings above three stars (e.g., Morningstar rating) are preferable. A fund with a 5-year history and a five-star rating is generally more reliable than newly established funds [4]. - Maximum drawdown reflects the fund's decline from its historical peak to its lowest point, serving as a key risk measure. Beginners should aim for funds with a maximum drawdown below 15%, especially in equity funds, as drawdown control directly impacts the holding experience [5]. - Standard deviation measures the volatility of the fund's net value. A lower standard deviation indicates more stable returns. For instance, if two funds have the same annualized return of 10%, but one has a standard deviation of 15% and the other 10%, the latter is preferable for reducing holding anxiety [6]. Group 3: Fund Purchase Strategies - A one-time purchase is suitable for low-risk funds such as money market and bond funds, which have lower risk and smaller return fluctuations. Investors can use idle funds to invest in money market funds for better returns than savings accounts, while bond funds can be part of long-term asset allocation [9]. - Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is an effective strategy for stock and index funds, allowing investors to spread their purchases over time to reduce timing risk. For example, investing a fixed amount monthly in an index fund helps lower the average cost during market fluctuations [10]. - Smart DCA adjusts investment amounts based on market conditions, such as using moving averages to determine when to increase or decrease investments. This method can enhance returns by accumulating more shares at lower prices and reducing investments at higher prices [11]. Group 4: Fund Selling Strategies - Setting a target return for selling is a straightforward method. For instance, if an investor aims for a 10% return, they should sell when the fund's net value reaches that target. This method is simple and suitable for risk-averse investors, but care should be taken to avoid setting unrealistic targets [14]. - Selling at resistance levels involves analyzing fund charts to identify recent highs. If the fund's net value approaches a resistance level and shows signs of decline, it may be prudent to sell [15]. - For index funds, monitoring the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio can indicate overvaluation. If the PE ratio is significantly above historical averages, it may be time to consider selling to avoid potential corrections [16]. Group 5: Overall Investment Philosophy - Successful fund investment requires a methodical approach focusing on selection, purchase, and sale. Investors should prioritize fund manager performance, fund age, drawdown, and standard deviation when selecting funds, choose appropriate buying strategies based on risk tolerance, and establish clear selling criteria [17].